China has a huge aging population and a shrinking work force. It can't sustain its growth for the next 20 years. This much is a fact.
You think most of the stuff right now are 'Made in China'. But as China's work force shrinks, labour price will rise, and the big companies can easily move elsewhere for cheaper labour... such as Southeast Asia (I am already seeing products from these regions on the rise), India, and certain parts of Africa.
The income disparity in China is already causing a lot of trouble. Just look at the ethnic riots in the last couple of years, all happened in poor provinces.
On December 06 2010 10:29 happyness wrote: Disagree w/OP. You, along with many others, really don't understand economics. Just because China will eventually surpass the US eventually in no way shape or form means the US is going to "fall". Economics is NOT a zero-sum game. Just because one economy rises doesn't mean another has to fall. On the contrary, when one economy does well other economies it interacts with also do well. It's in China's best interest to have the U.S. continue to do well economically.
Take the U.K. for example. 100 years ago it was the worlds leading power and now America is ahead of it by a long shot. But I think England is doing just fine. It's not like they are living in poverty.
China has 5 times as many people as the U.S. 5 times. If anything they should already be ahead of us, with that many people. We should all be happy that China is growing because that only means that literally millions of people will be pulled out of poverty
I understand economics perfectly well. Well enough to say that during a global recession, economics is worse than zero-sum - it is negative sum.
Of course it is in China's best interest for America to do well. Technically it is in everyone's best interest for everyone else to do well. The real issue is that China is less dependent on America than vice-versa. Why is it that China is among the least affected by the failure of America's financial sector?
When I allude to the Fall of America I'm speaking in relative terms - I'm not speaking about it's collapse.
Ok. From the OP it sounded like you were saying America is screwed because China's rising.
I am in agreement that China's rise is a good thing. No human being deserves the burden of poverty. China is not a threat, nor should it be viewed as a threat. If anything, it's a nation governed by certain sensibilities American should learn from.
China has risen because of adapting U.S. sensibilities (i.e. free market). As I said, China has so many more people than the U.S. they should surpass the U.S. eventually.
About the original question, the U.S. for the most part shouldn't follow china's way of doing things. It may be true that we have a lazy and complacent public. But I think that is often exaggerated. Americans still work more than many other industrialized nations and do effective work.
But my question to you is: what exactly are you suggesting should be done about this? Should the government get involved, like the chinese govt does with their people? Because I would definately say no to that. I believe that to change a nation culturally it has to come from the individuals and not through government force.
One thing I feel the U.S. should adapt from china though is their lack of debt. The financial crisis was caused by an inflated market due to creditors and such. Again it has to be a cultural change that I'm sure will happen. At the very least the U.S. govt should get rid of the national debt, but I don't think thats going to happen.
The direct method is through government subsidies. But the two-party system is a mess. I expect nothing from Congress.
Americans need to learn how to be industrious again. College graduates need to feel compelled toward productive careers, but they find themselves without adequate incentive.
Projecting much?
Your first post cites nothing concrete in terms of argument; you throw out vague phrases like "inefficient service sector" and "complacent public" with the hopes of drawing in some sort of debate. I'd usually call troll, but for some reason I think you are attempting to be serious.
On December 06 2010 11:46 Sufficiency wrote: China has a huge aging population and a shrinking work force. It can't sustain its growth for the next 20 years. This much is a fact.
You think most of the stuff right now are 'Made in China'. But as China's work force shrinks, labour price will rise, and the big companies can easily move elsewhere for cheaper labour... such as Southeast Asia (I am already seeing products from these regions on the rise), India, and certain parts of Africa.
The income disparity in China is already causing a lot of trouble. Just look at the ethnic riots in the last couple of years, all happened in poor provinces.
If it relies on pure manufacturing for it's growth, then your point is arguable. As it stands, China is investing heavily into hi-tech sectors and affording copious research grants to grow it's specialized workforce.
Whether or not ~8%-10% growth is perfectly maintainable is a cosmetic concern.
On December 06 2010 10:08 haduken wrote: China is even more screwed than USA. You see all the new highrises going up in cities and talk of cashed up tourists buying louis vutton, what you don't see is the billions of peasants and under-privleged urban dwellers who have very little means to survive let alone own a home.
You don't see the gross pollution around Chinese cities and the growing deserts in China's north. You also don't see the hidden tensions in Chinese society and the vast youth unemployment.
You think China is it? think again, generations of leaders have pushed problems into the future. The country will implode before the fall of America.
You forget the state China was in following the Cultural Revolution. Among those even slightly informed of the country's history, you will not find a single individual who will deny the immense progress the country has made. China is currently investing more in alternative energy than any other nation. They have recently put forth ~$500 billion for the construction of 200 modern nuclear reactors. (just google for the source).
I have little regard for your knee-jerk reactions. But thank you for contributing to the discussion a misguided view which is partially representative of the ignorant population.
That's very true, and if their recent claims of having developed a fusion reactor are true, they're light years ahead of us on energy. However, china has a growing debt, and it also has a looming housing bubble. Not to mention, since china has started throwing its weight around, businesses have started looking for greener pastures (korea, india, brazil, etc). While they're still on the up and up, and will remain so for probably the next 10 years, China has serious problems that need to be addressed if it expects to remain a stable state.
Scientifically we don't know how to do fusion yet. So no, they aren't building fusion plants. The day we can do fusion is the day we no longer have to worry about energy
They are building fission plants, which the US has too. Fission plants are more efficient and environment friendly than some other forms of energy, but only if no accidents happen.
I'm aware of the difference. And i'm aware that they don't exist yet. Which is why i said " their recent claims of having developed a fusion reactor are true". If this claim is true though, then it has serious implications. Even their goal of 200 fission reactors by 2020 is a big deal.
On December 06 2010 11:00 Retgery wrote: I would be more afraid that China currently own 10% of USA's dept (about 170 billion) right this second, and if they suddenly stop covering they can send your ecnomy into a tail spin and you'll be in another depression
This is scare tactics used by debt hounds in the US congress and senate.
If china did call in the debt, we just wouldn't pay. What would chinas response be? Would they attempt to topple the dollar? If they did that, they would bring down half of the worlds majors economies. They would literally be committing national suicide if they did that. Not to mention if they tried we'd slap a 200% tariff on any Chinese imports, or something ridiculous like that. If you want to see an economy go into a tail spin, think of china with no US trade.
Here is an interesting video that tracks the health and wealth of 200 countries over 200 years. It also touches on internal disparity in China. The thrust of the video is to show the general trending of countries into the future.
On December 06 2010 11:00 Retgery wrote: I would be more afraid that China currently own 10% of USA's dept (about 170 billion) right this second, and if they suddenly stop covering they can send your ecnomy into a tail spin and you'll be in another depression
This is scare tactics used by debt hounds in the US congress and senate.
If china did call in the debt, we just wouldn't pay. What would chinas response be? Would they attempt to topple the dollar? If they did that, they would bring down half of the worlds majors economies. They would literally be committing national suicide if they did that. Not to mention if they tried we'd slap a 200% tariff on any Chinese imports, or something ridiculous like that. If you want to see an economy go into a tail spin, think of china with no US trade.
No the US wouldn't retaliate. Neither side will make a move, both economies are both very intertwined that its in the best interest for both to work together. Neither side really holds the upper hand where they can force the other, but China has gotten better part of the deal (emphasis on the relative nature of the word better).
On December 06 2010 10:29 happyness wrote: Disagree w/OP. You, along with many others, really don't understand economics. Just because China will eventually surpass the US eventually in no way shape or form means the US is going to "fall". Economics is NOT a zero-sum game. Just because one economy rises doesn't mean another has to fall. On the contrary, when one economy does well other economies it interacts with also do well. It's in China's best interest to have the U.S. continue to do well economically.
Take the U.K. for example. 100 years ago it was the worlds leading power and now America is ahead of it by a long shot. But I think England is doing just fine. It's not like they are living in poverty.
China has 5 times as many people as the U.S. 5 times. If anything they should already be ahead of us, with that many people. We should all be happy that China is growing because that only means that literally millions of people will be pulled out of poverty
I understand economics perfectly well. Well enough to say that during a global recession, economics is worse than zero-sum - it is negative sum.
Of course it is in China's best interest for America to do well. Technically it is in everyone's best interest for everyone else to do well. The real issue is that China is less dependent on America than vice-versa. Why is it that China is among the least affected by the failure of America's financial sector?
When I allude to the Fall of America I'm speaking in relative terms - I'm not speaking about it's collapse.
Ok. From the OP it sounded like you were saying America is screwed because China's rising.
I am in agreement that China's rise is a good thing. No human being deserves the burden of poverty. China is not a threat, nor should it be viewed as a threat. If anything, it's a nation governed by certain sensibilities American should learn from.
China has risen because of adapting U.S. sensibilities (i.e. free market). As I said, China has so many more people than the U.S. they should surpass the U.S. eventually.
About the original question, the U.S. for the most part shouldn't follow china's way of doing things. It may be true that we have a lazy and complacent public. But I think that is often exaggerated. Americans still work more than many other industrialized nations and do effective work.
But my question to you is: what exactly are you suggesting should be done about this? Should the government get involved, like the chinese govt does with their people? Because I would definately say no to that. I believe that to change a nation culturally it has to come from the individuals and not through government force.
One thing I feel the U.S. should adapt from china though is their lack of debt. The financial crisis was caused by an inflated market due to creditors and such. Again it has to be a cultural change that I'm sure will happen. At the very least the U.S. govt should get rid of the national debt, but I don't think thats going to happen.
The direct method is through government subsidies. But the two-party system is a mess. I expect nothing from Congress.
Americans need to learn how to be industrious again. College graduates need to feel compelled toward productive careers, but they find themselves without adequate incentive.
Projecting much?
Your first post cites nothing concrete in terms of argument; you throw out vague phrases like "inefficient service sector" and "complacent public" with the hopes of drawing in some sort of debate. I'd usually call troll, but for some reason I think you are attempting to be serious.
Yes. I made it explicit that I am partially projecting my own motivations.
Government spending numbers are concrete enough. I can provide a few more if you are interested.
As my talk of a complacent public, I don't know what evidence there is beyond broad observations. That the service sector is stealing away talent other industries is fairly well-known. The fact that financial institutions are either incompetent or corrupt is fairly accepted as well.
Goldman Sachs sold junk mortgage-backed securities rated as AAA, while also purchasing an absurd amount of credit-default swaps against the very product they were peddling. This was a clever maneuver that made them a good deal of money, but this is money won on successful gambling at the expense of others who bet poorly. This sort of money made is zero-sum and not productive - thus I consider it to be an inefficient sector contributing to the growth of the economy.
Any other objections? (yeah yeah passive-aggressive i know*)
As a well educated middle class emerges they will question their government. This is always the way with Authoritarian regimes. When this happens China has to either get in line with the rest of the Democratic world or fall by the wayside.
1. 8~10% is NOT perfectly maintainable. We went through this: "Wow this country is growing so fast it will surpass the US in no time by maintaining this insane growth." The first was the Soviet Union. The second was Japan. The third was so called four tigers. Now we are talking about this again.
The thing is that as you mobilize more and more resource for economic developement the next marginal labor or resource will be less efficient because you mobize more efficient ones first. Even now educated Chinese work force is having diffculty finding a job. This mobilization of resource will hit the wall sooner or later. Remeber. it's easy to reduce your time when you run 100m in 20 seconds, but not when you run in 9.8 seconds.
2. China is not politically stable. Although it looks remarkably stable now, but the government is basically comforting the population at large using economic growth. When the mobilization of resources slows down, Chinese citizens will not put up with shits they are putting up with now.
3. China is rapidly aging. This means that shrinking workerforce and decreased supply of cheap labor, which will drive up the wage and put China in a less competitive position.
Even if China undertakes the US for the biggest economy in the world, that would not mean the end of the world. They are Communists in name only, and nations don't go to war for colonies anymore. There might be some qurrels around regional politics around Middle East and Asia, but it does not involve some Doomsday scenarios like the cold war. China and the US will be rivals but do not have to be enemies.
China will likely fake its numbers if necessary. As long as actual growth remains relatively reasonable, foreign interests probably won't be too effected.
To be frank, I haven't looked deeply into the impact China's aging workforce will have on it's economy. All that I know is that this concern hasn't really discouraged foreign-investment.
On December 06 2010 11:00 Retgery wrote: I would be more afraid that China currently own 10% of USA's dept (about 170 billion) right this second, and if they suddenly stop covering they can send your ecnomy into a tail spin and you'll be in another depression
We'd just invade Canada for natural resources like in Fallout 3. I heard the US military is working on an Igloo breaking bomb that can penetrate even the latest Maple Syrup armor of the Canadian armies :D
China and USA are in symbiosis, kind of like Tasteless and Artosis.
If America falls for any reason Canada is more than likely to suffer a ton as well economically and maybe even from nuclear winds or bio/chemical weapons. Canada is tied to America pretty closely in many ways.
Agree too much liberty has brought the wrong concept into ppl's brain.
If you take a good look at Asian countries, you would find how competitive the education system is compared to USA and how everyone struggled to get a normal job.
six figure for a starting salary in China definitely requires much more than what you have thought.
On December 06 2010 10:11 sk` wrote: Since 4 can be labeled as the cause of 1, 2, and 3 only 4 needs to be stated. In Japan, we actually have a 7.5 hour work day and our per-person GDP is higher than the states. I was born American, but I will curse the day when I have to live there again. I go back constantly for business trips and I am always appalled at how shitty the American worker has become - lazy, constantly complaining, insane unearned sense of entitlement. It is no longer if Atlas shrugs or not, the weight of the unproductive world (American world) has bloated to unbearable levels. Atlas changed countries.
six figure for a starting salary in China definitely requires much more than what you have thought.
Six figure for a starting salary? What kind of career is that? I don't think even in the US you can find handful of positions that have six figures for a starting salary.
On December 06 2010 12:14 frantic.cactus wrote: As a well educated middle class emerges they will question their government. This is always the way with Authoritarian regimes. When this happens China has to either get in line with the rest of the Democratic world or fall by the wayside.
We saw how China handled that with Tienanmen Square. China is the perfect mix of freedom and authoritarianism. Enough freedom to make people happy(or think they're happy), and enough authoritarianism to make sure everyone stays in line. And the wealthier china gets, the happier the majority of its citizens will be. The only real way china is going to see any serious reform is complete economic devastation, where the progress that the communist party touts around as a measure of the success of the party is no longer a viable option in assuaging peoples concerns with their lack of freedom.