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Canada8991 Posts
On January 30 2022 19:54 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2022 14:24 Balnazza wrote:On January 30 2022 12:16 honorablemacroterran wrote:On January 30 2022 12:02 Balnazza wrote:
I don't get what people complain about tbh.
As far as I can see, the groups got drawn in packs of four, right? 1 player from Top 4, 1 player from Top 8/12/16/20.
Yes, Group D is a group of death, but that just happens. There is always some "weirdness" happening with draws, but that doesn't mean it is rigged.
I also don't get how people think Serral "always has easy draws". Last year at Kattowice he had Dark and Innovation. Bad draws like that happen...if you want to avoid that, you probably had to put in some kind of seeding.
Just for the lolz - lets do a seeding, where we start in Group A with 1st and just go right:
Group A: Maru - Zest - Reynor - SpeCial - Dream
Group B: Rogue - Cure - Heromarine - Bunny - Zoun
Group C: Trap - Dark -Solar - Neeb - Showtime
Group D: Serral - Clem - TIME - Scarlett - Lambo
(yes, I know, the flaw in this system is that the "weakest" player (Lambo) gets seeded into the 4th players group...it gets balanced out after you seed the PlayIn Top 4 into it)
Is it just me or does Marus group still look really strong while Serrals probably got a bit easier? And we still have a group with four koreans, while we also got one with none.
And this is technically a "fair" seeding without any randomness. Pls check the actual statistics on the group draws that Bela and myself did. You seem to be completely ignoring the points and going by your gut on what you think looks stronger or weaker. Also, I think a lot of people would disagree with the idea that a group with Clem is easier for Serral. I will be honest: Math is just not my strong point. I tried to follow it, but it wasn't working for me - not saying you or Bela are wrong though. But the one thing I do know about statistic is, that it isn't absolute. The chance to win the jackpot is incredibly low - yet it still happens rather frequently. Weirder things have happened. I've seen Hearthstone RNG that went down in the 0,00X%... I would disagree however that I "went by my gut". The groups I mentioned are based on EPT points, so basically groups without any draw, just pure seeding. It is not what I think is stronger or weaker, it is what the points dictate. And overall I don't think the groups look that different compared to the ones we actually got. Because in the end, the difference between the 5th player (Clem) and the 8th player (Zest) is not that big, even though they have 600 points between them. On paper, either one of them looks strong in a group. Though you might be right, Clem is a harder opponent for Serral, but in the end, it doesn't really matter. Either way (actual draw vs. "my" seeding) Serral is in a group that he easily should come out of, while Maru is still in a group that could go bad for one of the big three. I would agree however with some comments that I really don't get why SC2 draws are always done in private. For example, I really enjoy the group-draws before the LoL Worlds. But correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that kind of an ESL thing to not show draws? I don't watch much Counterstrike, but I'm sure I've never seen a group draw in any shape or form in it. The fuck is this logic? You realise this isn't the first time this come into discussion? And this isn't a jackpot situation per se, because you keep ignoring how many times they have to do the drawing and how many people have to take a part to actually get the winner of the jackpot. But in here we have a situation where people complain about the groups EVERY. DAMN. TIME. So while weirder things have happen, they don't tend to happen with this frequency. The frequency is the thing that people question the most and you graciously ignore it  Edit> the most pathetic thing is that all it takes is 5 or 10 minutes of few people life on a camera and then presenting the video.
People complain about the groups because they want to complain, not necessarely because weird things happen
They would have complain if the second player of Serral group was either Dark, Clem, Cure or Zest, if the last player was Lambo instead of Showtime, if Heromarine replaced Time, or if Neeb or Bunny replaced Special. The proportion combinaison that would make people complain about Serral group is very big.
I'd be more suspicious if anyone had an oppinion on the groups of like Heromarine or Bunny in the last few years, they would be impacted too if the draw was righed, except no one see it weird cause no one ever look at their groups in an effort to find a pattern.
Making a live draw would probably solve some of the problems, but I wouldn't hold my breath, aren't we still using Trap Jin-Air picture?
Anyhow, that enough for me. The long wait for Kato begging, we'll restart this conversation once herO get put in group D!
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Serral would be the favorite to get #1 in any group he was in if you switched him with the other #1 seeds (Maru, Trap, Rogue). In addition, if you switched him with Maru, people would have been complaining about how ESL is rigging the bracket to make sure the top three foreigners get out.
If anything, this is the worst group for Serral, because there's now an extremely decent chance he loses the #1 Ro8 spot to Dark, which wouldn't exist if you had switched him for any of the other tier-1 seeds.
TLDR: Serral was always making Ro12, so this group is actually the worst because he could conceivably lose the Ro8 spot to Dark in a way that's more realistic than losing to Clem, Cure, Zest. But people love to complain.
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On January 30 2022 19:54 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2022 14:24 Balnazza wrote:On January 30 2022 12:16 honorablemacroterran wrote:On January 30 2022 12:02 Balnazza wrote:
I don't get what people complain about tbh.
As far as I can see, the groups got drawn in packs of four, right? 1 player from Top 4, 1 player from Top 8/12/16/20.
Yes, Group D is a group of death, but that just happens. There is always some "weirdness" happening with draws, but that doesn't mean it is rigged.
I also don't get how people think Serral "always has easy draws". Last year at Kattowice he had Dark and Innovation. Bad draws like that happen...if you want to avoid that, you probably had to put in some kind of seeding.
Just for the lolz - lets do a seeding, where we start in Group A with 1st and just go right:
Group A: Maru - Zest - Reynor - SpeCial - Dream
Group B: Rogue - Cure - Heromarine - Bunny - Zoun
Group C: Trap - Dark -Solar - Neeb - Showtime
Group D: Serral - Clem - TIME - Scarlett - Lambo
(yes, I know, the flaw in this system is that the "weakest" player (Lambo) gets seeded into the 4th players group...it gets balanced out after you seed the PlayIn Top 4 into it)
Is it just me or does Marus group still look really strong while Serrals probably got a bit easier? And we still have a group with four koreans, while we also got one with none.
And this is technically a "fair" seeding without any randomness. Pls check the actual statistics on the group draws that Bela and myself did. You seem to be completely ignoring the points and going by your gut on what you think looks stronger or weaker. Also, I think a lot of people would disagree with the idea that a group with Clem is easier for Serral. I will be honest: Math is just not my strong point. I tried to follow it, but it wasn't working for me - not saying you or Bela are wrong though. But the one thing I do know about statistic is, that it isn't absolute. The chance to win the jackpot is incredibly low - yet it still happens rather frequently. Weirder things have happened. I've seen Hearthstone RNG that went down in the 0,00X%... I would disagree however that I "went by my gut". The groups I mentioned are based on EPT points, so basically groups without any draw, just pure seeding. It is not what I think is stronger or weaker, it is what the points dictate. And overall I don't think the groups look that different compared to the ones we actually got. Because in the end, the difference between the 5th player (Clem) and the 8th player (Zest) is not that big, even though they have 600 points between them. On paper, either one of them looks strong in a group. Though you might be right, Clem is a harder opponent for Serral, but in the end, it doesn't really matter. Either way (actual draw vs. "my" seeding) Serral is in a group that he easily should come out of, while Maru is still in a group that could go bad for one of the big three. I would agree however with some comments that I really don't get why SC2 draws are always done in private. For example, I really enjoy the group-draws before the LoL Worlds. But correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that kind of an ESL thing to not show draws? I don't watch much Counterstrike, but I'm sure I've never seen a group draw in any shape or form in it. The fuck is this logic? You realise this isn't the first time this come into discussion? And this isn't a jackpot situation per se, because you keep ignoring how many times they have to do the drawing and how many people have to take a part to actually get the winner of the jackpot. But in here we have a situation where people complain about the groups EVERY. DAMN. TIME. So while weirder things have happen, they don't tend to happen with this frequency. The frequency is the thing that people question the most and you graciously ignore it Edit> the most pathetic thing is that all it takes is 5 or 10 minutes of few people life on a camera and then presenting the video.
I think people complain about germanys luck in draws in the football world cup for how many years by now? Somehow we always get an easier group, weird. I think last EURO was the first time in ages we had a group with actually two other good nations...what are the chances for that?
In the end, on paper you cannot balance this groups right. Because Reynor looks too strong for Tier 3, but he is by points. Switch him with any of the other ones (Heromarine, Solar, TIME), suddenly the group he is in looks too strong. So I would love to see people come up with a group draw that looks balanced...and then tell me how likely it is to get that one single draw that is "balanced" compared to the countless variations that is not balanced.
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It's pretty ludicrous to view a group where Serral is very likely getting second place in as rigged for him lol. Like yeah, maybe he's less likely to get eliminated in this group than any other but that wasn't ever going to happen unless you deliberately made a grossly lopsided group. There are three players who are favored against/have 50-50 odds against Serral: Maru, Dark, and Rogue. Only Dark could have been in his group to begin with, and Dark ended up in his group. If people actually cared about integrity of brackets their issue would be group B possibly throwing a lifeline to an open bracket player while someone stronger (Zoun, Dream, maybe even Clem, etc) is very likely getting eliminated.
EPT points is probably a dumb way of seeding the tournament, I think it's fine for deciding the T1 players but the differences in strength between the regions makes it pretty questionable further down the seeding process. I'm not sure what the best alternative would be, we don't have any more "objective" alternative.
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France13018 Posts
I don't think people are complaining about Serral group being too easy, more so that group D is so hard for virtually no reason, and not only because Maru is in it. Hopefully they don't readjust groups for mean EPT points with ro36 qualified players, because herO might make it an even more absurd group seeing how few points he has with still a high chance to qualify
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Group D is more stacked than it should have been, that's for sure.
The conspiracy theories are pathetic as usual tho.
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On January 30 2022 23:45 Poopi wrote:
I don't think people are complaining about Serral group being too easy, more so that group D is so hard for virtually no reason, and not only because Maru is in it. Hopefully they don't readjust groups for mean EPT points with ro36 qualified players, because herO might make it an even more absurd group seeing how few points he has with still a high chance to qualify
There's plenty of people complaining that the Serral group is too easy, mostly that it's *rigged* for him. The spoilered below is just a snippet.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 30 2022 09:27 JJH777 wrote:
The foreigners get easier brackets/groups conspiracy has been going on since at least 2011. In most cases it's just chance and even though I often call it out I know that most tournaments aren't rigged in that way and it really did just happen by chance but I do believe there have been tournaments where an organizer rolled the groups or bracket an extra time to get the matchups they wanted. It's hard to know which is which.
Also, regardless of whether it's actually rigged or not a big reason I mention it is because it should be part of a players legacy. The fact that Serral has only ever had a single tournament where he played top players from start to finish should be counted when people are talking about his dominance/results. I don't know of any other top player who consistently gets easy paths like Serral. Even ones who have won less. On January 30 2022 03:22 Vindicare605 wrote:
How the hell does Group B (and it's ALWAYS Serral's groups) have only one Korean player in it, but Group A has 4? On January 30 2022 04:05 Durnuu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2022 03:22 Vindicare605 wrote:
How the hell does Group B (and it's ALWAYS Serral's groups) have only one Korean player in it, but Group A has 4? It's an ESL tournament and Apollo is part of ESL. Need I say more?
Also, to be frank, Group B is definitely the easiest group overall in terms of making it to Ro12, but I'm not sure I'm 100% convinced that Group D is *meaningfully* harder than Groups A and C. Like, especially with Reynor and Clem's recent struggles, do you really think that Maru/Clem/Reynor is more difficult than Rogue/Cure/Solar? Or Trap/Zest/Bunny?
I think it's definitely more hype because there's a bunch of beloved foreigners all duking int out - but in terms of a pure power level, even if I actually agreed its the most difficult group, it's definitely not by that much.
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The idea that Serral could never be eliminated in an IEM group so the only thing that matters is how easy it is for him to get first meaning this is actually a hard group is such a Serral fanboy thing to say mere weeks after he was eliminated in a premier group stage by DRG of all players. Dream barely didn't do it too.
If you swap him with Rogue or Maru into their groups and the right player comes in from the ro36 (say DRG?) There's absolutely a chance he could be eliminated. It's low but if you played either of those hypothetical groups out 10 times he'd definitely lose out to some combination of DRG/Solar/Cure/Dream or Reynor/Clem/Zoun/DRG at least 1-2 times each group.
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On January 31 2022 01:29 JJH777 wrote:
The idea that Serral could never be eliminated in an IEM group so the only thing that matters is how easy it is for him to get first meaning this is actually a hard group is such a Serral fanboy thing to say mere weeks after he was eliminated in a premier group stage by DRG of all players. Dream barely didn't do it too.
If you swap him with Rogue or Maru into their groups and the right player comes in from the ro36 (say DRG?) There's absolutely a chance he could be eliminated. It's low but if you played either of those hypothetical groups out 10 times he'd definitely lose out to some combination of DRG/Solar/Cure/Dream or Reynor/Clem/Zoun/DRG at least 1-2 times each group.
Even assuming everything you said (or implied) was true, you would still be 100% wrong. If, as you say, Serral still gets out of any group at least 80% of the time, then the much more interesting (and important) question would be whether he is going to get out in first. And as said above by many individuals, him being in a group with Dark is therefore the worst group for that outcome.
+ Show Spoiler + But I will say, by the way, that there's also probably a 10-20% chance that Rogue doesn't make it out of the group, or one of Trap/Zest doesn't make it out of the group. Rogue because he's Rogue and Trap/Zest tbh got really bad groups because Lambo has shown great success against them and Heromarine's TvP has been his best, esp. against Koreans, and Bunny is absolutely no slouch and can play top-tier at times.)
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Trap and Zest in the same group 
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On January 31 2022 01:52 Acrofales wrote:Trap and Zest in the same group
with Trap's recent shape, I kind of expect him to get last place in the group
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I don't know how people are saying that a group that has Dark and the lowest total EPT points is the worst possible for Serral when there's a group with Clem and Reynor in the 2nd and 3rd slots. I want to be clear that I don't think the draw was rigged for Serral, but come on. If Serral were in Maru's slot I bet they'd be saying it's rigged against him.
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On January 31 2022 04:33 honorablemacroterran wrote:
I don't know how people are saying that a group that has Dark and the lowest total EPT points is the worst possible for Serral when there's a group with Clem and Reynor in the 2nd and 3rd slots. I want to be clear that I don't think the draw was rigged for Serral, but come on. If Serral were in Maru's slot I bet they'd be saying it's rigged against him.
Actually, I'm pretty sure that the same people would be complaining and calling it foreigner favoritism so the big 3 can dodge top Koreans and make the bracket.
While I'm sure you can find a few people over the years claiming things are rigged against Serral, it's pretty obvious where the lion's share of deranged claims of rigging are coming from.
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stop whining about group d
clem is historical not that good vs koreans and reynor is on a long slump
you have 4 favorites to win the tournament maru/serral/rogue/dark
2 of them are in group b
the tournament winner will be decided on single elimination bracket and the current shape of the players
the importance of group seeding is a bit overrated
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On January 31 2022 11:21 tilhorizon wrote:
stop whining about group d
clem is historical not that good vs koreans and reynor is on a long slump
you have 4 favorites to win the tournament maru/serral/rogue/dark
2 of them are in group b
the tournament winner will be decided on single elimination bracket and the current shape of the players
the importance of group seeding is a bit overrated
The group outcomes lead to the single elimination seeding though.
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On January 31 2022 04:52 dysenterymd wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2022 04:33 honorablemacroterran wrote:
I don't know how people are saying that a group that has Dark and the lowest total EPT points is the worst possible for Serral when there's a group with Clem and Reynor in the 2nd and 3rd slots. I want to be clear that I don't think the draw was rigged for Serral, but come on. If Serral were in Maru's slot I bet they'd be saying it's rigged against him. Actually, I'm pretty sure that the same people would be complaining and calling it foreigner favoritism so the big 3 can dodge top Koreans and make the bracket. While I'm sure you can find a few people over the years claiming things are rigged against Serral, it's pretty obvious where the lion's share of deranged claims of rigging are coming from.
Depends on the era and skill level of foreigners. During WoL and HoTS, there were hardly any foreigners in Top 3-5. So any group stacked with foreigners with lowly Koreans seem to be aimed at ensuring a foreigner to advance.
Now, the context is different. Serral is a proven success story and Top 3. So getting an 'easier' group seems to be aimed at guaranteeing him advancement.
In both situations, there's a case to be made that the groups seem to be engineered to maximise foreigner chances of success. Not saying that it's true either way. Just explaining how groups can be 'rigged' in different ways depending on different circumstances. So there's no inconsistency in both types of claims.
P.S. I greatly doubt that people will raise concerns of the groups being rigged to favour foreigners if, say, all top foreigners (Serral, Reynor, Clem) are placed in a group of death. Most likely Reynor and Clem fans will be peeved and raise a ruckus.
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My feeling is that Katowice is going to go worse for the foreigners than the form book would say. Not because of any groups, simply because it's the first LAN in such a long time. Koreans have their regular offline appearances, but the foreigners might very well be unsettled simply by leaving the home setup. I seem to remember that all the top three guys had events this year where they didn't play from the same place as usual, and performed worse immediately.
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Czech Republic12133 Posts
On January 30 2022 22:04 Nakajin wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2022 19:54 deacon.frost wrote:On January 30 2022 14:24 Balnazza wrote:On January 30 2022 12:16 honorablemacroterran wrote:On January 30 2022 12:02 Balnazza wrote:
I don't get what people complain about tbh.
As far as I can see, the groups got drawn in packs of four, right? 1 player from Top 4, 1 player from Top 8/12/16/20.
Yes, Group D is a group of death, but that just happens. There is always some "weirdness" happening with draws, but that doesn't mean it is rigged.
I also don't get how people think Serral "always has easy draws". Last year at Kattowice he had Dark and Innovation. Bad draws like that happen...if you want to avoid that, you probably had to put in some kind of seeding.
Just for the lolz - lets do a seeding, where we start in Group A with 1st and just go right:
Group A: Maru - Zest - Reynor - SpeCial - Dream
Group B: Rogue - Cure - Heromarine - Bunny - Zoun
Group C: Trap - Dark -Solar - Neeb - Showtime
Group D: Serral - Clem - TIME - Scarlett - Lambo
(yes, I know, the flaw in this system is that the "weakest" player (Lambo) gets seeded into the 4th players group...it gets balanced out after you seed the PlayIn Top 4 into it)
Is it just me or does Marus group still look really strong while Serrals probably got a bit easier? And we still have a group with four koreans, while we also got one with none.
And this is technically a "fair" seeding without any randomness. Pls check the actual statistics on the group draws that Bela and myself did. You seem to be completely ignoring the points and going by your gut on what you think looks stronger or weaker. Also, I think a lot of people would disagree with the idea that a group with Clem is easier for Serral. I will be honest: Math is just not my strong point. I tried to follow it, but it wasn't working for me - not saying you or Bela are wrong though. But the one thing I do know about statistic is, that it isn't absolute. The chance to win the jackpot is incredibly low - yet it still happens rather frequently. Weirder things have happened. I've seen Hearthstone RNG that went down in the 0,00X%... I would disagree however that I "went by my gut". The groups I mentioned are based on EPT points, so basically groups without any draw, just pure seeding. It is not what I think is stronger or weaker, it is what the points dictate. And overall I don't think the groups look that different compared to the ones we actually got. Because in the end, the difference between the 5th player (Clem) and the 8th player (Zest) is not that big, even though they have 600 points between them. On paper, either one of them looks strong in a group. Though you might be right, Clem is a harder opponent for Serral, but in the end, it doesn't really matter. Either way (actual draw vs. "my" seeding) Serral is in a group that he easily should come out of, while Maru is still in a group that could go bad for one of the big three. I would agree however with some comments that I really don't get why SC2 draws are always done in private. For example, I really enjoy the group-draws before the LoL Worlds. But correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that kind of an ESL thing to not show draws? I don't watch much Counterstrike, but I'm sure I've never seen a group draw in any shape or form in it. The fuck is this logic? You realise this isn't the first time this come into discussion? And this isn't a jackpot situation per se, because you keep ignoring how many times they have to do the drawing and how many people have to take a part to actually get the winner of the jackpot. But in here we have a situation where people complain about the groups EVERY. DAMN. TIME. So while weirder things have happen, they don't tend to happen with this frequency. The frequency is the thing that people question the most and you graciously ignore it Edit> the most pathetic thing is that all it takes is 5 or 10 minutes of few people life on a camera and then presenting the video. People complain about the groups because they want to complain, not necessarely because weird things happen They would have complain if the second player of Serral group was either Dark, Clem, Cure or Zest, if the last player was Lambo instead of Showtime, if Heromarine replaced Time, or if Neeb or Bunny replaced Special. The proportion combinaison that would make people complain about Serral group is very big. I'd be more suspicious if anyone had an oppinion on the groups of like Heromarine or Bunny in the last few years, they would be impacted too if the draw was righed, except no one see it weird cause no one ever look at their groups in an effort to find a pattern. Making a live draw would probably solve some of the problems, but I wouldn't hold my breath, aren't we still using Trap Jin-Air picture? Anyhow, that enough for me. The long wait for Kato begging, we'll restart this conversation once herO get put in group D!
It doesn't have to be live, it just had to produce uncut video. That's everything. People complain because it is being done behind a curtain. Remove the curtain and people will stop complaining. It's just laziness on the ESL part. THey are creating the groups so let us show the process. (maybe there's a reason to not show the process  and I am more talking about low effort rather than conspiracy )
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EPT
