2024 GSL Code S Season 1

RO16 Group D Preview: Solar, Ryung, Cure, herO

Thursday, Mar 21 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Mizenhauer

After three groups that have run the gamut from utterly predictable to a bonanza of upsets, it's time to wrap up the RO16 with Group D. Reigning champion Solar has ended up with a tough group draw, and we may see one last upset before the RO16 is done.



But before we get to Solar, let's start with the initial pairing I find to be a little more interesting. The second match of the day will feature a battle between the best Korean Protoss of the past few years, herO, and the always reliable, always dangerous (especially in TvP) Cure.

Since winning Code S back in 2021, Cure has assumed the mantle of biggest modern Kong. He is 0-4 in finals since, losing to Maru (DH Masters Last Chance 2022 and Code S Season 1 2022), Serral (Master's Coliseum 6), and Reynor (Gamers8). While losing four finals in a row is surely a sore point for Cure, for the sake of an RO16 preview, that's a big mark of his quality. The finals is just one match of many that make up a tournament, and just reaching four finals in a little over three years is no mean task. Even though Cure's difficulties against the absolute best players in the world looms over him, you'd still have to consider him at worst a top three Terran in the world (jostling with Clem for the #2 spot).

Unsurprisingly, Cure has remained in solid form since his RO4 finish at IEM Katowice 2024 (where he lost 0-3 to Maru in the semifinals). He isn't exactly dominating online competition like he did in his 2020-2021 ESL Open Cups heyday, but he's been more than respectable with a 20-9 match record (54-33 in maps). Two of those match wins are quite relevant to this group, as he beat both Solar and Ryung in the first leg of the StarsWar 11 Korean qualifier.

As for herO, he's ironically assumed the mantle of the biggest modern Cure. There was once a period during 2020-2021 when Cure was destroying everyone in online competitions but simply could not convert that into equivalent offline success—it's been the same story for herO for nearly a year now. Despite thrashing Code S players regularly in various online cups, herO's Code S results in 2023 were a hugely disappointing RO16-RO8-RO16, and his most recent offline outing at IEM Katowice 2024 ended in a middling RO12 finish (albeit, losing to a TvP monster in Cure).

Thus, it's no surprise that since IEM Katowice, herO has continued to look like a world-beater in online competitions. He's a ridiculous 41-7 in matches (94-34) map score, and his 'weak' match-up of TvP is still 11-5 (all the losses coming to Code S caliber players like ByuN, Cure, and GuMiho). Even in a difficult group such as this one, the online version of herO would be a favorite to advance. Aligulac actually gives him a 80% chance to move on to the RO8, which is quite the number considering that this is probably the hardest RO16 group of the season. However, herO's inexplicable offline jinx could make those numbers totally meaningless.

Looping back to the #1 seed of the group, Solar would be justified in being a little ticked off about how this group came together. Perhaps it was karma for taking teammate Vitality/ONSYDE Ryung with his first pick, but he's been thrust into a very dangerous group where there's a real chance of RO16 elimination. He wouldn't be the first reigning Code S champion to immediately get eliminated in the following tournament, but it would be an embarrassing moment nonetheless.

Solar enjoyed a career year in 2023 where he won Code S Season 3 and placed top four at Gamers8, but it's hard to say for sure if he's fundamentally reached another level as a player. Arguably, he always had the talent in him to achieve such heights, but he just lacked the clutch factor needed to push through the final few rounds of a tournament. His recent RO12 loss to Clem at IEM Katowice 2024 could be seen as both vindication and an indictment. He went the distance with the best TvZ player in the world while showing championship-caliber level play along the way, but in the end, the RO12 is just the RO12. Still, if there ever was a time to get on the Solar bandwagon, this is it. A single Code S win has been a career changer for players in the past, and there's plenty of upside for Solar if he can play his best StarCraft II on a regular basis.

With three championship-caliber players in the group, that leaves little hope for underdog player Ryung. While Stats did shock the StarCraft II community earlier this month with a surprise first place finish in Group B, it's hard to imagine lightning striking twice in the same tournament. The two other #4 seed players in soO and NightMare both failed to make the cut, and both had easier theoretical paths than Ryung. soO and NightMare both managed to take advantage of mirror match-ups to take third place in their groups, and that feels like the ceiling for Ryung as well. His strong TvT gives him a realistic chance of taking down Cure, but he'll be a huge underdog against both herO and Solar.

There's definitely a peculiar "big match" quality to this post-military version of Ryung, who's clutched out ties and wins against far stronger opponents in the WTL, and once made a completely unexpected RO12 run at IEM Katowice 2022. However, this old soldier magic has always fizzled in GSL Code S, and his best post-military result is a single RO10 finish back in 2022. Unless the StarCraft II gods are inclined to punish Solar for the once-taboo choice of picking his teammate in the group selections, it's hard to see a way for Ryung to make it out of this group.

Predictions

My perception of Solar is still unfavorably colored by so many disappointing seasons of Fantasy Proleague, but at least in this season of Code S, I feel relatively safe picking him to advance—having the easy initial match against Ryung is a huge advantage for him in this top-heavy group. As for the second place spot, I'm going to pick the minor upset (at least according to Aligulac) and say Cure comes through in second place. Even though herO has been racking up more TvP wins online, I think their clash at IEM Katowice is more reflective of who will prevail in a match with higher stakes.

Solar 2 - 0 Ryung
herO 2 - 1 Cure
Solar 2 - 1 herO
Cure 2 - 0 Ryung
Cure 2 - 1 herO

Solar and Cure to advance.

---