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EWC Tier List

Forum Index > SC2 General
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NeWHoriZonS
Profile Joined April 2018
55 Posts
July 07 2024 20:51 GMT
#1
I'm sure someone will make a detailed and fully explained tier list before the event, but for now I figured we could have fun with our own versions
I made this template that you can use:
https://tiermaker.com/create/starcraft-2---ewc-2024-tier-list-16711448

Here is mine for example, ordered

[image loading]
Locutos
Profile Joined January 2017
Brazil271 Posts
July 07 2024 20:55 GMT
#2
I would bump up Cure one tier
Locutos
Profile Joined January 2017
Brazil271 Posts
July 07 2024 20:56 GMT
#3
I also would bump up Serral one tier. Serral is godlike level.

Maru is semi god level.

The rest is the rest.
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33479 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-07-07 21:22:49
July 07 2024 21:22 GMT
#4
Tier 0: Serral
Tier 1: Maru
Tier 1.5: herO, Dark
Tier 1.75: Cure, Clem, Reynor

AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
Balnazza
Profile Joined January 2018
Germany1237 Posts
July 07 2024 21:59 GMT
#5
I would definetly drop SHIN. Simply because he and ShowTime will have the toughest route. They are literally one Bo3 away from elimination right from the get-go
"Wenn die Zauberin runter geht, dann macht sie die Beine breit" - Khaldor, trying to cast WC3 German-only
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-07-08 00:04:21
July 07 2024 22:02 GMT
#6
It's weird because Maru has placed 1st or 2nd in every tournament this year, which has to make anyone a guarantee for S Tier, but Serral specifically has his number so it's hard to imagine him winning.

S Tier: Serral >>> Maru
A Tier: Dark, herO
B Tier: Clem, Reynor, Cure, Oliveria
C Tier: HeroMarine, Solar, SHIN, Gumiho

Reynor's results over the last year also aren't A-tier, but he has the sheer aura of "could win any tournament any time" about him. It feels wrong to not list him as a contender even if the numbers would say so
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
darklycid
Profile Joined May 2014
3515 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-07-08 00:04:25
July 07 2024 22:54 GMT
#7
On July 08 2024 07:02 Fango wrote:
It's weird because Maru has placed 1st or 2nd in every tournament this year, which has to make anyone a guarantee for S Tier, but Serral specifically has his number so it's hard to imagine him winning.

S Tier: Serral >>> Maru
A Tier: Dark, herO
B Tier: Clem, Reynor, Cure, Oliveria
C Tier: HeroMarine, Solar, SHIN, Gumiho

Reynor's results over the last year also aren't A-tier, but he has the sheer aura of "could win any tournament any time" about him. It feels wrong to not list him as a contender even if the numbers would say so

I think reynor is somewhat like rogue in this (or sOs when big Tournament).
THERIDDLER
Profile Joined July 2014
Canada126 Posts
July 07 2024 23:04 GMT
#8
S Tier: Scarlett, Lambo, Harstem, Mana, TLO
A Tier: The rest
Please don't fricken hack, its just a game.
CicadaSC
Profile Joined January 2018
United States1821 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-07-07 23:49:19
July 07 2024 23:29 GMT
#9
Tier 1 Serral and classic

Tier 2 Maru herO Dark ByuN

Tier 3 Reynor Solar Clem

Tier 4 everyone else

Classic and ByuN are going to have standout results this tournament, as in, doing better than everyone expects. Would anybody like to bet that the standings look like this after the tournament is over?
Remember that we all come from a place of passion!!
WickedCestus
Profile Joined December 2011
Canada25 Posts
July 07 2024 23:31 GMT
#10
I would definitely put Cure above Gumiho, Solar, ByuN and SHIN. I don't think he has a good shot to win, but a very high chance of reaching the Ro4. He's been incredibly consistent over the past year and there's a good reason why he's the solid #3 in the KR standings.
Vindicare605
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States16097 Posts
July 08 2024 00:40 GMT
#11
Shin's on a higher tier than Cure? That's ridiculous. Otherwise though not a bad tier list.
aka: KTVindicare the Geeky Bartender
dysenterymd
Profile Joined January 2019
1250 Posts
July 08 2024 00:54 GMT
#12
I have a feeling that one of Shin, Classic, or Gumiho will make a surprisingly deep run. All three can catch fire from time.

The biggest question mark for me is Oliveira, he looked amazing at Dallas but I'm not sure if he can maintain that level. If he can it will be a very exciting tournament.
Serral | Inno | sOs | soO | Has | Classic
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland26005 Posts
July 08 2024 01:49 GMT
#13
On July 08 2024 08:29 CicadaSC wrote:
Tier 1 Serral and classic

Tier 2 Maru herO Dark ByuN

Tier 3 Reynor Solar Clem

Tier 4 everyone else

Classic and ByuN are going to have standout results this tournament, as in, doing better than everyone expects. Would anybody like to bet that the standings look like this after the tournament is over?

I’m not sure to take that bet or have you institutionalised for putting Byun above Clem and Reynor and 2 tiers above Cure :p
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland26005 Posts
July 08 2024 01:57 GMT
#14
On July 08 2024 05:51 NeWHoriZonS wrote:
I'm sure someone will make a detailed and fully explained tier list before the event, but for now I figured we could have fun with our own versions
I made this template that you can use:
https://tiermaker.com/create/starcraft-2---ewc-2024-tier-list-16711448

Here is mine for example, ordered

[image loading]

That’s pretty bang on for me, I’d maybe drop Oliveira down a tier and promote Cure up a tier but pretty on the money
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
Blitzball04
Profile Joined June 2024
191 Posts
July 08 2024 03:35 GMT
#15
Maru a tier too high, I’ll bump reynor since he performs godlike in big tournament

Bumping my boy classic to tier A. He will be the true Protoss hope
Azzur
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia6260 Posts
July 08 2024 06:08 GMT
#16
Would make the following changes:
- Oliveira: Down 1 tier
- Shin: Down 1 tier
- Cure & Classic: Up 1 tier
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-07-08 09:11:22
July 08 2024 09:10 GMT
#17
[image loading]
In order within the tiers too, though I'd argue Reynor would have a better chance of winning the tournament than most other players in tier B when he's on. I view Dark, Clem, and Oliveira as the only ones that have a realistic shot at taking out Serral. However, Clem and Oliveira are much more likely than Dark to get knocked out by someone else.
Spirral
Profile Joined February 2021
74 Posts
July 08 2024 09:13 GMT
#18
Classic.
ejozl
Profile Joined October 2010
Denmark3453 Posts
July 08 2024 13:43 GMT
#19
Reynors mindset is trash. I would say: Finnish>Korea>Rest and Koreans will rly show up this event, this time there's real money on the line. Dark=Maru chances and Classic will have a great run. Serral will win ofc and probably face Dark in the finals.
Protoss will lose as soon as only Serral and Koreans exist in the bracket.
So actually:
T1:
Finnish
T2:
Korean non-Protoss
T3:
Korean Protoss
T4:
rest.
SC2 Archon needs "Terrible, terrible damage" as one of it's quotes.
Durnuu
Profile Joined September 2013
13322 Posts
July 08 2024 13:58 GMT
#20
> good chance to win
> protoss
You have to pick one
BUNNYYYYYYYYY https://i.imgur.com/BiCF577.png
Locutos
Profile Joined January 2017
Brazil271 Posts
July 08 2024 14:09 GMT
#21
On July 08 2024 18:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
[image loading]
In order within the tiers too, though I'd argue Reynor would have a better chance of winning the tournament than most other players in tier B when he's on. I view Dark, Clem, and Oliveira as the only ones that have a realistic shot at taking out Serral. However, Clem and Oliveira are much more likely than Dark to get knocked out by someone else.


That's a good one.

Dark way closer do Maru, than Maru is to Serral, as in chamionship's win chances...
Locutos
Profile Joined January 2017
Brazil271 Posts
July 08 2024 14:11 GMT
#22
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained
cookinrelaxin
Profile Joined June 2024
3 Posts
July 08 2024 14:52 GMT
#23
On July 08 2024 08:29 CicadaSC wrote:
Tier 1 Serral and classic

Tier 2 Maru herO Dark ByuN

Tier 3 Reynor Solar Clem

Tier 4 everyone else

Classic and ByuN are going to have standout results this tournament, as in, doing better than everyone expects. Would anybody like to bet that the standings look like this after the tournament is over?


I kind of get the take about Classic since he popped off at last year's Gamers8, but what makes you confident that ByuN will do better than the customary Ro8?
Poopi
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France12904 Posts
July 08 2024 14:57 GMT
#24
On July 08 2024 23:52 cookinrelaxin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2024 08:29 CicadaSC wrote:
Tier 1 Serral and classic

Tier 2 Maru herO Dark ByuN

Tier 3 Reynor Solar Clem

Tier 4 everyone else

Classic and ByuN are going to have standout results this tournament, as in, doing better than everyone expects. Would anybody like to bet that the standings look like this after the tournament is over?


I kind of get the take about Classic since he popped off at last year's Gamers8, but what makes you confident that ByuN will do better than the customary Ro8?

I think ByuN is a very dangerous opponent for anyone not named Serral, but otoh, given his wrist issues and/or peculiar style, it is highly unlikely for him to win the whole thing. For him to win it would require the stars to align like they did in Oliveira 2023 run imo.

As for Classic, for some reason he manages to overperform offline sometimes / doesn't seem as flashy online as herO, which makes everyone forget about him pretty quickly. The expectations aren't that high so it's likely he'll "overperform" with that many people sleeping on him
WriterMaru
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-07-08 15:14:42
July 08 2024 15:13 GMT
#25
Classic is a special case because I think he can pop off and win a bo7 against anyone. But I don't see him having 30+ builds to carry for the entire event.

The format of this tournament just makes it very difficult for a protoss like him to win. Double elim and a secondary knockout bracket means unless you cruise straight to the final four, you need a bottomless bag of builds.

A protoss like Stats who can play reactive, or herO who's scrappy enough to repeat builds, would have a better shot. Build-smiths aren't made for this kind of events, which is a shame because there's not much money in starleagues or teamleagues in comparison. The best result for Classic is to take out one of the big guys (Serral, Dark, Oliveira, Maru) and then lose to the next one.
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
Biedrik
Profile Blog Joined May 2014
United States94 Posts
July 08 2024 16:04 GMT
#26
On July 08 2024 18:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
[image loading]
In order within the tiers too, though I'd argue Reynor would have a better chance of winning the tournament than most other players in tier B when he's on. I view Dark, Clem, and Oliveira as the only ones that have a realistic shot at taking out Serral. However, Clem and Oliveira are much more likely than Dark to get knocked out by someone else.

I agree with this one. In any tournament without Serral I'd want Maru in S, but given their history it's hard to put them in the same tier.
M3t4PhYzX
Profile Joined March 2019
Poland4225 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-07-08 16:07:51
July 08 2024 16:07 GMT
#27
Serral or Maru or Clem (in that order of winning probability).

anything else would be a pretty huge upset, imo
odi profanum vulgus et arceo
Blitzball04
Profile Joined June 2024
191 Posts
July 08 2024 16:26 GMT
#28
On July 09 2024 01:07 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
Serral or Maru or Clem (in that order of winning probability).

anything else would be a pretty huge upset, imo


Only path for Clem to win is if he avoid tvt.

Clem can’t win a tvt against Koreans to save his life
NeWHoriZonS
Profile Joined April 2018
55 Posts
July 08 2024 16:27 GMT
#29
On July 08 2024 23:57 Poopi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2024 23:52 cookinrelaxin wrote:
On July 08 2024 08:29 CicadaSC wrote:
Tier 1 Serral and classic

Tier 2 Maru herO Dark ByuN

Tier 3 Reynor Solar Clem

Tier 4 everyone else

Classic and ByuN are going to have standout results this tournament, as in, doing better than everyone expects. Would anybody like to bet that the standings look like this after the tournament is over?


I kind of get the take about Classic since he popped off at last year's Gamers8, but what makes you confident that ByuN will do better than the customary Ro8?

I think ByuN is a very dangerous opponent for anyone not named Serral, but otoh, given his wrist issues and/or peculiar style, it is highly unlikely for him to win the whole thing. For him to win it would require the stars to align like they did in Oliveira 2023 run imo.

As for Classic, for some reason he manages to overperform offline sometimes / doesn't seem as flashy online as herO, which makes everyone forget about him pretty quickly. The expectations aren't that high so it's likely he'll "overperform" with that many people sleeping on him


Unless I missed it in GSL (I didn't watch everything) I feel like it's been a while since ByuN got wrist issues no?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-07-08 18:10:09
July 08 2024 18:07 GMT
#30
On July 09 2024 01:26 Blitzball04 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2024 01:07 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
Serral or Maru or Clem (in that order of winning probability).

anything else would be a pretty huge upset, imo


Only path for Clem to win is if he avoid tvt.

Clem can’t win a tvt against Koreans to save his life

Clem has shown he can do it, he beat Maru in a bo5 TvT at Gamers8 when it really mattered. It's just quite sporadic.

The main reason Clem and everyone else on B tier isn't A tier is because they can all lose to players at C and D tier. I don't expect Serral, Dark or Maru to drop a series to C&D tier players, whereas this is a very real possibility for those in the B tier. Their remarkable consistency against players at lower tiers is what makes their winning chances so much higher.
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland26005 Posts
July 08 2024 18:09 GMT
#31
On July 09 2024 00:13 Fango wrote:
Classic is a special case because I think he can pop off and win a bo7 against anyone. But I don't see him having 30+ builds to carry for the entire event.

The format of this tournament just makes it very difficult for a protoss like him to win. Double elim and a secondary knockout bracket means unless you cruise straight to the final four, you need a bottomless bag of builds.

A protoss like Stats who can play reactive, or herO who's scrappy enough to repeat builds, would have a better shot. Build-smiths aren't made for this kind of events, which is a shame because there's not much money in starleagues or teamleagues in comparison. The best result for Classic is to take out one of the big guys (Serral, Dark, Oliveira, Maru) and then lose to the next one.

Yeah this feels about right, I can definitely see Classic doing well, taking out a big boy or two (man a repeat of him beating someone as he memorably did Rogue would be hyped)

Winning the whole thing given both his strengths and style, and Protoss more generally is probably just that step too far given the format
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
Ciaus237
Profile Joined July 2015
South Africa286 Posts
July 08 2024 18:20 GMT
#32
On July 08 2024 18:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
[image loading]


Correct.
The time that we kill keeps us alive
thorn969
Profile Joined March 2019
5 Posts
July 08 2024 18:33 GMT
#33
[image loading]

I went like this, also sorted within tiers. I think at least one player from B tier will make final four. SHIN and ShoWTimE down-ranked because the format.
JJH777
Profile Joined January 2011
United States4414 Posts
July 08 2024 19:23 GMT
#34
On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained


There's no good evidence that Serral's military service is causing him not to be in 100% form after his Dallas run. How many hours per week does he even have military related duties? Clearly can't be anywhere near fulltime or there's no way he still would've been in that form for Dallas.
MJG
Profile Joined May 2018
United Kingdom1328 Posts
July 08 2024 19:42 GMT
#35
All the Protoss players should be in D tier.

No chance to win lmao.
puking up frothing vitriolic sarcastic spittle
Charoisaur
Profile Joined August 2014
Germany16008 Posts
July 08 2024 19:56 GMT
#36
On July 09 2024 04:23 JJH777 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained


There's no good evidence that Serral's military service is causing him not to be in 100% form after his Dallas run. How many hours per week does he even have military related duties? Clearly can't be anywhere near fulltime or there's no way he still would've been in that form for Dallas.

Yeah, Oliveira mentioned how he grinded practice games after practice games with Serral, he clearly still has a ton of time to practice
Many of the coolest moments in sc2 happen due to worker harassment
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland26005 Posts
July 08 2024 20:55 GMT
#37
On July 09 2024 03:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2024 01:26 Blitzball04 wrote:
On July 09 2024 01:07 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
Serral or Maru or Clem (in that order of winning probability).

anything else would be a pretty huge upset, imo


Only path for Clem to win is if he avoid tvt.

Clem can’t win a tvt against Koreans to save his life

Clem has shown he can do it, he beat Maru in a bo5 TvT at Gamers8 when it really mattered. It's just quite sporadic.

The main reason Clem and everyone else on B tier isn't A tier is because they can all lose to players at C and D tier. I don't expect Serral, Dark or Maru to drop a series to C&D tier players, whereas this is a very real possibility for those in the B tier. Their remarkable consistency against players at lower tiers is what makes their winning chances so much higher.

Yeah pretty much this, and why Serral and Maru are so remarkable in these times.

My tiers are roughly:
A - Highest ceiling, consistent
B - Highest ceiling, inconsistent or slightly lower ceiling but consistent

And so on and so forth.

As for Clem and TvT I feel the matchup is slightly less stable than it has been in the past, but broadly it’s still Maru is favoured versus everyone, Cure is favoured versus everyone not named Maru and the rest of the notable names are kinda 50/50 against each other.

So I don’t think it’s a huge Achilles heel for Clem, but he’d probably prefer other matchups. Like a slightly less potent Serral in that his ZvZ is merely very very good rather than borderline invincible at times like his others
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
njleslu2024
Profile Joined May 2024
57 Posts
July 08 2024 21:28 GMT
#38
On July 08 2024 08:29 CicadaSC wrote:
Tier 1 Serral and classic

Tier 2 Maru herO Dark ByuN

Tier 3 Reynor Solar Clem

Tier 4 everyone else

Classic and ByuN are going to have standout results this tournament, as in, doing better than everyone expects. Would anybody like to bet that the standings look like this after the tournament is over?

Tbh I like to see Protoss get a huge champion like EWC. But we know it’s very hard for classic to enter final.
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
July 08 2024 21:50 GMT
#39
On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained

Nah Serral was never a guy who needed to practice 16 hours a day. At Dallas and Katowice he looked as good as ever.

The fact he can still practice a little bit, but spend a lot of time thinking about the game, and then focus 100% on the few big events a year is not a hindrance at all.
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
arcane1129
Profile Joined January 2011
United States271 Posts
July 08 2024 21:51 GMT
#40
I'd probably have something along the lines of

S+, Serral
S, Maru, Dark, herO
A, Cure, Clem, Reynor
B+, Classic, Shin, Oliveira, Solar, Byun
B, Gumiho, Showtime, Heromarine
C, Spirit, Astrea, Coffee
Locutos
Profile Joined January 2017
Brazil271 Posts
July 08 2024 23:09 GMT
#41
On July 09 2024 06:50 Fango wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained

Nah Serral was never a guy who needed to practice 16 hours a day. At Dallas and Katowice he looked as good as ever.

The fact he can still practice a little bit, but spend a lot of time thinking about the game, and then focus 100% on the few big events a year is not a hindrance at all.


Im just preparing the terrain for excuse, in case he doesnt win.
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
July 08 2024 23:53 GMT
#42
i cant wait to see the drama in the serral and maru goat threads after this one
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland26005 Posts
July 09 2024 00:01 GMT
#43
On July 09 2024 08:09 Locutos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2024 06:50 Fango wrote:
On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained

Nah Serral was never a guy who needed to practice 16 hours a day. At Dallas and Katowice he looked as good as ever.

The fact he can still practice a little bit, but spend a lot of time thinking about the game, and then focus 100% on the few big events a year is not a hindrance at all.


Im just preparing the terrain for excuse, in case he doesnt win.

He’s for me the favourite, although I don’t think it’s overwhelming like Serral being over 50% chance versus the rest of the field. It’s more likely to me that anyone other than Serral wins versus him taking it home.

But he’s looked imperious this year, and I think double elimination, Bo7 semis etc definitely helps him out. He’s so resolutely consistent that longer series are an advantage for him, and he’s got an extra life if he has a bad one.

'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
radracer
Profile Joined March 2020
United States73 Posts
July 09 2024 07:17 GMT
#44
[image loading]
old
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany6992 Posts
July 09 2024 09:50 GMT
#45
On July 09 2024 08:53 Shellshock wrote:
i cant wait to see the drama in the serral and maru goat threads after this one


What drama? One is the goat, the other isn't :D
Go Serral! GG EZ for Ence. Flashbang dance FTW
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
July 09 2024 11:36 GMT
#46
On July 08 2024 18:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
[image loading]
In order within the tiers too, though I'd argue Reynor would have a better chance of winning the tournament than most other players in tier B when he's on. I view Dark, Clem, and Oliveira as the only ones that have a realistic shot at taking out Serral. However, Clem and Oliveira are much more likely than Dark to get knocked out by someone else.


This is great. Although I would move Cure and Byun down to C. I just really can't see either of them winning.
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany6992 Posts
July 09 2024 11:47 GMT
#47
Honestly, the chances that neither Serral /Maru/ Dark is winning is like 5% IMO
Go Serral! GG EZ for Ence. Flashbang dance FTW
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-07-09 12:18:49
July 09 2024 11:55 GMT
#48
On July 09 2024 20:36 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2024 18:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
[image loading]
In order within the tiers too, though I'd argue Reynor would have a better chance of winning the tournament than most other players in tier B when he's on. I view Dark, Clem, and Oliveira as the only ones that have a realistic shot at taking out Serral. However, Clem and Oliveira are much more likely than Dark to get knocked out by someone else.


This is great. Although I would move Cure and Byun down to C. I just really can't see either of them winning.

I could see an argument for that. Main reason they're still in B is I can see ByuN beating Dark, and Cure beating Maru. Neither is that likely but anyone in C/D I just can't see taking a series off anyone in A/S.

I also think Serral has about a 60% chance of winning. Dark 15%, Maru 12%, rest of the field (mainly looking at Clem, herO and Reynor) 13%.
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-07-09 17:20:33
July 09 2024 17:20 GMT
#49
I really think the double elim (or triple elim considering the knockout bracket?) format will make a big difference to who ends up winning.

Serral basically never loses in double elim. The more games he's able to play, the better his odds. For him to lose he needs to get sniped by someone like Clem/Oliveira/Classic/another zerg on fire. That doesn't happen often enough to lost in double/triple elim
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
radracer
Profile Joined March 2020
United States73 Posts
July 10 2024 03:02 GMT
#50
No particular ordering

S (Favorites): Maru/Serral
A (Good Chance): Dark/Hero
B (Wouldn't be surprised): Reynor/Clem/Gumi/Shin
C (Would surprise but not impossible):Oliveira/Byun/Cure/Solar/Classic
D (Zero chance): Heromarine/Astrea/Showtime/Spirit
old
Drahkn
Profile Joined June 2021
194 Posts
July 10 2024 04:15 GMT
#51
herO has a good chance to win? haha
Starcloud
Profile Joined September 2018
138 Posts
July 10 2024 11:43 GMT
#52
Okay, here is the official tier list

S (Favorites): Serral (If form = "2024" then chance = 85%, else..)

A (Good Chance): Maru (prolly only if Serral gets knocked out)

B (Wouldn't be surprised): Dark/Oliveira

C (Would surprise but not impossible): Reynor/Clem/Hero

D (Zero chance): Byun/Cure/Solar/Classic/Gumi/Shin/Heromarine/Astrea/Showtime/Spirit
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18112 Posts
July 10 2024 11:52 GMT
#53
On July 10 2024 20:43 Starcloud wrote:
Okay, here is the official tier list

S (Favorites): Serral (If form = "2024" then chance = 85%, else..)

A (Good Chance): Maru (prolly only if Serral gets knocked out)

B (Wouldn't be surprised): Dark/Oliveira

C (Would surprise but not impossible): Reynor/Clem/Hero

D (Zero chance): Byun/Cure/Solar/Classic/Gumi/Shin/Heromarine/Astrea/Showtime/Spirit

Yeah, something like this. Mabye split D into D (zero chance) and F (less than zero chance), with Astrea, Coffee, Showtime and Spirit demoted to F.
Bennito_bh
Profile Joined June 2022
15 Posts
July 10 2024 14:45 GMT
#54
On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained



Statistically, players competing in offline premiere tournaments while serving in the military have a 100% win rate in SC2, so I'd say Serral's got this one in the bag
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland26005 Posts
July 10 2024 17:07 GMT
#55
On July 10 2024 20:43 Starcloud wrote:
Okay, here is the official tier list

S (Favorites): Serral (If form = "2024" then chance = 85%, else..)

A (Good Chance): Maru (prolly only if Serral gets knocked out)

B (Wouldn't be surprised): Dark/Oliveira

C (Would surprise but not impossible): Reynor/Clem/Hero

D (Zero chance): Byun/Cure/Solar/Classic/Gumi/Shin/Heromarine/Astrea/Showtime/Spirit

Cure made the final of the last one of these, and a Ro4 in Kato, and in GSLs has gone deep too.

He’s made more Ro4s+ in the last year in Premier tournies than Oliveira has ever made

If we’re weighting very heavily on recent form, Cure’s got some decent form too, feels they should be on the same tier. If the argument is that Oliveira’s shown the cohones to win a big WC-tier event in the past, well Reynor has a couple in his locker even if he’s slumped in recent times:
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
mintyminmus
Profile Joined September 2022
Australia127 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-07-10 23:12:24
July 10 2024 23:12 GMT
#56
I think Maru has a pretty low chance to win, but a high chance to finish runner-up
xyfan
Blitzball04
Profile Joined June 2024
191 Posts
July 11 2024 01:06 GMT
#57
On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained


Serral gotta give himself a handicap to make this tournament somewhat a challenge for him
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