Match Making Rating Tool - Page 168

korona

1098 Posts

September 19 2013 01:15 GMT

#3341

On September 19 2013 03:55 Nelvalhil wrote:
When does the MMR calc is finally going to calculate my MMR it still says need more data >

Tha.link

Theres the link of a screenshot of my MMR stats

Here is some info regarding when your MMR cannot be calculated reliably (capping zone). Also note that enabling memory reader dramatically improves changes to get 'good games' (of course if you are capped, then most of opponents are likely too): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334561&currentpage=162#3226

Also make sure you have the latest version of the MMR tool as older versions cannot parse Blizzard's current web profiles fully.

EDIT: Regarding the MMR decay analysis. The link I gave as an answer for this unrelated question made me remember the date (end of July) when Blizzard mentioned in v 2.0.10 patch notes that "Fixed a rare issue that could cause a player’s MMR to decrease after winning a matchmaking game." Have to consider also that date when I have time to continue analysis.

tresquarts

Spain16 Posts

September 19 2013 17:11 GMT

#3342

Hi!

I'm a new user of MMR Stats, I didn't know the sc2gears plugin and it likes me a lot.

I'm not a good player, I'm gold and my MMR seems to be around 660. Then I am a low level gold.

In was platinum for almost two years and i got depromoted in the last season. A question for people that is user for a long time, did you notice any change in your MMR and league in the last season change? Is perhaps that there is less people everyday and only skilled players are in the Bnet?

Thanks folks!

korona

1098 Posts

September 19 2013 18:07 GMT

#3343

On September 20 2013 02:11 tresquarts wrote:
Hi!

I'm a new user of MMR Stats, I didn't know the sc2gears plugin and it likes me a lot.

I'm not a good player, I'm gold and my MMR seems to be around 660. Then I am a low level gold.

In was platinum for almost two years and i got depromoted in the last season. A question for people that is user for a long time, did you notice any change in your MMR and league in the last season change? Is perhaps that there is less people everyday and only skilled players are in the Bnet?

Thanks folks!

Read my older messages. There seems to be a likely MMR decay feature or bug since HotS launch. More research is needed to understand how it behaves (what triggers it, how the decay is determined). It appears to happen after a 1v1 account has been inactive for some time - at least accounts having been inactive for three weeks or more seem to be in "danger-zone". It seems not to be related season change but can happen any time. But as demotions can only happen in placement matches + matchmaker primarily seems to pair you with opponents from your own league who have similar MMR, typical players would notice nothing (except possible feeling of opponent quality dropping or ranked opponents from two or three leagues lower who have played lots of games (enough games after blank MMR --> MMR changes in "normal" rate. And it is not season lock period)) until the next placements. But the MMR decay seems not to affect all who were inactive (note I am only speaking of 1v1, but if there is such feature regarding it, it is likely other modes have something similar too).

tresquarts

Spain16 Posts

September 19 2013 21:24 GMT

#3344

On September 20 2013 03:07 korona wrote:

Read my older messages. There seems to be a likely MMR decay feature or bug since HotS launch. More research is needed to understand how it behaves (what triggers it, how the decay is determined). It appears to happen after a 1v1 account has been inactive for some time - at least accounts having been inactive for three weeks or more seem to be in "danger-zone". It seems not to be related season change but can happen any time. But as demotions can only happen in placement matches + matchmaker primarily seems to pair you with opponents from your own league who have similar MMR, typical players would notice nothing (except possible feeling of opponent quality dropping or ranked opponents from two or three leagues lower who have played lots of games (enough games after blank MMR --> MMR changes in "normal" rate. And it is not season lock period)) until the next placements. But the MMR decay seems not to affect all who were inactive (note I am only speaking of 1v1, but if there is such feature regarding it, it is likely other modes have something similar too).

Thanks for the answer!

I was inactive for 4 weeks because of summer holidays, except 1 day in the middle.
I'll read your previous messages to get a better idea.

Nelvalhil

6 Posts

September 21 2013 17:32 GMT

#3345

On September 19 2013 10:15 korona wrote:

Show nested quote +

First of all, thanks for taking the time to reply.

I've read that post and according to that post, if you are in the lower ranking of your league it should take a while even with the memory off. Now I have enabled the memory reading and also I am in the top 8 of my league (Gold,5 ) Do you know anything else what might be bugging it? Thanks

korona

1098 Posts

September 21 2013 19:08 GMT

#3346

On September 22 2013 02:32 Nelvalhil wrote:

Show nested quote +

Rank is not a guarantee that you have comparable MMR in regards of the borders of that league. Hypothetically you could have lower league MMR and be top-1 in your higher league division. Especially now as there seems to be MMR decay feature, it is even more likely that many top ranks are filled by such players.

I will give few examples (in the examples it is presumed that opponents have played enough so that their adjusted points have increased close to their typical range & opponents have played enough after blank MMR start & it is not season lock period).

Scenario 1: If you have mid to high gold MMR, then most of your gold (_same_ league) opponents are uncapped and your MMR can often be calculated. If you face higher league player, then he is likely capped (your MMR cannot be calculated).

Scenario 2: If you are low to mid Gold range then most of your gold opponents are capped and your MMR cannot be calculated. Also you don't usually face silver opponent's because if they already had gold MMR they would have been promoted. If you face a silver opponent he likely is uncapped and your MMR can be calculated.

Scenario 3: You have mid to high silver MMR. All your gold+ opponents are capped and your MMR cannot be calculated. But your silver opponents are likely uncapped and your MMR can be calculated from those matches. You will not face bronze players. As matchmaker seems to match you primarily with opponents from your league who have similar MMR, your most opponents are still from gold league.

Scenario 4: You are low to mid silver. All your gold+ opponents are capped (MMR cannot be calculated). Also most your silver opponents are capped (MMR cannot be calculated). You will not likely face bronze players (if you do that bronze is likely uncapped and MMR can be calculated).

Scenario 5 & 6: Similar principles regarding bronze MMR ranges.

korona

1098 Posts

September 25 2013 17:05 GMT

#3347

I checked current season's (S15) HotS offsets once again. There is still little data regarding the three lowest offsets, but based on that data it seems there was no offset changes. Also the MMR graphs look 'natural' even in the lowest leagues --> no offset changes (or very small) between S14 & S15.

There is only one Chinese account with 'good games'. It was nice to note that it's graph looked natural. Thus it is likely that Chinese server uses same offsets as the other servers.

There has been only one notable offset change during HotS-period and it happened between S13 & S14 (S12 & S13 had same offsets, S14 & S15 have same offsets). Thus the league distribution changes we are seeing between last season and current season are caused by other things, such as the MMR decay.

--

I checked WoL accounts for the first time in few seasons. Blizzard seems to still use old pre-HotS WoL offsets for WoL. The graphs looked natural & promotions happened where they were expected to happen. This is good, because there is too little data to calculate new offsets for WoL if they change (via guesses & fine-tuning based on graphs it might be possible, but potentially would take too much time for the effort).

--

Haven't had time to continue MMR decay analysis. When I have time & results I will share them.

Excalibur_Z

United States12237 Posts

September 26 2013 03:06 GMT

#3348

Actually the WoL percentages, and by extension the league boundaries, are the same as HotS now. They never publicly announced whether WoL would inherit the HotS distribution, but turns out it has.

korona

1098 Posts

September 26 2013 03:35 GMT

#3349

On September 26 2013 12:06 Excalibur_Z wrote:
Actually the WoL percentages, and by extension the league boundaries, are the same as HotS now. They never publicly announced whether WoL would inherit the HotS distribution, but turns out it has.

The data seems to suggests otherwise. I quickly ran the offset calculation for last season's & this season's data. Ten data points for last season's data and 3 for this seasons data so far (few are incorrect even without closer check). But the good looking figures are much higher than HotS ones. For example most diam-master offset values (4 out of 5. 5th is close too) suggest the value would be in same range as during WoL. This season's 2 values suggest slightly lower value, but still higher than the current HotS value.

Also the figures from first and second season were in line of the old WoL offsets if I remember correctly. Clearly higher than the HotS ones at least. There were more WoL players back then and also more datapoints

I have to recheck the current season & last season user graphs again. As the currently set HotS & WoL offsets differ so much, it should be reflected in the graphs.

Edit: With quick test also the old WoL offsets seem to produce more accurate graphs than the the current HotS offsets. But will have to go through more accounts.

Edit 2: Old WoL offsets seem to give better results with new WoL data with one exception - bronze-silver offset has been changed. I did not have any datapoints for Br-Si offset from seasons S12 & S13. But as most WoL players have dropped to lowest leagues I have one Br-Si datapoint from S14 & one from S15. Both suggest a value that is higher than current HotS offset but lower than the original. With quick test it seems to fix graphs (bronze portion) for bronze players that rose to silver or higher, but will need to fine-tune that value later.

Edit 3: Note that this post discusses only WoL offsets.

Edit 4 (2013-09-28): I do have fine-tuned bronze-silver offset WoL. It has been tested with S13, S14 and S15 data and the graphs look nice with it. But I likely won't push the new value via new DB file for a while. I noticed that the MMR tool uses hardcoded offset values for S12 & S13 and it would show incorrect calculations for those two seasons, if I would update the offsets. As bronze-silver offset mostly affects those who are in bronze range (only few users), I find it less problematic than others wondering why their old matches give incorrect calculations. When the next version of the tool is published (may take some time (potentially weeks), I will update that offset value.

BurningRanger

Germany303 Posts

September 26 2013 08:51 GMT

#3350

I'm rather curious about the lower offsets as well. I'm in Gold on EU and constantly get Gold opponents. My MMR graph was at very low Gold for a few weeks and i even dropped into Silver MMR a week ago (darn MMR decayed opponents

). Still not getting any Silver opponents like you'd expect.

leopardb

Germany92 Posts

September 26 2013 12:12 GMT

#3351

Hi, it seems i have a problem here :

13:51:57 FATALERROR WEBGRABBER Wrong Season! Update your DB File! READ: -1 EXPECTED: 15

LOG FILE:
+ Show Spoiler +

13:50:13 MMR-Stats 9.6
13:50:13 --------INIT START--------
13:50:13 OK Encoding: OK
13:50:13 OK Sc2Gears auto-save is enabled.
13:50:13 Loading HOTS DB file...
13:50:13 OK Loading DB version 15.1 done
13:50:14 OK DB up to date!
13:50:14 Loading character profiles:
13:50:14 Profile: http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2514216/1/leopardb/
13:50:14 Profile: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/4590209/1/leopardb/
13:50:14 Profile: http://kr.battle.net/sc2/ko/profile/4287947/1/leopardb/
13:50:14 OK Settings loaded!
13:50:14 OK Timeclient: Systemtime offset: 0 sec
13:50:14 OK Gamedata: 194 Games loaded.
13:50:14 Loading Archive...
13:50:14 OK Gamedata: 787 Games loaded.
13:50:14 Memory scanner is enabled
13:50:14 OK Triggers ready!
13:50:16 OK: Program is up to date
13:50:16 --------INIT END--------
13:51:7 --------------------------
13:51:7 Game Start detected
13:51:7 Searching memory for character profiles for game HotS
13:51:7 Reading Memory ...OK
13:51:7 Ramscanner: name1 : InSaNe
13:51:7 Ramscanner: id1 : 1-3420525
13:51:7 Ramscanner: name2 : leopardb
13:51:7 Ramscanner: id2 : 1-2514216
13:51:7 OK Found Memory-Profile in Active-Profiles!
13:51:47 Pre-trigger: Reading web profiles
13:51:52 Webgrabber: Player true
13:51:57 FATALERROR WEBGRABBER Wrong Season! Update your DB File! READ: -1 EXPECTED: 15
13:51:57 Webgrabber: Opponent false
13:51:57 Pre-trigger: Done reading web profiles
13:51:57 Pre-Trigger: player 1:
http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2514216/1/leopardb/
13:51:57 Pre-Trigger: player 2:
http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/3420525/1/InSaNe/
13:51:57 Pre-Trigger done
14:2

Post-trigger: Reading web profiles
14:2:14 Webgrabber: Player true
14:2:20 FATALERROR WEBGRABBER Wrong Season! Update your DB File! READ: -1 EXPECTED: 15
14:2:20 Webgrabber: Opponent false
14:2:20 Post-trigger: Done reading web profiles
14:2:20 Calculating adjusted points for the players (either Alg. A or B needs to succceed for certain player)
14:2:20 DATA Alg. A : success: http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2514216/1/leopardb/
14:2:20 DATA Alg.B: failed, No Bonus Win: http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2514216/1/leopardb/
14:2:20 A 17 B -9999

14:2:20
14:2:20 Adjusted calculator ERROR: Invalid player data: http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/3420525/1/InSaNe/
14:2:20 Gamecheck: true
14:2:20 GAME:
HotS
14:2:20 PREPLAYER 1:
Data: true
Reading: true
Adjusted: true
Dmmr: false
id: 1-2514216
playerlink: http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2514216/1/leopardb/
game: HotS
server: EU
league: gold
division_name: hyperion sigma
Main race: r
Game race: unkown
gamedate: 26/9/2013
mapname: Derelict Watcher TE
totalbonuspool: 485
Wins: 74
Looses: 85
points: 437
bonus: 0
change_points: -9
adjusted_points: -48

14:2:20 PREPLAYER 2:
Data: false
Reading: false
Adjusted: false
Dmmr: false
id: 1-3420525
playerlink: http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/3420525/1/InSaNe/
game: HotS
server: EU
league: platinum
division_name: khaydarin kilo
Main race: t
Game race: unkown
gamedate: 26/9/2013
mapname: Derelict Watcher TE
totalbonuspool: 485
Wins: 49
Looses: 26
points: 476
bonus: 58
change_points: 0
adjusted_points: -9999

14:2:20 POSTPLAYER 1:
Data: false
Reading: false
Adjusted: true
Dmmr: false
id: 1-2514216
playerlink: http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2514216/1/leopardb/
game: HotS
server: EU
league: gold
division_name: hyperion sigma
Main race: r
Game race: t
gamedate: 26/9/2013
mapname: Akilon Wastes
totalbonuspool: 485
Wins: 75
Looses: 85
points: 454
bonus: 0
change_points: 17
adjusted_points: -31

14:2:20 POSTPLAYER 2:
Data: true
Reading: true
Adjusted: false
Dmmr: false
id: 1-3420525
playerlink: http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/3420525/1/InSaNe/
game: HotS
server: EU
league: platinum
division_name: khaydarin kilo
Main race: t
Game race: p
gamedate: 26/9/2013
mapname: Akilon Wastes
totalbonuspool: 485
Wins: 49
Looses: 26
points: 476
bonus: 58
change_points: 0
adjusted_points: -9999

14:2:20 Dataset: (GAME: HotS)
--- GAMESTART ---
TIME: 1380196889867
VALID: true
Result for player 1: W
--- GAMEEND ---

14:2:20 POST-Trigger done
14:2:20 Data quality needs to be 100% to be able to calculate MMR
14:2:20 <FONT COLOR="DD0000">Data quality for calculating Player's MMR: 50% </font>
14:2:20 <FONT COLOR="DD0000">Data quality for calculating Opponent's MMR: 75% </font>
14:2:21 OK Uploader: game uploaded
14:2:21 Ladder Game Done!
14:2:21 --------------------------

korona

1098 Posts

September 26 2013 15:57 GMT

#3352

On September 26 2013 21:12 leopardb wrote:
Hi, it seems i have a problem here :

13:51:57 FATALERROR WEBGRABBER Wrong Season! Update your DB File! READ: -1 EXPECTED: 15

LOG FILE:
+ Show Spoiler +

The season number is read from the API (as Blizzard removed it from the web profiles in the beginning of this season). It seems season number has not been read for small percent of recent matches for multiple players --> API may not be answering promptly for all requests and thus that info cannot be fetched. Those matches will be set bad. Will have to monitor if this escalates, but the season check is needed especially during the season switch period, where it often takes long time for Blizzard to update the profiles (it is necessary to recognize if profiles are from old season if you are already playing games for new season).

korona

1098 Posts

September 26 2013 16:06 GMT

#3353

On September 26 2013 17:51 BurningRanger wrote:
I'm rather curious about the lower offsets as well. I'm in Gold on EU and constantly get Gold opponents. My MMR graph was at very low Gold for a few weeks and i even dropped into Silver MMR a week ago (darn MMR decayed opponents

). Still not getting any Silver opponents like you'd expect.

Even if the three lowest HotS offsets have been fine-tuned based on graphs (the data suggested little higher offset values), they should be close. But what you are likely seeing is that the matchmaker primarily picks opponents from your own league who have similar MMR and secondarily from the other leagues. This makes it harder to recognize when you approach the league border.

This can be easily be seen when you are promoted. Before promotion most of your opponents are from the lower league. But 'magically' after promotion match most of your opponents are from the higher league (even if your MMR starts dropping immediately after via loses).

Edit: this also makes it harder to notice mid season MMR decay as even after the decay large portion of your opponents are from the same league.

aluhadora

United States3 Posts

September 27 2013 01:25 GMT

#3354

Show nested quote +

I don't know if this changes anything, but I've been getting the same error, seemingly out of nowhere.

korona

1098 Posts

September 27 2013 03:04 GMT

#3355

On September 27 2013 10:25 aluhadora wrote:

Show nested quote +

I don't know if this changes anything, but I've been getting the same error, seemingly out of nowhere.

No need to notify. It is an Blizzard API issue. Indeed increased rate of API calls seem to fail Today, but still most of the times proper response is received (API responds with correct season number).

Thought I need to edit that error message so it would not suggest that DB file is old, if fetching the season number fails.

Edit: It seems some of the SC2 profiles have malfunctioning character profile. When that API profile page is called it returns consistently "Internal Server Error" for them. Wonder why...

Edit 2: And found reason. Users who use the new icons are affected by this: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/10103280258 US seems to have been fixed. Other servers suffer from it still.

fried_rice

198 Posts

September 29 2013 11:27 GMT

#3356

Ok, this is probably not possible but i'll ask anyway....so if I played a few games but forgot to launch SC2gears, can I manually add the games I played to the MMR stats tool? The games are less than a day old, so they are not like from other seasons or anything.

korona

1098 Posts

September 29 2013 14:08 GMT

#3357

On September 29 2013 20:27 fried_rice wrote:
Ok, this is probably not possible but i'll ask anyway....so if I played a few games but forgot to launch SC2gears, can I manually add the games I played to the MMR stats tool? The games are less than a day old, so they are not like from other seasons or anything.

No supported way to add games.

(Of course the save file is a text file and games can be manually added. But little too hard to explain and risk of normal users messing it up)

aluhadora

United States3 Posts

September 29 2013 20:36 GMT

#3358

I feel as though I've been somehow using this plugin incorrectly, I have played 103 games, with only 10 actually marked as "good games". I have the memory reader enabled, but it most of the time it marks the data quality as 75%. Is there anything I can do to actively improve on that?

+ Show Spoiler +

14:14:43 Calculating adjusted points for the players (either Alg. A or B needs to succceed for certain player)
14:14:43 DATA Alg. A : success: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/535232/1/aluhadora/
14:14:43 DATA Alg.B: failed, No Bonus Win: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/535232/1/aluhadora/
14:14:43 DATA Alg. A : success: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/1149659/1/GaussWaffle/
14:14:43 DATA Alg.B: failed, Unknown change points for player: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/1149659/1/GaussWaffle/
14:14:43 Gamecheck: true
14:14:43 POST-Trigger done
14:14:43 Data quality needs to be 100% to be able to calculate MMR
14:14:43 Data quality for calculating Player's MMR: 75%
14:14:43 Data quality for calculating Opponent's MMR: 75%

leopardb

Germany92 Posts

October 01 2013 15:34 GMT

#3359

i was wondering, i get nearly each time this :

"Alg.B: failed, No Bonus Win"
"Alg.B: failed, Unknown change points for player"

even when i can myself see there is either bonus win and/or change points. Would it benefit the tool and the data gathering to let the user enter what he can see in the client ? and which might not yet be updated on the bnet HTTP server ? because it seems it produces a lot of 75%/75% matches which in turn gives a quite inaccurate graph, like this one for instance (it was provided by getting a 100% accuracy, before it the graph was continuous) :

Maybe a power user mode ? i don't know, just asking :D

Thx for your work !

korona

1098 Posts

October 01 2013 16:17 GMT

#3360

On October 02 2013 00:34 leopardb wrote:
Hi

i was wondering, i get nearly each time this :

Show nested quote +

Maybe a power user mode ? i don't know, just asking :D

Thx for your work !

Like it says couple of lines before those 'alg B failed' messages it is enough if either A or B succeed. B fails most of the time as it only uses post match data. Only if that player wins and has bonus pool left after the match it succeeds (and few other very rare special cases).

In the '75% games' the adjusted points & change points have been recorded correctly, but the opponent is capped and your MMR cannot be calculated (A & B are calculating match change points from which bonus points have been removed).

Most of the upward spikes caused by data errors are caused by 1 point difference regarding change points. They happen when the match ends near bonus pool increase tick. Yes there are fail saves that set the match bad if match ends too near the bonus pool tick, but still some cases are missed. Actually I fine-tuned those fail save algorithms little bit few weeks ago (likely see daylight in a future version). Also worth to remember if you are missing games, the graph can have jumps here and there when the MMR is corrected based on next good game (I seem to remember that your account had missing games at least in last season's data).

On September 30 2013 05:36 aluhadora wrote:
I feel as though I've been somehow using this plugin incorrectly, I have played 103 games, with only 10 actually marked as "good games". I have the memory reader enabled, but it most of the time it marks the data quality as 75%. Is there anything I can do to actively improve on that?

+ Show Spoiler +

This is normal nowadays if your MMR is in the low range of your league (or in lower leagues). You can read more: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334561&currentpage=162#3226 It is also worth noting that the estimate games are quite accurate too, even if there are plenty of matches between the 'good games' (if there are not multiple games missing)

Also people's MMR fluctuates quite a lot, league ranges are small compared to WoL & promotions are 'easy' (pretty much immediate when threshold is reached. During WoL there was a clear stabilization period before promotions). E.g. if your typical MMR is in middle of the lower league you could easily be promoted to higher league if you get some ~8 to 10 games win streak. --> Most players are likely in low to mid range of their leagues (or in lower league range). Please note this is speculation (I have not spent time to see how people's MMR's are distributed in their league's MMR range).

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