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11589 Posts
On May 03 2013 05:21 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 04:20 yamato77 wrote:
Well, it's painfully obvious to me that we should just RNG between Ace/Hopeless/BC and insta-lynch them.
List Randomizer
There were 3 items in your list. Here they are in random order:
Hopeless
Cobbler
Ace
Timestamp: 2013-05-02 19:20:03 UTC
Random.org has spoken. We lynch Hopeless. You are advocating me (i know I am town) and Ace who is either 3p or town, and hopeless who given the context of the last few pages could easily be town or mafia. However Given I know you don't give two shits now about finding scum in any logical manner and have been trying to get Ace lynched first off this list (because he might be 3rd off a ton of wifom bullshit). You go first. No town member should be advocating a potential 3rd party player when we have mafia still alive. Especially when said potential third party has been pushing mafia lynches a fair bit this game. The only one who would give two shits about mafia dying quickly is rita skeeter as she wins if the game ends on any sides victory. Plain and simple you are mafia. I cannot believed I have waffled so much about this all game.
Read this post against and tell me just how much like bullshit it sounds.
Completely ridiculous.
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On May 04 2013 09:09 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 05:21 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 03 2013 04:20 yamato77 wrote:
Well, it's painfully obvious to me that we should just RNG between Ace/Hopeless/BC and insta-lynch them.
List Randomizer
There were 3 items in your list. Here they are in random order:
Hopeless
Cobbler
Ace
Timestamp: 2013-05-02 19:20:03 UTC
Random.org has spoken. We lynch Hopeless.You are advocating me (i know I am town) and Ace who is either 3p or town, and hopeless who given the context of the last few pages could easily be town or mafia. However Given I know you don't give two shits now about finding scum in any logical manner and have been trying to get Ace lynched first off this list (because he might be 3rd off a ton of wifom bullshit). You go first. No town member should be advocating a potential 3rd party player when we have mafia still alive. Especially when said potential third party has been pushing mafia lynches a fair bit this game. The only one who would give two shits about mafia dying quickly is rita skeeter as she wins if the game ends on any sides victory. Plain and simple you are mafia. I cannot believed I have waffled so much about this all game. Read this post against and tell me just how much like bullshit it sounds. Completely ridiculous.
How about you do what Palmar and I are doing? You know, trying to solve the game before we die. Cause he and I are both operating on the we get noosed. How about you do the same and work with us?
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Is there anyone that still thinks Hopeless is town?
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11589 Posts
I believe I've solved the game
Note that I've already given my read of everyone in the game in my filter, a day ago, and I have little reason to change any of it, except now I would say Artanis is more likely town than before.
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On May 04 2013 09:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Is there anyone that still thinks Hopeless is town?
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On May 04 2013 09:19 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 09:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Is there anyone that still thinks Hopeless is town?
I'm guessing this is a scumclaim?
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On May 04 2013 09:03 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 09:00 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 04 2013 08:53 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 04 2013 08:47 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I have a strong townread on Yamato. He also brought up the idea of BC being 3rd party survivor when reading through the case. Seems like he actually thought it through and evaluated it.
That he randomly started pushing BC after Ace flipped 3P is concerning though. I haven't seen his thought process behind it. Ace was clearly 3p from an early stage in my books (called him on it like n1 or d2) I figured he was survivor though. Also you have seen the thought process of Palmar and I, we more or less narrowed it to 3 people. One of which (hopeless) I think you can easily understand. Yes, but don't forget Stutters (which you put as null) and TRN (whilst masoning Palmar is ballsy there's something off about a bunch of his posts to me). Getmoript has also played an awful game. How certain are we that the modconfirmed thing is truly modconfirmed? Read both Yamato and Giggles filter. One reads far more prominently townie to me. However I will admit I have had a huge scum read of yamato most of the game to the point I don't think I can seperate myself from it. However thread sentiment / agreement from most major players everyone can agree on were town before they flipped had ace down as likely 3p. I'll reread both filters tomorrow. It's true that everyone had Ace down as 3P, but that wasn't the thing that concerned me. The thing that did concern me was how Yamato changed reads from putting you as 3P to scum when it was incredibly likely that Ace would flip 3P and he knew that, so why did it change? You do raise the point of him pushing me as 3p survivor. Why would Town care which 3p is which? Town has to eliminate the player if they think said player is not town / playing against town win con. As such figuring out which potential 3p is what doesn't matter if they are likely shooting town. Only reason I can see someone caring which 3p someone is is if they are mafia hoping to get someone with night protection lynched to make sure a shot doesn't get blocked. It matters because Survivor can win with town so a survivor doesn't need to be eliminated. A SP/SK does need to be eliminated as it can't win with town. There's no reason to lynch survivor, there is a good reason to lynch SP/SK. I honestly cant see gemoript as scum. Marv would have no reason to have a seperate qt with geript if they were scum. They could easily interact via a scum qt just fine.
I actually read Geript as town from his filter, there's a few posts I pointed out long ago that read that way to me.
But since your only reason seems to be the QT thing, I'll give you a reason to mull over, and decide again.
Marv clearly wanted a backseat role this game, he barely intended to post. Basically a shadowing position. It crossed my mind that Marv was upset because he just wanted to talk one on one with Geript in their own QT, but was told by BH that he had to talk in the scum QT and he opposed having to interact/deal with more players. Marv intending to only act as a personal coach, was upset when asked to essentially be a team coach.
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On May 04 2013 09:31 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 09:19 Hopeless1der wrote:On May 04 2013 09:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Is there anyone that still thinks Hopeless is town? I'm guessing this is a scumclaim?
I'm town you jerkface.
On May 04 2013 09:11 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 09:09 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 05:21 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 03 2013 04:20 yamato77 wrote:
Well, it's painfully obvious to me that we should just RNG between Ace/Hopeless/BC and insta-lynch them.
List Randomizer
There were 3 items in your list. Here they are in random order:
Hopeless
Cobbler
Ace
Timestamp: 2013-05-02 19:20:03 UTC
Random.org has spoken. We lynch Hopeless.You are advocating me (i know I am town) and Ace who is either 3p or town, and hopeless who given the context of the last few pages could easily be town or mafia. However Given I know you don't give two shits now about finding scum in any logical manner and have been trying to get Ace lynched first off this list (because he might be 3rd off a ton of wifom bullshit). You go first. No town member should be advocating a potential 3rd party player when we have mafia still alive. Especially when said potential third party has been pushing mafia lynches a fair bit this game. The only one who would give two shits about mafia dying quickly is rita skeeter as she wins if the game ends on any sides victory. Plain and simple you are mafia. I cannot believed I have waffled so much about this all game. Read this post against and tell me just how much like bullshit it sounds. Completely ridiculous. How about you do what Palmar and I are doing? You know, trying to solve the game before we die. Cause he and I are both operating on the we get noosed. How about you do the same and work with us?
I did this before it was cool. Its fine though.
12-2 right now, assuming 2 mafia and no remaining 3rd party. At the very least I feel safe assuming 1KP per night
Upon day post:
11-2
Assuming fail-town / the purging, through successive nights we'll have
Lynch+NK =9-2
Lynch+NK =7-2
Lynch+NK =5-2
Lynch+NK =3-2
i.e. 4 mislynches until LYLO
Supposing Palmar/BC get their shit together and at least one of them is town, I have no problem taking up a cell in Azkaban.
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On May 04 2013 09:34 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 09:03 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 04 2013 09:00 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 04 2013 08:53 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 04 2013 08:47 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I have a strong townread on Yamato. He also brought up the idea of BC being 3rd party survivor when reading through the case. Seems like he actually thought it through and evaluated it.
That he randomly started pushing BC after Ace flipped 3P is concerning though. I haven't seen his thought process behind it. Ace was clearly 3p from an early stage in my books (called him on it like n1 or d2) I figured he was survivor though. Also you have seen the thought process of Palmar and I, we more or less narrowed it to 3 people. One of which (hopeless) I think you can easily understand. Yes, but don't forget Stutters (which you put as null) and TRN (whilst masoning Palmar is ballsy there's something off about a bunch of his posts to me). Getmoript has also played an awful game. How certain are we that the modconfirmed thing is truly modconfirmed? Read both Yamato and Giggles filter. One reads far more prominently townie to me. However I will admit I have had a huge scum read of yamato most of the game to the point I don't think I can seperate myself from it. However thread sentiment / agreement from most major players everyone can agree on were town before they flipped had ace down as likely 3p. I'll reread both filters tomorrow. It's true that everyone had Ace down as 3P, but that wasn't the thing that concerned me. The thing that did concern me was how Yamato changed reads from putting you as 3P to scum when it was incredibly likely that Ace would flip 3P and he knew that, so why did it change? You do raise the point of him pushing me as 3p survivor. Why would Town care which 3p is which? Town has to eliminate the player if they think said player is not town / playing against town win con. As such figuring out which potential 3p is what doesn't matter if they are likely shooting town. Only reason I can see someone caring which 3p someone is is if they are mafia hoping to get someone with night protection lynched to make sure a shot doesn't get blocked. It matters because Survivor can win with town so a survivor doesn't need to be eliminated. A SP/SK does need to be eliminated as it can't win with town. There's no reason to lynch survivor, there is a good reason to lynch SP/SK. I honestly cant see gemoript as scum. Marv would have no reason to have a seperate qt with geript if they were scum. They could easily interact via a scum qt just fine. I actually read Geript as town from his filter, there's a few posts I pointed out long ago that read that way to me. But since your only reason seems to be the QT thing, I'll give you a reason to mull over, and decide again. Marv clearly wanted a backseat role this game, he barely intended to post. Basically a shadowing position. It crossed my mind that Marv was upset because he just wanted to talk one on one with Geript in their own QT, but was told by BH that he had to talk in the scum QT and he opposed having to interact/deal with more players. Marv intending to only act as a personal coach, was upset when asked to essentially be a team coach.
Sharrant I think you are wrong about this. The reason marv wanted his own QT was so he could insult people and they woulnd't find out afterwards in the postgame when links to the qts are made public. Last game marv insulted DP in his hydra QT with VE, DP read and and quit the game forever.
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11589 Posts
First of all, I want to make an immediate point. On night one, there were two role blocks. We've seen a mafia JK flip. We know he was responsible for one, and that person is confirmed not mafia. The other one could very well be the result of a town JK, and that person's alignment would still be unknown. However, by process of elimination, if the town JK claims, we have two confirmed town, and one of them is Palmar/BC.
The only downside to claiming is that you'll 100% be shot tonight if you do it before the day post, but if you wait until after, we might not get the chance to know. I would claim, because I think I know who it is, and if I can figure it out, mafia probably can as well. You'll literally be giving us a PRIZED piece of the puzzle here, as confirming one of those two is fucking amazing. So do it.
Thus ends the concrete portion of today's analysis of the game state.
Next, I want to think about a notion I've been considering since Ace flipped third party, and one that may lead to a more complete understanding of the game. It's speculative, but it's interesting.
What does Ace flipping third party give us in terms of information? Normally, I don't think it would give much, because neither mafia nor town can know Ace's alignment, so it's possible that mafia vote for him just like town, right?
Wrong. It's in mafia's best interest to have KP like a third party poisoner floating around, especially in a scenario like the one we're in now, where town vastly outnumbers mafia. The scum team need all the help they can get, so if they think someone is serial poisoner, they might shy away from lynching him.
So that brings me to this post from Sharrant:
On May 03 2013 05:02 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 04:42 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:On May 03 2013 04:34 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 04:32 Hopeless1der wrote:
why the fuck is ace in that list? Should I care with which order I lynch anti-town elements in this game? Yes considering Ace's KP is controlled atm Only if you assume the JK plays along with our plan, and mafia doesn't already know who he is. If I can figure it out, I'm sure they aren't that stupid. The only exception to the following is thus: You think Ace is mafia and bussed 2 of his teammates, and possibly a third. No, it's quite demonstrably anti-town to lynch Ace. It's been explained several times. There are three situations where you lynch Ace: One: At least one night before LyLo. Two: If the jailer dies to a night kill. Even if the jailer dies to a night kill, Ace will still be RB'ed and thus cannot kill anyone, and he can be lynched without losing any townies. Three: We have 5 dead mafia and the game has not ended. Why do you people not understand this? Ace is not in any way shape or form confirmed third party. He is the only candidate that could be third party (aside from a survivor) but lynching him is ANTI-TOWN. Lynching him now means we give another night to the mafia members in return for ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Unless our jailer pops up and goes "I'm not RB'ing Ace tonight" then there's no reason to lynch him. On top of that, IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE HE'S NOT THIRD PARTY. If there's a scum Vigi still left alive (which is just as likely in my books as Ace being mafia just due to set up analysis) it would explain the exact same scenario we are in. So anyone not looking at that like it's a possibility is either not using their brain, or is mafia trying to push an agenda. Whether or not he's third party, it is not good town play to lynch him. He still may be town, and either way he's one of the stronger analysts in the game. I'd rather have the counsel of a man who knows he is doomed to lose, than potentially kill a townie AND waste time not killing mafia when Ace is already a completely solved situation. TLDR; There's never a situation in which Ace kills a townie unless our jailer dies AND we spend the following day not lynching Ace. Ace is a bad lynch today. I don't want to have to argue this anymore, I'm going to go read stuff, and if anyone tries to dispute this and cannot prove even a single specific scenario where this breaks down, I will just assume you're mafia and go from there because you will be pushing anti-town agendas with the knowledge that it has no benefit to town, and only helps mafia.
Most of this is, on its face, reasonable. Actually, I'm pretty sure that Sharrant here believes it to be fine and dandy that Ace not be lynched, and I have a town read on Sharrant. But the notion he spreads here is another thing that is pro-mafia, when you think about it. Keeping Ace perma-jailed actually leaves town more vulnerable to KP than lynching him, because with the town jailer locked up, mafia KP is assuredly going to hit town.
Now like I said, I think Sharrant is town. But the idea is there nonetheless, mafia have a clear motive for keeping Ace alive, even if he's confirmed third party. And who argued to keep Ace alive and not lynch him, despite believing him to be third party?
Hopeless. At the bottom of page 215, you'll find a conversation between him and I about lynching Ace. I argue for the possibility, and he argues against it. I ask a very straightforward question, one that is at the root of the town win con: why should I, as town, care whether I'm lynching mafia or anti-town third party? Both of those groups have to die for town to win. Yet Hopeless disagrees. Why? It's because he's mafia, showing his true colors.
Another interesting notion that goes along with Ace being third party is BC's read of him. If BC believed Ace to be third party, as he claimed to have done the whole game, why did he never push for his lynch? He doesn't care enough about the game to push his reads, even when he is here. I think he mentioned Ace being third party once, the whole game. Why didn't he try to persuade town to lynch him, if he felt that way throughout?
Because he's been fixated on me the whole game, using some of town's suspicion of me as an excuse for a scum read to skate by. He doesn't care about solving the game, he cares about not getting lynched. That's why I thought he was survivor, but there are people who play scum the same way. Perhaps BC is one of them.
All in all, the Ace flip only makes me more confident in my reads. I could be wrong, I admit, but I doubt it.
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If town JK and scum JK jailed Palmar/BC, they're both very likely to be town. There's no reason for scum to jail themselves on N1 given that the only hit against them that could come would be from a SK. It's much much much more likely that scum would use their JK offensively. If they didn't to WIFOM with town, then why was that never used? When you decide to fakeclaim it has to be for a reason, but neither Palmar nor BC used this in their defense. Therefore I find it unlikely that it was faked, which would clear the both of them.
Additionally, it's likely one of them got shot unless you believe scum doublestacked Vivax, which I have a very hard time seeing to be the case. That, or they hit Ace, but I'd think scum would try to get Ace lynched for town cred in that scenario. The only one who's pushed for Ace's lynch until he was confirmed 3P was Yamato, and he didn't exactly get much support from anyone.
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you're forgetting vigi shots...
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so is the conclusion that mafia defensively jailed N2 and didnt claim?
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On May 04 2013 21:50 Hopeless1der wrote:
so is the conclusion that mafia defensively jailed N2 and didnt claim?
It seems likely. First night that vigis can shoot and they had a bunch of inactive players.
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On May 03 2013 10:28 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 09:01 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
BM, once you've caught up could you tell me your thoughts on BC, Palmar, Hopeless, Ace and if you have any scumspects outside of these, those would be great too.
Going to bed now. i still remember like 100 pages worth of this game not a lot will change unless i catch a slip... i haven't caught anything major, yet hopeless1der i dont remember seeing much of, would love to lynch there unless he has a good claim. need someone to compile claims Palmar is still claiming DT? have to keep tabs on him BC is being BC-behind-the-scenes, so I'm LEANING UMBRIDGE, but he could be the town mason, or in the mason group Ace is probably town
BM... wheres our explination on why BC is an umbridge?
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Current reads:
Strong Town
WaveOfShadow
ObviousOne
Getmoript
WaveOfShadow didn't start out too impressive but I'm confident in this read right now. Clearly seems to want to figure the game out. I already had a great feel about ObviousOne, and that's only been compounded by the fact that he got confirmed by VE. Getmoript modconfirmed for obvious reasons.
Probable Town
Palmar
Bloodyc0bbler
Yamato77
Kushm4sta
Weak Town
GiggleS
TheRavensName
Palmar and BC have been talked about enough. I feel fucking awful that I made a long as fuck case on someone I now believe to be town, but on the other hand I'm glad those two finally stepped their game up. If they lead us into a bunch of mislynches in a row you should think about lynching them because it's still possible that one of them is scum, but I just don't think they are with how it's gone down.
Yamato has felt town to me all game long, and there's a lot of things that still point towards him being town. The amount of effort he's putting in despite scum being down so much and the fact that he's pushed Hopeless (though this should be reconsidered if Hopeless flips green) so hard and well make me feel fairly comfortable with him. Please don't lynch him unless he does something truly dumb.
Kush has done a few things I'd consider to be too dumb to be scum. He's been very impulsive and if he was scum I'd think he'd have slipped up by now.
GiggleS hasn't said much, but most of what he's said does appear to come from a town mindset. I don't think he's scum, but it's possible.
TRN as Palmar's already stated is probably town for masoning him. I think there's a big chance that scum shot at Palmar on N1, and it wouldn't make sense for scum to both NK and mason him. Even if this wasn't the case, masoning Palmar is a big risk for an inexperienced scum player. Nonetheless, there are things in his filter that worry me. Suggest a closer look at him.
Null
Stutters695
Bill Murray
Sharrant
Haven't taken the time to look into BM and Sharrant yet. You guys seem to be fairly certain they're town though so I'll take your words for that. I do not like Sharrant's comeback though. A few of his questions as Yamato pointed out seemed to point towards a scum agenda. Another player you'd want to take a look at.
Scum
Hopeless1der
Enough has been said about him. Just kill him already unless he gives you a really good reason not to.
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Lazy hosts are lazy.
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Day 6
ObviousOne the Brave Wizard is dead
13 alive, 7 to lynch.
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I'm confident at least 1 scum lies within BC, BM and Palmar. I'd probably lynch in that order right now.
If thats not game over, I'd consider looking into Sharrant, TRN and Yamato next.
##Vote: BloddyC0bbler
For the record, do you honestly think there was a way out of Palmar's proposed 1-2 punch other than "well gosh that sounds swell"...
/afk
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EPT
