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OnceKing
United States939 Posts
In fact over half of your post seems to be a bunch of fluff justifying your reads on people who've already died, putting doubt onto Tolkien and then concluding that n1k0 is mafia because he had incorrect reads and lurking. Lurking can be scummy yes, but calling someone scum for being wrong is just nonsensical. Tell me, why is theDragoon town? | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 19 2014 06:27 Amiko wrote: n1k0 n1k0, I don't think I've pushed on your actions very much. Your posts don't give me to much to work with, which I dislike. Let's start here: 1) Given the information you have right now, who are three people you think could be potential lynches tomorrow and why? 2) I put a post above discussing Robik's vote. What do you think of my analysis on that vote? 3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently. If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote? Sorry i want able to respond earlier, but here we go. 1) I feel like right now we should be looking hard at the lurkers, Valenious, Beneather and myself mainly because of the lowest amount of information in order to form reads. Valenious Right now i feel like hes the most likely to be scum, this is because i feel like his posts have been the less comitted ones out of all (mainly being defensive ones), he avoided jumping on any of the 3 likely lynches on day 1 (myself, LT, Cav) and kept his vote on Robik, he could've saved Cav by switching to me or LT (who he said would've been his other choice with Amiko if he didnt vote Robik). + Show Spoiler + [..] Overall, I'd be choosing between IAmRobik / LT / Amiko. The issue with this is, I can't see LT having pushed so hard (see above) on Amiko that early in the game if they were bros. ##vote IAmRobik [..] LT/Amiko would be my other choices, and as I stated I cant get a solid read on LT, so i'm avoiding the LT/Amiko vote for the moment. The only townie move out of him i saw was pushing me to post my thoughts. Beneather I feel like he contriubited a little more than Valenious but not too much. He too like valenious voted for someone out of the 3 2 vote lynces which i see as a scummy move trying to keep uncommited, when he casted his vote and posted his case on Valenious he was not likely to be lynched since this was the first acussation being thrown at Valenious there wasnt much time left on the day for there to be a 2 vote switch onto Valenious. You asked me to list you three potential lynches for today but i dont have anyone that i read as likely scum outside of Valenous and Beneather at the moment. I do have a strong town read on LT, i would have a moderate town read on theDragoon if it wasnt because of his vote on LT because he thought he saw a mafia slip on him. 2) Im not what post were you referring to. 3) As i said in my suspisions of Beneather and Valenous i feel like scum would love to manage to get a misslynch without commiting at all on any of the likley lynches. I have a soft town read on you at the moment, the fact that Cav flipped green doesnt change my opinion of you because i feel like we both read him as scum because of the same reasons. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 20 2014 06:36 Valenius wrote: ebwop.. My name doesn't have an o in it.  sorry | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
If I'm lynched at the end of this day, and you've progressed nowhere on anyone else, I'm letting you know well in advance that you'll have wasted a day. Keep on me if you want, but don't let others get away scott-free. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 20 2014 06:33 N1k0 wrote: Beneather I feel like he contriubited a little more than Valenious I would however like any form of back-up on this point. I feel like I've contributed spades more than Beneather. Am I alone in this thought? | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
Could you please clarify the wording on this following quote? Are you referring to LT or OK, when saying your wrong? I presume OK, but it changes my read on that sentence. You are right, i was referring to OK. Still on n1k0. In your response to Tolkiens questions about your first real post you brought up that LT saying what good could come out of his lynch.. on Day1, with an undetermined amount of mafia, no. That’s not a good town play, by either of you. Following a lynch policy for 2 days, also allows for 2 mafia kills, leading to a total of 4 kills. Assuming one of you were mafia; You’ve either got 4:1 (initially 2 mafia) or 3:2 (initially 3 mafia. The 4:1 isn’t bad odds, and wouldn’t be a terrible solution. 3:2 would be ridiculous, going to lynch wrong and lose based on day 1 assumptions.. in what world is that good odds? Assuming neither of you were mafia, and you both had bad reads.. the game’s practically over. 3:2 (initial 2 mafia), or Dead start of night two (initial 3 mafia). 1 in 4 of those situations is one that i’d choose to be in. N1k0, if you’re agreeing with his post you either didn't think the numbers through, or blindly thought he was posting something logical and went along with it. I never said i thought it was a good play, i just said it led me to think him as town, since if he was scum and got lynched on day1 it would increase the town read on OK instead of a scummy read which was what LK was going for at the moment.(The only way i feel LK can be scum is if he and OK are both mafia and were bluffing really hard but i don't find that likely because it would result on a day 1 mafia lynch (especially if there are only 2 mafia, which i find more likely than 3). Town read on Cavalinho: My read on Cavalinho was correct, as stated in my post.. Feb 18, 04:34 You say you had a town read on Cavalinho, why didnt you switch your vote from Robik to me or LT in order to save him? | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
You say you had a town read on Cavalinho, why didnt you switch your vote from Robik to me or LT in order to save him? I answered this question in my previous post. If i’d have had a stronger read at the time, I’d have moved it to them. I didn’t. LT/Amiko were my other choices at the time, but neither read was strong enough. | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 20 2014 06:48 Valenius wrote: I would however like any form of back-up on this point. I feel like I've contributed spades more than Beneather. Am I alone in this thought? You have posted more than Beneather, but most of your post have defensive/ filler instead of giving your opinions (mainly on the topic of LT vs OK), im not saying Beneather contributed much more than you, i just feel like his post on you was a lot more committed than your posts. Of course this was before your big post tho. | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
On February 20 2014 07:27 Valenius wrote: I answered this question in my previous post. What you are saying is you had a stronger read on Robik being mafia than Cavalinho being town? | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 20 2014 07:39 N1k0 wrote: What you are saying is you had a stronger read on Robik being mafia than Cavalinho being town? Are those the words that came out of my mouth? Let's run this through logically. Let's say i'm 50/50 town/mafia on both on LT and Amiko. (Probably slightly biased either side, but for this 50/50 is good enough.) I have what I believe to be a reasonable read on Cavalinho as Town. I have at the time a reasonably strong read on Robik as mafia. I believe enough in my read to leave it on Robik. If I had a stronger read on either of the other two, I switch it. Switching without having a significantly higher read on either side is me flipping a coin. Do you disagree? There's a 5 in 7 (or 4 in 7) chance that either of them are town. Those odds aren't good enough for me to flip that coin. Now, let's take a look at when the votes were actually made. At the time of my leaving this thread to sleep, which I made a post about, the votes were: cavalinho: (2) Amiko, N1k0 IAmRobik: (1) Valenius Lord Tolkien: (1) OnceKing Beneather: (0) theDragoon: (0) Amiko: (1) Lord Tolkien OnceKing: (1) N1k0: (1) cavalinho Still haven't voted: theDragoon, Beneather, IAmRobik At this point Cavalinho is set to be lynched Please remember to unvote after voting. The cycle ends in 0m 0s. PM me if you have any questions or if you see a vote out of place. At this time, switching my vote to either of my potential scum 'reads' changes nothing. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
##vote N1k0 | ||
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N1k0
Uruguay1075 Posts
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 20 2014 08:18 N1k0 wrote: Sorry if you feel like i tried to put words in your mouth, i was confused of what your meant with your answer. Thanks for clearing that up. Probably worded too strongly on my part. Apologies! | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
My reads on IAmRobik were based on what i’ve discussed earlier, his jumping on me when.. please correct me if i’m wrong.. there wasn’t a massive amount of suspicion on me at the time. So you're main reason for having a scum read on IAmRobik is because he jumped on you? He said you were scummy because of this post: + Show Spoiler + This post is super scummy: On February 16 2014 12:21 Valenius wrote: Good evening  I'm heading to bed now, UK Time (03:00), see you all in a bit!He also said the same thing to me + Show Spoiler + Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one: On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow The difference between our reactions is night and day, I pretty much dismissed that accusation because there was no substance behind it. Yet, you use that post to fuel your case on Robik being scum, which isn't a good case at all, especially now that we know that Robik was town. You questioned him about that post and you continued to pursue the lynch on him. This is really scummy because up to the point where you cast your vote on Robik, you had no real case towards him being scummy other than him thinking your post was scummy. I think the main reason why you wanted Robik lynched was because he put a little pressure on you and you overreacted, which is something mafia is more likely to do. It also makes sense that he was shot during the night after your lynch attempt on him didn't gain traction. | ||
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 20 2014 08:37 theDragoon wrote: @Valenius: So you're main reason for having a scum read on IAmRobik is because he jumped on you? He said you were scummy because of this post: + Show Spoiler + This post is super scummy: On February 16 2014 12:21 Valenius wrote: Good evening I'm heading to bed now, UK Time (03:00), see you all in a bit!He also said the same thing to me + Show Spoiler + Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one: On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow The difference between our reactions is night and day, I pretty much dismissed that accusation because there was no substance behind it. Yet, you use that post to fuel your case on Robik being scum, which isn't a good case at all, especially now that we know that Robik was town. You questioned him about that post and you continued to pursue the lynch on him. This is really scummy because up to the point where you cast your vote on Robik, you had no real case towards him being scummy other than him thinking your post was scummy. I think the main reason why you wanted Robik lynched was because he put a little pressure on you and you overreacted, which is something mafia is more likely to do. It also makes sense that he was shot during the night after your lynch attempt on him didn't gain traction. Did you read the longer explanation at the top of my post? If you did and are still curious, ill respond in the morning. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Focus for Today I mentioned a few times that I thought it was best if we try to focus on a few people today to avoid vote manipulation. Currently the focus seems to be on Valenius, n1k0, and Beneather. I am pretty sure I have come out with a strong read on any of these three yet because they haven’t said as much, so I’m happy with this focus and will try to give more attention to them in this post. Loss Condition / Number of Mafia I want to point out one assumption regarding when we lose from mislynch – it is possible we survive some mislynches with successful power roles (town vigi / doctor / roleblocker). Obviously, we can’t bank on that possibility (there’s no certainty we have those roles or that they would make the right shot/save/block) and I don’t think it affects our play today, but I wanted to make the correction. Tolkien’s Post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20828567) Tolkien points out the lurkers I mentioned above with the inclusion of theDragoon. I think looking at the lurkers is worthwhile, but I would mention that a mafia Tolkien has a nice justification for doing so. I know we can’t read too into Robik’s death, but I would note when he listed his reads earlier, his top mafia were basically the people Tolkien mentioned, plus Tolkien. So, a mafia Tolkien could want to steer the conversation to the people around him, particularly given that there were a few scum reads on him yesterday. On February 18 2014 02:08 IAmRobik wrote: As of right now, this is where I'm at from most town to most scummy: Me Cavalinho OnceKing TheDragoon Amiko Beneather Valenius Tolkien N1k0 Moving on to his analysis, I think I would see Valenius and Beneather as more scummy, with n1k0 as a little less scummy. It’s hard to separate them that much, but I don’t really see theDragoon as lurking, and I feel Beneather is similarly situated to Valenius- I think you cover Valenius pretty well, I don’t have much to add to that. I dislike that Beneather had some frequent posts at the beginning of the game, and has since posted very rarely. I am a little mixed about the posts here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20817073) as I discussed earlier (he says he doesn’t see Tolkien as town but only provides an example where Tolkien acts scummy). I also dislike his light response to Tolkien’s push here: On February 18 2014 08:33 Lord Tolkien wrote: @ Beneather: Can you put forward your analysis now? I do hope you understand why I was willing to vote for Amiko after last night's series of posts, but you haven't contributed your reads and analysis yet. On February 18 2014 10:45 Beneather wrote: As the deadline comes closer, the scummiest person that I have read so far is Valenius, he doesn't contribute anything to town's efforts of deciding on a scum and just posts nothing of actual value. He brings up IamRobik and votes him but does not bring any reasons except that IamRobik has a problem with Valenius' posts, which is not a solid argument. I believe that Valenius might be scum because he is just posting things that look like it has contributions but in all honesty have no value. They are just restating the post and not providing any information and also has a lot of side tracking in it. As far as right now I believe that Valenius is mafia. A lot of his posts are just him defending himself but not bring any value to the discussion. That seems very scummy, just showing up for the occasional defending but then disappear before attracting too much attention and just sit back and watch town try to lynch each other. ##VOTE Valenius It’s not that I necessarily disagree with Beneather, it’s just, I wish he had posted more reads on other players, too. I thought it was weird that Beneather hadn’t even commented on Cavalinho. So, as to Tolkien’s discussion of these players, I think yes, Valenius looks scummy, but I do want to mention that caveat that I see Beneather somewhat similarly. Tolkien puts forward a more directed case on Valenius in the next post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20828667). I agree with a few things Tolkien raises about OnceKing. For one, I did think OnceKing might be a night target since a few people had pointed to him as a town read (myself included). I don’t know if they were trying to avoid a medic save or not, but for now I still feel okay about my read on OnceKing (more town than scum). I was a little surprised at the night kill on IAmRobik because I was moving to pressure him, but I don’t think I can read much into that. Aside – Beneather’s & Valenius Votes I spent a little while looking at Beneather and Valenius’ votes but I couldn’t get anything I felt was meaningful out of them. I do want to note, though, theDragoon raised Beneather and Valenius as a possible mafia team. On February 20 2014 02:37 theDragoon wrote: @OnceKing On my previous post I said I don't have a strong scum read on Beneather but if Valenius flips red I started thinking about his most likely partners and Beneather looks to be the most logical choice. If you read through Val's filter, a lot of it his him asking Robik why he thinks Val is scummy. Val also voted for Robik because he pretty much didn't like Robik's read on him. However, Val never mentions Beneather at all despite Beneather actually having a solid case, and an actual vote on him. I was a bit hesitant to make this connection because I thought if they were mafia teammates then Beneather wouldn't have such a solid case against his partner. So the question is, why did Val OMGUS Robik, who didn't have a solid case against him and ignored the only guy with a real case on him with Beneather? My guess is they planned this to keep themselves apart, to eliminate any possible connections between each other. Beneather knows that Val won't get lynched since he was mainly off town's radar and votes for him so that it's less likely that we make the connection between the two. Another thing to note is that neither of the two jumped on any of the possible bandwagons on day 1: Cavalinho, Lord Tolkien, and N1k0. Again, this supports the idea of them trying to distance themselves away from each other, and with the lack of a bandwagon it makes it easy for them to just watch town go at each other. The three way tie between Cavalinho, LT and N1k0 was also in their favor since any one of the three being lynched results in a mislynch for us. I don’t have any strong confidence that they are a team, but I do agree that Beneather’s vote on Valenius doesn’t do anything to convince me they aren’t same-aligned. Valenius’ comment on my Analysis re: Cavalinho & Robik Valenius argues here that I included a post from IAmRobik and misrepresent it as saying IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town: On February 20 2014 05:51 Valenius wrote: Amiko In your post listing off posts where IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town, you’ve included one where he agrees with your analysis of Cavalinho, early-ish in Day 1. Your reads from that post are that Cavalinho was scummy. Did you include this post in the hopes no one would read it, and to pad out your post ? What’s your reason for lying about the content of that post? I think Valenius misread the IAmRobik post he is referring to. There’s two parts of IAmRobik’s post, I think Valenius read the second without putting it in context. On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: I kinda like theDragoon's posts in the middle of page 7 and I am willing to remove him from my lynch list for today. While I don't agree w/ him on the conclusion regarding Amiko, I am 100% in agreement with the conclusion and case that he laid out with regards to Cavalinho being town On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: This is an excellent analysis post from Amiko and totally makes sense from his perspective. To answer his question regarding my lack of follow up, I don't know that OnceKing responded, but I really didn't care too much. I figured I should null read everyone and just assume that both mafia/town would have gotten some guidance from their coach if their post sounds too good: Valenius’ implication that I saw Cavalinho as scum, IAmRobik is saying he agrees with me, therefore he thought IAmRobik was scum. But, if you read the post in full (the bolded, 100% part, lol) I think it is obvious IAmRobik saw Cavalinho as town so my post wasn’t misrepresenting him. I have more to say on these posts and will put it up this PM. I accidentally deleted a post earlier so I am working back through my thoughts. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I have comments on valenius & n1k0, I see they have some recent posts so I'll try to put some things in on those before throwing in my vote | ||
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