Your Most Embarrassing TL Moment?

Oh, I certainly do think that Palin was a good VP pick. A better pick than Biden. This is why:

For a VP pick to be "good" it should:
1. Help the ticket get elected or at least not hurt it.
2. Be capable of being President should the unlikely occur.

One the first note, I think everyone knows that Palin was a better pick then Biden was. In fact she may be the best pick since Reagan chose G.H.W Bush.

When both partys had their conventions, McCain in a few days, blew past Obama in all national polls as well as intrade predictions to win, and in the RCP electoral count prediction. I think that a large part of this was the "Palin Effect". White women preferred Obama before the conventions by a few points, then favored McCain by I think 20 points right after. And there are a LOT of white women in the US.

"After her debut in Dayton and a rush of media coverage, a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 53% now have a favorable opinion of Palin"

"By way of comparison, on the day he was selected as Barack Obama’s running mate, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden was viewed favorably by 43% of voters."

--http://themountainsage.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/palin-makes-good-first-impression-is-viewed-more-favorably-than-biden/

"Teasing our latest NBC/WSJ poll, which comes out at 6:30 pm ET, 34% say that McCain's VP choice of Palin would make them more likely to vote for the Arizona Republican in November"

"By comparison, 24% say that Obama's choice of Biden would make them more likely to vote for Obama in November"

--http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/09/1369551.aspx


On the second point, its a lot harder to tell or to argue that she is qualified to be President. In fact, if Hillary had been the nominee, it would be really hard. But Hillary isn't the nominee, Obama is and that changes everything. Every person who says that Palin is not experienced enough, will inevitably asked why, if she isn't, Obama is.

What we have, is a first term governor with accomplishments and a first term senator without accomplishments. Now, in Obama's defense, it is harder for a Senator to stand out because anything they do has to be voted on by everyone while a governor gets credit for all that happens in a state. It has also been true that since the US was founded, Senators have been arguing that what matters most is foreign experience and governors have been arguing that executive experience matters more. So obviously Obama has more foreign experience than Palin but Palin has more executive experience.

The way I see it, if Palin isn't qualified, then its real hard to argue that Obama is.

Another thing to remember, this inevitable comparison is one that Obama loses just by being part of it. This is because he is number one on the ticket, while she is #2. There is a tiny chance that she would have to be Presient before she had 4 more years of experience, while (if elected), there is a 100% chance that Obama would have to be President.

One final point about Palin. She energized the Republican base. This is important for McCain because he was not exciting to the base. His strength has always been with moderates and independents (this is why he almost lost to Romney). So now that the base in energized (proof is in the boosted fundraising), he can run the election the way he has wanted to all along--as an indepentent thinking maverick. Thats a role he is comfortable with as opposed to trying to appease the GOP base.

That is why Palin is a good pick imo.

Pick a VP who has already been vetted by the media and stands up to the job (handling media). VP picks help you very little but can destroy you very easily.



BTW, many of you remember that a LONG time ago, I wrote that Palin was a good VP pick because it was helping McCain politically. That was a little while after the GOP convention when McCain has climbed high in the polls...

I think it is pretty clear now that I was wrong on this point. In the end, Palin was a mistake.

As to whether she is up to the job of VP or not, I'm not gonna say, but I do think she ended up hurting the campaign.