EPTNewbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 39
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain17959 Posts
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
Nighty night fellow townies! <3 Fuck you scum bastards. | ||
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vonKlaust
Sweden158 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 17 2012 08:13 vonKlaust wrote: Haha, I really like the dramatic style in Hiro's last post. If this was a murder mystery movie it would be a super exciting one. I have actually been thinking about reading closer into Acros filter. I have had a feeling that I've been following him a tad too blindly. We'll see what happens. Now I really need to sleep. Nighty night fellow townies! <3 Fuck you scum bastards. LOL. I guess you could ask for the right to edit that, it's a bit... against the rules...? Sigh. I'm all out of ideas right now. Maybe the night shot will help a bit, but then it's already almost 50% share of us being Mafia. Maybe the Detective will make a lucky hit... Finding just ONE Mafia would make it so much easier to figure this all out. I guess yomi is Mafia after all? Although I can't really blame him for suspecting HiroPro - I and Acrofales did the same. Maybe I can think of something to contribute yet later. Good night! | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 17 2012 07:57 funcmode wrote: Well, I've stated twice now that I suspect imallinson quite highly and he's had a couple of chances to address my suspicions but said nothing. Maybe it's because he doesn't think my opinion's are worth much so it's better for him to just ignore them than risk putting himself in the spotlight, though I guess there's potentially town-mentality in that approach too. Can you explain your reasoning for suspecting me beyond my (up until recently and beyond my control) lurking and the fact that I thought Dittert might be townie after all (though I still maintained high suspicion and many others shared the same opinion at one point or another)? You have said you are suspicious of me but not really why. I can't respond unless I have something specific to respond to. As for you I have a completely neutral read you haven't posted enough for me to get a good read yet. | ||
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Dittert
United States97 Posts
I might as well start writing up my post for D3 so you all can ignore it again... Sigh. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 17 2012 09:54 Dittert wrote: Two times I come home from work and two times I see an idiotic bandwagon that results in the town lynching another townie. I might as well start writing up my post for D3 so you all can ignore it again... Sigh. Here you go again... It wasn't idiotic, it looked like the best Mafia read in my eyes. And had he been Mafia, his flip would have also heavily implicated you and imallinson. Of course since he wasn't (in hindsight, which you seem to love), this doesn't reveal too much about player relations. All I can think of is that yomi is more suspicious, I am more suspicious, Acrofales is more suspicious. imallinson is less suspicious, Dittert is less suspicious. I guess HiroPro was just being genuinely AFK and arrived to the thread at convenient timings for himself. OR he was lurking and trying to hide his role (which I don't like at all, since he could get easily Vigi shot at night for example). However, one thing occurred to me: is there a real reason for myself, yomi or Acrofales to push for HiroPro if we'd be Mafia and Dittert town? In that case, Dittert was already on the road to being lynched, but we noticed a possible connection between HiroPro and Dittert and decided to lynch HiroPro instead. Me & yomi as a Mafia team doesn't really make sense either, we have been opposed whole game even while the discussion focus has been elsewhere. In addition, nobody really stepped in to defend either of us, which makes me think this could have been a heated/vocal town & town argument. Mafia & town is still somewhat possible, though. I'll read through Acrofales's filter a bit later to determine if there is sense in HiroPro's accusations. I'll also have to read vonKlaust's filter. I think he's town at the moment, but he has kind of avoided attention so far and followed the town "consensus" quite eagerly. Funcmode can't be read very effectively yet, but his first analysis post was... A bit lacking, and possibly just meant for continued flying under the radar. I should also read the filters of KharadBanar and Dittert again while at it. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain17959 Posts
I have thought about yesterday and realised that a couple of my assumptions about mafia behaviour are probably too strong. I have been focusing on the mafia agenda of getting townies lynched. I reread Incognito's general guide and realised I have been focusing too much on trying to find mafia defending each other. That may not even have been necessary. Lets take another look at the D2 events. The first thing that happened was that Dittert came under pressure. Regardless of whether Dittert is town, or scum, there was plenty of time in the day for mafia to turn that around. HiroPro posted his suspicions of Xatalos. At the time there were two possible explanations: HiroPro was town and convinced he had a scumread on Xatalos, or HiroPro was scum and pushing Xatalos for his own agenda. We now know that the former was the case. The second event was that the suspicions of town moved from Dittert to Xatalos and the town went completely silent. This seems to me to lead to one of three inevitable conclusions: 1. Xatalos is town and mafia was content to just let the lynch happen. 2. Xatalos is scum and mafia was hoping someone like me stepped in... or were waiting a little bit longer to do it themselves. 3. Xatalos and Acrofales are scumbuddies. Now, I happen to know that the third scenario is false, but feel free to convince yourselves of that fact. I'll be here to answer all your questions and accusations. I thought I had the game completely figured out, but I clearly don't and other people's opinions are most welcome. That leaves the former two as possibilities. I am slightly inclined toward the former, because the second situation implies a LOT of risk. The third event of the day was that I posted this reasoning, and drew the conclusion that HiroPro and Dittert were a possible scum axis. This was clearly wrong, but I still think my reasoning about Xatalos is probably right. Looking over the scum guides and the two games I have played as scum, mafia really dislike to put their opinion out there. There are LOTS of things I don't like about Xatalos' play, but there is one thing he has undeniably done: he is flapping his mouth about every little thing he can think of in this game. He has either improved his scumplay IMMENSELY since GoT mafia, or he is town. I am not normally a fan of meta-arguments, but his play is so different from in GoT, that he is either a chameleon, or town. That leaves the last little bit of the game yesterday. Everybody jumped on the HiroPro bandwagon because of my convincing arguments and my rather hastily thrown together case (and other people's cases too). The only conclusion I can draw from that at the moment (I promise more in my nightly reads post) is that HiroPro did not play his town role particularly well. That was the real eye opener to me: I have been using reasoning and logic to analyse others' playstyle and rational approach to this game. I have been focusing too hard on what people are saying and not when they are saying it. I have some new suspicions, that I promise to post in my nightly reads. However, before the night ends, I want to do something I was actually rather opposed to. I want to call out a possible vigilante to please shoot Dittert. Regardless of his alignment, he is not helping town. Here is my case on why Dittert needs to be shot, regardless of his alignment. Because I am completely and utterly null on Dittert, I will assume the worst case scenario, which is that he is town. Tomorrow we will be at lylo. That means we lynch scum, or lose. This, as someone (willz, I think) pointed out, is regardless of whether we shoot a townie or not. Conclusion: the vig MUST shoot tonight, and imho he should shoot Dittert. Dittert has not been contributing. He has been attacked and defended a number of times by different people, making him a good source of information. However, most importantly is the vote count. If we are onto scum tomorrow, scum will NOT vote for him. Assuming all scum is alive, that leaves 3 votes on a townie. Dittert has guaranteed his absence from the voting the last two days. His last post on D1 was at 22:54 (9 hours before the deadline) and his last post on D2 was at 00:53 (7 hours before the deadline). Both times town switched in the last few hours before the deadline and Dittert was not around to comment, steer us back on track or agree and vote with town. That means that if we find scum after Dittert has left to work, it is one less vote to count on switching, leaving it 4 town votes and 3 scum votes: the exact same situation as if we shoot him. If we shoot someone ELSE who turns out to be town, that's 3 town votes and 3 scum votes. Ergo, a race against the clock to get our votes on scum before they vote for the townie (or blindly following whoever Dittert votes for, which I am unwilling to do). So, vig, either be 100% certain you are shooting scum, or shoot Dittert: 1. He has a good chance of being scum (50/50 in my book at the moment, which is remarkably one of my best scum reads: my confidence has been damaged since my completely wrong read yesterday and am in the process of reevaluating) 2. He would give town some good info by flipping 3. He is a liability to town due to his prolonged absense around the deadline (timezones suck, I know). | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
If I can use the fact that I know I'm town as a part of my analysis (like you did), that means I don't really believe you are Mafia. Why risk your credibility with pushing the vote to HiroPro (whom you would know to be town) instead of just letting me get lynched and go after HiroPro next. I can't see any kind of a Mafia motivation for your actions on Day 2 (unless we would be both Mafia, and I know that to be false). Thus, it means HiroPro's last will was completely pointless and I'm going to ignore it for now. Also, it means my town flip would make you like 0,1% chance of Mafia in the general discussion. Dittert... I agree he would be the "safest" Vigi shot, in case there is a Vigi who previously saved his shot. Okay chance of being Mafia (although less likely with HiroPro's town flip) and the smallest loss with a town flip. I'll also make a big analysis post later under the assumption that Acrofales is town (most pro-town play + the reasons I mentioned earlier in this post). I'm quite certain Acrofales will be shot now that the Doctor is dead, but it might also be KharadBanar or even me (although not as likely). Definitely not Dittert (if he is town, Mafia would love to keep him alive the most of all). So I, Acrofales and KharadBanar should give our best reads before deadline in case we get shot next. I don't have any solid top lynch read after my perfect-feeling theory got crushed, but maybe I can notice the signs of Mafia better after this: it's not necessarily defending each other that much, but quietly spreading suspicion and staying out of suspicion yourself. I'll try looking at possible connections too, though (maybe not directly defending, but not arguing directly with each other and reluctance to vote/bandwagon each other). | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17959 Posts
On April 17 2012 07:59 HiroPro wrote: The Last Will and Testament of HiroPro Given that this is the last will of a townie, I think it is only fair I address it. Lynch Xatalos. Easy step. Obviously you do that first thing in the daytime. Don't listen to anything he has to say. Don't address him or tell him anything; just lynch him. I don't disagree that Xatalos needs another look at. I am not convinced he's town, but as I said in my previous post, I find it very unlikely that he his scum, given the complete lack of people willing to defend him from Hiro's accusations, which was quite a good case. While I was not expecting a chainsaw defense, I would have expected someone to refer back to Dittert and why he was so scummy once the Xatalos bandwagon was going nicely. The problem with a Xatalos scum is thus not that he is unscummy, it's that he seems to be playing alone. Add that to his completely different meta and I am for now willing to believe Xata is town. DO NOT LISTEN TO WHAT ACROFALES SAYS. I know many of you have Acrofales as a very strong town read. I don't; Acrofales has been a scum read in my notes since day 1. I don't have the time to fully outline a case against Acrofales, but I'll try to summarize my thoughts here. Read through his filter closely. Please do. I agree that my analysis on HiroPro was completely and utterly wrong. I found a group of 5 players in which I thought it was likely the scum was hiding (I was wrong in discarding Dittert, so it was actually 6 players). I may have gotten confirmation bias, or I just had a completely faulty read on HiroPro because his playstyle is quite erratic. In either case, I made a mistake and realise that my pushing the case on a townie makes me suspect. I don't want to be blindly sheeped. I want everybody here to play the game actively, posting their reads and analyses, asking each other questions and trying to hunt scum. There was quite a lack of scumhunting in D2. Acrofales does not post actual analysis; instead what he does is call out certain people who are not posting and then proceed to make "connections" between certain people who he will arbitrarily label as scummy. Huh? I don't think you have understood my posts at ALL if that is what you think. If you don't understand the logic in one of my posts, I am happy to explain it, but I have so far posted exactly what I am understanding of people's play and motivations. There is definitely nothing "arbitrary" about it. Nevertheless, I am not going to argue that my non-arbitrariness is townie. I make very deliberate posts regardless of my alignment. The townie part comes from the fact that rather than searching for the player who I can most easily label as scum and focusing on his bad behaviour, as I do as scum, I have been actively analysing ALL players in the game and trying to find which is scummiest, even if the case is not an easy one to make. By basing all of his cases on these "connections", Acrofales avoids taking responsibility for votes and reads. Everything is already set out for him and indisputable. Au contraire, my dear fellow. I lay out my assumptions and the entire logical reasoning. Everybody can follow it and draw their own conclusions. I would be VERY happy to be discussing this with anyone. I believe my connections make sense, but my logic is NOT infallible as imallison kindly pointed out. I would love for people to poke holes in it. It should also not be taken ALONE. If you look at the way I used the information: I analysed the connections, drew my conclusions and went over people's filters to see who I thought was most likely to be scum. Unfortunately, I was completely wrong on that account. And with me, at least 3 other townies (7 votes, of which 3 may or may not be scum). These connection posts do not help town; all they do is get people speculating on which people are sided with certain other people and thus must be either both town or both mafia. It distracts from actual reads and scum-hunting. I once again disagree. Voting analysis to find connections is a valid style of scumhunting and has been applied successfully in quite a variety of mafia games here, although it works best after actually finding a mafia. It has a high degree of speculation, but lets be honest, so does textual analysis of someone's filter. Now I know I may not convince you, so here is people discussing it on mafiascum: clicky. I do think that my assumptions may be wrong. I can think of some reasons to voteswitch as mafia, if the two targets are both innocent. This guy's role is the deceiver. + Show Spoiler [meme] + ![[image loading]](http://edge.alluremedia.com.au/m/k/2010/11/phoenix-wright-objection.jpg) I have no clear reads on the third mafia member (and the small reads I can post on the people I have not mentioned are not worth posting). Good luck searching for him. If you think there is some sort of connection between myself and Dittert (aka been listening too much to Acrofales/yomi), get rid of that thought. My flip shows absolutely nothing about Dittert - I have no connection whatsoever to him. He is neither strongly town nor strongly mafia in my view. That being said, I have a slight town read on him. Ignore the first 2 days and evaluate him based on what you see in the coming day/night period. DO NOT LYNCH HIM TOMORROW IF FOR SOME REASON YOU THINK HE IS MAFIA (Lynch Xatalos, then Acrofales). DO NOT LYNCH FOR INFORMATION. Focus on what people say, how they say it, and go with your strongest mafia read. I agree we should definitely not lynch for information. I wish you had posted your unprocessed reads, rather than this will, but I just died in SS Mafia and know what it feels like to have not disseminated all the information you had and can understand you were strapped for time. I am sorry I found you scummy, but I still don't see much wrong with my reasoning (except for the factual errors that vK pointed out). | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
However, the following players are under suspicion, myself, Xatalos, Yomi, Dittert. Any of these players being shot would not make sense in Mafia's line of thinking, we are too easy cases to push for a mis-lynch. Acro you better start posting your heart out if you think you're going to be killed off today, as I quote your lovely farewell post to Arctic: On April 15 2012 08:04 Acrofales wrote: ArcticFox: too townie to live, too quiet to get protected. He will be missed. Now people. Lets get scumhunting. ##vote Dittert Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us. There are two explanations for Arctic being shot instead, Mafia assumed there was a medic and Acro would be on the most obvious target, so they switched to target #2 Arctic, or Acro is Mafia and they knew Arctic was either on the right track or the town with the most towncred. Also I find this defense by Xatalos of Acrofales troubling. Especially the DT talk, DT cannot be claimed at this point and proven, Mafia can easily counter-claim, all you're doing is making it easier for the Mafia to bluesnipe, very untownlike. If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.) Don't forget Acrofales and Xatalos were both scum in GoT Mafia (which they won) so they have good experience of what to do as Mafia. They also can play 100% completely opposite of what they did in GoT because of meta arguments. They've both referenced what "Mafia should do" as part of their thinking, and then pointed out how they couldn't possibly be Mafia because they haven't done what "Mafia should do." This is flimsy reasoning, especially for a newbie game, people make mistakes and not optimal play, we've seen that numerous times in this game, trying to defend yourself by saying this is not what Mafia would do (what Xatalos has done) should not be a good defense. Also notice Xatalos trying to discredit HiroPro's last testament and will, even though he didn't manage to finish his thoughts in time, HiroPro was 100% town, and he may have been on to something. Remember what he said, ignore Xatalos and look at Acro's filter. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain17959 Posts
@Willz. I am still on the fence about you. You got active and posted your reads when you were under heavy pressure. Since then you have gone dormant again. Top 3 scum reads please. @KB. I looked over your other Newbie game and you seemed to be a bit more active in D2 there, engaging people in conversation all over the place and more of a leader than a follower, as opposed to this D2. I have gone into a what-if scenario where we have so far been completely wrong in our scumreads and your name pops up on my scumdar. I don't think there is any harm in continuing the analysis and scumhunting in the night this time, because mafia can kill whoever they like as long as they get to manipulate tomorrow's vote. So. Scum top 3 and why. @Xata. While my analysis indicates you're town, your posting has been completely hopeless. Your filter is unreadable and you put far too much stock in speculation about mafia motives. So on the one hand I think you're town, on the other you have some very scummy traits. I would really like a non-waffly post from you clearly stating who you think is scum, who you think is town and why. @funcnode. I liked your play at the end of D2, it was very sensible, but I still don't have a good idea of what you are. Please keep posting. @everybody else. Please be more active. Ask each other questions, post your reads. Don't let mafia hide in inactivity. | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
My biggest question is how is hiro so sure of xat? He seems 1000% sure. I am thinking about this On April 15 2012 08:41 GreYMisT wrote: Doctors and Doctorees are notified of a succsessful protect But nothing is coming to me right now that is really viable. So I trust hiro now obviously since we know he is town and he was dead set on xat and he was my top guy until late last night as well. I'm pretty much stuck on xat atm. | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 18 2012 00:02 yomi wrote: Well my biggest read is xat and I kind of have blinders on for him right now. All I can think about is who his teammates are but I need to take a few steps back and consider others. My biggest question is how is hiro so sure of xat? He seems 1000% sure. I am thinking about this But nothing is coming to me right now that is really viable. So I trust hiro now obviously since we know he is town and he was dead set on xat and he was my top guy until late last night as well. I'm pretty much stuck on xat atm. I think the only information that can really be had from that is that if Hiro had protected Xatalos nothing happened. If Hiro had saved Xatalos he would have been fairly sure he was town (barring a vig shot which seems unlikely). | ||
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
Scum #1: Xatalos I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow. Scum #2: Acrofales Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day. Scum #3 Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities. Dittert: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch. yomi: This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives. vonKlaust: This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3 Funcmode: It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment. Willz: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz Kharad: I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town. So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read): #1: Xatalos (90%) #2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not) #3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17959 Posts
On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote: If you're under the impression you will be shot, feel free to post this night. I completely agree and will be posting actively! However, the following players are under suspicion, myself, Xatalos, Yomi, Dittert. Any of these players being shot would not make sense in Mafia's line of thinking, we are too easy cases to push for a mis-lynch. Acro you better start posting your heart out if you think you're going to be killed off today, as I quote your lovely farewell post to Arctic: Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us. There are two explanations for Arctic being shot instead, Mafia assumed there was a medic and Acro would be on the most obvious target, so they switched to target #2 Arctic, or Acro is Mafia and they knew Arctic was either on the right track or the town with the most towncred. We can in no way shape or form assume Hiro did such a thing. However, scum fearing that a medic would protect me is a plausible reason not to shoot me. I agree that my goodbye post summarised Arctic's death quite succinctly. I cannot prove the second situation is not true unless I die, but the mere fact that situation is in your minds should've made Willz think before posting he posted the rest of his WIFOM. Also I find this defense by Xatalos of Acrofales troubling. Especially the DT talk, DT cannot be claimed at this point and proven, Mafia can easily counter-claim, all you're doing is making it easier for the Mafia to bluesnipe, very untownlike. Agreed about the DT bit. Why are you linking the DT bit to his defense of me, though? If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.) Hrmmm, how about this for a catch 22 scenario. However, this is particularly insidious wifom. It is wifom about stuff that hasn't even happened yet. You are planting the idea, so that if I am not shot, all you have to do is refer back here and say: see, he must be scum. I refuse to wifom your wifom, but suffice it to say this awarded you qutie a few points on my scumometer. Don't forget Acrofales and Xatalos were both scum in GoT Mafia (which they won) so they have good experience of what to do as Mafia. They also can play 100% completely opposite of what they did in GoT because of meta arguments. Bingo, another catch 22. If I (and Xata) were to have the same style as in GoT mafia, we would clearly be mafia: we have the same style. However, by changing our style we are ALSO clearly mafia, because we would totally have changed up our playstyle! The whole point why meta-arguments work is because it is VERY difficult to change your playstyle. In other words: confirmation bias much? They've both referenced what "Mafia should do" as part of their thinking, and then pointed out how they couldn't possibly be Mafia because they haven't done what "Mafia should do." This is flimsy reasoning, especially for a newbie game, people make mistakes and not optimal play, we've seen that numerous times in this game, trying to defend yourself by saying this is not what Mafia would do (what Xatalos has done) should not be a good defense. And another catch 22? If I act townie I am clearly scum, because I am NOT doing anything scummy! The whole point of this game is that mafia does not want to help scumhunt, wants to shit up the thread and wants to stay hidden. That case can be made against Xatalos, but I am finding it harder and harder to read him accurately. Suffice it to say, his playstyle is EXTREMELY different from GoT. He is also only displaying one of the many scum tells: he shits up the thread with useless wifom. Other than that he is (hyper)active and willing to commit to his cases (and makes them. I challenge you to find a single focused case by Xatalos in GoT mafia). Which reminds me, Willz, have you committed to anything yet, this game, except for your erroneous BroodKing case? Willz managed to drop off my scumometer in the whole D2 debacle, but this post just reminded me of why I fingered him as scum in the first place. Thanks! Also notice Xatalos trying to discredit HiroPro's last testament and will, even though he didn't manage to finish his thoughts in time, HiroPro was 100% town, and he may have been on to something. Remember what he said, ignore Xatalos and look at Acro's filter. HiroPro was town, not an oracle. If you and your scumbuddies really manage to convince the town to lynch me, you will see that a townie can still be completely and absolutely 100% wrong: I was on HiroPro and he is about me. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17959 Posts
On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote: My proposal for the scum team: Scum #1: Xatalos I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow. Scum #2: Acrofales Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day. Scum #3 Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities. Dittert: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch. yomi: This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives. vonKlaust: This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3 Funcmode: It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment. Willz: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz Kharad: I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town. So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read): #1: Xatalos (90%) #2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not) #3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting  If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point?At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. | ||
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