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51447 Posts
On December 06 2010 10:35 vek wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Text] +Hearing from my uncle who lived in China the past 6 years about the progress they have made is just incredible.
I'm just going to focus on public transport here because it's really interesting but you can apply the differences in progress to almost any sector.
When he first moved there it took him 2 hours to get to work by car. Around 4 years ago the government built 10 new subways with a train that can get him from source to destination in 19 minutes, 13 direct with no stops. 350kmh.
Meanwhile in Australia the government has spent millions on dollars on 22 different feasability reports over the last ~20 years on a train line from Canberra to Sydney that would end up using ancient technology by today's standards and go 140kmh max. Nothing has happened. Where I live they have talked about electrifying the train lines for 12 years so we can be put on the metro train service instead of country. Again nothing has happened.
Victoria just got a new ticketing system that cost $1.3 billion AUD designed by some random American company. It barely works, zones are broken and it is more inconvienient than the old system. A West Australian company designed the Octopus system that is used in Hong Kong. If anyone has experienced how straightforward it is to use Octopus you will know that it is how all ticketing systems should work. Instead our retarded state government goes overseas to a company that bought some minister a nice dinner. Bam, there goes $1.3 billion of the taxpayers money. At least we get to suffer the piece of shit that is Myki as a reward. $1.3 billion dollars could have been invested and provided free public transport to every Victorian for the next 24 years.
I don't necessarily agree with just having a single party controlling everything but in the case of China - it just damn works. Things just get done, there is no screwing around. The most frustrating aspect of a bipartisan system is the pointless arguing and delaying over things obviously for the common good of everyone.
I was also interested to learn that the demand for workers is so high in China that pay is increasing by 8-10% every year which is huge. One of the largest manufacturing companies in China employs over a million people. They have their own hospitals (healthy employees work better) and schools (smart people right into a job makes sense) and run a paperfree work environment.
Also on overpopulation - China is the only country in the world (that I know of, correct me if I am wrong) that has tried to do anything drastic about it with the one child policy. The side effects of the policy are starting to show with an aging population and emerging social problems as a result of the "one" children growing up being spoiled by their parents who can now afford luxury items. A lot of the kids are now in their twenties and don't want to work in factories, they want a desk job. This also contributes to the lack of "fresh" factory workers. Time will tell how that one pans out.
India will be the largest country population wise by 2050 and the world will have around 10 billion people. The current population is around 6 billion. Overpopulation is going to be a massive problem in the coming decades.
Meanwhile I can't say much good has come from America since around the Vietnam war. Like Australia it is a country stuck in politics and fear mongering with no one willing to acknowledge or do anything about the problems it's citizens face. At least we have lots of raw materials that China likes buying from us in Australia.
Overall, China impresses me. I like living in Australia but slow progress annoys me.
Agreed wholeheartedly. Australia is nice but I swear some stuff is backwards (like public transport as you mentioned and internet).
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On December 06 2010 10:35 pfods wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2010 10:25 Consolidate wrote:On December 06 2010 10:08 haduken wrote:
China is even more screwed than USA. You see all the new highrises going up in cities and talk of cashed up tourists buying louis vutton, what you don't see is the billions of peasants and under-privleged urban dwellers who have very little means to survive let alone own a home.
You don't see the gross pollution around Chinese cities and the growing deserts in China's north. You also don't see the hidden tensions in Chinese society and the vast youth unemployment.
You think China is it? think again, generations of leaders have pushed problems into the future. The country will implode before the fall of America. You forget the state China was in following the Cultural Revolution. Among those even slightly informed of the country's history, you will not find a single individual who will deny the immense progress the country has made. China is currently investing more in alternative energy than any other nation. They have recently put forth ~$500 billion for the construction of 200 modern nuclear reactors. (just google for the source). I have little regard for your knee-jerk reactions. But thank you for contributing to the discussion a misguided view which is partially representative of the ignorant population. That's very true, and if their recent claims of having developed a fusion reactor are true, they're light years ahead of us on energy. However, china has a growing debt, and it also has a looming housing bubble. Not to mention, since china has started throwing its weight around, businesses have started looking for greener pastures (korea, india, brazil, etc). While they're still on the up and up, and will remain so for probably the next 10 years, China has serious problems that need to be addressed if it expects to remain a stable state.
Scientifically we don't know how to do fusion yet. So no, they aren't building fusion plants. The day we can do fusion is the day we no longer have to worry about energy 
They are building fission plants, which the US has too. Fission plants are more efficient and environment friendly than some other forms of energy, but only if no accidents happen.
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I wouldn't be so quick to crown the rise of China just yet, they have not proved immune to the problems associated with growth and they certainly lacking in some critical areas (namely education reform).
On December 06 2010 10:39 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Scientifically we don't know how to do fusion yet. So no, they aren't building fusion plants. The day we can do fusion is the day we no longer have to worry about energy
More like the day that fusion comes into play, everyone will have to worry about energy.
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On December 06 2010 10:29 happyness wrote:
Disagree w/OP. You, along with many others, really don't understand economics. Just because China will eventually surpass the US eventually in no way shape or form means the US is going to "fall". Economics is NOT a zero-sum game. Just because one economy rises doesn't mean another has to fall. On the contrary, when one economy does well other economies it interacts with also do well. It's in China's best interest to have the U.S. continue to do well economically.
Take the U.K. for example. 100 years ago it was the worlds leading power and now America is ahead of it by a long shot. But I think England is doing just fine. It's not like they are living in poverty.
China has 5 times as many people as the U.S. 5 times. If anything they should already be ahead of us, with that many people. We should all be happy that China is growing because that only means that literally millions of people will be pulled out of poverty
Fall as a world power, which Britain has. We honour them highly out of respect and tradition, not because of their power.
The reason over population is not a problem is that we have enough money and resources to feed them. We simply need the motivation and distribution set up to get the food to the poor. Either that, or the poor simply die off, and it's still no problem to the country. It doesn't affect China at all whether they live or die. It is simply morally wrong to let people starve.
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There's one thing that many people do not realize about China's economic growth. The rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer. This is one fundamental problem that China has to overcome.
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On December 06 2010 10:29 happyness wrote:
Disagree w/OP. You, along with many others, really don't understand economics. Just because China will eventually surpass the US eventually in no way shape or form means the US is going to "fall". Economics is NOT a zero-sum game. Just because one economy rises doesn't mean another has to fall. On the contrary, when one economy does well other economies it interacts with also do well. It's in China's best interest to have the U.S. continue to do well economically.
Take the U.K. for example. 100 years ago it was the worlds leading power and now America is ahead of it by a long shot. But I think England is doing just fine. It's not like they are living in poverty.
China has 5 times as many people as the U.S. 5 times. If anything they should already be ahead of us, with that many people. We should all be happy that China is growing because that only means that literally millions of people will be pulled out of poverty
I understand economics perfectly well. Well enough to say that during a global recession, economics is worse than zero-sum - it is negative sum.
Of course it is in China's best interest for America to do well. Technically it is in everyone's best interest for everyone else to do well. The real issue is that China is less dependent on America than vice-versa. Why is it that China is among the least affected by the failure of America's financial sector?
When I allude to the Fall of America I'm speaking in relative terms - I'm not speaking about it's collapse.
I am in agreement that China's rise is a good thing. No human being deserves the burden of poverty. China is not a threat, nor should it be viewed as a threat. If anything, it's a nation governed by certain sensibilities American should learn from.
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On December 06 2010 10:40 Blisse wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2010 10:29 happyness wrote:
Disagree w/OP. You, along with many others, really don't understand economics. Just because China will eventually surpass the US eventually in no way shape or form means the US is going to "fall". Economics is NOT a zero-sum game. Just because one economy rises doesn't mean another has to fall. On the contrary, when one economy does well other economies it interacts with also do well. It's in China's best interest to have the U.S. continue to do well economically.
Take the U.K. for example. 100 years ago it was the worlds leading power and now America is ahead of it by a long shot. But I think England is doing just fine. It's not like they are living in poverty.
China has 5 times as many people as the U.S. 5 times. If anything they should already be ahead of us, with that many people. We should all be happy that China is growing because that only means that literally millions of people will be pulled out of poverty Fall as a world power, which Britain has. We honour them highly out of respect and tradition, not because of their power.
My point was that even though U.K. isn't a world power, it's still a good place to live and the people there have as high a standard of living as the U.S. The OP said america is fucked, which really isn't the case at all.
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Japan was also supposed to be the downfall of America in the 80's their economy soared and the doom of America was on the horizon.
America's business model is that of long term success through innovation. China is growing fast because they are cutting a few corners to show short term growth. Let's see where they are in 30 years.
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If the US dollar crumbles, the dept china has purchased also devalues into nothing, wasting their money... China already knows they will NEVER get any money back from the USA, what they purchased is a cost to keep the USA alive and kicking.
When China purchases trillions of dollars of US dept only to see it evaporate, they lose a lot of their spending power... since well purchased dept is an asset, which makes China's economy look better than it actually is.
(Basically every dollar China has purchased in US dept shows up as a purchased asset, and then is subsequently written off as a bad dept as time goes on, this is allowed as the USA buys so much stuff that it is a major factor in the Chinease economy.)
Hell, even hypothetically, china starts to produce high tech expensive goods... they still need consumers, and those consumers are the USA. Chine NEEDS the USA. Without the USA they lose a TONNE of customers and as such a TONNE of income.
People seem to miss this point when talking about China surpassing the USA. Sure China may end up with an overall Economy larger than the USA, but China will forever continue to spend money to keep the USA buying things from China... the USA will never fall, simply because they are tied to too many economies (Canada, China, EU, etc...).
Everyone pays to keep the USA buying, its just what we do. This is why the American dollar is not worth absolutely nothing with trillions of dollars in dept... simply because other countries are keeping the US dollar artificially inflated.
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As well, the USA will never lose its power for two major reasons:
1) Buying power... the amount of stuff the USA buys in a year is staggering, this means people pay to keep the beast buying. The USA will always be a beast with a hunger and people will keep feeding it.
2) Military power... even in this day and age, the USA has military personnel in most countries in the world, in some countries the American soldiers based there outnumber the countries own military. Even beyond that, the technology the American military brings to bear out matches everyone else in the world...
To put this into perspective, the American airforce can kill every single airforce of all other countries combined alone, simply because of the number of pilots and how advanced their planes are compared to those in other countries.
This is also true of naval warfare and armored warfare, and missile warfare...
The only point in which the US military cannot kill every other military in the world is on foot, with soldiers, where their numbers pale in comparison to those in other countries, the only problem is when you have air and sea superiority it makes land superiority worth MUCH MUCH MUCH less.
Where am I going with this? The USA will never LET its self fall from grace... when a country is in desperation it does desperate things... now take a country that can take over the whole world with its military and then take the money the country has... it will lash out and force people to pay them, even if that means they have to conquer countries to do so.
Do not kid your self... if the USA was to fall (even though it never will), that would most likely be the catalyst to WW3... and well... no one wants to see how that ends.
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On December 06 2010 10:40 Judicator wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2010 10:39 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Scientifically we don't know how to do fusion yet. So no, they aren't building fusion plants. The day we can do fusion is the day we no longer have to worry about energy More like the day that fusion comes into play, everyone will have to worry about energy.
Are you predicting that it would be more dangerous than current energy sources? Maybe it would be, but by then we'll have much more robust and advanced engineering and less risk of accidents. With fusion technology we'd be able to do anything we wanted energy wise with no risk of running out.
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I always start to type an informed response to OPs like this but then rage-delete it because I will likely get banned when I tell you like it is or when I say something offensive to the American sheep-brain.
Basically if you have no background in Chinese history, culture, or language you cannot begin to understand anything about this place much less "discuss" these matters in comparison with the United States and its current situation.
I do love when kids from the suburbs start bleat-parroting about "human-rights". As if the US was some bastion of decency and good-will with Guantanamo, FEMA, and the Patriot Act, to name a few, as mere exceptions to the otherwise blemish-free humanitarianism.
User was temp banned for this post.
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China has too many people to not be an economic super power. India will get there as well. But just because china becomes a larger economy does not mean the US economy wont be massive, and its not like the US will implode the second its no longer the worlds largest economy. China isnt going to just immediatly turn around and try to fuck the US in every possible way.
I think there is to much doom and gloom in these scenerios, plenty of other countries survive without being the worlds economic super power. (the US will too! life in the US likely wont face a notable change just because the chinese economy surpasses the US)
The Chinese and US economy are so connected even now, I doubt 30 years from now it will be much different.
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On December 06 2010 10:47 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2010 10:40 Judicator wrote:On December 06 2010 10:39 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Scientifically we don't know how to do fusion yet. So no, they aren't building fusion plants. The day we can do fusion is the day we no longer have to worry about energy More like the day that fusion comes into play, everyone will have to worry about energy. Are you predicting that it would be more dangerous than current energy sources? Maybe it would be, but by then we'll have much more robust and advanced engineering and less risk of accidents. With fusion technology we'd be able to do anything we wanted energy wise with no risk of running out.
I am saying the concept of scarcity is a critical component of how the world works right now. Given how globalization has marginalized the don't-have-it countries already, what do you think a new, (near-)infinite energy source in the hands of let's just say a corporation will do?
If you want a better idea, think prescription drugs.
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america spends more on the military than the top 20 countries...combined. America is going nowhere...unless we get nuked off.
Once WW3 hits the U.S. should rise out of the economic slump and back to being the steadfast superpower it is.
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Sanya12364 Posts
On December 06 2010 10:44 Enervate wrote:
There's one thing that many people do not realize about China's economic growth. The rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer. This is one fundamental problem that China has to overcome.
Poor are doing just fine. If the poor were doing worse off, they would be riots in the streets. There is some amount of injustice and inflation rates are bad but it's like that everywhere and probably more so in the US. The pyramid wealth distribution is developing like it did in the US about a century ago.
Because of the global downturn, the economy needs to establish a new base, and that means repricing a lot of assets. The sooner the repricing happens the sooner the people can get on with economic growth. As usual, politics are getting in the way and thus the bailouts.
US might be in a UK post-WW-II-style malaise. The EU will be in a similar position. Japan as well. But it's nothing to really debate. The demographics and economic development trajectories are readily apparent.
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On December 06 2010 10:48 Redunzl wrote:
I always start to type an informed response to OPs like this but then rage-delete it because I will likely get banned if I tell you like it is.
Basically if you have no background in Chinese history, culture, or language you cannot begin to understand anything about this place much less "discuss" these matters in comparison with the United States and its current situation.
I do love when kids from the suburbs start bleat-parroting about "human-rights". As if the US was some bastion of decency and good-will with Guantanamo, FEMA, and the Patriot Act, to name a few, as mere exceptions to the otherwise blemish-free humanitarianism.
may be true but not really the topic here i guess...
to the OP:
maybe china will overtake america...who knows...
and i'm absolutely not in the position to speculate about that, since my knowledge in this specific topic is not really that big...
but what i know is, that with the process of industrialization in pretty much every country of europe (especially the uk, france and germany) back then aswell as in america, there was some sort of revolution and civil unrests due to a standard, which was not really in favor of the people who were doing the actual work...so i guess sooner or later this will also be same case for china...
and since the proportions are related to the us so much bigger i guess the impact of those most likely scenarios will also be much bigger and much more hurtful and end in results which will bring down the rise of china in one way or another...
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Hmmm, the most populous nation in the world with a history of economic domination aside from the past few centuries is becoming a world power? Shocking. After all, it's totally reasonable for Americans to continue to out-earn Chinese people 7:1 forever.
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I don't really see how America's decline somehow proves Nietzsche's views on the decline of the west. Heck, most of those have been overhyped. I don't really think Nietzsche was too concerned with GPD in regards to a nations progress. While no doubt there are cultural faults which Nietzsche is perfectly correct on, the whole 'liberalism is the death of mankind' stuff is too easy to misrepresent to simple brutal nationalism.
In the end I believe that cultural change is subservient to the greater economic and political forces. In the end culture, and the subject aren't really that important. I know this is somewhat couner intuitive, but I've never been convinced by any argument to contrary. All this talk of laziness, 'cultural decline' ect. is largely sociological fluff.
In the end the economics will be the deciding factor. Marx might have been wrong about alot, but he understood something that cultural elitists like Nietzsche didn't, the value of bread. There are million different forces at work in a society, while American exceptionalism will play a role in it's decline, it also played a role in it's rise. The situation is complex, and the OPs predictions are probably correct, but there's more to America's problems than it's exceptionalism.
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On December 06 2010 10:46 Aurdon wrote:
Japan was also supposed to be the downfall of America in the 80's their economy soared and the doom of America was on the horizon.
America's business model is that of long term success through innovation. China is growing fast because they are cutting a few corners to show short term growth. Let's see where they are in 30 years.
Japan is limited by land and resources. They have done remarkable well with what they have. As for innovation...have you any idea now difficult it is to obtain research grants in the US? Innovation is not an innate property of the American people. It is a concept which needs support and encouragement, neither of which the US is willing to provide given the fact that its money is tied up elsewhere. Free-market is not enough, I can make 10 times the salary of an engineer as a banker.
On December 06 2010 10:47 Insanious wrote:
If the US dollar crumbles, the dept china has purchased also devalues into nothing, wasting their money... China already knows they will NEVER get any money back from the USA, what they purchased is a cost to keep the USA alive and kicking.
When China purchases trillions of dollars of US dept only to see it evaporate, they lose a lot of their spending power... since well purchased dept is an asset, which makes China's economy look better than it actually is.
(Basically every dollar China has purchased in US dept shows up as a purchased asset, and then is subsequently written off as a bad dept as time goes on, this is allowed as the USA buys so much stuff that it is a major factor in the Chinease economy.)
Hell, even hypothetically, china starts to produce high tech expensive goods... they still need consumers, and those consumers are the USA. Chine NEEDS the USA. Without the USA they lose a TONNE of customers and as such a TONNE of income.
People seem to miss this point when talking about China surpassing the USA. Sure China may end up with an overall Economy larger than the USA, but China will forever continue to spend money to keep the USA buying things from China... the USA will never fall, simply because they are tied to too many economies (Canada, China, EU, etc...).
Everyone pays to keep the USA buying, its just what we do. This is why the American dollar is not worth absolutely nothing with trillions of dollars in dept... simply because other countries are keeping the US dollar artificially inflated.
- - - -
As well, the USA will never lose its power for two major reasons:
1) Buying power... the amount of stuff the USA buys in a year is staggering, this means people pay to keep the beast buying. The USA will always be a beast with a hunger and people will keep feeding it.
2) Military power... even in this day and age, the USA has military personnel in most countries in the world, in some countries the American soldiers based there outnumber the countries own military. Even beyond that, the technology the American military brings to bear out matches everyone else in the world...
To put this into perspective, the American airforce can kill every single airforce of all other countries combined alone, simply because of the number of pilots and how advanced their planes are compared to those in other countries.
This is also true of naval warfare and armored warfare, and missile warfare...
The only point in which the US military cannot kill every other military in the world is on foot, with soldiers, where their numbers pale in comparison to those in other countries, the only problem is when you have air and sea superiority it makes land superiority worth MUCH MUCH MUCH less.
Where am I going with this? The USA will never LET its self fall from grace... when a country is in desperation it does desperate things... now take a country that can take over the whole world with its military and then take the money the country has... it will lash out and force people to pay them, even if that means they have to conquer countries to do so.
Do not kid your self... if the USA was to fall (even though it never will), that would most likely be the catalyst to WW3... and well... no one wants to see how that ends.
First point. The US dollar IS is danger of losing it's status as the world's reserve currency. The fact that America has never defaulted on its debt will mean nothing if it continues to devalue the dollar.
Second point. I have no idea where you are going with this military nonsense. Both nations understand that war will never break out between them. Consequently, the idea of the US leveraging any military threat is preposterous. Never mind the fact that it is already stretched too thin.
Sigh... how do you people get off with writing tripe like "don't kid yourself". It's honestly staggering.
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