The Rise of China and Fall of America - Page 12

On December 07 2010 12:31 Horse...falcon wrote:
I think OP is really overblowing the situation. I was born in China, grew up in the states, and worked for a few months in Beijing. However to generalize Americans as lazy and predict the fall of America is quite unnecessary. No need to throw us all under the bus.

China's economy is strongly intertwined with that of the United States as our demand for consumer products drives their economy. Also some of China's consistent growth is artificially created. There's a brand new town outside of some big city (I forgot which one) that's completely empty. Some officials there wanted to build it to show off their GDP growth numbers to their superiors but it's completely stupid. Not saying this is a major problem but I'd like to state that official Party estimates for GDP might be overstated. Current estimates for China's GDP growth expects a continued rate of 10% growth every year. Although they've maintained it in the past, I think it will slow down. China is not replacing the US as a superpower as it's much more likely we will end up with a world with two superpowers.

I am confident in America's continued success because we have so many fantastic institutions:

1. An incredible higher education system - we may have shitty high schools but our colleges are top notch.

2. A strong respect for Technology and R&D - American companies are more inclined to spend on R&D and we're also much more inclined to bet big and create risky start ups. From my experience that's definitely not the case in China. My cousin in Nanjing gets so much shit from his parents for not working for a big company like Microsoft even though he's in a great position with his smaller company.

3. A culture of independence and entrepreneurship - I've met so many fellow students who absolutely amaze me with their drive and work ethic. People like to characterize the American youth as lazy, free spending, and self-important but not enough attention is placed on those who are ambitious and work hard to succeed. The American dream is alive.

4. A stable and business friendly government - Despite what major media outlets seem to think, the US government has been remarkably stable in respect to other countries. The bureaucracy is a much maligned force in American politics but I really think it's been critical for us. Also America is still one of the most business friendly countries in the world (5th)

http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings

Problems

1. Media - It's pretty goddamn shitty. Not just Faux News but almost all of it is so goddamn bad for us. I actually wouldn't mind more state run media like NPR or BBC. The Global Times and CCTV in China is actually pretty informative and interesting without the obvious biases that Americans seem to expect. It's a lot more enjoyable to watch since there are fewer 'experts' overblowing every single news item of the day. (Anyone else remember CNBC dedicating a week of programming to the iPhone 4 connection issue?)

2. Trust in our leadership - a lot of this I think is caused by the media which scrutinizes the most asinine aspects of anyone who holds political office. I WANT my politician to disagree with his party from time to time. I WANT my politician to honestly express his position in his own words instead of relying on pleasing to the ear platitudes and talking points. We need leaders and not empty spokesmen/women who repeat trite phrases and bullshit us (Sarah Fucking Palin). I WANT my politician to be the smartest son of a bitch in the room. Elitism? I don't care if he's an elitist if he's genuinely trying his hardest to solve problems for his constituents.

3. Cost of Higher Education - Too damn high. Fuck school loans.



The EU also has a 66% larger population yet only a 2.2% larger GDP (2009 figures).
Sorry, had to get my jab in =D. Though I will agree that America's Military Spending is quite ridiculous.

While America's advantage over China and the rest of the World is almost certain to diminish (Unless a world war destroys every other country in the world again) we definitely shouldn't see the "downfall" of the United States anytime soon.

Anyways, if I'm completely wrong you guys better start learning Mandarin.
GL with TeamLiquid.cn

:edit: Wow I spent way too long writing; this thread really blew up

On December 06 2010 10:08 haduken wrote:
China is even more screwed than USA. You see all the new highrises going up in cities and talk of cashed up tourists buying louis vutton, what you don't see is the billions of peasants and under-privleged urban dwellers who have very little means to survive let alone own a home.

You don't see the gross pollution around Chinese cities and the growing deserts in China's north. You also don't see the hidden tensions in Chinese society and the vast youth unemployment.

You think China is it? think again, generations of leaders have pushed problems into the future. The country will implode before the fall of America.

On December 07 2010 16:43 SwiftSpear wrote:

Nah, they've got a couple hundred years before implosion point. Legions and legions of lives are sacrificed for damage control in China on a yearly basis. At some point the populous will get fed up enough to force change, but they are very complacent at this point in time, and I think it's a long while out still.

What will be really interesting to see is how the Chinese superpower would deal with the rising Muslim world if the Americans are no longer in a position to play police there.

If their track record within their own boarder is any indication... Mass murder is a very real possibility...

On December 07 2010 16:43 SwiftSpear wrote:

Nah, they've got a couple hundred years before implosion point. Legions and legions of lives are sacrificed for damage control in China on a yearly basis. At some point the populous will get fed up enough to force change, but they are very complacent at this point in time, and I think it's a long while out still.

What will be really interesting to see is how the Chinese superpower would deal with the rising Muslim world if the Americans are no longer in a position to play police there.

If their track record within their own boarder is any indication... Mass murder is a very real possibility...

“This is the first time that we have internationally comparable data on learning outcomes in China,” Mr. Schleicher said. “While that’s important, for me the real significance of these results is that they refute the commonly held hypothesis that China just produces rote learning.”

“Large fractions of these students demonstrate their ability to extrapolate from what they know and apply their knowledge very creatively in novel situations,” he said.

On December 07 2010 18:42 [Ryuzaki] wrote:
I consider that China's future GDP and per capita GDP is bright. It will continue to develop, however at what rate relative to other countries is uncertain.
China's particular style of development would be capitalism with communist characteristics, effective because of high public saving rates and capital reserves and availability. China may meet the US and EU in GDP in reasonable time, because of its effective investment and significant capital reserves. But through the international market, I can see the US and EU capitalizing on any excessive growth.
I consider that China has the potential to have a larger nominal GDP.

GDP Development:
China is proceeding quickly through development; industrialization in heavy manufacturing to the development of its tertiary sector (services) and it's quickly catching up with technology. Countries usually have most difficulty moving from manufacturing to services, however China seems to be doing it with ease.
I'd attribute a significant proportion of China catching up due to FDI. China can develop so quickly only because it uses practices from countries which have been building core-functionalism to get to their current facility. Another reason why China will be able to so quickly develop further and transition from a labor intensive industry to a capital intensive industry is because of the current international climate; information and development techniques are easily traded due to recent innovations in communication, transport and increasing FDI. A lot of the transition is not only infrastructure but practice; to become a country aiming for value added goods, significant changes are required to practices such as management techniques, education, R&D and innovation. When looking at the east Asian region, most countries such as Japan and South Korea took most of their time to move from manufacturing to services.
China's investment in infrastructure is also facilitating growth. China's financial system is also reasonably healthy.

Possible Problems:
I think it's also safe to ignore China's insecurity due to large domestic NPLs because of the government's vast reserves and I'm unconvinced that the USD will depreciate to the extent of becoming uncompetitive any time soon affecting these reserves.
China also has an issue with energy security, requiring significant imports of coal and oil. This is currently damaging China's trade deficit; China was requiring more and more energy, some estimate nearing double each few years.
In relation to the new nuclear reactors, I personally see it as a very viable source of energy (looking at France), although I do question the location; as China's primary cities are located on the coast close to the pacific ring of fire (natural disaster prone) and to place them too far inland would be inefficient. It would be dangerous for the reactors to be located in these zones because of nuclear reactors susceptibility to earthquakes and the like; although effective engineering could lessen this danger.
The aging population is a problem and the cost of labor will most likely increase, but if China can focus on capital intensive goods and services, it will avoid significant falls in GDP. The low dependency ratio is partially the reason which domestic saving rates in China are actually so high. India has very low saving rates (going up now) because there is still problems with fertility rates and property rights. (I consider that India will be on the same ground as China was a few years ago when it fixes such problems)
China's companies are also relatively uncompetitive, state owned SOE (companies) are more competitive because positions are given based on merit. The private sector will require more freedom in the future, if it wants to become more efficient and value competitive.
There are also possible cultural limitation in relation to technology R&D, I'd say that Confucianism generally promotes conservative ethics towards the new and I think the Chinese are currently inclined to avoid uncertainty.(quite reasonable)

The People of China:
After taking into account China's GDP growth I think its best to look at the people. Because of China's large population and elitist bureaucracy it will take a longer for them to reach a comparable per capita GDP and a less heterogeneous income equality. Unless I'm mistaken there is still problems with cronyism in China and although information is becoming more easily accessible (no thanks to the great firewall), I would say that the Chinese have a tendency to respect their superiors grandeur regardless of how great the income gap is and changes to culture and core philosophies can take a lot of time and effort.
Politically I think the Chinese government will become more representative and democratic alongside its development and associated freedoms of information and communication, when people see the positives from liberties.
If China is measured by the 'rise' in the average persons quality of life; China's standard of living will take more time and more consistent national effectiveness to become comparative to the US. I would think this is the best way to measure China's rise relative to China's citizens, but not for the rest of the world, or in this context; the US.

Affect on US Economy:
From the perspective of the US economy, a rise in China's GDP could result in many changes in its economic condition. However the same thing can be seen in any country, the US will be affected for the worse if its production becomes uncompetitive because China's shift in production. The US will need to make new innovations and rationalizations to production and its goods and services if it doesn't want to lose out.
The US could benefit on the rise of China, if it capitalizes on the right industries (for example China is fast becoming a huge market for cars). But at the very least, it may wake further potential in the US market. I'd consider any complacency in the US market a symptom of poor regulation and loose policy.

Geopolitical and Cultural Influence of the US:
From the geopolitical and cultural perspective of the US, like any time in history when a large economy comes into power, the larger country normally has more companions and more assets and therefore gets more say in what happens. Because I consider that China will need to undergo changes to its values ie human rights and such, in order to sustain a flourishing tertiary sector (one of the two engines of growth). I see no problem with less US values and more Chinese values in the international-political environment.
I don't consider there to be any dangers associated with China's growth, because in growing it increasingly needs to develop.

Remember that due to the 'rise of China' international consumers will benefit from a higher level of international competition primarily in product cost, but also in value through the rise of China. Although certain products may become specific to the Chinese market.

These are just my opinions based on a limited knowledge, please tell me what you think. ♪♪

On December 07 2010 16:55 Consolidate wrote:


Very vague and weird points.

It's hard to imagine China dealing with the Muslim world worse than America has. China has a much better relationship with the Middle East - Pakistan especially.

On December 07 2010 17:59 chevron wrote:
I think the main issue I take with OP is that his stance is so sensationalistic. We hear stuff like this all the time in the media, the whole idea that "China is catching up to the US and will take over the world one day." Just look at some of the recent laughable campaign ads regarding China (find em on youtube).

However, China has some major structural problems that lurk behind the facade of breakneck growth. The sum of these deep social and political weaknesses make China's surpassing the US far less certain than economic statistics suggests. Susan Shirk's "Fragile Superpower" is a great read on this topic. As a remedy, the Chinese Communist Party oriented all of its policies toward ensuring growth. Without keeping the economy churning along, most people feel that grievances from society at large would boil over and threaten the entire political order. This kind of arrangement is neither desirable nor sustainable.

Granted, the US is facing some serious problems as well. But at the same time, the US has (for the lack of a better term) an enormous resiliency that the Chinese state cannot match. To steal some points from a previous poster: In comparison to China, the US has the advantage of a robust civil society, the world's best universities and research institutes, and flexible political system that despite its flaws is not dependent on maintaining double digit GDP growth for its very survival.

I'm not saying that OP's point is flat out impossible. Who knows where things will stand in 20 years. But having a more measured outlook, I feel that China's surpassing the US is no certainty either.

On December 06 2010 10:11 sk` wrote:
Since 4 can be labeled as the cause of 1, 2, and 3 only 4 needs to be stated. In Japan, we actually have a 7.5 hour work day and our per-person GDP is higher than the states. I was born American, but I will curse the day when I have to live there again. I go back constantly for business trips and I am always appalled at how shitty the American worker has become - lazy, constantly complaining, insane unearned sense of entitlement. It is no longer if Atlas shrugs or not, the weight of the unproductive world (American world) has bloated to unbearable levels. Atlas changed countries.

On December 07 2010 16:43 SwiftSpear wrote:

Nah, they've got a couple hundred years before implosion point. Legions and legions of lives are sacrificed for damage control in China on a yearly basis. At some point the populous will get fed up enough to force change, but they are very complacent at this point in time, and I think it's a long while out still.

What will be really interesting to see is how the Chinese superpower would deal with the rising Muslim world if the Americans are no longer in a position to play police there.

If their track record within their own boarder is any indication... Mass murder is a very real possibility...

On December 07 2010 18:59 Consolidate wrote:


I appreciate your insights. I find myself hard-pressed to disagree with anything you wrote.

On December 07 2010 16:28 Consolidate wrote:
I think Mexico is a bad comparison to use. Are you going by per capita wealth?

I'm beginning to regret the 'sky is falling' tone of my original post. I don't believe that China's rise will necessarily come at the expense of America.

On December 08 2010 01:53 domovoi wrote:

China need only reach Mexican levels of prosperity to overtake America in overall GDP. Think about that. It indicates two things: 1) Despite all of China's progress, it is still very poor overall; 2) China is so huge it doesn't need to be particularly wealthy to be influential.

As a corollary, there is a good chance that within 100 years, India will have the highest GDP. Even if India is in way worse shape than China today.


It simply won't come at America's expense unless China's rise is an imperialistic one (laughable). Nothing about China's rise is zero-sum, except diplomatic influence.