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Code S RO10 to be played partially online due to COVID inf…

Forum Index > SC2 General
41 CommentsPost a Reply
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Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33479 Posts
July 08 2022 12:04 GMT
#1
Source: AfreecaTV YouTube post

"Unfortunately, Maru and DRG who are in Group A of GSL RO.10 have been diagosed the Covid-19.

They are scheduled for the GSL RO.10 Week 2 on July 11th (Mon)
Because of the Covid-19 situation, Maru and DRG will compete online.

The GSL will broadcast with a 3-minute delay on match day to prevent cheating.
For a 3-minute delay broadcast, it will be temporarily conducted without an audience on July 11th

We would like to apologize to everyone who plan to visit the FreecUP Studio on Monday, July 11th

But please keep in the eye! The live-streaming start time is the same as usual!
Stay tuned next week for our match GSL RO.10 Week 2 Group A on July 11th at 18:30 (KST)!"
Facebook Twitter Reddit
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
Charoisaur
Profile Joined August 2014
Germany16008 Posts
July 08 2022 12:11 GMT
#2
And ESL planned to disqualify players that catched Covid, quite surprising that GSL is more lenient on that than ESL.
Many of the coolest moments in sc2 happen due to worker harassment
tigera6
Profile Joined March 2021
3433 Posts
July 08 2022 13:11 GMT
#3
On July 08 2022 21:11 Charoisaur wrote:
And ESL planned to disqualify players that catched Covid, quite surprising that GSL is more lenient on that than ESL.

To be fair, they are in KR, so the ping is much less of a problem comparing to international tournament. Also, its only half a of group stage so its much less proportionate to the whole tournament, and GSL got an advantage when it comes to that with the longer schedule. But I am still glad we get to see the organizer do their best to ensure that players participation are essential to the tournament, rather than forfeiting them straightup.
Btw, I think that means Bunny would still able to play, assuming he can get back to KR in time from EU.
Moonerz
Profile Joined March 2014
United States457 Posts
July 08 2022 13:23 GMT
#4
GSL wants the g5l as bad as we do and didnt want to dq maru

Good to see them being flexible and like tiger said ping isnt really an issue anyhow.
ReZero
Profile Joined April 2019
United Kingdom29 Posts
July 08 2022 13:40 GMT
#5
Not sure if we should consider restarting online games?
TossHeroes
Profile Joined February 2022
281 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-07-08 14:02:23
July 08 2022 14:01 GMT
#6
Desperate for that G5L to give to Maru

Fortunately it’s going to be our boy Rogue next season
keaneu
Profile Joined February 2011
Korea (South)65 Posts
July 08 2022 14:23 GMT
#7
It is feasible where ping is not an issue. Bunny's situation is quite different here so fingers crossed.
Director, TitanEX1 Co., Ltd.
JJH777
Profile Joined January 2011
United States4414 Posts
July 08 2022 14:34 GMT
#8
On July 08 2022 22:11 tigera6 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2022 21:11 Charoisaur wrote:
And ESL planned to disqualify players that catched Covid, quite surprising that GSL is more lenient on that than ESL.

To be fair, they are in KR, so the ping is much less of a problem comparing to international tournament. Also, its only half a of group stage so its much less proportionate to the whole tournament, and GSL got an advantage when it comes to that with the longer schedule. But I am still glad we get to see the organizer do their best to ensure that players participation are essential to the tournament, rather than forfeiting them straightup.
Btw, I think that means Bunny would still able to play, assuming he can get back to KR in time from EU.


ESL planned to ban them even if they were already in the country and could play from the hotel with no ping. Thankfully it didn't happen (probably due to a lack of testing enforcement, I highly doubt no one at Katowice got COVID) but that was the plan.
argonautdice
Profile Joined January 2013
Canada2719 Posts
July 08 2022 14:50 GMT
#9
Did they get COVID in Valencia? I wonder how the other Dreamhack participants are faring?
very illegal and very uncool
[PkF] Wire
Profile Joined March 2013
France24233 Posts
July 08 2022 15:06 GMT
#10
I'm glad they didn't DQ them.
lechatnoir
Profile Joined November 2016
390 Posts
July 08 2022 15:16 GMT
#11
Seems quite a bit of the old C going around after Valencia (or the travel thereto). Fingers crossed that everyone gets through it ok.
miau
Profile Joined July 2022
18 Posts
July 08 2022 15:26 GMT
#12
bunny was stuck in valencia because he had covid, they got it from him probably
TheOneAboveU
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Germany3367 Posts
July 08 2022 15:29 GMT
#13
Dark was the only person I saw who always had a mask on, everyone else seemed very lax regarding protection.
Speedy recovery to those affected!
Moderatoralias TripleM | @TL_TripleM | Big Dark Energy!
Nakajin
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
Canada8989 Posts
July 08 2022 15:45 GMT
#14
Glad they will be able to partake in the competition anyway
Writerhttp://i.imgur.com/9p6ufcB.jpg
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20319 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-07-09 06:20:18
July 09 2022 05:54 GMT
#15
On July 08 2022 23:50 argonautdice wrote:
Did they get COVID in Valencia? I wonder how the other Dreamhack participants are faring?


Dunno what the rates are over there but in the UK, about 4.5% of the total population are currently testing positive on PCR via surveilence studies.

Best estimates that we have for daily infections are in the 300k/day range (~1 in 200 new people per day) but only about 8% of those meet the government criteria to be allowed to report a positive test and the % of people who promptly know that they're infectious is probably extremely small. It's legal for employers to insist that people with infectious COVID-19 come into work, even when they're working in a service or healthcare industry at times so some place like the Valencia venue would be 100% fair game.

I've heard some other EU countries are doing better than the UK on this front but surveilence and safety testing before close contact as well as basic precautions like masks and ventilation doesn't sound great anywhere.
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
AxiomB
Profile Joined August 2016
69 Posts
July 09 2022 10:44 GMT
#16
Im 2 weeks out from testing positive covid, shizz can really knock you around, hopefully by the time gsl fires up again, our beloved players will be feeling a bit better. Love and care for all.
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland25995 Posts
July 09 2022 11:11 GMT
#17
A sensible compromise. Is Bunny stilled in exile in Valencia or does he have a shot at making it back for his games?
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
tskarzyn
Profile Joined July 2010
United States516 Posts
July 09 2022 13:22 GMT
#18
The never-ending testing regimen is anything but sensible, but I'm glad Maru and DRG can participate.
scTrigger1
Profile Joined July 2022
1 Post
July 09 2022 16:04 GMT
#19
I traveled to Seoul from Australia to watch the GSL this week. I’m shattered there is no audience, is there any bars or venues in Seoul which show the GSL so I can watch it with people? This is the most horrible news as I’ve has this trip planned for months and was so close to seeing maru play in person.
pzlama333
Profile Joined April 2013
United States281 Posts
July 09 2022 17:49 GMT
#20
I hear that there are more people were caught by Covid as well, not just Maru, but everyone of NV except creator, also Byun, Lambo, Scarlett, Mana, Heromarine, Kelazhur, PiG, and probably more. Some WTL matches were delayed due to this reason as well. I hope they all have a quick recovery.
swarminfestor
Profile Joined September 2017
Malaysia2449 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-07-09 20:32:21
July 09 2022 20:31 GMT
#21
On July 08 2022 23:01 TossHeroes wrote:
Desperate for that G5L to give to Maru

Fortunately it’s going to be our boy Rogue next season


It might be herO for his first GSL title or Dark again. I put Maru in the third list of contenders.

Rogue & Maru fan boy. ^^
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
834 Posts
July 09 2022 22:27 GMT
#22
On July 10 2022 05:31 swarminfestor wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2022 23:01 TossHeroes wrote:
Desperate for that G5L to give to Maru

Fortunately it’s going to be our boy Rogue next season


It might be herO for his first GSL title or Dark again. I put Maru in the third list of contenders.


I don't know. Maru has been pretty strong vs herO and I think they're pretty even vs Dark. And that's been with shorter prep time series; the slower GSL format will help Maru further.
argonautdice
Profile Joined January 2013
Canada2719 Posts
July 09 2022 23:38 GMT
#23
On July 10 2022 02:49 pzlama333 wrote:
I hear that there are more people were caught by Covid as well, not just Maru, but everyone of NV except creator, also Byun, Lambo, Scarlett, Mana, Heromarine, Kelazhur, PiG, and probably more. Some WTL matches were delayed due to this reason as well. I hope they all have a quick recovery.

Yeah I'm learning that a ton of the NA players caught covid at Valencia.
very illegal and very uncool
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20319 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-07-10 03:28:56
July 10 2022 03:27 GMT
#24
On July 09 2022 22:22 tskarzyn wrote:
The never-ending testing regimen is anything but sensible, but I'm glad Maru and DRG can participate.


What are you proposing as a more sensible option? With a dangeorus and so highly infectious (airborne) disease going around, testing to confirm if sick people have it or not and then not having large indoor gatherings with those people if they do is the most basic of precautions.

A couple of people are playing their games online, it's not that big a deal. Sorry ofc for the dude who flew out to Korea to see it in person, though.
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
Blargh
Profile Joined September 2010
United States2103 Posts
July 10 2022 06:15 GMT
#25
On July 09 2022 22:22 tskarzyn wrote:
The never-ending testing regimen is anything but sensible, but I'm glad Maru and DRG can participate.

???
I see very little relevance here. Do you think they should just never test, even when they're clearly sick, and then just go and infect everyone? Is this like, out of sight, out of mind? Ignorance is bliss? For all you know, they tested themselves (as most people do now with rapid tests).

But I do think given everything, this is the way to go. I think tournaments should do as much as they can to limit the burden on players due to the whole COVID situation. For pro-gamers, being blocked from the tournaments due to COVID is basically the equivalent of not getting sick leave from your job...
tskarzyn
Profile Joined July 2010
United States516 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-07-10 14:58:03
July 10 2022 14:55 GMT
#26
On July 10 2022 15:15 Blargh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2022 22:22 tskarzyn wrote:
The never-ending testing regimen is anything but sensible, but I'm glad Maru and DRG can participate.

???
I see very little relevance here. Do you think they should just never test, even when they're clearly sick, and then just go and infect everyone? Is this like, out of sight, out of mind? Ignorance is bliss? For all you know, they tested themselves (as most people do now with rapid tests).

But I do think given everything, this is the way to go. I think tournaments should do as much as they can to limit the burden on players due to the whole COVID situation. For pro-gamers, being blocked from the tournaments due to COVID is basically the equivalent of not getting sick leave from your job...


Correct, I don't think testing is appropriate unless a lack of testing poses a direct risk to a high-risk population. (e.g. nursing home or hospital)

Anyone Maru exposes at a tournament has had 1.5 years to get vaccinated and bring their risk level down to nearly 0. If they are a recovering chemo patient, 83 years old, or simply a neurotic hypochondriac, why are they exposing themselves to all of the risks a crowded tournament hall brings? Onus is on them to calibrate their lifestyle to their risk tolerance, not on everyone else to self quarantine in perpetuity every time they catch what is essentially a seasonal flu at this point.

P.S. As a PSA, false positive rate on antigen tests is 50%, so don't cancel plans to see grandma unless you confirm with a PCR test. Many people do not know this and self-isolate for no reason.

User was temp banned for this post.
Blargh
Profile Joined September 2010
United States2103 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-07-11 01:04:00
July 11 2022 00:48 GMT
#27
On July 10 2022 23:55 tskarzyn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 10 2022 15:15 Blargh wrote:
On July 09 2022 22:22 tskarzyn wrote:
The never-ending testing regimen is anything but sensible, but I'm glad Maru and DRG can participate.

???
I see very little relevance here. Do you think they should just never test, even when they're clearly sick, and then just go and infect everyone? Is this like, out of sight, out of mind? Ignorance is bliss? For all you know, they tested themselves (as most people do now with rapid tests).

But I do think given everything, this is the way to go. I think tournaments should do as much as they can to limit the burden on players due to the whole COVID situation. For pro-gamers, being blocked from the tournaments due to COVID is basically the equivalent of not getting sick leave from your job...


Correct, I don't think testing is appropriate unless a lack of testing poses a direct risk to a high-risk population. (e.g. nursing home or hospital)

Anyone Maru exposes at a tournament has had 1.5 years to get vaccinated and bring their risk level down to nearly 0. If they are a recovering chemo patient, 83 years old, or simply a neurotic hypochondriac, why are they exposing themselves to all of the risks a crowded tournament hall brings? Onus is on them to calibrate their lifestyle to their risk tolerance, not on everyone else to self quarantine in perpetuity every time they catch what is essentially a seasonal flu at this point.

P.S. As a PSA, false positive rate on antigen tests is 50%, so don't cancel plans to see grandma unless you confirm with a PCR test. Many people do not know this and self-isolate for no reason.

I'm sorry, but the vaccine isn't that strong any more. In fact, the vast majority of people who are testing positive now are of course vaccinated. I work in a place with mandatory vaccines AND boosting, and roughly 50% of the building has tested positive in the last 3 months. This is ontop of wearing masks and everything too. It's not "nearly 0". This is because the vaccines now only offer roughly 4-6 months of immunity against the current variants. Prior infection offers almost zero protection against BA.5 variant. Along with this, current COVID cases are actually substantially higher than reported, almost as many as our peak omicron wave. The death rate may not be nearly as high as it was, but if the flu were as bad and as contagious as COVID, we'd be doing the same thing for that. Also, please don't go out when you have the flu either.

Just testing when you feel sick is a completely normal and reasonable thing to do. I don't know why you think it isn't. It allows us to continue events like these with minimal investment. If you are sick, you should absolutely test, why would you ever think otherwise? You can't call it a seasonal flu when it's as contagious as measles and also, uh, not seasonal.

And no that "PSA" is absolutely not true. The rapid tests have never had high false positives. It makes very little biological sense for them to. These antigens are quite specific and don't react to anything outside of the virus. The biggest reporting of false positives was due to a bad batch of rapid tests, while the overall false positivity rate being a fraction of a percent (~0.05%). However, the rapid tests do have high false negatives now (due in part to the virus no longer being as abundant in the upper resp tract and the variants decreasing the binding to the antigen). I would recommend all people who would like to test to also include a throat swab in with their nasal swab for the test.
tskarzyn
Profile Joined July 2010
United States516 Posts
July 11 2022 02:24 GMT
#28
On July 11 2022 09:48 Blargh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 10 2022 23:55 tskarzyn wrote:
On July 10 2022 15:15 Blargh wrote:
On July 09 2022 22:22 tskarzyn wrote:
The never-ending testing regimen is anything but sensible, but I'm glad Maru and DRG can participate.

???
I see very little relevance here. Do you think they should just never test, even when they're clearly sick, and then just go and infect everyone? Is this like, out of sight, out of mind? Ignorance is bliss? For all you know, they tested themselves (as most people do now with rapid tests).

But I do think given everything, this is the way to go. I think tournaments should do as much as they can to limit the burden on players due to the whole COVID situation. For pro-gamers, being blocked from the tournaments due to COVID is basically the equivalent of not getting sick leave from your job...


Correct, I don't think testing is appropriate unless a lack of testing poses a direct risk to a high-risk population. (e.g. nursing home or hospital)

Anyone Maru exposes at a tournament has had 1.5 years to get vaccinated and bring their risk level down to nearly 0. If they are a recovering chemo patient, 83 years old, or simply a neurotic hypochondriac, why are they exposing themselves to all of the risks a crowded tournament hall brings? Onus is on them to calibrate their lifestyle to their risk tolerance, not on everyone else to self quarantine in perpetuity every time they catch what is essentially a seasonal flu at this point.

P.S. As a PSA, false positive rate on antigen tests is 50%, so don't cancel plans to see grandma unless you confirm with a PCR test. Many people do not know this and self-isolate for no reason.

I'm sorry, but the vaccine isn't that strong any more. In fact, the vast majority of people who are testing positive now are of course vaccinated. I work in a place with mandatory vaccines AND boosting, and roughly 50% of the building has tested positive in the last 3 months. This is ontop of wearing masks and everything too. It's not "nearly 0". This is because the vaccines now only offer roughly 4-6 months of immunity against the current variants. Prior infection offers almost zero protection against BA.5 variant. Along with this, current COVID cases are actually substantially higher than reported, almost as many as our peak omicron wave. The death rate may not be nearly as high as it was, but if the flu were as bad and as contagious as COVID, we'd be doing the same thing for that. Also, please don't go out when you have the flu either.

Just testing when you feel sick is a completely normal and reasonable thing to do. I don't know why you think it isn't. It allows us to continue events like these with minimal investment. If you are sick, you should absolutely test, why would you ever think otherwise? You can't call it a seasonal flu when it's as contagious as measles and also, uh, not seasonal.

And no that "PSA" is absolutely not true. The rapid tests have never had high false positives. It makes very little biological sense for them to. These antigens are quite specific and don't react to anything outside of the virus. The biggest reporting of false positives was due to a bad batch of rapid tests, while the overall false positivity rate being a fraction of a percent (~0.05%). However, the rapid tests do have high false negatives now (due in part to the virus no longer being as abundant in the upper resp tract and the variants decreasing the binding to the antigen). I would recommend all people who would like to test to also include a throat swab in with their nasal swab for the test.


Apologies, 50% false positive was not precise enough. This study estimated a false positive rate of ~47% for antigen tests.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8372488/#:~:text=1 (a and b).,-positive rate was 46.28%.

As to protection from the vaccines waning, adverse effects are minimal and deaths are concentrated in people who are already dying from other causes. And yes, the vaccines do not prevent infection, which is why we all need to accept that everyone is going to get this eventually. Look at the hospitalization numbers. It's elderly folks, the morbidly obese, and hypochondriacs. (Anxiety is the one of the highest predictors of whether someone will be hospitalized from COVID.)
tigera6
Profile Joined March 2021
3433 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-07-11 06:41:26
July 11 2022 06:31 GMT
#29
What I am drawing from this, and just my view, is now KRs players might be less inclined to play in offline events where they have to make long trip and be at risk to get Covid, especially during GSL season. These offline tournament (DH, HSC, TSL) are CLEARLY organized around the non-KR players (EU/NA) schedule so even if they get contracted with Covid, they can still take time off and rest before the DH seasons start. But KR players have more to lose, like not being at 100% health, or even get stuck from coming back to KR, and losing prize money from their current GSL tournament. It might just not be worth it for them to do it if this trend continues.
Slydie
Profile Joined August 2013
1927 Posts
July 11 2022 07:29 GMT
#30
I really wish the whole world were over this by now and started treating this like any other infection, but at least E-sports can be done reasonably well online, so it could be worse.
Buff the siegetank
mark_lenders
Profile Joined July 2019
74 Posts
July 11 2022 07:48 GMT
#31
On July 11 2022 15:31 tigera6 wrote:
What I am drawing from this, and just my view, is now KRs players might be less inclined to play in offline events where they have to make long trip and be at risk to get Covid, especially during GSL season. These offline tournament (DH, HSC, TSL) are CLEARLY organized around the non-KR players (EU/NA) schedule so even if they get contracted with Covid, they can still take time off and rest before the DH seasons start. But KR players have more to lose, like not being at 100% health, or even get stuck from coming back to KR, and losing prize money from their current GSL tournament. It might just not be worth it for them to do it if this trend continues.


maybe we'll see top players staying in KR and lower level/already eliminated from GSL players more willing to travel
Blargh
Profile Joined September 2010
United States2103 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-07-11 10:09:28
July 11 2022 10:06 GMT
#32
On July 11 2022 11:24 tskarzyn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 11 2022 09:48 Blargh wrote:
On July 10 2022 23:55 tskarzyn wrote:
On July 10 2022 15:15 Blargh wrote:
On July 09 2022 22:22 tskarzyn wrote:
The never-ending testing regimen is anything but sensible, but I'm glad Maru and DRG can participate.

???
I see very little relevance here. Do you think they should just never test, even when they're clearly sick, and then just go and infect everyone? Is this like, out of sight, out of mind? Ignorance is bliss? For all you know, they tested themselves (as most people do now with rapid tests).

But I do think given everything, this is the way to go. I think tournaments should do as much as they can to limit the burden on players due to the whole COVID situation. For pro-gamers, being blocked from the tournaments due to COVID is basically the equivalent of not getting sick leave from your job...


Correct, I don't think testing is appropriate unless a lack of testing poses a direct risk to a high-risk population. (e.g. nursing home or hospital)

Anyone Maru exposes at a tournament has had 1.5 years to get vaccinated and bring their risk level down to nearly 0. If they are a recovering chemo patient, 83 years old, or simply a neurotic hypochondriac, why are they exposing themselves to all of the risks a crowded tournament hall brings? Onus is on them to calibrate their lifestyle to their risk tolerance, not on everyone else to self quarantine in perpetuity every time they catch what is essentially a seasonal flu at this point.

P.S. As a PSA, false positive rate on antigen tests is 50%, so don't cancel plans to see grandma unless you confirm with a PCR test. Many people do not know this and self-isolate for no reason.

I'm sorry, but the vaccine isn't that strong any more. In fact, the vast majority of people who are testing positive now are of course vaccinated. I work in a place with mandatory vaccines AND boosting, and roughly 50% of the building has tested positive in the last 3 months. This is ontop of wearing masks and everything too. It's not "nearly 0". This is because the vaccines now only offer roughly 4-6 months of immunity against the current variants. Prior infection offers almost zero protection against BA.5 variant. Along with this, current COVID cases are actually substantially higher than reported, almost as many as our peak omicron wave. The death rate may not be nearly as high as it was, but if the flu were as bad and as contagious as COVID, we'd be doing the same thing for that. Also, please don't go out when you have the flu either.

Just testing when you feel sick is a completely normal and reasonable thing to do. I don't know why you think it isn't. It allows us to continue events like these with minimal investment. If you are sick, you should absolutely test, why would you ever think otherwise? You can't call it a seasonal flu when it's as contagious as measles and also, uh, not seasonal.

And no that "PSA" is absolutely not true. The rapid tests have never had high false positives. It makes very little biological sense for them to. These antigens are quite specific and don't react to anything outside of the virus. The biggest reporting of false positives was due to a bad batch of rapid tests, while the overall false positivity rate being a fraction of a percent (~0.05%). However, the rapid tests do have high false negatives now (due in part to the virus no longer being as abundant in the upper resp tract and the variants decreasing the binding to the antigen). I would recommend all people who would like to test to also include a throat swab in with their nasal swab for the test.


Apologies, 50% false positive was not precise enough. This study estimated a false positive rate of ~47% for antigen tests.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8372488/#:~:text=1 (a and b).,-positive rate was 46.28%.

As to protection from the vaccines waning, adverse effects are minimal and deaths are concentrated in people who are already dying from other causes. And yes, the vaccines do not prevent infection, which is why we all need to accept that everyone is going to get this eventually. Look at the hospitalization numbers. It's elderly folks, the morbidly obese, and hypochondriacs. (Anxiety is the one of the highest predictors of whether someone will be hospitalized from COVID.)

I don't care to argue about it further than this post, but it's important to understand some key concepts here.

First... When you say "false positives are 50%", that's 50% of all that tested positives are actually negative. That is NOT 50% of people who were actually negative tested positive.

Second, if hypothetically, you were testing a population of 1,000,000 people that did NOT have COVID, every positive would be a false positive. So the lower the number of cases, the more false positives (relatively). Fortunately, we have an abundance of cases currently, so this is really not an issue. Note, cases are roughly 10x higher than reported, possibly more due to the lack of PCR testing nowadays.

Next... it's not guaranteed that these are even false positives. There's no perfect way to determine true positivity, so you can never know with certainty whether you were actually positive. PCR, the "gold standard", has some amount of error as well. Since these rates are always measured by (# of positives by rapid test / # of positives by PCR), if the (# of positives by PCR) has error (which it does), then this number will always be always be inaccurate by at least that same level of error. Some of that error comes down to it just being done by a person (human error), while other error comes from biological reasons, such as delays between testing and infection. Then another bit of error comes down to the specific test, as some rapid tests are less precise / worse. Though most of the popular ones now are quite good.

Third... Based on data from Omicron onward, I can tell you that the precision of rapid tests (true positive / true and false positives) is closer to 90%, likely more. The vast vast majority of people who test positive right now by rapid test are in fact positive.

Tl;dr is that rapid testing is good, people should do it if they feel sick, and no, no one should go out in public if they are sick with a highly contagious virus (higher than measles) that has notable long-term health consequences.

Source: I study infectious diseases and work with COVID labs....
tskarzyn
Profile Joined July 2010
United States516 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-07-11 12:55:54
July 11 2022 12:54 GMT
#33
On July 11 2022 19:06 Blargh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 11 2022 11:24 tskarzyn wrote:
On July 11 2022 09:48 Blargh wrote:
On July 10 2022 23:55 tskarzyn wrote:
On July 10 2022 15:15 Blargh wrote:
On July 09 2022 22:22 tskarzyn wrote:
The never-ending testing regimen is anything but sensible, but I'm glad Maru and DRG can participate.

???
I see very little relevance here. Do you think they should just never test, even when they're clearly sick, and then just go and infect everyone? Is this like, out of sight, out of mind? Ignorance is bliss? For all you know, they tested themselves (as most people do now with rapid tests).

But I do think given everything, this is the way to go. I think tournaments should do as much as they can to limit the burden on players due to the whole COVID situation. For pro-gamers, being blocked from the tournaments due to COVID is basically the equivalent of not getting sick leave from your job...


Correct, I don't think testing is appropriate unless a lack of testing poses a direct risk to a high-risk population. (e.g. nursing home or hospital)

Anyone Maru exposes at a tournament has had 1.5 years to get vaccinated and bring their risk level down to nearly 0. If they are a recovering chemo patient, 83 years old, or simply a neurotic hypochondriac, why are they exposing themselves to all of the risks a crowded tournament hall brings? Onus is on them to calibrate their lifestyle to their risk tolerance, not on everyone else to self quarantine in perpetuity every time they catch what is essentially a seasonal flu at this point.

P.S. As a PSA, false positive rate on antigen tests is 50%, so don't cancel plans to see grandma unless you confirm with a PCR test. Many people do not know this and self-isolate for no reason.

I'm sorry, but the vaccine isn't that strong any more. In fact, the vast majority of people who are testing positive now are of course vaccinated. I work in a place with mandatory vaccines AND boosting, and roughly 50% of the building has tested positive in the last 3 months. This is ontop of wearing masks and everything too. It's not "nearly 0". This is because the vaccines now only offer roughly 4-6 months of immunity against the current variants. Prior infection offers almost zero protection against BA.5 variant. Along with this, current COVID cases are actually substantially higher than reported, almost as many as our peak omicron wave. The death rate may not be nearly as high as it was, but if the flu were as bad and as contagious as COVID, we'd be doing the same thing for that. Also, please don't go out when you have the flu either.

Just testing when you feel sick is a completely normal and reasonable thing to do. I don't know why you think it isn't. It allows us to continue events like these with minimal investment. If you are sick, you should absolutely test, why would you ever think otherwise? You can't call it a seasonal flu when it's as contagious as measles and also, uh, not seasonal.

And no that "PSA" is absolutely not true. The rapid tests have never had high false positives. It makes very little biological sense for them to. These antigens are quite specific and don't react to anything outside of the virus. The biggest reporting of false positives was due to a bad batch of rapid tests, while the overall false positivity rate being a fraction of a percent (~0.05%). However, the rapid tests do have high false negatives now (due in part to the virus no longer being as abundant in the upper resp tract and the variants decreasing the binding to the antigen). I would recommend all people who would like to test to also include a throat swab in with their nasal swab for the test.


Apologies, 50% false positive was not precise enough. This study estimated a false positive rate of ~47% for antigen tests.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8372488/#:~:text=1 (a and b).,-positive rate was 46.28%.

As to protection from the vaccines waning, adverse effects are minimal and deaths are concentrated in people who are already dying from other causes. And yes, the vaccines do not prevent infection, which is why we all need to accept that everyone is going to get this eventually. Look at the hospitalization numbers. It's elderly folks, the morbidly obese, and hypochondriacs. (Anxiety is the one of the highest predictors of whether someone will be hospitalized from COVID.)

I don't care to argue about it further than this post, but it's important to understand some key concepts here.

First... When you say "false positives are 50%", that's 50% of all that tested positives are actually negative. That is NOT 50% of people who were actually negative tested positive.

Second, if hypothetically, you were testing a population of 1,000,000 people that did NOT have COVID, every positive would be a false positive. So the lower the number of cases, the more false positives (relatively). Fortunately, we have an abundance of cases currently, so this is really not an issue. Note, cases are roughly 10x higher than reported, possibly more due to the lack of PCR testing nowadays.

Next... it's not guaranteed that these are even false positives. There's no perfect way to determine true positivity, so you can never know with certainty whether you were actually positive. PCR, the "gold standard", has some amount of error as well. Since these rates are always measured by (# of positives by rapid test / # of positives by PCR), if the (# of positives by PCR) has error (which it does), then this number will always be always be inaccurate by at least that same level of error. Some of that error comes down to it just being done by a person (human error), while other error comes from biological reasons, such as delays between testing and infection. Then another bit of error comes down to the specific test, as some rapid tests are less precise / worse. Though most of the popular ones now are quite good.

Third... Based on data from Omicron onward, I can tell you that the precision of rapid tests (true positive / true and false positives) is closer to 90%, likely more. The vast vast majority of people who test positive right now by rapid test are in fact positive.

Tl;dr is that rapid testing is good, people should do it if they feel sick, and no, no one should go out in public if they are sick with a highly contagious virus (higher than measles) that has notable long-term health consequences.

Source: I study infectious diseases and work with COVID labs....


Yes, I know what a false positive is. 50% is very high, especially when the positivity rate is approaching 10%. I'm assuming you knew what a false positive rate was when you said it absolutely was not 50%, so just accept that you learned something new and move on.

The one argument that actually holds water is the one a poster just shared re: being stuck abroad due to a positive test. Some nations have lost their minds and may not let their own citizens back into the country if they catch the COVID flu, in which case it makes sense to self-test and stay home.
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland25995 Posts
July 11 2022 13:15 GMT
#34
Can we just call it covid/covid 19/coronavirus/the ‘rona instead of ‘Covid flu’ and all it implies?

That said, I’m seeing less and less point in testing. The gradual dismantling of other supporting apparatus means people are being asked to take all of the hits, without the mitigating support.

That package holiday you’ve paid for months in advance and won’t get even close to a full refund for a cancellation?

I know my employer isn’t giving provision for isolation any more, so it’s either dropping those wages and taking the hit, or coming in. I know some of my colleagues have chosen to take the hit regardless.

Now granted I don’t know how it is the world over least here I can understand why it’s not an especially attractive proposition.
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 11 2022 15:37 GMT
#35
--- Nuked ---
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland25995 Posts
July 11 2022 16:08 GMT
#36
On July 12 2022 00:37 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 11 2022 22:15 WombaT wrote:
Can we just call it covid/covid 19/coronavirus/the ‘rona instead of ‘Covid flu’ and all it implies?

That said, I’m seeing less and less point in testing. The gradual dismantling of other supporting apparatus means people are being asked to take all of the hits, without the mitigating support.

That package holiday you’ve paid for months in advance and won’t get even close to a full refund for a cancellation?

I know my employer isn’t giving provision for isolation any more, so it’s either dropping those wages and taking the hit, or coming in. I know some of my colleagues have chosen to take the hit regardless.

Now granted I don’t know how it is the world over least here I can understand why it’s not an especially attractive proposition.

But when people call it the Covid flu it is a fast and easy way to tell that likely the rest of their information is not worth taking seriously.

Consider it my nice way of saying ‘don’t do that or I won’t take you seriously’.

Which is pretty atypical for me I’m usually happy to be blunt, especially outside of these hallowed TL walls.
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
Slydie
Profile Joined August 2013
1927 Posts
July 12 2022 09:31 GMT
#37
On July 12 2022 00:37 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 11 2022 22:15 WombaT wrote:
Can we just call it covid/covid 19/coronavirus/the ‘rona instead of ‘Covid flu’ and all it implies?

That said, I’m seeing less and less point in testing. The gradual dismantling of other supporting apparatus means people are being asked to take all of the hits, without the mitigating support.

That package holiday you’ve paid for months in advance and won’t get even close to a full refund for a cancellation?

I know my employer isn’t giving provision for isolation any more, so it’s either dropping those wages and taking the hit, or coming in. I know some of my colleagues have chosen to take the hit regardless.

Now granted I don’t know how it is the world over least here I can understand why it’s not an especially attractive proposition.

But when people call it the Covid flu it is a fast and easy way to tell that likely the rest of their information is not worth taking seriously.


Why is that? Flu viruses all started out like pandemics afaik, and some much worse than Covid-19 (the 1918 pandemic killed up to 100 million people). A lot of people and countries are still very worried about Covid-19 and remembers too well how the first strain when there were no vaccines was indeed much more deadly than any recent flu. However, if someone thinks about it as a flu at this point, I am perfectly fine with it.

If the impact of a positive test is worse than the illness itself, including passing it on, why get tested?

Here is a nice 2005 article about historic pandemics. Curiously, they thought higher mortality among younger people was likely in the future, which was not at all the case for Covid-19.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK22148/
Buff the siegetank
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland25995 Posts
July 12 2022 10:44 GMT
#38
On July 12 2022 18:31 Slydie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2022 00:37 JimmiC wrote:
On July 11 2022 22:15 WombaT wrote:
Can we just call it covid/covid 19/coronavirus/the ‘rona instead of ‘Covid flu’ and all it implies?

That said, I’m seeing less and less point in testing. The gradual dismantling of other supporting apparatus means people are being asked to take all of the hits, without the mitigating support.

That package holiday you’ve paid for months in advance and won’t get even close to a full refund for a cancellation?

I know my employer isn’t giving provision for isolation any more, so it’s either dropping those wages and taking the hit, or coming in. I know some of my colleagues have chosen to take the hit regardless.

Now granted I don’t know how it is the world over least here I can understand why it’s not an especially attractive proposition.

But when people call it the Covid flu it is a fast and easy way to tell that likely the rest of their information is not worth taking seriously.


Why is that? Flu viruses all started out like pandemics afaik, and some much worse than Covid-19 (the 1918 pandemic killed up to 100 million people). A lot of people and countries are still very worried about Covid-19 and remembers too well how the first strain when there were no vaccines was indeed much more deadly than any recent flu. However, if someone thinks about it as a flu at this point, I am perfectly fine with it.

If the impact of a positive test is worse than the illness itself, including passing it on, why get tested?

Here is a nice 2005 article about historic pandemics. Curiously, they thought higher mortality among younger people was likely in the future, which was not at all the case for Covid-19.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK22148/

Solely because the people calling it ‘Covid flu’ almost invariably downplayed the pandemic disproportionately, often flat out against available evidence. You’d be lucky to get them to wear a mask much less get vaccinated.

Even if one doesn’t fit that archetype at all, saying ‘covid flu’ very much implies that one does until proven otherwise.

I think it’s perfectly reasonable now, with vaccination uptake, with higher levels of population immunity and resistance etc to consider it a, roughly equivalent virus to ye olde regular flu.

It’s perfectly simple to express that view without using phraseology that Covid skeptics thru deniers used basically from day one of the pandemic.

That was all I was saying, and Jimmy too I believe. I did also share your concern about the current, IMO basically untenable state of affairs (at least in my country) re testing.
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 12 2022 12:09 GMT
#39
--- Nuked ---
v1p3r52
Profile Joined December 2010
New Zealand182 Posts
July 14 2022 01:26 GMT
#40
Im glad GSL let them play. Losing your place in a tournament cos you got COVID would suck and can screw the tournament up.
Bub
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
United States3518 Posts
July 14 2022 01:39 GMT
#41
If it comes to it just play on opposite sides of a plastic window.
XK ßubonic
Telephone
Profile Joined October 2010
United States143 Posts
July 18 2022 05:40 GMT
#42
The crazies really came out for this thread.
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