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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/china-mulls-15-trillion-industry-boost/article1821827/
Excerpts:
"China is considering investments of up to $1.5-trillion (U.S.) over five years in seven strategic industries, sources said, a plan aimed at accelerating the country’s transition from the world’s supplier of cheap goods to a leading purveyor of high-value technologies."
"“It’s one of these figures that is so big that even if it is exaggerated the actual figure is probably still big,” said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist with Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong. "
My Thoughts:
China is a nation currently in the process of industrialization - the same process the US/UK has undergone about a century ago. For the past 15-20 years, China has been playing catch up; trying to enlarge it's middle class by expanding it's industrial sector.
The Middle Nation's top 9 politburos are engineers and have chosen to pursue an appropriate approach to growing it's economy; investments into infrastructure, manufacturing, and tech sectors as well as a comprehensive grant program for academic institutions have rendered it's economy relatively unfazed by the turmoil of the American service sector.
For better or worse, America is fucked/ (edit. probably too harsh) finds itself in an unfavorable situation. According to the current trajectory of the United States, I am not alone in predicting that China will overtake America as the premier economic superpower within 20-30 years.
The question is why America can't or refuses to compete. Four reasons:
1. Disproportionate spending related to Iraq/Afghanistan War
2. Subservience to it's grossly corrupt and inefficient service sector.
3. A perpetually distracted and permanently short-sighted Congress
4. A lazy and complacent public.
Number 4 is the most important factor. I am currently an undergraduate at an Ivy-league university. The prevailing sentiment is highly discouraging. Very few students want to do real work anymore; despite the recent deflation of Wall Street, many of my peers (especially those quantitatively inclined) are aiming for positions within investment banks and consulting firms. I myself, am no exception - I look forward to a starting six-figure salary for what can kindly described as clerical work. Who am I to say no to that offer?
Over-reliance on western values will be the downfall of the United States. The life of an American is one which is lacking the impetus for real progress. Liberty is the freedom to do nothing. The pursuit of happiness is the quest for nominal wealth.
China has something to prove. America has been resting on it's laurels for far too long. When the day comes that the US dollar is no longer the global reserve currency, Americans will find themselves forced to embrace a new value:
Progress for the sake of progress. (Nietzsche anyone?)
Agree/Disagree?
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If this fall of America was accompanied by a shorter workday, fuck it, I'll take that any day! Let some poor Chinese fellow work 10 hours a day to buy a new plasma TV. Market forces don't allow it, but it would be damned nice.
I'd love to see the military budget eliminated and instead investments in infrastructure made, but it ain't gonna happen.
Hell, I'd love to see the government disappear, but that ain't going to happen either. At this point I'll welcome pennies, though.
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United States4053 Posts
China has its own share of hurdles that it needs to go over first, including overpopulation, human rights issues, etc. which is delaying and will delay their rise for some time to come. But America needs to get its act together, and instead of acting like the status quo will be alright forever, we need to actually get something done.
Knowing Chinese is going to be very useful in the next couple decades ;D
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On December 06 2010 09:51 infinitestory wrote:
China has its own share of hurdles that it needs to go over first, including overpopulation, human rights issues, etc. which is delaying and will delay their rise for some time to come. But America needs to get its act together, and instead of acting like the status quo will be alright forever, we need to actually get something done.
Knowing Chinese is going to be very useful in the next couple decades ;D
Overpopulation really isn't the problem. The solution to the problem is the issue China will need to deal with in the near future. The one child policy will lead to a rapidly aging workforce. Still, the policy if more favorable compared to India's electing to disregard overpopulation as a problem.
Human rights issues in China are both overblown by the West and underestimated by the Chinese public. With the supreme goal of maintaining economic stability, China has little tolerance for unrest and often deals with it brutally. However, actual life in China doesn't feel like living under a police state.
While corruption in is China is prevalent at the local level, the upper echelons of the government are fairly unaffected. The official policy and attitudes against corruption betrays no tolerance for such behavior. Corrupt politicians usually face Draconian measures.
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China is even more screwed than USA. You see all the new highrises going up in cities and talk of cashed up tourists buying louis vutton, what you don't see is the billions of peasants and under-privleged urban dwellers who have very little means to survive let alone own a home.
You don't see the gross pollution around Chinese cities and the growing deserts in China's north. You also don't see the hidden tensions in Chinese society and the vast youth unemployment.
You think China is it? think again, generations of leaders have pushed problems into the future. The country will implode before the fall of America.
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Since 4 can be labeled as the cause of 1, 2, and 3 only 4 needs to be stated. In Japan, we actually have a 7.5 hour work day and our per-person GDP is higher than the states. I was born American, but I will curse the day when I have to live there again. I go back constantly for business trips and I am always appalled at how shitty the American worker has become - lazy, constantly complaining, insane unearned sense of entitlement. It is no longer if Atlas shrugs or not, the weight of the unproductive world (American world) has bloated to unbearable levels. Atlas changed countries.
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looks like all of humanity better get its act together or it'll be the Fall of Earth :x
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I really like it how everyone seems to think, as soon as someone OTHER than the US becomes economically important, it automatically becomes the end of the world and/or the end of the US.
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What do you guys think about forced military service like SK has in America? Could help build some discipline, leadership, and national pride. All good things when considering growth of a nation.
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Zion:
Who said end of the world? Nobody as far as I can tell. Don't troll.
The US relies heavily on its ability to borrow and move funds, if it loses its #1 standing it also loses that ability. This means American consumers would actually be forced to spend what they actually own, versus imagined money they think they will own. i.e. what the rest of the world tends to do. This will bring about a massive shift in American lifestyles which, good for the long term, but bad for the initial economic health of the country.
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Edit: oops, posted in wrong thread.
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On December 06 2010 10:08 haduken wrote:
China is even more screwed than USA. You see all the new highrises going up in cities and talk of cashed up tourists buying louis vutton, what you don't see is the billions of peasants and under-privleged urban dwellers who have very little means to survive let alone own a home.
You don't see the gross pollution around Chinese cities and the growing deserts in China's north. You also don't see the hidden tensions in Chinese society and the vast youth unemployment.
You think China is it? think again, generations of leaders have pushed problems into the future. The country will implode before the fall of America.
You forget the state China was in following the Cultural Revolution. Among those even slightly informed of the country's history, you will not find a single individual who will deny the immense progress the country has made. China is currently investing more in alternative energy than any other nation. They have recently put forth ~$500 billion for the construction of 200 modern nuclear reactors. (just google for the source).
I have little regard for your knee-jerk reactions. But thank you for contributing to the discussion a misguided view which is partially representative of the ignorant population.
User was warned for this post
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The EU, with all its problems, has already surpassed the US economy years ago. Given the huge military spending, the US are doing just fine, of course they could reduce that by 90% and give their citizens a better life, but that's another topic.
China is rising, it will take a few more years, or tens of years, but they will eventually catch up to what we have now in the west. I don't expect the west to stand still for that long, we will move along towards a more post-industrial economy, while china will just have finished developing an industrial one.
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well in a few years India will surpass both US and China :D
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Nothing surprising here, China will eventually catch up, if not overtake. Like what happened to US and UK back then. However I don't think that will be end of US, it's exaggerated because some people are scared.
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Disagree w/OP. You, along with many others, really don't understand economics. Just because China will eventually surpass the US eventually in no way shape or form means the US is going to "fall". Economics is NOT a zero-sum game. Just because one economy rises doesn't mean another has to fall. On the contrary, when one economy does well other economies it interacts with also do well. It's in China's best interest to have the U.S. continue to do well economically.
Take the U.K. for example. 100 years ago it was the worlds leading power and now America is ahead of it by a long shot. But I think England is doing just fine. It's not like they are living in poverty.
China has 5 times as many people as the U.S. 5 times. If anything they should already be ahead of us, with that many people. We should all be happy that China is growing because that only means that literally millions of people will be pulled out of poverty
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Maybe the US should stop spending so much money on national defense... those are good money that could be used somewhere else.
But then again, China has its own issues too.
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On December 06 2010 10:26 Ganondorf wrote:
The EU, with all its problems, has already surpassed the US economy years ago. Given the huge military spending, the US are doing just fine, of course they could reduce that by 90% and give their citizens a better life, but that's another topic.
China is rising, it will take a few more years, or tens of years, but they will eventually catch up to what we have now in the west. I don't expect the west to stand still for that long, we will move along towards a more post-industrial economy, while china will just have finished developing an industrial one.
America is already post-industrial. America's brand of post-industrial economy is the main reason why it is failing.
Look at Japan. Technically, they are post-industrial in the sense that they rely heavily on their hi-tech sector. But technically, that is still REAL industry which produces real products and contributes to technological advancement.
America is more interested in the production of transient and worthless financial derivatives - the image of an image of an image of a real thing.
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Hearing from my uncle who lived in China the past 6 years about the progress they have made is just incredible.
I'm just going to focus on public transport here because it's really interesting but you can apply the differences in progress to almost any sector.
When he first moved there it took him 2 hours to get to work by car. Around 4 years ago the government built 10 new subways with a train that can get him from source to destination in 19 minutes, 13 direct with no stops. 350kmh.
Meanwhile in Australia the government has spent millions on dollars on 22 different feasability reports over the last ~20 years on a train line from Canberra to Sydney that would end up using ancient technology by today's standards and go 140kmh max. Nothing has happened. Where I live they have talked about electrifying the train lines for 12 years so we can be put on the metro train service instead of country. Again nothing has happened.
Victoria just got a new ticketing system that cost $1.3 billion AUD designed by some random American company. It barely works, zones are broken and it is more inconvienient than the old system. A West Australian company designed the Octopus system that is used in Hong Kong. If anyone has experienced how straightforward it is to use Octopus you will know that it is how all ticketing systems should work. Instead our retarded state government goes overseas to a company that bought some minister a nice dinner. Bam, there goes $1.3 billion of the taxpayers money. At least we get to suffer the piece of shit that is Myki as a reward. $1.3 billion dollars could have been invested and provided free public transport to every Victorian for the next 24 years.
I don't necessarily agree with just having a single party controlling everything but in the case of China - it just damn works. Things just get done, there is no screwing around. The most frustrating aspect of a bipartisan system is the pointless arguing and delaying over things obviously for the common good of everyone.
I was also interested to learn that the demand for workers is so high in China that pay is increasing by 8-10% every year which is huge. One of the largest manufacturing companies in China employs over a million people. They have their own hospitals (healthy employees work better) and schools (smart people right into a job makes sense) and run a paperfree work environment.
Also on overpopulation - China is the only country in the world (that I know of, correct me if I am wrong) that has tried to do anything drastic about it with the one child policy. The side effects of the policy are starting to show with an aging population and emerging social problems as a result of the "one" children growing up being spoiled by their parents who can now afford luxury items. A lot of the kids are now in their twenties and don't want to work in factories, they want a desk job. This also contributes to the lack of "fresh" factory workers. Time will tell how that one pans out.
India will be the largest country population wise by 2050 and the world will have around 10 billion people. The current population is around 6 billion. Overpopulation is going to be a massive problem in the coming decades.
Meanwhile I can't say much good has come from America since around the Vietnam war. Like Australia it is a country stuck in politics and fear mongering with no one willing to acknowledge or do anything about the problems it's citizens face. At least we have lots of raw materials that China likes buying from us in Australia.
Overall, China impresses me. I like living in Australia but slow progress annoys me.
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On December 06 2010 10:25 Consolidate wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2010 10:08 haduken wrote:
China is even more screwed than USA. You see all the new highrises going up in cities and talk of cashed up tourists buying louis vutton, what you don't see is the billions of peasants and under-privleged urban dwellers who have very little means to survive let alone own a home.
You don't see the gross pollution around Chinese cities and the growing deserts in China's north. You also don't see the hidden tensions in Chinese society and the vast youth unemployment.
You think China is it? think again, generations of leaders have pushed problems into the future. The country will implode before the fall of America. You forget the state China was in following the Cultural Revolution. Among those even slightly informed of the country's history, you will not find a single individual who will deny the immense progress the country has made. China is currently investing more in alternative energy than any other nation. They have recently put forth ~$500 billion for the construction of 200 modern nuclear reactors. (just google for the source). I have little regard for your knee-jerk reactions. But thank you for contributing to the discussion a misguided view which is partially representative of the ignorant population.
That's very true, and if their recent claims of having developed a fusion reactor are true, they're light years ahead of us on energy. However, china has a growing debt, and it also has a looming housing bubble. Not to mention, since china has started throwing its weight around, businesses have started looking for greener pastures (korea, india, brazil, etc). While they're still on the up and up, and will remain so for probably the next 10 years, China has serious problems that need to be addressed if it expects to remain a stable state.
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EPT
