On December 14 2012 00:18 DragoonTT wrote:On December 13 2012 21:32 justiceknight wrote:On December 13 2012 18:35 IntelEM wrote:
Groups as of now are:
A: Eclypsia/Millenium, SK Telecom T1, Fnatic, mousesports
B: MeetYourMakers, CJ Entus, CLG.EU, Team ALTERNATE
ESG = SKT1 or....?
isnt ESG = Reapered's team?
Yes and yes.
I'm excited to see how CJ and SKT do against top-tier european teams. SKT has a good shot, simply because it's very hard to prepare for them (little material and tendency to make ridiculously great picks). CJ might have it harder - their weakness is pretty clear now (Longpanda on anything that's not Jax or camped even if Jax, inSec getting shut down) and teams have lots of material from OGN LTC. Both teams will face travel complications (e.g. jetlag) and experience their first trip to europe. I'm not sure about the setting - will there be spectators, booths etc? Lack of booths coupled with spectators present might be another problem.
Well, my predictions:
7-8. Mousesports, Alternate:
- (ex-)Mousesports, once hailed as one of the most promising teams in europe, has been a consistent disappointment on the international level, concluding in now being kicked from the organisation and playing their last tournament under the mouz flag. Don't see them going far.
- Alternate hasn't been doing well lately and, with them being mainly solo queue allstars, will probably be handicapped by having already acclimated to S3. Originally wanted to place them higher, but then remembered how they got manhandled by fnatic (once) and Copenhagen Wolves (thrice) at THOR Open.
5-6. Millenium, MeetYourMakers:
- the new Millenium lineup, while stacked with experienced and skilled players, will probably need some time to get comfortable playing together. Synergies between Support and AD/Jungler and Top have to be built. Players like Tabzz, Creaton and Angush have huge potential, and we might see them score an upset, but I wouldn't count on it.
- MeetYourMakers have recently delivered good results on the European circuit, competing with the big guns for those coveted qualification spots, and winning IEM Singapore (admittedly the weakest LoL LAN event in recent memory). Yet, the level at Cologne should be just a little too high for the polish team. They should be able to defeat recently-slumping aTn and can maybe score an upset against an underprepared favourite, especially CJ, but in most cases, MYM should place third in their group and therefore miss the playoffs.
4. CJ Entus:
A solid mid-tier korean team. Currently 2-3 in OGN TLC, with losses to both NaJin teams and Azubu Blaze. Can sometimes put out good performances against S-tier teams (game 1 against NaJin Sword) or, if their weaknesses are exploited correctly, get absolutely dominated. CJ Entus highly depends on their jungler, inSec, and will fall apart once inSec gets shut down. A potential weak spot is their top lane, where Longpanda looks uncomfortable when a) camped and b) not on Jax. Yet, their mechanical skill and will to take strategical risks (e.g. off-beat picks such as Shaco or Ziggs) should allow them to survive their group. I don't expect them to beat CLG.EU, so their key match will be against MYM. Good research and the effects of traveling on CJ could determine the fate of CJ in the tournament.
Past the group phase, fnatic or SKT T1 will probably be the next opponent, which could well be the end of the road for CJ - they looked lost against SKT T1 (then ESG) during the qualifier finals once ESG had them figured out, and fnatic's aggressive playstyle plus powerful top lane (similar to NaJin Sword, who 2-0'd CJ yesterday) should deal with CJ as well. In a potential third-place match, possible opponents would be again SKT T1, fnatic and CLG.EU, none of which I'd give CJ the upper hand against.
3. fnatic:
fnatic has been on a roll lately, winning Dreamhack against CLG.EU, taking an astounding second place to WE at IPL 5 and then convincingly winning THOR Open without dropping a map. Unless a major upset takes place, fnatic's progession at IEM Cologne will largely hinge on their group-stage Bo1 match against SKT1. Beat the Koreans and their funky style, and the next opponent will probably be CJ Entus - a very winnable matchup. A loss to Reapered and his new team would possibly pit them against their european rivals in CLG.EU, maybe the most anticipated match of the tournament, and one any side could win. Well-rested, well-prepared and our for revenge, I'd give CLG.EU the edge this time around, sending fnatic to the third place match to meet CJ.
2. SKT T1:
Reapered is back in the spotlight, and he's brought a new team with him. Picked up by Korean esports giants SKT T1, they will make their first trip to Europe, and will probably bear the hope for a korean victory. While a new team, they convincingly won the Korean qualifier against Team OP (former Xenics Storm) and CJ Entus fielding exciting strategies. Unpredictable and highly skilled mechanically, they should be able to defeat M and mouz handily if traveling isn't too impactful. The match against fnatic should be close, but due to the Bo1 format and SKT T1 being relatively unknown (in relation to their skill), I'd give them the advantage. Any team but CLG.EU should be a decently easy win during the semis. Should everything go as I expect, SKT T1 will face off against CLG.EU in the finals. This would be another match hard to call, but with CLG.EU largely unimpacted by traveling, accustomed to playing on LAN conditions and probably well-prepared, they should take the series.
1. CLG.EU:
CLG.EU had a fairly disappointing last month, at least from their standards. Losing DH to fnatic (an event they expected to win without a lot of trouble) and only finishing as the #3 EU team at IPL5 (5/6th for CLG.EU, M5 ranked fourth, fnatic second) must have been disappointing. However, I expect them to enter IEM Cologne well-rested (finally back to Europe and at home after a spell at the CLG gaming house in America), well-prepared and with a thirst for vengeance. Even though a Bo1 round robin format is always dangerous, they should make it thorugh the groups with little problems. Their whole tournament hinges on whether they can finally edge out fnatic, and how their style fares against the newly formed SKT team. We might see a lot of strategical variety from CLG.EU (as announced by Krepo (?) at IPL5) to prevent teams from solely setting up to beat CLG.EU lategame. If CLG.EU is on top of their game, they enter IEM Cologne as definite title contenders, and I expect them to win, edging out both fnatic and SKT T1 in close 2-1 matches on their way to the crown.
EPT
