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Northern Ireland25951 Posts
On July 24 2025 00:03 Poopi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2025 22:52 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 23 2025 16:40 Argonauta wrote:On July 23 2025 07:57 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 23 2025 01:55 rwala wrote:On July 22 2025 08:50 Waxangel wrote:On July 22 2025 08:15 lokol4890 wrote:
I get why maru was "only" top 4 here even though I disagree, but I'm still having a hard time understanding the serral #1, clem #2. Serral's best result the past couple of months is losing to clem. Instead, the pick is reliant on the ever subjective "dominant for 7 years" point, despite clear evidence there were several years in that time span where he wasn't the top player, let alone dominant.
That said, I appreciate the writeup. We'll see soon enough how everyone does. I think one of the bigger changes of the post-Blizzard scene (2020+) is that people who are good are just always gonna be good, and short term results really don't matter quite as much. It's a huge difference from like 2010-2016 where careers were like three years long, and your 'prime' could be like 8 months long. It's boring in a way, but the big picture kinda demands the same-ish people be in the top four all the time. This is a great point, tho I’m curious why you chalk it up to the post-Blizzard era specifically? Strategy games tend to have high early volatility and then decreasing volatility over time as stable metas develop and start to cycle in and out. Which then makes it less about strategy and more about skill expression/execution. Hero is a very big exception here, tho I’m honestly not sure why unless his weird plays are somehow very off meta/unpredictable (I’m not a good enough player to know). I’d probably put Clem at 1 and Maru at 7. I suspect Maru is still injured that’s the only reason why I’d drop him a bit further. Maru was receiving treatment at a hospital for his shoulder before StarCraft II was even released. He's always been injured. Uh Interesting, Do you know more? I always assumed it was due to his SC2 career. I guess playing SC2 doesnt help neither. He was playing BW before StarCraft II, but Maru's mom, in an interview with SSL, said that they turned down a spot on SKT because Maru was already getting treatment for his shoulder. Pretty interesting piece of trivia. Couldn’t they « solve » the issue with physical therapy / working out though?
If it’s anything like my right elbow, no, especially considering Maru had issues at such an early age. It may just be defective and you’re not fixing that.
Even in my early teens I couldn’t throw a ball consistently without getting elbow pains, and I wasn’t regularly doing things that would potentially put strain on it. As a giant cricket fan it stopped me pursuing playing it as I couldn’t bowl or field properly.
On the flipside I had wrist issues from doing a lot of bad habits and hobbies that centred around my wrists and countless hours, but I was able to sort those out with better habits and breaks.
If Maru’s shoulder is anything like my elbow it’s just a bit of bad luck, there’s really nothing that can be done. My joint just doesn’t have the resilience to be pushed at all, even if I’m conscious of ergonomics and best practice.
It’s not everyday debilitating, but actions that require a lot of twitch effort in the joint I can’t do without pain
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Northern Ireland25951 Posts
On July 23 2025 23:39 ejozl wrote:
It's fine and dandy the win rate and avg placement, but serral was surpassed this year by classic and by maru, even if you expand that to 2024. Serral is still the big name that he is, but I think his form is more in question if we are to be fair. His 2024 was insane, but we honestly don't know about 2025.
Not if you expand it to 2024, which was one of the best years anyone has ever shown in SC2 history.
2025 Serral’s had extremely solid results overall, we just don’t have a particularly large sample size to work with in terms of LANs
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Real solid from Serral today
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What a beautiful game SCII is man...
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On July 23 2025 23:39 ejozl wrote:
It's fine and dandy the win rate and avg placement, but serral was surpassed this year by classic and by maru, even if you expand that to 2024. Serral is still the big name that he is, but I think his form is more in question if we are to be fair. His 2024 was insane, but we honestly don't know about 2025.
That's why small sample sizes like 2025 are not good. They heavily distort.
But your statement is also wrong... the average placement for Serral is much better than Maru's in 2025 and also better than Classic's.
Serral's win rates for both years are better than Maru's and Classic's (who played a lot more weeklies versus weaker opponents). With what numbers are you working?
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On July 23 2025 15:27 MJG wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2025 01:55 rwala wrote:On July 22 2025 08:50 Waxangel wrote:On July 22 2025 08:15 lokol4890 wrote:
I get why maru was "only" top 4 here even though I disagree, but I'm still having a hard time understanding the serral #1, clem #2. Serral's best result the past couple of months is losing to clem. Instead, the pick is reliant on the ever subjective "dominant for 7 years" point, despite clear evidence there were several years in that time span where he wasn't the top player, let alone dominant.
That said, I appreciate the writeup. We'll see soon enough how everyone does. I think one of the bigger changes of the post-Blizzard scene (2020+) is that people who are good are just always gonna be good, and short term results really don't matter quite as much. It's a huge difference from like 2010-2016 where careers were like three years long, and your 'prime' could be like 8 months long. It's boring in a way, but the big picture kinda demands the same-ish people be in the top four all the time. This is a great point, tho I’m curious why you chalk it up to the post-Blizzard era specifically? Strategy games tend to have high early volatility and then decreasing volatility over time as stable metas develop and start to cycle in and out. Which then makes it less about strategy and more about skill expression/execution. Hero is a very big exception here, tho I’m honestly not sure why unless his weird plays are somehow very off meta/unpredictable (I’m not a good enough player to know). Wax mentioned 2010-2016 for a reason. 2016 is when Proleague ended. Without a stable route for talented Korean amateurs to practice, progress, and become top-tier professionals in their own right, the top of the Korean scene has stagnated to the point that going into the military no longer ends careers. The top Korean players haven't gotten better, they've slowly regressed due to a lack of fresh blood. It has nothing to do with the meta settling. It's just that everything after Proleague is an ever paler shadow of what came before. I still love watching though!
I think it’s a mix. Many of today’s top players are undoubtedly better than their past selves; in terms of execution, strategy, and game understanding. Reflexes and speed may decline over time, but the settled meta rewards experience, which in turn raises the entry barrier for newer players.
Also, a lot of the names from the KeSPA era only appeared so frequently because there were far more tournaments to win. If there had only been 10 - 16 major events per year back then, we’d have seen fewer rotating champions and more consistency at the top... similar to what we see today.
You’re absolutely right that new blood had better chances to break through in the earlier years, due to a stronger infrastructure and a more volatile competitive environment. But let’s not forget that the two expansions introduced drastic changes to the game. That constant flux naturally reshuffled the competitive field, rewarding different player strengths. Post-2015, with only minor patches, the game has stabilized, making it easier for veterans to stay on top longer.
What we have seen in recent years, may competitively - in terms of different players or new names - not been the best, but we have definitely seen skill ceilings that by far have not been reached in 2013-2016.
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Very impressive power ranking after day 2. The top 4 has all qualified. 8 of the 9 following players are in the lower bracket (all except poor Byun at #12)
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On July 23 2025 22:52 Mizenhauer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2025 16:40 Argonauta wrote:On July 23 2025 07:57 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 23 2025 01:55 rwala wrote:On July 22 2025 08:50 Waxangel wrote:On July 22 2025 08:15 lokol4890 wrote:
I get why maru was "only" top 4 here even though I disagree, but I'm still having a hard time understanding the serral #1, clem #2. Serral's best result the past couple of months is losing to clem. Instead, the pick is reliant on the ever subjective "dominant for 7 years" point, despite clear evidence there were several years in that time span where he wasn't the top player, let alone dominant.
That said, I appreciate the writeup. We'll see soon enough how everyone does. I think one of the bigger changes of the post-Blizzard scene (2020+) is that people who are good are just always gonna be good, and short term results really don't matter quite as much. It's a huge difference from like 2010-2016 where careers were like three years long, and your 'prime' could be like 8 months long. It's boring in a way, but the big picture kinda demands the same-ish people be in the top four all the time. This is a great point, tho I’m curious why you chalk it up to the post-Blizzard era specifically? Strategy games tend to have high early volatility and then decreasing volatility over time as stable metas develop and start to cycle in and out. Which then makes it less about strategy and more about skill expression/execution. Hero is a very big exception here, tho I’m honestly not sure why unless his weird plays are somehow very off meta/unpredictable (I’m not a good enough player to know). I’d probably put Clem at 1 and Maru at 7. I suspect Maru is still injured that’s the only reason why I’d drop him a bit further. Maru was receiving treatment at a hospital for his shoulder before StarCraft II was even released. He's always been injured. Uh Interesting, Do you know more? I always assumed it was due to his SC2 career. I guess playing SC2 doesnt help neither. He was playing BW before StarCraft II, but Maru's mom, in an interview with SSL, said that they turned down a spot on SKT because Maru was already getting treatment for his shoulder.
Thanks!
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On July 24 2025 05:10 PremoBeats wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2025 15:27 MJG wrote:On July 23 2025 01:55 rwala wrote:On July 22 2025 08:50 Waxangel wrote:On July 22 2025 08:15 lokol4890 wrote:
I get why maru was "only" top 4 here even though I disagree, but I'm still having a hard time understanding the serral #1, clem #2. Serral's best result the past couple of months is losing to clem. Instead, the pick is reliant on the ever subjective "dominant for 7 years" point, despite clear evidence there were several years in that time span where he wasn't the top player, let alone dominant.
That said, I appreciate the writeup. We'll see soon enough how everyone does. I think one of the bigger changes of the post-Blizzard scene (2020+) is that people who are good are just always gonna be good, and short term results really don't matter quite as much. It's a huge difference from like 2010-2016 where careers were like three years long, and your 'prime' could be like 8 months long. It's boring in a way, but the big picture kinda demands the same-ish people be in the top four all the time. This is a great point, tho I’m curious why you chalk it up to the post-Blizzard era specifically? Strategy games tend to have high early volatility and then decreasing volatility over time as stable metas develop and start to cycle in and out. Which then makes it less about strategy and more about skill expression/execution. Hero is a very big exception here, tho I’m honestly not sure why unless his weird plays are somehow very off meta/unpredictable (I’m not a good enough player to know). Wax mentioned 2010-2016 for a reason. 2016 is when Proleague ended. Without a stable route for talented Korean amateurs to practice, progress, and become top-tier professionals in their own right, the top of the Korean scene has stagnated to the point that going into the military no longer ends careers. The top Korean players haven't gotten better, they've slowly regressed due to a lack of fresh blood. It has nothing to do with the meta settling. It's just that everything after Proleague is an ever paler shadow of what came before. I still love watching though! I think it’s a mix. Many of today’s top players are undoubtedly better than their past selves; in terms of execution, strategy, and game understanding. Reflexes and speed may decline over time, but the settled meta rewards experience, which in turn raises the entry barrier for newer players. Also, a lot of the names from the KeSPA era only appeared so frequently because there were far more tournaments to win. If there had only been 10 - 16 major events per year back then, we’d have seen fewer rotating champions and more consistency at the top... similar to what we see today. You’re absolutely right that new blood had better chances to break through in the earlier years, due to a stronger infrastructure and a more volatile competitive environment. But let’s not forget that the two expansions introduced drastic changes to the game. That constant flux naturally reshuffled the competitive field, rewarding different player strengths. Post-2015, with only minor patches, the game has stabilized, making it easier for veterans to stay on top longer. What we have seen in recent years, may competitively - in terms of different players or new names - not been the best, but we have definitely seen skill ceilings that by far have not been reached in 2013-2016.
I mean, current players stand on the shoulders of giants. So sure, they might be better today, but the tournaments are nowhere as competitive as the past.
I think it's common sense by now that progamers peak in the early 20s, and if someone crunched the numbers quickly, I'd say the current median age of the top players (e.g., the 16 or 18 here at EWC) would be close to 30. Meaning very few new players.
Without new players, the game declines in competitiveness.
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Serral vs Reynor is always EPIC
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Put some respect in Solar’s name
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On July 24 2025 16:01 johnnyh123 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2025 05:10 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2025 15:27 MJG wrote:On July 23 2025 01:55 rwala wrote:On July 22 2025 08:50 Waxangel wrote:On July 22 2025 08:15 lokol4890 wrote:
I get why maru was "only" top 4 here even though I disagree, but I'm still having a hard time understanding the serral #1, clem #2. Serral's best result the past couple of months is losing to clem. Instead, the pick is reliant on the ever subjective "dominant for 7 years" point, despite clear evidence there were several years in that time span where he wasn't the top player, let alone dominant.
That said, I appreciate the writeup. We'll see soon enough how everyone does. I think one of the bigger changes of the post-Blizzard scene (2020+) is that people who are good are just always gonna be good, and short term results really don't matter quite as much. It's a huge difference from like 2010-2016 where careers were like three years long, and your 'prime' could be like 8 months long. It's boring in a way, but the big picture kinda demands the same-ish people be in the top four all the time. This is a great point, tho I’m curious why you chalk it up to the post-Blizzard era specifically? Strategy games tend to have high early volatility and then decreasing volatility over time as stable metas develop and start to cycle in and out. Which then makes it less about strategy and more about skill expression/execution. Hero is a very big exception here, tho I’m honestly not sure why unless his weird plays are somehow very off meta/unpredictable (I’m not a good enough player to know). Wax mentioned 2010-2016 for a reason. 2016 is when Proleague ended. Without a stable route for talented Korean amateurs to practice, progress, and become top-tier professionals in their own right, the top of the Korean scene has stagnated to the point that going into the military no longer ends careers. The top Korean players haven't gotten better, they've slowly regressed due to a lack of fresh blood. It has nothing to do with the meta settling. It's just that everything after Proleague is an ever paler shadow of what came before. I still love watching though! I think it’s a mix. Many of today’s top players are undoubtedly better than their past selves; in terms of execution, strategy, and game understanding. Reflexes and speed may decline over time, but the settled meta rewards experience, which in turn raises the entry barrier for newer players. Also, a lot of the names from the KeSPA era only appeared so frequently because there were far more tournaments to win. If there had only been 10 - 16 major events per year back then, we’d have seen fewer rotating champions and more consistency at the top... similar to what we see today. You’re absolutely right that new blood had better chances to break through in the earlier years, due to a stronger infrastructure and a more volatile competitive environment. But let’s not forget that the two expansions introduced drastic changes to the game. That constant flux naturally reshuffled the competitive field, rewarding different player strengths. Post-2015, with only minor patches, the game has stabilized, making it easier for veterans to stay on top longer. What we have seen in recent years, may competitively - in terms of different players or new names - not been the best, but we have definitely seen skill ceilings that by far have not been reached in 2013-2016. I mean, current players stand on the shoulders of giants. So sure, they might be better today, but the tournaments are nowhere as competitive as the past. I think it's common sense by now that progamers peak in the early 20s, and if someone crunched the numbers quickly, I'd say the current median age of the top players (e.g., the 16 or 18 here at EWC) would be close to 30. Meaning very few new players. Without new players, the game declines in competitiveness.
To me, the new players are giants in their own right... the stable meta simply was not meant for many players from the prime era.
How do we know that? Because there are many from that time still around getting great results, despite the new players that entered post 2016. It was further not impossible to stay in the game or to even pick it up like a later world champion has shown. You are right that the competitiveness changed, but as I said in my previous post: Wouldn't there have been so many more tournaments, many players names wouldn't even have been mentioned as often.
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On July 24 2025 16:01 johnnyh123 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2025 05:10 PremoBeats wrote:
What we have seen in recent years, may competitively - in terms of different players or new names - not been the best, but we have definitely seen skill ceilings that by far have not been reached in 2013-2016. I mean, current players stand on the shoulders of giants. So sure, they might be better today, but the tournaments are nowhere as competitive as the past. I think it's common sense by now that progamers peak in the early 20s, and if someone crunched the numbers quickly, I'd say the current median age of the top players (e.g., the 16 or 18 here at EWC) would be close to 30. Meaning very few new players. Without new players, the game declines in competitiveness.
I kinda disagree here. There was an interview with soO sometime after his 2nd four finals run or so, maybe a bit later, where he said the game is more competitive than ever, despite team houses disbanding and the players skill ceiling is also higher than ever. You can see that with your own eyes. Just watch a match from the past few years's finals or semifinals from the biggest tournaments and compare that to end of Hots which is the so called "most competitve era" by many. Let's just say after getting used to todays standard you will not be amazed how they played back then.
Seems like with age comes wisdom, just look at Classic. He is 33(edit) and just recently beated the 23 year old Clem in RSL twice, and now once in EWC after having like a 20 matches losing streak against him. An aged man doesn't necessarily mean an old man.
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Classic is 33... but with the rest I agree 
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On July 25 2025 15:42 PremoBeats wrote:Classic is 33... but with the rest I agree
I'm sorry. Damn chatgpt.
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United States33470 Posts
On July 25 2025 16:09 kajtarp wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2025 15:42 PremoBeats wrote:Classic is 33... but with the rest I agree I'm sorry. Damn chatgpt.
Dont use chatgpt for StarCraft; I was trying to see if it could make stat compiling easier the other day, and it kept telling me Taeja was a code s champ (among numerous other mistakes)
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On July 25 2025 17:41 Waxangel wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2025 16:09 kajtarp wrote:On July 25 2025 15:42 PremoBeats wrote:Classic is 33... but with the rest I agree I'm sorry. Damn chatgpt. Dont use chatgpt for StarCraft; I was trying to see if it could make stat compiling easier the other day, and it kept telling me Taeja was a code s champ (among numerous other mistakes)
Can confirm... you have to be extremely cautious when using it with SC2 data.
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I'm actually predicting zvz finals from this standing. It seems this year that T>Z>P>T, and with this Zerg gets stronger because now Protoss are able to take out the big Terran names helping the Zergs. By median outcome Solar might actually win, lol, Serral should beat Cure, Solar should beat Classic and then Solar vs Serral is pretty 50/50, but maybe if I had to chose I would pick Solar. I wouldn't predict Solar though, since Serral's chance of beating Cure should be higher than Solar beating Classic. Classic should demolish Cure in a 3rd place match.
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EPT
