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When it comes to economics, I think it's a little easier to play catchup than it is to lead because those countries receive outsourced jobs and their economic advancement is not held back by techonological advancement since they're not at the leading edge. China has its act together and has a plan so it's not surprising that they're doing well. Good for them!
Every country has its issues.
China has a ways to go on human rights but that comes naturally with economic prosperity and information is being shared ever more freely so I think that will naturally resolve itself in time. I think the same thing will bring a more representative government.
I think much the same thing of the US. We have a debt issue and an entitlement attitude issue. Both of those thing I think will be fixed in the school of hard knox. Just in the past couple years I've seen family and friends pay get out of debt and I've seen the attitudes of employees you meet at businesses on a daily basis improve noticeably. I myself was a lazy bum with a bad attitude when I was in college but a few years and some hard lessons have yielded a considerable improvement. I recognize, however, that those things are anecdotal and not necessarily indicative of the greater situation. Some examples that are: we've just recently seen the electorate make a fairly strong stance against debt, economic growth without job growth (higher productivity).
So nah, I don't think the sky is falling. 
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The U.S. is in an economic depression because of the huge boom in the financial sector which employed thousands of people to "guess" which next big company would hit it big. So much money was invested in educating people in business, finance and legal education that we now have a gigantic surplus of highly educated people in these fields but a huge deficit of people in science and engineering fields which develop the technology necessary to provide financial growth. Engineering is starting to become more profitable (especially in the computer sector) while development in the sciences is starting to grow thanks to private investment. Following the huge amount of layoffs in the financial sector (as well as the consistent downsizing of governmental employment) recently, we should begin to see steady economic growth in the U.S. again.
China is economically booming because they are going through a rapid industrialization process which creates many opportunities for employment. No doubt they will go through some period of over investment in some sectors just like any industrialized country. The rise of China's economy and the growth of the US economy are not mutually exclusive although it seems like people want to blow smoke at each other about which country is "better." As someone who is part of the UCSD graduate program (where there are a large number of Chinese, Taiwanese and Korean students) I can say that global integration is not a bad thing at all.
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Avoiding talking about the U.S., it is hard to treat China as a traditional nation (i.e. linear path from birth, to rise, to peak, to fall and stagnation) mainly due to the fact that China has had, for the past five thousand years, a cycle; it will peak with a strong dynasty for a few hundred years, then the rulers will grow incompetent, then warfare and civil anarchy for a few hundred years. Eventually everyone gets tired of the constant fighting, gets behind the strongest warlord, and the cycle begins again.
I see the current situation as no different - China will most likely hit a peak relatively soon. But the fall of America? It is really hard to say at this date if America is "doomed," but I think the fact that when you ask a vast majority of people in improvised or second-world nations where they want to be, they say America.
Besides, I still believe that more Chinese want to come to the U.S. than Americans want to go live in China. (No proof for this, sorry if this is not true.)
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On December 07 2010 09:51 haduken wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 03:17 chevron wrote:On December 06 2010 10:05 Consolidate wrote:On December 06 2010 09:51 infinitestory wrote:
China has its own share of hurdles that it needs to go over first, including overpopulation, human rights issues, etc. which is delaying and will delay their rise for some time to come. But America needs to get its act together, and instead of acting like the status quo will be alright forever, we need to actually get something done.
Knowing Chinese is going to be very useful in the next couple decades ;D Overpopulation really isn't the problem. The solution to the problem is the issue China will need to deal with in the near future. The one child policy will lead to a rapidly aging workforce. Still, the policy if more favorable compared to India's electing to disregard overpopulation as a problem. Human rights issues in China are both overblown by the West and underestimated by the Chinese public. With the supreme goal of maintaining economic stability, China has little tolerance for unrest and often deals with it brutally. However, actual life in China doesn't feel like living under a police state. While corruption in is China is prevalent at the local level, the upper echelons of the government are fairly unaffected. The official policy and attitudes against corruption betrays no tolerance for such behavior. Corrupt politicians usually face Draconian measures. This last point is wrong. Corruption is not only local but systemic and reaches up into the peaks of Party Central. I'm not sure what you meant by "9 politburos" but I'm guessing you were referring to the Politburo Standing Committee. There is a great deal of controversy over the business affairs of current and former PSC members' family (see for instance Wen Jiabao's wife, also, Jiang Zhemin's family). There is no way corruption at that level gets reported, and your claim that "the upper echelons of government are fairly unaffected" is false. For more on this, see Richard McGregor's "The Party." Also, another point I'd have to disagree on is the "draconian measures" put in place to fight corruption. Every year, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao rally against corruption, promising change and sometimes even political reform--see Wen's controversial speech from earlier this year. However in actual practice there has been little movement against corruption. The few executions/prison terms you see of party bosses caught for embezzlement are show trials and the result of political infighting, not a real measurement of progress. The best example of this is the sacking of Chen Liangyu, Shanghai's party boss (a politburo level position) in 2006. Most commentators believe his removal was the result of Hu/Wen's maneuvering against the "Shanghai Gang", a powerful bloc in the Party led by Hu's predecessor and political rival Jiang. Moreover, the Party's Discipline and Inspection Committee is a means of factional competition between elites (again, see the sacking of the Shanghai party secretary), not a body that is empowered with really cracking down on corruption in any meaningful way. I think you are significantly underplaying the detriment corruption is having on the Party and its legitimacy in the eyes of the Chinese public. That said, I think the upcoming Congress in 2012 might offer some promise for change. Let's not confuse corruption with incompetence. The fact that we don't hear about top party leaders's cash stash is not due to their virtue but rather political necessity. It doesn't mean that they don't trade in other means, power, position, opportunities, the list goes on. And to be frank, I don't blame them, it's the way China works, find me someone who works for the government and is absolutely clean, I will say he is either a retard or lying. He is probably incompetent as well. How do you get shit done in China and not get your hand dirty? You are writting this as if the evil comes from the party when it fact it is a model which the Chinese have chosen for their society. It has being like that for thousands of years, why blame the party for it now? This won't change until true balance of power is implemented which won't be until the party goes away.
google bo xilai.
You're welcome.
User was warned for this post
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On December 06 2010 10:08 haduken wrote:
China is even more screwed than USA. You see all the new highrises going up in cities and talk of cashed up tourists buying louis vutton, what you don't see is the billions of peasants and under-privleged urban dwellers who have very little means to survive let alone own a home.
You don't see the gross pollution around Chinese cities and the growing deserts in China's north. You also don't see the hidden tensions in Chinese society and the vast youth unemployment.
You think China is it? think again, generations of leaders have pushed problems into the future. The country will implode before the fall of America.
this.
and with the current education system and communism control, technology of china will never catch up with the western world. speaking as a biomedical field related researcher.
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On December 07 2010 10:38 clementdudu wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 09:51 haduken wrote:On December 07 2010 03:17 chevron wrote:On December 06 2010 10:05 Consolidate wrote:On December 06 2010 09:51 infinitestory wrote:
China has its own share of hurdles that it needs to go over first, including overpopulation, human rights issues, etc. which is delaying and will delay their rise for some time to come. But America needs to get its act together, and instead of acting like the status quo will be alright forever, we need to actually get something done.
Knowing Chinese is going to be very useful in the next couple decades ;D Overpopulation really isn't the problem. The solution to the problem is the issue China will need to deal with in the near future. The one child policy will lead to a rapidly aging workforce. Still, the policy if more favorable compared to India's electing to disregard overpopulation as a problem. Human rights issues in China are both overblown by the West and underestimated by the Chinese public. With the supreme goal of maintaining economic stability, China has little tolerance for unrest and often deals with it brutally. However, actual life in China doesn't feel like living under a police state. While corruption in is China is prevalent at the local level, the upper echelons of the government are fairly unaffected. The official policy and attitudes against corruption betrays no tolerance for such behavior. Corrupt politicians usually face Draconian measures. This last point is wrong. Corruption is not only local but systemic and reaches up into the peaks of Party Central. I'm not sure what you meant by "9 politburos" but I'm guessing you were referring to the Politburo Standing Committee. There is a great deal of controversy over the business affairs of current and former PSC members' family (see for instance Wen Jiabao's wife, also, Jiang Zhemin's family). There is no way corruption at that level gets reported, and your claim that "the upper echelons of government are fairly unaffected" is false. For more on this, see Richard McGregor's "The Party." Also, another point I'd have to disagree on is the "draconian measures" put in place to fight corruption. Every year, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao rally against corruption, promising change and sometimes even political reform--see Wen's controversial speech from earlier this year. However in actual practice there has been little movement against corruption. The few executions/prison terms you see of party bosses caught for embezzlement are show trials and the result of political infighting, not a real measurement of progress. The best example of this is the sacking of Chen Liangyu, Shanghai's party boss (a politburo level position) in 2006. Most commentators believe his removal was the result of Hu/Wen's maneuvering against the "Shanghai Gang", a powerful bloc in the Party led by Hu's predecessor and political rival Jiang. Moreover, the Party's Discipline and Inspection Committee is a means of factional competition between elites (again, see the sacking of the Shanghai party secretary), not a body that is empowered with really cracking down on corruption in any meaningful way. I think you are significantly underplaying the detriment corruption is having on the Party and its legitimacy in the eyes of the Chinese public. That said, I think the upcoming Congress in 2012 might offer some promise for change. Let's not confuse corruption with incompetence. The fact that we don't hear about top party leaders's cash stash is not due to their virtue but rather political necessity. It doesn't mean that they don't trade in other means, power, position, opportunities, the list goes on. And to be frank, I don't blame them, it's the way China works, find me someone who works for the government and is absolutely clean, I will say he is either a retard or lying. He is probably incompetent as well. How do you get shit done in China and not get your hand dirty? You are writting this as if the evil comes from the party when it fact it is a model which the Chinese have chosen for their society. It has being like that for thousands of years, why blame the party for it now? This won't change until true balance of power is implemented which won't be until the party goes away. google bo xilai. You're welcome.
Am I suppose to find anything interesting? He was a party leader who likes to recite Maoist ideals which means jack all.
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On December 07 2010 10:49 haduken wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 10:38 clementdudu wrote:On December 07 2010 09:51 haduken wrote:On December 07 2010 03:17 chevron wrote:On December 06 2010 10:05 Consolidate wrote:On December 06 2010 09:51 infinitestory wrote:
China has its own share of hurdles that it needs to go over first, including overpopulation, human rights issues, etc. which is delaying and will delay their rise for some time to come. But America needs to get its act together, and instead of acting like the status quo will be alright forever, we need to actually get something done.
Knowing Chinese is going to be very useful in the next couple decades ;D Overpopulation really isn't the problem. The solution to the problem is the issue China will need to deal with in the near future. The one child policy will lead to a rapidly aging workforce. Still, the policy if more favorable compared to India's electing to disregard overpopulation as a problem. Human rights issues in China are both overblown by the West and underestimated by the Chinese public. With the supreme goal of maintaining economic stability, China has little tolerance for unrest and often deals with it brutally. However, actual life in China doesn't feel like living under a police state. While corruption in is China is prevalent at the local level, the upper echelons of the government are fairly unaffected. The official policy and attitudes against corruption betrays no tolerance for such behavior. Corrupt politicians usually face Draconian measures. This last point is wrong. Corruption is not only local but systemic and reaches up into the peaks of Party Central. I'm not sure what you meant by "9 politburos" but I'm guessing you were referring to the Politburo Standing Committee. There is a great deal of controversy over the business affairs of current and former PSC members' family (see for instance Wen Jiabao's wife, also, Jiang Zhemin's family). There is no way corruption at that level gets reported, and your claim that "the upper echelons of government are fairly unaffected" is false. For more on this, see Richard McGregor's "The Party." Also, another point I'd have to disagree on is the "draconian measures" put in place to fight corruption. Every year, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao rally against corruption, promising change and sometimes even political reform--see Wen's controversial speech from earlier this year. However in actual practice there has been little movement against corruption. The few executions/prison terms you see of party bosses caught for embezzlement are show trials and the result of political infighting, not a real measurement of progress. The best example of this is the sacking of Chen Liangyu, Shanghai's party boss (a politburo level position) in 2006. Most commentators believe his removal was the result of Hu/Wen's maneuvering against the "Shanghai Gang", a powerful bloc in the Party led by Hu's predecessor and political rival Jiang. Moreover, the Party's Discipline and Inspection Committee is a means of factional competition between elites (again, see the sacking of the Shanghai party secretary), not a body that is empowered with really cracking down on corruption in any meaningful way. I think you are significantly underplaying the detriment corruption is having on the Party and its legitimacy in the eyes of the Chinese public. That said, I think the upcoming Congress in 2012 might offer some promise for change. Let's not confuse corruption with incompetence. The fact that we don't hear about top party leaders's cash stash is not due to their virtue but rather political necessity. It doesn't mean that they don't trade in other means, power, position, opportunities, the list goes on. And to be frank, I don't blame them, it's the way China works, find me someone who works for the government and is absolutely clean, I will say he is either a retard or lying. He is probably incompetent as well. How do you get shit done in China and not get your hand dirty? You are writting this as if the evil comes from the party when it fact it is a model which the Chinese have chosen for their society. It has being like that for thousands of years, why blame the party for it now? This won't change until true balance of power is implemented which won't be until the party goes away. google bo xilai. You're welcome. Am I suppose to find anything interesting? He was a party leader who likes to recite Maoist ideals which means jack all.
google harder then
User was temp banned for this post.
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How about you just sum up what you want me to find, I'm browsing this at work don't have alot of time to google.
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well the guy pretty much cleared an entire region of gangsters/mafias,and corrupt officials helping them,while receiving death threats everyday.
He targeted government officials so high up that he had to get the ok from hu jintao.
He's pretty much the harvey dent of China,without the oil burning.
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On December 07 2010 10:44 BurningSera wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2010 10:08 haduken wrote:
China is even more screwed than USA. You see all the new highrises going up in cities and talk of cashed up tourists buying louis vutton, what you don't see is the billions of peasants and under-privleged urban dwellers who have very little means to survive let alone own a home.
You don't see the gross pollution around Chinese cities and the growing deserts in China's north. You also don't see the hidden tensions in Chinese society and the vast youth unemployment.
You think China is it? think again, generations of leaders have pushed problems into the future. The country will implode before the fall of America. this. and with the current education system and communism control, technology of china will never catch up with the western world. speaking as a biomedical field related researcher.
Wouldn't say never, but...if the country fails, it'll be more because of the pompous current generation, members of the 1-child policy and not because of anything the Communist Party does.
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On December 07 2010 10:24 SevenBunnies wrote:
Avoiding talking about the U.S., it is hard to treat China as a traditional nation (i.e. linear path from birth, to rise, to peak, to fall and stagnation) mainly due to the fact that China has had, for the past five thousand years, a cycle; it will peak with a strong dynasty for a few hundred years, then the rulers will grow incompetent, then warfare and civil anarchy for a few hundred years. Eventually everyone gets tired of the constant fighting, gets behind the strongest warlord, and the cycle begins again.
I see the current situation as no different - China will most likely hit a peak relatively soon. But the fall of America? It is really hard to say at this date if America is "doomed," but I think the fact that when you ask a vast majority of people in improvised or second-world nations where they want to be, they say America.
Besides, I still believe that more Chinese want to come to the U.S. than Americans want to go live in China. (No proof for this, sorry if this is not true.)
This cycle held true for other monarchy's around the world, not just China. However, we have not had such an interdependent global society as we see today anywhere else in history. The Chinese dynasties were more or less self contained, yet absolute power in this territory. The China we know today, while absolute in power (close to it at least, as I consider control of information more significant than any other form of control) are not self contained. Far from it, and I am sure no one would disagree with that. This is uncharted waters and it is too hasty to liken it to a dynastic cycle.
Of course you could say that since all nations will end one way or another, the cycle will hold true. However, I don't think it will take quite the same steps as the dynasties did.
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On December 07 2010 11:24 clementdudu wrote:
well the guy pretty much cleared an entire region of gangsters/mafias,and corrupt officials helping them,while receiving death threats everyday.
He targeted government officials so high up that he had to get the ok from hu jintao.
He's pretty much the harvey dent of China,without the oil burning.
I heard of this guy, didn't catch his name though and he went against a group who over stepped the line and needs to squashed. Nothing new there.
The problem is systematic due to the balance of power solely rested with one group, corruption is just a way of life.
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I think OP is really overblowing the situation. I was born in China, grew up in the states, and worked for a few months in Beijing. However to generalize Americans as lazy and predict the fall of America is quite unnecessary. No need to throw us all under the bus.
China's economy is strongly intertwined with that of the United States as our demand for consumer products drives their economy. Also some of China's consistent growth is artificially created. There's a brand new town outside of some big city (I forgot which one) that's completely empty. Some officials there wanted to build it to show off their GDP growth numbers to their superiors but it's completely stupid. Not saying this is a major problem but I'd like to state that official Party estimates for GDP might be overstated. Current estimates for China's GDP growth expects a continued rate of 10% growth every year. Although they've maintained it in the past, I think it will slow down. China is not replacing the US as a superpower as it's much more likely we will end up with a world with two superpowers.
I am confident in America's continued success because we have so many fantastic institutions:
1. An incredible higher education system - we may have shitty high schools but our colleges are top notch.
2. A strong respect for Technology and R&D - American companies are more inclined to spend on R&D and we're also much more inclined to bet big and create risky start ups. From my experience that's definitely not the case in China. My cousin in Nanjing gets so much shit from his parents for not working for a big company like Microsoft even though he's in a great position with his smaller company.
3. A culture of independence and entrepreneurship - I've met so many fellow students who absolutely amaze me with their drive and work ethic. People like to characterize the American youth as lazy, free spending, and self-important but not enough attention is placed on those who are ambitious and work hard to succeed. The American dream is alive.
4. A stable and business friendly government - Despite what major media outlets seem to think, the US government has been remarkably stable in respect to other countries. The bureaucracy is a much maligned force in American politics but I really think it's been critical for us. Also America is still one of the most business friendly countries in the world (5th)
http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings
Problems
1. Media - It's pretty goddamn shitty. Not just Faux News but almost all of it is so goddamn bad for us. I actually wouldn't mind more state run media like NPR or BBC. The Global Times and CCTV in China is actually pretty informative and interesting without the obvious biases that Americans seem to expect. It's a lot more enjoyable to watch since there are fewer 'experts' overblowing every single news item of the day. (Anyone else remember CNBC dedicating a week of programming to the iPhone 4 connection issue?)
2. Trust in our leadership - a lot of this I think is caused by the media which scrutinizes the most asinine aspects of anyone who holds political office. I WANT my politician to disagree with his party from time to time. I WANT my politician to honestly express his position in his own words instead of relying on pleasing to the ear platitudes and talking points. We need leaders and not empty spokesmen/women who repeat trite phrases and bullshit us (Sarah Fucking Palin). I WANT my politician to be the smartest son of a bitch in the room. Elitism? I don't care if he's an elitist if he's genuinely trying his hardest to solve problems for his constituents.
3. Cost of Higher Education - Too damn high. Fuck school loans.
The EU, with all its problems, has already surpassed the US economy years ago. Given the huge military spending, the US are doing just fine, of course they could reduce that by 90% and give their citizens a better life, but that's another topic.
The EU also has a 66% larger population yet only a 2.2% larger GDP (2009 figures).
Sorry, had to get my jab in =D. Though I will agree that America's Military Spending is quite ridiculous.
While America's advantage over China and the rest of the World is almost certain to diminish (Unless a world war destroys every other country in the world again) we definitely shouldn't see the "downfall" of the United States anytime soon.
Anyways, if I'm completely wrong you guys better start learning Mandarin.
GL with TeamLiquid.cn
:edit: Wow I spent way too long writing; this thread really blew up
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I try really hard not to be sensationalist about these sort of topics, but I've got to say I'm skeptical of the view point that American can NOT fail. I've read it a lot in the last couple pages. They buy too much, their army is too powerful, they innovate constantly. I'd like to insert into the conversation that America has been this way for just under 70 years. It was a shit-hole before that: (civil)war, depression and absurd imbalances in class wealth. That's barely one generation of prosperity. Sure we all grew up knowing nothing but this prosperity, but I think to say that we've reached a point where it can't end is extremely ignorant.
I say "we" because Canada/America have been joined at the hip since the end of WW2 anyway.
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On December 07 2010 12:31 Horse...falcon wrote:I think OP is really overblowing the situation. I was born in China, grew up in the states, and worked for a few months in Beijing. However to generalize Americans as lazy and predict the fall of America is quite unnecessary. No need to throw us all under the bus. China's economy is strongly intertwined with that of the United States as our demand for consumer products drives their economy. Also some of China's consistent growth is artificially created. There's a brand new town outside of some big city (I forgot which one) that's completely empty. Some officials there wanted to build it to show off their GDP growth numbers to their superiors but it's completely stupid. Not saying this is a major problem but I'd like to state that official Party estimates for GDP might be overstated. Current estimates for China's GDP growth expects a continued rate of 10% growth every year. Although they've maintained it in the past, I think it will slow down. China is not replacing the US as a superpower as it's much more likely we will end up with a world with two superpowers. I am confident in America's continued success because we have so many fantastic institutions: 1. An incredible higher education system - we may have shitty high schools but our colleges are top notch. 2. A strong respect for Technology and R&D - American companies are more inclined to spend on R&D and we're also much more inclined to bet big and create risky start ups. From my experience that's definitely not the case in China. My cousin in Nanjing gets so much shit from his parents for not working for a big company like Microsoft even though he's in a great position with his smaller company. 3. A culture of independence and entrepreneurship - I've met so many fellow students who absolutely amaze me with their drive and work ethic. People like to characterize the American youth as lazy, free spending, and self-important but not enough attention is placed on those who are ambitious and work hard to succeed. The American dream is alive. 4. A stable and business friendly government - Despite what major media outlets seem to think, the US government has been remarkably stable in respect to other countries. The bureaucracy is a much maligned force in American politics but I really think it's been critical for us. Also America is still one of the most business friendly countries in the world (5th) http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankingsProblems 1. Media - It's pretty goddamn shitty. Not just Faux News but almost all of it is so goddamn bad for us. I actually wouldn't mind more state run media like NPR or BBC. The Global Times and CCTV in China is actually pretty informative and interesting without the obvious biases that Americans seem to expect. It's a lot more enjoyable to watch since there are fewer 'experts' overblowing every single news item of the day. (Anyone else remember CNBC dedicating a week of programming to the iPhone 4 connection issue?) 2. Trust in our leadership - a lot of this I think is caused by the media which scrutinizes the most asinine aspects of anyone who holds political office. I WANT my politician to disagree with his party from time to time. I WANT my politician to honestly express his position in his own words instead of relying on pleasing to the ear platitudes and talking points. We need leaders and not empty spokesmen/women who repeat trite phrases and bullshit us (Sarah Fucking Palin). I WANT my politician to be the smartest son of a bitch in the room. Elitism? I don't care if he's an elitist if he's genuinely trying his hardest to solve problems for his constituents. 3. Cost of Higher Education - Too damn high. Fuck school loans. Show nested quote +The EU, with all its problems, has already surpassed the US economy years ago. Given the huge military spending, the US are doing just fine, of course they could reduce that by 90% and give their citizens a better life, but that's another topic. The EU also has a 66% larger population yet only a 2.2% larger GDP (2009 figures). Sorry, had to get my jab in =D. Though I will agree that America's Military Spending is quite ridiculous. While America's advantage over China and the rest of the World is almost certain to diminish (Unless a world war destroys every other country in the world again) we definitely shouldn't see the "downfall" of the United States anytime soon. Anyways, if I'm completely wrong you guys better start learning Mandarin. GL with TeamLiquid.cn :edit: Wow I spent way too long writing; this thread really blew up
I HATE the tuition here. I might be going to a college next year that's 30,000 USD a year..........30k loan is going to haunt me forever, especially considering it's art >_> job might be rough to find after.
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On December 07 2010 13:14 Deadlyhazard wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 12:31 Horse...falcon wrote:I think OP is really overblowing the situation. I was born in China, grew up in the states, and worked for a few months in Beijing. However to generalize Americans as lazy and predict the fall of America is quite unnecessary. No need to throw us all under the bus. China's economy is strongly intertwined with that of the United States as our demand for consumer products drives their economy. Also some of China's consistent growth is artificially created. There's a brand new town outside of some big city (I forgot which one) that's completely empty. Some officials there wanted to build it to show off their GDP growth numbers to their superiors but it's completely stupid. Not saying this is a major problem but I'd like to state that official Party estimates for GDP might be overstated. Current estimates for China's GDP growth expects a continued rate of 10% growth every year. Although they've maintained it in the past, I think it will slow down. China is not replacing the US as a superpower as it's much more likely we will end up with a world with two superpowers. I am confident in America's continued success because we have so many fantastic institutions: 1. An incredible higher education system - we may have shitty high schools but our colleges are top notch. 2. A strong respect for Technology and R&D - American companies are more inclined to spend on R&D and we're also much more inclined to bet big and create risky start ups. From my experience that's definitely not the case in China. My cousin in Nanjing gets so much shit from his parents for not working for a big company like Microsoft even though he's in a great position with his smaller company. 3. A culture of independence and entrepreneurship - I've met so many fellow students who absolutely amaze me with their drive and work ethic. People like to characterize the American youth as lazy, free spending, and self-important but not enough attention is placed on those who are ambitious and work hard to succeed. The American dream is alive. 4. A stable and business friendly government - Despite what major media outlets seem to think, the US government has been remarkably stable in respect to other countries. The bureaucracy is a much maligned force in American politics but I really think it's been critical for us. Also America is still one of the most business friendly countries in the world (5th) http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankingsProblems 1. Media - It's pretty goddamn shitty. Not just Faux News but almost all of it is so goddamn bad for us. I actually wouldn't mind more state run media like NPR or BBC. The Global Times and CCTV in China is actually pretty informative and interesting without the obvious biases that Americans seem to expect. It's a lot more enjoyable to watch since there are fewer 'experts' overblowing every single news item of the day. (Anyone else remember CNBC dedicating a week of programming to the iPhone 4 connection issue?) 2. Trust in our leadership - a lot of this I think is caused by the media which scrutinizes the most asinine aspects of anyone who holds political office. I WANT my politician to disagree with his party from time to time. I WANT my politician to honestly express his position in his own words instead of relying on pleasing to the ear platitudes and talking points. We need leaders and not empty spokesmen/women who repeat trite phrases and bullshit us (Sarah Fucking Palin). I WANT my politician to be the smartest son of a bitch in the room. Elitism? I don't care if he's an elitist if he's genuinely trying his hardest to solve problems for his constituents. 3. Cost of Higher Education - Too damn high. Fuck school loans. The EU, with all its problems, has already surpassed the US economy years ago. Given the huge military spending, the US are doing just fine, of course they could reduce that by 90% and give their citizens a better life, but that's another topic. The EU also has a 66% larger population yet only a 2.2% larger GDP (2009 figures). Sorry, had to get my jab in =D. Though I will agree that America's Military Spending is quite ridiculous. While America's advantage over China and the rest of the World is almost certain to diminish (Unless a world war destroys every other country in the world again) we definitely shouldn't see the "downfall" of the United States anytime soon. Anyways, if I'm completely wrong you guys better start learning Mandarin. GL with TeamLiquid.cn :edit: Wow I spent way too long writing; this thread really blew up I HATE the tuition here. I might be going to a college next year that's 30,000 USD a year..........30k loan is going to haunt me forever, especially considering it's art >_> job might be rough to find after.
I'm rockin' $45,500 a year. Yea, not fun.
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On December 07 2010 12:31 Horse...falcon wrote:
3. Cost of Higher Education - Too damn high.
+ Show Spoiler +
Couldn't resist, sorry.
Gotta agree with much of your points there, the US has put a lot of focus on entrepreneurship and innovation (more so than any other nation) and that has resulted in much more start-ups, small business, and just a generally creative and ambitious peoples (although that's not always a good thing). China is trying to catch up to this standard and sinking a lot of money into higher education and whatnot, but it'll take a while for the general Chinese culture of conformity to come around.
I think the US definitely has an edge in this respect, although some other countries aren't far behind. I think China seems like it has an edge in some respects due to the sheer size of its workforce and production power, but that's not truly a unique advantage of China. I can see production for consumer products being shifted from China to any third-world country, I can't see the innovation and research power of American industry being replicated anywhere else.
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It's not because of Chinese culture that the upper education offerings are limited. It's because of the Cultural Revolution literally setting everything back at least 10 years if not more. It's because that higher education foundations is something that is not simply solved by pouring money into it.
If you think Chinese production can simply be shifted to any 3rd world country, then you are mistaken, 3rd world countries can be unstable and thus be unreliable to count on production, China does not have that particular problem and more importantly a workforce willing to work at those levels. It's not a simple pack up and leave as you are making it out to be.
The innovation and research power of the US is fool's gold, because of the sheer amount of international involvement in the research process for the US. How much of that is built on international students and individuals who stand a good chance to head home? That's been the case for decades now and have recently gotten "worse" per say for the US.
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I never said that all of Chinese production can "simply" be shifted to "any" 3rd world country. I simply stated production. It can be only a few companies, it can be a gradual process, it can be replaced by automation, it can whatever. I wasn't "making it out to be" anything, I was making the point that manufacturing stuff is not something that can only be done in China. I think you're the one who's mistaken here.
I don't even know what point you're trying to make about the research power of the US. I never stated it was an America-only process, I stated that the same conditions are unlikely to be reproduced in any other country's industry, not any time soon.
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On December 07 2010 03:27 domovoi wrote:
OP is ignorant. The rise of China (which was inevitable) to Mexican levels of prosperity does not mean America is fucked or will fall, except in GDP rankings. The rise of China is unquestionably a good thing for the average American.
OP's perception of America's industrial base is also ignorant. America has the largest manufacturing output in the world, it's just that as a share of GDP, it has steadily declined over the past 50 years. What has taken its place? Industries with high human capital, e.g. the tech industry. This is a good thing, because it gives laborers more leverage (the capital is in labor's hands, not the owners), is a more productive use of capital and is immune from automation for the foreseeable future. I don't understand why some people pine for the days when everyone worked on the floor; those jobs require little skill and should be shipped out to poorer nations and eventually automated.
OP's perception of the laziness of America's workforce is likewise ignorant. Amongst developed countries, Americans generally rank at the top in terms of hours worked. In fact, it is well known that the income gaps between Americans and Europeans is largely due to the fact that Europeans work much less rather than any gap in productivity between the two.
I think Mexico is a bad comparison to use. Are you going by per capita wealth?
I'm beginning to regret the 'sky is falling' tone of my original post. I don't believe that China's rise will necessarily come at the expense of America.
When speaking about industry, I don't mean just the manufacturing sector. Hi-tech industries are becoming more and more heavily subsidized in China which leads me to believe that corporations would be more eager to do business there.
Hours worked isn't a very good metric to be honest. Still, I don't mean to say that Americans are lazy; I just get the feeling that the most lucrative jobs in the United States aren't the most productive which is not as much the case in countries like China.
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EPT
