EPTall switched from ET to Dimmu outstandingly quickly.
Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII - Page 33
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
all switched from ET to Dimmu outstandingly quickly. | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 21 2012 05:19 MidnightGladius wrote: Alderan, your analysis isn't paired with any actual conclusions, and I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that town players shouldn't be inclined to share their cases and suspicions. Are you still getting town reads from DYH? You certainly don't seem intent on providing a defense. Your last sentence implies that your current scum read is trackdoor, but could you confirm that that is indeed the case? Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity. The way I play, and the way I think the rest of the town should play, is you only defend those that you think are town if they are getting lynched. You will never see me make a large post about why someone is town. Ever. It's bad play and only helps mafia. | ||
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trackd00r
Chile284 Posts
On February 21 2012 04:21 Alderan wrote: Sorry for the hiatus, but I'm back, lets rock. Ok so here's some voting analysis I did about the Day 1 vote. In the last 30 minutes of voting 7 people Switched to Dimmuklok in this order: Trapd00r MidnightGladius Zelblade Jaj22 Sloosh TKHawkins EchelonTree This is a kind of switch that I have never seen before, and what it tells me is that mafia were extremely scared to no lynch or we were previously targeting a scum member. The leader prior to the lynch was EchelonTree who was coincidentally the lynch pin in the voting (pun definitely intended). Situation 1. Fear of no lynch: Mafia feels confident they are not being targeted in the least, and thus starts pushing whomever they feel like they can get votes on to. The only concise and irrefutable case at the time was mine on Dimmuklok so it was a perfect fit. The voting was in dissaray, so much so that MidnightGladius even makes the comment that the only people that are going to be able to be lynched are him and EchelonTree, so we need to decide something. Then Trapd00r leads off with the "Oh hey, Alderan's case was pretty good, lets take it into consideration now". 20 minutes later, we have a misslynch. Situation 2. EchelonTree is scum This situation hinges around the idea that ET was leading the voting prior to the end of the day, and managed a 20 minute shift of votes to, for better or worse, let him live another day. The idea is this then (this one get's a little WIFOMy but bear with me, it's logical), mafia are scrambling, looking for any case they can get a bandwagon on, identify mine, and jump on it using the town's fear of a no lynch as leverage to save their own and lynch a towny. Those not voting for ET that switched to Dimmuklok- - Sloosh - Zelblade - EchelonTree Note about Situation 2: Trapd00r seems more town in this situation than in Situation 1 as he had a vote cast on ET and was one of the major ET critics. Can't rule him out completely, but definitely if Situation 2 is correct he is leaning town. Well which do you think, Alderan? Well, I think situation 1 is the most logical in that everyone pretty much knew at the time of the vote that there going to be a no lynch unless a drastic change was made, so scum supporting ET would not have created a huge movement off of him, because that can only raise suspicions. This is WIFOM of course, which is why I listed both options instead of just Scenario 1. My next post will be analysis of Trapd00r, which should give us a nudge in the right direction about which of these cases happened. First of all, my ID is trackd00r, not trapd00r. It kinda annoys me when people misspell that. This was careless play by my part. I tried to push a ET lynch. Half an hour before the lynch, I realized that we were about to no-lynch. -I didn't want to hold my vote to ET because there were a couple of players that wouldn't change his vote to him by any means. -I didn't vote gumshoe because I thought (and I still think) he is town. -I didn't vote for MG because I just wasn't convinced at that case. His metagame, compared to NMM3, didn't alarm of any signs of scumisness, at least for me. Not many were convinced enough of his case as well. -I didn't vote for DYH/Sloosh because they both had 1 vote. I DID vote for dimmu because he was the least contributor so far. It seemed to be a transparent case that was blinded with the chaos and bandwagons of MG/ET and to a lesser extent gum. I knew that people were to going to switch to dimmu. It was the easiest case and at that time, the other players didn't want to mess with explaining other cases from other candidates. I didn't want to sound like an initiator of all this bandwagon, never. I still recognize that my play in those last hours of the lynch was very sloppy. I made a few mistakes trying to push dimmu, and got to a mislynch sadly.... I'd like to hear your opinions of the current DYH case after you finish writing your analysis on me. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 21 2012 05:01 Mattchew wrote: ps you fucked up cause zel was voting for ET and switched Wrong. Zelblade was voting for ET and then switched to DoYouHas. He switched from DoYouHas to DimmuKluk in the last 30 minutes of voting. | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
On February 21 2012 05:27 Alderan wrote: The way I play, and the way I think the rest of the town should play, is you only defend those that you think are town if they are getting lynched. You will never see me make a large post about why someone is town. Ever. It's bad play and only helps mafia. Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him? Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor? | ||
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Steveling
Greece10806 Posts
On February 21 2012 04:07 Mattchew wrote: still not doing it right... you need to bold it Rofl! That was a good laugh, xP. ##Vote DoYouHas Ok, I think we need new direction. Ima pick one lurkery player and post my opinion on him. If you want something specific ask me, that's the best way to promote town play. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 21 2012 05:34 MidnightGladius wrote: Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him? Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor? Settle down there, I was responding to the idea that the town should divulge all information they have. That's really bad for town and I wanted to reiterate that. As for where I'm leaning currently, I don't buy the DoYouHas case. If you start analysis from the when DoYouHas ended the fight with Sloosh on the first day, all I see is Sloosh hardline tunneling and/or a horrendous case of confirmation bias. The only suspicious play I read from DoYouHas was after that initial drop in the fight with Sloosh he actually returned and voted for him. Sloosh I find far more suspicious. He has tunneled harder than anyone in this thread, while attempting to squash any other discussion (discussion about me included). A quote like this is the most damning. On February 20 2012 14:05 slOosh wrote: Sounds good. My read on you was based upon you thinking DYH as town. As you state that you don't, I drop my suspicion. My point about him making a case is that he will actually try making a proper case. Notice he FOSed you, not voted. He has drawn such a distinct line in the sand that anyone who feels DYH is town must be scum. That flies in the face of optimal town play, so much so that I would say he is my number one suspicion at the moment. | ||
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EchelonTee
United States5239 Posts
What is a case based off of confirmation bias? Alderan, zelblade was still voting for me at some point, you're picking at technicalities if you're saying zel did not vote swap from me; your point in that section was that Mafia would have been less likely to be voting me if i'm scum, so you lightly discredited him based off misrepresented information. You also fail to acknowledge your role in the Dimmuklok lynch, while I directly pointed out my own role. I find that weird. Also weird is that you state "I'll only argue someone I think is town if they getting lynched", when MG was directly adding about DYH, who our being lynched. Obviously you posted your opinion later, but your response is largely "I think sloosh is wrong", not "I think DYH is town". Don't like your posting one bit. Still from phone, still at school. | ||
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EchelonTee
United States5239 Posts
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 21 2012 06:02 EchelonTee wrote: Few notes: What is a case based off of confirmation bias? Alderan, zelblade was still voting for me at some point, you're picking at technicalities if you're saying zel did not vote swap from me; your point in that section was that Mafia would have been less likely to be voting me if i'm scum, so you lightly discredited him based off misrepresented information. You also fail to acknowledge your role in the Dimmuklok lynch, while I directly pointed out my own role. I find that weird. Also weird is that you state "I'll only argue someone I think is town if they getting lynched", when MG was directly adding about DYH, who our being lynched. Obviously you posted your opinion later, but your response is largely "I think sloosh is wrong", not "I think DYH is town". Don't like your posting one bit. Still from phone, still at school. - Confirmation bias in the sense I'm referring is that Sloosh is so infatuated with lynching DYH that he makes posts like this: On February 20 2012 12:02 slOosh wrote: WOW. Lynch him NOW. 15 players to start. 1 lynched, 1 shot. That leaves 13 players. He posts 5 town reads, and concludes all mafia in the remaining 8 people, of which he is one. Don't even wait for his case. Lynch him. Because he has become fixated on DYH simple semantic errors are leading him to come to some pretty rash conclusions. - My voting analysis was only on the 30 minutes up to the Night Post because frankly that's where the important switch started. Because of this I failed to notice Zelblade was voting for you prior to voting for DoYouHas. I also don't think that it is necessarily relevant, as I stated before, this was analysis from the point everyone realized it might be a no-lynch (at which point Zelblade was on DoYouHas) and the Night Post. " your point in that section was that Mafia would have been less likely to be voting me if i'm scum." This is WIFOM. Mafia would have no problem voting for another scum if he wasn't in any danger. In fact, Zelblade getting off you just before things started getting hairy might be even more telling. - I firmly believe that it is much more effective to find flaws in arguments than make "Why x perosn is Town" posts. Period. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 21 2012 05:51 Alderan wrote: He has tunneled harder than anyone in this thread, while attempting to squash any other discussion (discussion about me included). A quote like this is the most damning. He has drawn such a distinct line in the sand that anyone who feels DYH is town must be scum. That flies in the face of optimal town play, so much so that I would say he is my number one suspicion at the moment. On February 20 2012 12:42 slOosh wrote: TOWN ARE YOU TRYING TO GO FOR NO LYNCH AGAIN??? We have ONE Lynch. ONE. If you want to FOS someone else you better have a good reason why you aren't voting DYH or Midnight or Echelon or whoever. We find and lynch mafia ONE AT A TIME. This is what I said and reiterate many times over. You can skim my filter and you will notice that most of my day 2 posts have been trying to focus town attention to getting a proper lynch (i.e. not last minute mass shifting). I never said whoever feels DYH is town must be scum. I said that unless you feel DYH is town you shouldn't distract town from focusing and lynching one mafia at a time. Now that there are enough votes on DYH, notice how I stopped trying to focus town and let people start discussion again. You seem to borrow DYH's logic - that confirmation bias and suboptimal play makes me mafia. What is your definition of optimal town play? You reference it a couple times in your post and use it as reasoning. So expound upon your definition and show me where I falter. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On February 21 2012 05:34 MidnightGladius wrote: Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him? Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor? Midnight who do you think we should lynch today? I wanted to wait for your opinion earlier before voting but you sorta vanished and I ended up voting on DYH because I reasoned his death would tell us a lot (god I'm a hypocrite. Another thing, I have a concern, if DYH flips town tonight, that'll mean that two of our solid posters accused you and then died. Looking back jaj's death seemed like an obvious way for the mafia to crumb suspicion on you, so I'm still pretty convinced your town because that move was just so blatant, but DYH's death if he's town may do a similar thing. Are you concerned about this possibility? How do you intend to address it? Because if DYH does flip town I'm not gonna lie I wont be able to help suspecting you. Whats your read on Hawk btw? | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
TKHawkins + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2012 13:56 TKHawkins wrote: Welcome. First game on this forum. Anyway, I don't think Gumshoes poll is scummy. It's more likely he just thought "he I wonder if this idea would work." Clearly the answer is no and he didn't really think it through. Seems like more of newbie attempt at something more then anything else. I'm sure the obsever quick thread is already LOLing hard at us. I laughed too (and didn't vote since I hadn't known the game had started). As for the policy on Lurker hunting, it's obviously a bit early to call people lurkers since many people might not even know the game has started yet (though definately not too early to discuss how to handle lurkers). It is best not to go after lurkers right away. The mafia generally aren't going to be completely inactive at the start. Rather, they are going to try to blend in. Scum post a reasonable amount, but don't contribute. And finally, the Sl0osh vs Ech thing, I do think it's suspicious for Sl0osh to be acting defensive already. bolded-He echoes Midnight's sentiments and tells us about his lack of voting in the poll, which for the life of me I can't see a reason for explaining this. underlined- Then he proposes a policy of not going after lurkers early, which as I have previously mentioned, is convenient because he is one. But even beyond that, he provides some WIFOM reasoning as to why we should not go after lurkers which, as a number of you have pointed out, the scum could easily just read and act differently if we were to ever adopt this reasoning. He lurks for about 26hrs, then provides this weak analysis of Janaan+ Show Spoiler + On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote: Janaan 1. In that quote he basically accuses almost everybody who had posted in the thread at the time of being lurkers or scummy. Its not really helpful to spray such accusations without backing it up. He complains about "fluff" posts but does not include Gumshoe in his list of people who are posting fluffy. 2. He then kinda jumps onto a DimmuKlok bandwagon based entirely on Alderan's post. 3. He says all the right things but isn't really contributing. @Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? 1. That list accused exactly who it said it would be accusing, the people who only had a couple of posts in the game so far and had yet to really get past the fluffy policy talk at the start of the game. It doesn't make sense that gumshoe would be on that list, he had posted frequently, and even if those posts were lacking merit, he was a center of conflict in the thread. 2. He is trying to frame Janaan as someone who was letting Alderan doing his thinking for him. But that is clearly not the case if you read Janaan's posts relating to Dimmuklok. 3. I also think he is saying the right things, and I think it is because he is Town. + Show Spoiler + On February 19 2012 01:05 TKHawkins wrote: Gumshoe does not follow direction well though. I do not think he'd actually listen to scum telling him not to post like that. After all, people have already told him not to post like that here and he ignores everybody. He's definitely giving noob vibes. But a noob could be town or a noob could be mafia. The moderators assigning roles randomly don't care who gets what role. The idea of "he's acting too noob so he must be town because mafia would stop him" is a flimsy argument because he could just be a noob. I don't see how we are supposed to decide his innocence or guilty solely based on that. @Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. Hawk presents a similar reasoning to Midnight's regarding gumshoe then comes that underlined section. That first sentence is valueless. Then we get to his summary of the reasons that gumshoe could be town. Did anyone expect Hawk to decide gum's innocence or guilt based just on that? I certainly didn't, that wasn't my case. Now we get to his list of reads post, as I mentioned previously it is difficult to draw meaningful analysis out of a post like this, but I do have 2 thoughts. + Show Spoiler + On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote: Gumshoe Has had to spend most of the game defending himself. Looking at what else he's done besides that, he suspects Gladius for spending too much time on commenting on the set up. FOS's MannerKiss. Comments on how DimmuKlok made an accusation against "the most obvious runt" (Manner) and and the "second most obvious seeming runt" (himself). Later comments on how Ech and him are now the most obvious votes and pushes for Ech. These are the comments of somebody scrambling to stay alive, not scum. Blae Quality post with a new argument against Ech for being too aggressive. Gets ticked at lurkers. Sees trackd00r and Janaan as pro-town. Blae feels very pro town to me. Would love to see more, but with the Europe timezone difference I think I will end up playing phone tag with him on the weekdays. Alderan Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes a case against DimmuKlok, Neutral until I can see more. Ech Throws FOSs and Votes out very impulsively. Does not seem to have a plan, and could just be trying to cause unrest. Why say you had more to say about MidnightGladius being suspicious and then not say anything more? It's almost as if he voted for Midnight and then forgot why he was going to say he voted for him. Which a town would not do. Suspicious. DoYouHas Mostly bogged down with Gumshoe. Trying to tag sl0osh as a good player who wouldn't make such mistakes. It makes no sense to try to meta analyze a player with only one game of background. DoYouHas is jumping on perceived mistakes. Suspicious. MannerKiss There is a difference between lurking by not posting every 4 hours and lurking by actively reading the thread and then just not posting on it. Suspicious because is following the thread and not posting. Steveling Pushes a no lynch and then says he just got confused on the day length. Pushes the gumshoe, who is already getting a lot of heat. Suspicious because no lynch is anti town, even if we had no real leads and because he focuses us back on gumshoe. Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read. Midnight I can't get a solid read on him. Slo0sh Still think he reacted too strongly to Ech and DoYouHas accusing him. Why feel guilty as town? Focuses discussion back on Gumshoe, possibly to distract us from his scum buddies. Suspicious. Janaan Had a good explanation for a bad early post I pointed out. Seems to be trying to get other people's reads, so looks pro-town. DimmuKlok Seems to be overly emphasizing that he is new to the game and busy. So am I, but I don't feel the need to state that every other post. Neutral. Zelblade Says Ech is mafia and... that's it? I don't see how he is contributing if he is only going to comment on one or two players. The stuff he says about Ech though is good. Pro-town, but lurking too much. jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. Every single one of us has earned a town/suspicious/null read from TKHawkins at this point, EXCEPT Midnight. He has since made the point that he is not the only person who had a hard time reading Midnight, which is true, I was one of them. However, I find it strange for 2 reasons. The first is that he managed to pull together a read on every other person, strange to me since I was having trouble with multiple persons. The second is that TKHawkins clearly had put a fair bit of thought into gumshoe, but didn't have an opinion on Midnight, who was highly involved with gum. Even I had at least looked at Midnight long enough to identify a few suspicious things in his play while I was preoccupied with slOosh. This is supposition, but I think there is a chance that TKHawkins tried to buddy trackd00r early. + Show Spoiler + On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote: @Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? Deferential tone. @Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. Agreement. Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read. Strong pro-town read. Hawk's next 3 actions are to illicit blae's opinion on Midnight, defend Midnight by questioning jaj22's intentions, and vote ET, giving 1 weak reason of his own, and citing the reasoning that Midnight was using to put suspicion on ET. For someone who has no opinion on Midnight, I think TKHawkins has spent far to much time defending him and working towards the same ends as him. As for Janaan My opinion on him is pretty obvious if you read my points on TKHawkins. Janaan has been contributing, trying to pull information out of people, he pointed out that he made a mistake with his vote on ET instead of trying sweep it under the rug. And unlike a few of you, even though he is currently convinced enough to vote for me, he seems to be holding himself apart from the situation a bit to avoid tunneling, something that I appreciate. | ||
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Steveling
Greece10806 Posts
You made quite a few connections about midnight and hawkings but you didn't state your conclusion. Are you actually saying that they are working together? Clarify please. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On February 21 2012 06:57 DoYouHas wrote: My thoughts on TKHawkins and Janaan TKHawkins + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2012 13:56 TKHawkins wrote: Welcome. First game on this forum. Anyway, I don't think Gumshoes poll is scummy. It's more likely he just thought "he I wonder if this idea would work." Clearly the answer is no and he didn't really think it through. Seems like more of newbie attempt at something more then anything else. I'm sure the obsever quick thread is already LOLing hard at us. I laughed too (and didn't vote since I hadn't known the game had started). As for the policy on Lurker hunting, it's obviously a bit early to call people lurkers since many people might not even know the game has started yet (though definately not too early to discuss how to handle lurkers). It is best not to go after lurkers right away. The mafia generally aren't going to be completely inactive at the start. Rather, they are going to try to blend in. Scum post a reasonable amount, but don't contribute. And finally, the Sl0osh vs Ech thing, I do think it's suspicious for Sl0osh to be acting defensive already. bolded-He echoes Midnight's sentiments and tells us about his lack of voting in the poll, which for the life of me I can't see a reason for explaining this. underlined- Then he proposes a policy of not going after lurkers early, which as I have previously mentioned, is convenient because he is one. But even beyond that, he provides some WIFOM reasoning as to why we should not go after lurkers which, as a number of you have pointed out, the scum could easily just read and act differently if we were to ever adopt this reasoning. He lurks for about 26hrs, then provides this weak analysis of Janaan+ Show Spoiler + On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote: Janaan 1. In that quote he basically accuses almost everybody who had posted in the thread at the time of being lurkers or scummy. Its not really helpful to spray such accusations without backing it up. He complains about "fluff" posts but does not include Gumshoe in his list of people who are posting fluffy. 2. He then kinda jumps onto a DimmuKlok bandwagon based entirely on Alderan's post. 3. He says all the right things but isn't really contributing. @Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? 1. That list accused exactly who it said it would be accusing, the people who only had a couple of posts in the game so far and had yet to really get past the fluffy policy talk at the start of the game. It doesn't make sense that gumshoe would be on that list, he had posted frequently, and even if those posts were lacking merit, he was a center of conflict in the thread. 2. He is trying to frame Janaan as someone who was letting Alderan doing his thinking for him. But that is clearly not the case if you read Janaan's posts relating to Dimmuklok. 3. I also think he is saying the right things, and I think it is because he is Town. + Show Spoiler + On February 19 2012 01:05 TKHawkins wrote: Gumshoe does not follow direction well though. I do not think he'd actually listen to scum telling him not to post like that. After all, people have already told him not to post like that here and he ignores everybody. He's definitely giving noob vibes. But a noob could be town or a noob could be mafia. The moderators assigning roles randomly don't care who gets what role. The idea of "he's acting too noob so he must be town because mafia would stop him" is a flimsy argument because he could just be a noob. I don't see how we are supposed to decide his innocence or guilty solely based on that. @Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. Hawk presents a similar reasoning to Midnight's regarding gumshoe then comes that underlined section. That first sentence is valueless. Then we get to his summary of the reasons that gumshoe could be town. Did anyone expect Hawk to decide gum's innocence or guilt based just on that? I certainly didn't, that wasn't my case. Now we get to his list of reads post, as I mentioned previously it is difficult to draw meaningful analysis out of a post like this, but I do have 2 thoughts. + Show Spoiler + On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote: Gumshoe Has had to spend most of the game defending himself. Looking at what else he's done besides that, he suspects Gladius for spending too much time on commenting on the set up. FOS's MannerKiss. Comments on how DimmuKlok made an accusation against "the most obvious runt" (Manner) and and the "second most obvious seeming runt" (himself). Later comments on how Ech and him are now the most obvious votes and pushes for Ech. These are the comments of somebody scrambling to stay alive, not scum. Blae Quality post with a new argument against Ech for being too aggressive. Gets ticked at lurkers. Sees trackd00r and Janaan as pro-town. Blae feels very pro town to me. Would love to see more, but with the Europe timezone difference I think I will end up playing phone tag with him on the weekdays. Alderan Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes a case against DimmuKlok, Neutral until I can see more. Ech Throws FOSs and Votes out very impulsively. Does not seem to have a plan, and could just be trying to cause unrest. Why say you had more to say about MidnightGladius being suspicious and then not say anything more? It's almost as if he voted for Midnight and then forgot why he was going to say he voted for him. Which a town would not do. Suspicious. DoYouHas Mostly bogged down with Gumshoe. Trying to tag sl0osh as a good player who wouldn't make such mistakes. It makes no sense to try to meta analyze a player with only one game of background. DoYouHas is jumping on perceived mistakes. Suspicious. MannerKiss There is a difference between lurking by not posting every 4 hours and lurking by actively reading the thread and then just not posting on it. Suspicious because is following the thread and not posting. Steveling Pushes a no lynch and then says he just got confused on the day length. Pushes the gumshoe, who is already getting a lot of heat. Suspicious because no lynch is anti town, even if we had no real leads and because he focuses us back on gumshoe. Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read. Midnight I can't get a solid read on him. Slo0sh Still think he reacted too strongly to Ech and DoYouHas accusing him. Why feel guilty as town? Focuses discussion back on Gumshoe, possibly to distract us from his scum buddies. Suspicious. Janaan Had a good explanation for a bad early post I pointed out. Seems to be trying to get other people's reads, so looks pro-town. DimmuKlok Seems to be overly emphasizing that he is new to the game and busy. So am I, but I don't feel the need to state that every other post. Neutral. Zelblade Says Ech is mafia and... that's it? I don't see how he is contributing if he is only going to comment on one or two players. The stuff he says about Ech though is good. Pro-town, but lurking too much. jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. Every single one of us has earned a town/suspicious/null read from TKHawkins at this point, EXCEPT Midnight. He has since made the point that he is not the only person who had a hard time reading Midnight, which is true, I was one of them. However, I find it strange for 2 reasons. The first is that he managed to pull together a read on every other person, strange to me since I was having trouble with multiple persons. The second is that TKHawkins clearly had put a fair bit of thought into gumshoe, but didn't have an opinion on Midnight, who was highly involved with gum. Even I had at least looked at Midnight long enough to identify a few suspicious things in his play while I was preoccupied with slOosh. This is supposition, but I think there is a chance that TKHawkins tried to buddy trackd00r early. + Show Spoiler + On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote: @Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? Deferential tone. @Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. Agreement. Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read. Strong pro-town read. Hawk's next 3 actions are to illicit blae's opinion on Midnight, defend Midnight by questioning jaj22's intentions, and vote ET, giving 1 weak reason of his own, and citing the reasoning that Midnight was using to put suspicion on ET. For someone who has no opinion on Midnight, I think TKHawkins has spent far to much time defending him and working towards the same ends as him. As for Janaan My opinion on him is pretty obvious if you read my points on TKHawkins. Janaan has been contributing, trying to pull information out of people, he pointed out that he made a mistake with his vote on ET instead of trying sweep it under the rug. And unlike a few of you, even though he is currently convinced enough to vote for me, he seems to be holding himself apart from the situation a bit to avoid tunneling, something that I appreciate. Thank you for posting exactly what I expected out of you. The issue of Tk Hawkins and janaan are linked, Tk has been tunnelling janaan for a while now and I think his case has some basis, but only if your scum. You accuse Tk of buddying despite the fact that you have had what I consider one of the most notable buddyings with Janaan, plus while Hawk has stuck by his opinions so far janaan began distancing himself from you( though without condemning you) a while back when you first became suspicious. its really very simple, if you flip red we lynch Janaan, if you flip green we lynch Hawk, because the only thing hawk has done is really tunnel Janaan and I consider you and janaan linked so if you come up green then I support Janaan your opinion here on Janaan and I will suspect Hawk. i just wanted you to say Hawk was bad which would imply you think janaan is good. I appreciate you making things simpler for me. After DYH has been lynched I will provide an in depth case on why I think we should lynch janaan if DYH was red or hawk if DYH was green. One thing though, Hawk has had little to do with DYH just like Janaan, so this post by DYH may be an elaborate scheme to make us lynch janaan when DYH flips scum because he supported Janaan with this post and turned out to be scum, however I do not think there is even a remote chance that neither of these players are mafia. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On February 21 2012 07:14 Steveling wrote: Interesting read. You made quite a few connections about midnight and hawkings but you didn't state your conclusion. Are you actually saying that they are working together? Clarify please. You missed the point -_- he thinks Janaan is town and Hawk is scum because he's been tunnelling Janaan(among other things) Did you just read the first half or something? He discusses Janaan clearly at the end. Do you think they're working together? | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
On February 21 2012 06:34 gumshoe wrote: Midnight who do you think we should lynch today? I wanted to wait for your opinion earlier before voting but you sorta vanished and I ended up voting on DYH because I reasoned his death would tell us a lot (god I'm a hypocrite. Another thing, I have a concern, if DYH flips town tonight, that'll mean that two of our solid posters accused you and then died. Looking back jaj's death seemed like an obvious way for the mafia to crumb suspicion on you, so I'm still pretty convinced your town because that move was just so blatant, but DYH's death if he's town may do a similar thing. Are you concerned about this possibility? How do you intend to address it? Because if DYH does flip town I'm not gonna lie I wont be able to help suspecting you. Whats your read on Hawk btw? You must have missed my earlier post where I explained why I was voting for DYH. There's certainly a possibility that DYH is innocent and that we're all way off track, but there's not really anything for me to address at this point: no matter what, I think that lynching DYH is the right move today. Currently, Alderan is my priority for tomorrow, and the result of today's lynch will certainly influence that case, but I see no reason to pre-emptively defend against a possibility that basically just generates WIFOM. Hawk needs to explain why he still can't get a read on me, and he should be coming back soon to vote and reply to his accusers. He also needs to follow up his analysis of the slOosh/DYH conflict, and I really want to see what he means by logic. He's made reference to it a number of times, but I've yet to see any use of it from him. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On February 21 2012 07:21 MidnightGladius wrote: You must have missed my earlier post where I explained why I was voting for DYH. There's certainly a possibility that DYH is innocent and that we're all way off track, but there's not really anything for me to address at this point: no matter what, I think that lynching DYH is the right move today. Currently, Alderan is my priority for tomorrow, and the result of today's lynch will certainly influence that case, but I see no reason to pre-emptively defend against a possibility that basically just generates WIFOM. Hawk needs to explain why he still can't get a read on me, and he should be coming back soon to vote and reply to his accusers. He also needs to follow up his analysis of the slOosh/DYH conflict, and I really want to see what he means by logic. He's made reference to it a number of times, but I've yet to see any use of it from him. Your right about the wifom, well cross bridges when we get to them, one scum at a time. What do you think about my plan on Hawk and Janaan? Is it too narrow minded? | ||
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Steveling
Greece10806 Posts
On February 21 2012 07:19 gumshoe wrote: You missed the point -_- he thinks Janaan is town and Hawk is scum because he's been tunnelling Janaan(among other things) Did you just read the first half or something? He discusses Janaan clearly at the end. Do you think they're working together? So, he thinks janaan is town, hawk is tunneling him, so hawk is scum? Yeah better let him explain. lol And anyway I'm not interested in town reads, I'm interested in scum reads. | ||
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no reason to suspect as of yet
