EPTTL Mafia XLVIII - Page 172
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Curu
Canada2817 Posts
On December 19 2011 11:29 Jackal58 wrote: Convinced the hell out of Palmar with a bullet. lolol Jackal's a poet. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On December 19 2011 11:37 wherebugsgo wrote: The three additional townies were completely unnecessary! Annul had already been saved BEFORE Risen voted him, and sandro was not in danger of being lynched. The point wasn't to bus sandro, it was to force a no-lynch. Thus, annul's and risen's votes were pointless. Sandro was at 6 when annul+Risen voted him and annul was at 8, with sandro and you being one of the 8. yes annul was 1 vote short on majorty, sandroba was 2 short on majority but as mentioned: We just feared that some townie would come along and hero unvote sandroba and vote annul because they realized that a no-lynch is going to lose the game. Edit: I'm pretty sure I wasn't on annul. I swapped to sandroba very early as well, way before risen did so. I doubt that I was one of those 8 or I did some wrong vote pattern oO | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
That's the first vote on sandroba. It's from jackal, VE was the 3rd one, I was the 4th one and annul was something later. With annuls vote sandroba was at 7 votes and I know by heart that annul was still 1 vote ahead of sandroba by the time risen came in and voted sandroba (or we counted wrong back than). So that makes 7-8 (you probably were right about the 9 to lynch because I also remember that annul was only 1 short to being lynched). That means that sandroba was the only one on annul and we had little influence about getting people off annul while having a LOT of influence of people getting off sandroba. So we got risen on sandroba as well, made it 8-8 and that's the point 3 townies voted sandroba as well: turth, refallen, V7, none of them wanted to vote sandroba but did so because they had to if I remember correctly. We only had one guy being able to unvote annul. So if 1 townie hero voted annul because he thought sandroba is not going to get lynched that'd be still fine because sandroba could have unvoted. With 2 hero townies we are doomed so we wanted to get more people on sandroba because again, we had way more influence about what happened with sandroba than we had about what was going to happen with annul if townies start to behave weird. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
It doesn't matter though because the way we did it ended up paying off. We could have done it differently, maybe slightly more efficiently..but when Bum took the bait, our course was set. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On December 19 2011 11:57 VisceraEyes wrote: The only reason I switched was because Annul was paranoid about town reacting to Toad unvoting...and later Annul when 1 more townie voted Sand. Annul wanted to make sure that even if town reacted, we secured the no-lynch. I agreed to it because Annul had proven (to me) that he can play scum. I had even planned to NOT switch in spite of telling everyone I was, but then I got paranoid that town would react and when the time came, I pulled the trigger. It doesn't matter though because the way we did it ended up paying off. We could have done it differently, maybe slightly more efficiently..but when Bum took the bait, our course was set. LOL thought the exact same thing. Would have been hilarious if everyone did that | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On December 19 2011 11:55 Toadesstern wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291512¤tpage=10#194 That's the first vote on sandroba. It's from jackal, VE was the 3rd one, I was the 4th one and annul was something later. With annuls vote sandroba was at 7 votes and I know by heart that annul was still 1 vote ahead of sandroba by the time risen came in and voted sandroba (or we counted wrong back than). So that makes 7-8 (you probably were right about the 9 to lynch because I also remember that annul was only 1 short to being lynched). That means that sandroba was the only one on annul and we had little influence about getting people off annul while having a LOT of influence of people getting off sandroba. So we got risen on sandroba as well, made it 8-8 and that's the point 3 townies voted sandroba as well: turth, refallen, V7, none of them wanted to vote sandroba but did so because they had to if I remember correctly. We only had one guy being able to unvote annul. So if 1 townie hero voted annul because he thought sandroba is not going to get lynched that'd be still fine because sandroba could have unvoted. With 2 hero townies we are doomed so we wanted to get more people on sandroba because again, we had way more influence about what happened with sandroba than we had about what was going to happen with annul if townies start to behave weird. nvm | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
Worst town moves from my perspective. Claiming DT. Boom death sentence. Claiming Medic. Boom Role block. Allowing Palmar to die the second time we hit him. Should have been on him V7. Considering a no lynch today. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
At some point I even thought he might be crazy enough to claim RB-immune-medic to hide another power role beneath it because he thinks that everyone else thinks that he's bullshitting. That's the reason we roleblocked him one night because I was scared he might be the roleblocker town had or what-ever else could be still out there trying to cover it by being as weird as you can get, which blue's don't do. That move really made it easy to defend annul, stopped the talk about annul and made everyone discuss drazerk's move instead, which probably was a reason we got another nolynch on annul | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
This game revolved around the importance of persuasion and was intended to give nobody a free ride. Town only had 1 investigative role, but had a wide variety of options for punishing bad play through 2 night vig hits and a day vig. Furthermore, the jack mason ability could have been quite powerful, if used correctly (I'm thinking, day 2, mason someone like Radfield to form a hidden alliance and see how the mafia react). Mafia had the usual roleblocker, a hidden vote to strengthen a post and analysis focused playstyle, and more members than usual, allowing them to be more bold in pushing the mafia agenda. Unfortunately, for of a variety of reasons, town and mafia made bad judgment calls that wildly affected the course of the game. First of all, looking at the setup from the mafia's point of view, we see that mafia has a higher number of members from a usual game, and on top of that, had a bigger vote advantage. Now given that this is extended majority, the vote advantage is weaker than if it were plurality or majority, but combined with the other roles, the mafia had all the tools needed to play a long term game and shut down bad town plays. As usual, roleblocker gives the mafia the ability to stop senseless blue claims from the town (there were plenty), and a medic counteracted vigs that were too open with their shots. Jack provided some versatility in a day shot, as well as the overlooked and underrated mason ability. In addition, the extra vote gave mafia the ability to change the game as long as they are able to post actively and keep the town in chaos. In this game, the mafia played too aggressively and basically claimed victory even though it was not over. While 4 mislynches usually results in a guaranteed mafia victory, the mafia got owned by medics, who made two critical saves that caused the game to be dragged out longer. Of course, you cannot ignore the fact that there were really only 2 mislynches in this game, as days 2 and 4 were no lynches (although thats two less potential mafia lynched, that is also 2 more townies saved, which effectively buys you 1 game day). So while this game does seem close when it lasted that long, mafia really would have won by strong margin by Day 6 if not for the combination of factors that slowed the town deaths. Back to the overall strategy, mafia placed all their eggs into one basket in a setup where this is clearly not the optimal choice. In games with high KP, mafia have a stronger incentive to keep their numbers high, as keeping their high KP ends the game quicker. However, in this game, there was no such emphasis on preserving numbers, as the KP difference is not that drastic. Mafia could have lost 2 members and still kept their KP. In this situation, mafia stuck out almost all their members to save annul in a case where annul should have already been doomed. Losing annul wouldn't have been a huge blow to the mafia, as he could still have used his dayvig shot (most directly powerful jack ability) before his death. Day 1 can be split up into two parts. In the first 24 hours, town is off on a good foot. While they didn't take advantage of the atmosphere and information in the most efficient way, the discussion was tame, had little mafia interference, and was town favored (I'm assuming this is how syllogism was able to catch annul). However, the second half of the day completely exploded and shifted the game into a mafia-favored atmosphere. Palmar/vaderseven's over aggressiveness leads to panic and hasty decisionmaking by vaderseven, leading to town deaths and chaos as town scrambles to find a lynch target. Besides syllogism's shot on annul (its good that you could keep cool in the heated Palmar/vaderseven situation and focus on what was really going on day 1), mafia are in a good position at the start of Day 2. Palmar/vaderseven completely derailed the town discussion onto petty and irrelevant discussions and buried the mistakes that mafia made in the first half of day 1. With that said, Day 2 was a huge blunder for the mafia. First off, the hit claim by annul is counterproductive and completely goes against the mafia win condition. Yes, townies have no reason to call a hit when they are saved. But as mafia, there is little reason to do so, especially if you were saved by a MAFIA doctor, in which case there really is no way town could know about this hit otherwise. It is pretty obvious that syllogism was anti-annul the previous night, but syllogism never clearly indicated that he was going to shoot annul, so i highly doubt anyone would be suspicious if syllo died and no hit was claimed. Annul claiming a hit basically got the town back on track and called unnecessary attention on himself, attention that had gone away due to the day 1 palmar/v7 chaos. Especially if you look at the rest of the hits, it seems pretty clear that claiming a hit is just asking for people to notice that it doesnt make sense. syllogism and supersoft were townies who were posting strongly and were making sense in the thread. A look back at annul's day 1 posting shows it is extremely anti-town. He calls out prplhz for a "blue claim" (which should be an immediate red flag in everyones mind - why does town want to expose blue claims? mafia certainly want to cause chaos and derail town from relevant discussions). Multiple people, including Radfield and syllogism, point out this weird play. Certainly, a mafia hit on annul makes no sense given the other two hits. This case shows an example of mafia being too pro-town and not considering if their actions further their own agenda. Townies naturally would want to share this information, but if you look at the mafia's motives, sharing this information is both unnecessary and counterproductive. The only possible reason you would want to claim is to get some possible town credit, but given annul's day 1 play AND the fact that he was already under suspicion, this claim does nothing more than self incriminate. Futhermore, mafia digs themselves deeper into a hole with the setup with annul/Toad, which should instantly paint both players red. Toad's compliance with this shenanigan, as well as his reaction and defensiveness following the play should have instantly made people suspicious, and annul's choice to defer Toad and fail to just shoot Palmar in the face was absolutely damning. On top of this, Toad was under almost no suspicion (although he really should have been given his day 1 posting), making this an unnecessarily risky play. It was pretty obvious that Palmar controlled the anonymous vote, and since Palmar contributed to 2 of the 11 votes needed for majority on annul, shooting Palmar would have bought annul time, gotten rid of a dangerous townie, and could potentially be defended as a town action given the weakness of Palmar's day 1 play. As it turns out, Palmar was saved at night, survived another day, and was a beast at pushing annul's the next day. Shooting Palmar would have been consistent with annul's anti-Palmar campaigning, and would have forced the town to gather another two extra votes in order to kill Annul. Given vaderseven's insistence that annul was town given his role, that could have potentially even given annul breathing room of 3 votes. Even if town had put the pieces together and annul had gotten lynched, mafia still would not have been bad off, as they are nowhere near the KP loss threshold, and wouldn't have given up any more members. Mafia had the chance to off Palmar at a very low cost (potentially a benefit) but instead went on a risky plan that gave up too many members and pretty much put them all in on annul. Day 3 was fine with the redFF wagon, as town really should have realized at this point that annul is red. On Day 4, mafia had a pretty amazing power play that could ensure that the game ends quickly instead of dragging on after annul's death. It was quite risky, but given that the mafia had already chosen to play an all in strategy revolving around annul, it is understandable why they would go through this plan to save him. Looking in context: There are 16 players, so its 9 to lynch Annul leads the vote with 11 votes. Only 2 of his voters are mafia, so the mafia don't have the option of just unvoting annul at the last minute to secure the no lynch. With this background, it is absolutely a good move to arrange a counterwagon. Perhaps I would have chosen to have the counterwagon on Toad (who should already be under suspicion) as opposed to sandroba, but the idea is correct. Mafia arrange a counterwagon where they can place more of their own members on the wagon. This saves annul by destroying the foundation holding that lynch together and splitting the vote. Then, since the sandroba wagon is comprised mostly of mafia votes, mafia pull out the rug by unvoting and securing a no lynch. The problem though, is that mafia overcommitted to the plan and thought they had it won right there. Pulling off this sort of plan you have to strike a very fine balance between having members on and off the wagon. Ideally, you want sandroba to barely reach majority, so that you only need 1 unvote to secure the no lynch. Presumably, this would be someone who is already suspicious, such as Toad. Looking at the Day 4 vote count: On December 04 2011 20:05 ZBot wrote: Current votes: sandroba (7): Jackal58, bumatlarge, annul (5): hyshes (3): Jackal58 (1): annul vaderseven (0): Drazerk (0): Voting ends at December 15 2011 13:00. (It's over.) It takes 9 votes to lynch. But annul and risen are the 7th and 8th voters. This runs the risk of having too many votes on sandroba by the time the day ends, which forces more mafia to out themselves by unvoting (only the mafia who unvote at the last minute are outed, as you can't tell the difference between a townie on the wagon or a mafia on the wagon otherwise (at least not with some deeper analysis)). I would say that mafia should have waited a bit longer to see if they needed more fuel to throw onto the sandroba bandwagon. You already have bum/kingjames pushing the sandroba switch, and you could easily have VE/Toad do the same. You had over an hour left in the day as this was going on, and could have used more persuasion to get townies to jump on the wagon. Use the fear of a no lynch to push people to vote sandroba, and try to keep town from placing too many votes on sandroba. Given that in the early game, town never had a solid majority on anyone, you run the risk of having too many votes on sandroba by putting all your members on the wagon. Of course, it is difficult to determine how many townies will indeed switch over to the lynch at the last minute, but I think it could have happened without Risen switching to sandroba from hyshes. Regardless though, the last unvote from VE was unnecessary, as sandroba would have still survived with 8 votes. That outed VE, leading to a closer game than necessary. Although the sandroba switch was a difficult switch to accurately gauge and was suboptimally executed, the idea was very solid. Unfortuantely mafia revealed more than they needed to, but of course the gloating after the lynch doesn't help either. From then on, mafia got owned by good (lucky?) medic play. Shows the importance of how ignoring town blue roles can come back to haunt you (Refallen had already claimed medic in the thread days before, but still managed to make a save on kingjames after mafia decided to roleblock v7 instead). In this game, the game flow was dictated more by the mafia than by the town, but there are still a couple things to note about the town's play. Town was doing great early in day 1. Things were actually going in the right way, and things were pretty tame. Radfield could have been more aggressive and pushed a more direct agenda instead of sitting back and asking all the questions (which can stimulate discussion, but leaves the town somewhat leaderless as they don't know what you're up to). You had some solid gut suspicions on Jackal (as Curu said, his lack of aggression should have instantly put him on the radar) and annul (whose focus on the prplhz's blue "slip" should have been immediately seen as anti-town), but your questions were all over the place and you never pushed forward in a single direction, which sorta led you to be ignored by town in later days. After seeing you say "this person's posts are off", I kept waiting for some more serious analysis/scrutiny to appear, but you never pushed anything and subsequently let your hunches get lost in the drama fest that is the rest of the game. When you find something peculiar, its probably peculiar for a reason. Focus on it and analyze it instead of letting it remain a hunch. Mafia are unlikely to give themselves up so easily. You need to force them to make mistakes and make them know that you are watching for strange moves they make. Then, following the Palmar/vaderseven debacle, you pretty much lost control over the thread and went into day 2 with pretty much all the wrong reads, but fortunately you got back on track after seeing annul's big mistake. Vaderseven's hasty shot on soap was not optimal, but was a decent choice. As a lurker, soap could hardly have been categorized as helpful to the town, so the shot makes sense from a town point of view. I was really shocked to see how many people were still suspicious of vaderseven because of this. Town definitely could have won this game at the end. When it comes down to a small number of players at the endgame, mafia really should have a tough time, especially if there is so much information in the thread like in this game. Although from the town's point of view, a no lynch in this situation is a reasonable although fatal decision (you didn't know that Jackal had extra votes), I think town should have definitely stepped up to the plate and thrown down the analysis before deciding to no lynch. Assuming a no lynch occurs, you know that the mafia gets 1 kill. Posting your analysis of the situation even though you plan to no lynch is critical so that you can gather the appropriate information for the next day. Jackal would be somewhat crazy to leave you alive if you had analyzed and stated the prior day that you were going to vote him the next day. Of course, this is not always the case, but essentially the lack of discussion preceding the decision to no lynch lost you the opportunity to gain information from the night kill should a no lynch have occurred. In other news, roles do not equal alignment! I was pretty annoyed at this game for the blatant disregard for the role PM comparisons rule despite the fact that multiple warnings were given. Fortunately, there were both a town and a mafia jack in this game, but I think this is a good lesson that you shouldn't spend all your time determining whether your roles match or not. It doesn't tell you anything about a person's alignment. It is pretty clear looking at annul's play that his use of the day vig was definitely not a town action. Dont let your biases about what you think a role does/does not do affect your analysis of what actually happens in the game. People should be accountable for how they use a role, not what it actually is. I'm disappointed at the lack of analysis in this town. Given the fact that there was only 1 investigative role in the game, town really needed some good analysis (or the mafia giving themselves away) in order to win. Unfortunately, I only saw maybe 1 or 2 good analyses the entire game. People tend to get caught up in the details without looking at the overall consequences of actions. Pages and pages of posts were devoted to things that didn't really matter (whether annul handpicked Toad to "choose" his vig shot, whether vaderseven and annul's roles were indeed the same, etc.), and this really made the thread spiral out of control. 170+ pages is simply ridiculous for a 25 player game, especially when 100 of those pages occur in the first 2 game days. People spammed too many one liners and were spewing every little thought that came into their head and responded to every little post in the thread as if through stream of consciousness. Like we keep saying over and over, you don't need to reply to everything in the thread. If something isn't relevant to your agenda, ignore it. The sheer amount of irrelevant information in this thread made it almost unreadable. Anyway, this was an interesting game to host, if not aggravating at times. I enjoyed the change from hosting semi-open games to closed setups, as it allows for more creative setup design, but I'd like to know your thoughts on how interesting the setup was from your point of view, as I tried to introduce some elements (extra votes, jack) that I don't usually include in semi-open setups. Sadly, I will have to deal with bans/modkills, but I'll do that later given the length of this post. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
1) Why was I suspicious d1? I thought I was doing quite ok d1 and most people thought so as well. I can see that I did a couple of slips (after d1) and obvisously everything with annul made me look like mafia but I don't know what made me look mafia on d1. 2) As already mentioned when talking to wherebugs I think the votecount you quoted is wrong or weird. Both VE and myself were voting sandroba early on and you mentioned we were not? 3) The roleblock on V7 was a mistake of ours. We thought that if we kill refallen the save he does will not happen and since we did not have a better target we wanted to play it safe and just rb V7. I even asked you about it in a pm but I guess it was too late :p So yeah, we thought a refallen kill nullifies his protection and therefore we thought we do not have to RB refallen. Those are the things I just saw and while 1) is a question I'd like to see the answer to improve and 2) and 3) are some things that we just saw in a complete other way resulting in bullshit of our own :p | ||
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GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
A question on your analysis regarding my day 1 play - Am I really that aggressive as town? | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On December 19 2011 12:59 GGQ wrote: I only read the last few days of the game. I still would've voted jackal. You always vote jackal, people. Unless you're in the game of course. <3 | ||
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Cyber_Cheese
Australia3615 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
I enjoyed the game for my first back in a while, thx Incog and WBG for hosting. I thought the setup provided a lot of possibility and would definitely play it again. Was there a reason for having a parity cop vs having just a normal cop? Because given the 2 jacks in the setup, there was a lot of potential for confusion and I think a normal cop would have been just fine as far as balance goes if that's the reason. | ||
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Curu
Canada2817 Posts
On December 19 2011 13:05 Jackal58 wrote: Thank you for putting the time and effort into putting this together Incognito. Unlike some of my red brethern I don't feel like we were at any extreme disadvantage. And ya the Annul claim was less than optimal. I believe I asked him "wtf are you thinking" . A question on your analysis regarding my day 1 play - Am I really that aggressive as town? Yes lol. Do you remember Werewolves? I was so sure you were scum because you had rabid blind aggression towards Nisani who was quite obviously Town. You flipping Town blew my mind. Likewise in Kurumi's game, you were attacking people and pushing them hard. After seeing you attack Palmar so mildly and so timidly in this game I was sure after your first post in this game you were scum. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On December 19 2011 13:22 Curu wrote: Yes lol. Do you remember Werewolves? I was so sure you were scum because you had rabid blind aggression towards Nisani who was quite obviously Town. You flipping Town blew my mind. Likewise in Kurumi's game, you were attacking people and pushing them hard. After seeing you attack Palmar so mildly and so timidly in this game I was sure after your first post in this game you were scum. Nisani wasn't obvious anything at that point. And I think I understand what you're saying. I was very assertive. Not aggressive. | ||
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Refallen
452 Posts
 Should I have claimed medic? | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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