On January 30 2022 05:10 honorablemacroterran wrote: 1/64 chance is still enough for a lot of research to claim it is statistically significant, though, to put it into perspective.
Fair enough.
I just think it's a bit silly to throw in that the bracket are rigged and quite mean toward the players.
On January 30 2022 05:10 honorablemacroterran wrote: 1/64 chance is still enough for a lot of research to claim it is statistically significant, though, to put it into perspective.
Fair enough.
I just think it's a bit silly to throw in that the bracket are rigged and quite mean toward the players.
I don't think it implies anything about the players--they shouldn't have had anything to do with it.
On January 30 2022 05:10 honorablemacroterran wrote: 1/64 chance is still enough for a lot of research to claim it is statistically significant, though, to put it into perspective.
Fair enough.
I just think it's a bit silly to throw in that the bracket are rigged and quite mean toward the players.
I don't think it implies anything about the players--they shouldn't have had anything to do with it.
The way it's presented by some is definitly that certain players (ie Serral) have had more success than they deserved because tournament organisers are stacking the odd in their favor behind the scene.
On January 30 2022 05:21 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:21 Nakajin wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:10 honorablemacroterran wrote: 1/64 chance is still enough for a lot of research to claim it is statistically significant, though, to put it into perspective.
Fair enough.
I just think it's a bit silly to throw in that the bracket are rigged and quite mean toward the players.
I don't think it implies anything about the players--they shouldn't have had anything to do with it.
The way it's presented by some is definitly that certain players (ie Serral) have had more success than they deserved because tournament organisers are stacking the odd in their favor behind the scene.
Here's another interesting way to look at this problem.
On January 30 2022 05:21 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:21 Nakajin wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:10 honorablemacroterran wrote: 1/64 chance is still enough for a lot of research to claim it is statistically significant, though, to put it into perspective.
Fair enough.
I just think it's a bit silly to throw in that the bracket are rigged and quite mean toward the players.
I don't think it implies anything about the players--they shouldn't have had anything to do with it.
The way it's presented by some is definitly that certain players (ie Serral) have had more success than they deserved because tournament organisers are stacking the odd in their favor behind the scene.
Here's another interesting way to look at this problem.
On January 30 2022 06:21 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:27 Nakajin wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:21 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:21 Nakajin wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:10 honorablemacroterran wrote: 1/64 chance is still enough for a lot of research to claim it is statistically significant, though, to put it into perspective.
Fair enough.
I just think it's a bit silly to throw in that the bracket are rigged and quite mean toward the players.
I don't think it implies anything about the players--they shouldn't have had anything to do with it.
The way it's presented by some is definitly that certain players (ie Serral) have had more success than they deserved because tournament organisers are stacking the odd in their favor behind the scene.
Here's another interesting way to look at this problem.
On January 30 2022 06:21 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:27 Nakajin wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:21 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:21 Nakajin wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:10 honorablemacroterran wrote: 1/64 chance is still enough for a lot of research to claim it is statistically significant, though, to put it into perspective.
Fair enough.
I just think it's a bit silly to throw in that the bracket are rigged and quite mean toward the players.
I don't think it implies anything about the players--they shouldn't have had anything to do with it.
The way it's presented by some is definitly that certain players (ie Serral) have had more success than they deserved because tournament organisers are stacking the odd in their favor behind the scene.
Here's another interesting way to look at this problem.
On January 30 2022 06:21 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:27 Nakajin wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:21 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:21 Nakajin wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:10 honorablemacroterran wrote: 1/64 chance is still enough for a lot of research to claim it is statistically significant, though, to put it into perspective.
Fair enough.
I just think it's a bit silly to throw in that the bracket are rigged and quite mean toward the players.
I don't think it implies anything about the players--they shouldn't have had anything to do with it.
The way it's presented by some is definitly that certain players (ie Serral) have had more success than they deserved because tournament organisers are stacking the odd in their favor behind the scene.
Here's another interesting way to look at this problem.
It says that there's a 0.8% chance for the average of Group D EPT points to be 297 points or greater than the averages of the other groups.
0.8% chance for group D or Maru's group? cause "Group D" doesn't actually mean anything
and Maru himself brings a bunch of points with him so his group is naturally a bit higher since ESL doesn't give any advantage to the #1 seed
it's 0.8% for the group with the highest points
so it's even lower for Maru then
Yes I can try constructing that simulation but I think your intuition will be correct. On the other hand, Maru having the most points and the tier system will tend to make his group the one with the most points anyway.
I would add that the tier with the biggest skew is tier 3 though. The gap between Reynor and HeroMarine is the single biggest gap between adjacent players.
On January 30 2022 06:21 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:27 Nakajin wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:21 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:21 Nakajin wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:10 honorablemacroterran wrote: 1/64 chance is still enough for a lot of research to claim it is statistically significant, though, to put it into perspective.
Fair enough.
I just think it's a bit silly to throw in that the bracket are rigged and quite mean toward the players.
I don't think it implies anything about the players--they shouldn't have had anything to do with it.
The way it's presented by some is definitly that certain players (ie Serral) have had more success than they deserved because tournament organisers are stacking the odd in their favor behind the scene.
Here's another interesting way to look at this problem.
It says that there's a 0.8% chance for the average of Group D EPT points to be 297 points or greater than the averages of the other groups.
0.8% chance for group D or Maru's group? cause "Group D" doesn't actually mean anything
and Maru himself brings a bunch of points with him so his group is naturally a bit higher since ESL doesn't give any advantage to the #1 seed
it's 0.8% for the group with the highest points
so it's even lower for Maru then
Yes I can try constructing that simulation but I think your intuition will be correct. On the other hand, Maru having the most points and the tier system will tend to make his group the one with the most points anyway.
Unless I'm crazy it can only be a Maru group since the 297 is the maximum amount -65 (dif between Dream and Zoun) and Maru has almost 250 point over Rogue in second place
On January 30 2022 06:39 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 06:37 Die4Ever wrote:
On January 30 2022 06:33 warnull wrote:
On January 30 2022 06:26 Die4Ever wrote:
On January 30 2022 06:21 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:27 Nakajin wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:21 honorablemacroterran wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:21 Nakajin wrote:
On January 30 2022 05:10 honorablemacroterran wrote: 1/64 chance is still enough for a lot of research to claim it is statistically significant, though, to put it into perspective.
Fair enough.
I just think it's a bit silly to throw in that the bracket are rigged and quite mean toward the players.
I don't think it implies anything about the players--they shouldn't have had anything to do with it.
The way it's presented by some is definitly that certain players (ie Serral) have had more success than they deserved because tournament organisers are stacking the odd in their favor behind the scene.
Here's another interesting way to look at this problem.
It says that there's a 0.8% chance for the average of Group D EPT points to be 297 points or greater than the averages of the other groups.
0.8% chance for group D or Maru's group? cause "Group D" doesn't actually mean anything
and Maru himself brings a bunch of points with him so his group is naturally a bit higher since ESL doesn't give any advantage to the #1 seed
it's 0.8% for the group with the highest points
so it's even lower for Maru then
Yes I can try constructing that simulation but I think your intuition will be correct. On the other hand, Maru having the most points and the tier system will tend to make his group the one with the most points anyway.
Unless I'm crazy it can only be a Maru group since the 297 is the maximum amount -65 (dif between Dream and Zoun) and Maru has almost 250 point over Rogue in second place
I updated that post. I think where Reynor gets placed also has a big impact because he's 9th and there's a big gap between him and HeroMarine too.
Two years in a row(and that's just what I remember) with this conspiracy. Is it really that hard to record the process and show the video there's no conspiracy involved?
The foreigners get easier brackets/groups conspiracy has been going on since at least 2011. In most cases it's just chance and even though I often call it out I know that most tournaments aren't rigged in that way and it really did just happen by chance but I do believe there have been tournaments where an organizer rolled the groups or bracket an extra time to get the matchups they wanted. It's hard to know which is which.
Also, regardless of whether it's actually rigged or not a big reason I mention it is because it should be part of a players legacy. The fact that Serral has only ever had a single tournament where he played top players from start to finish should be counted when people are talking about his dominance/results. I don't know of any other top player who consistently gets easy paths like Serral. Even ones who have won less.
On January 30 2022 09:27 JJH777 wrote: The foreigners get easier brackets/groups conspiracy has been going on since at least 2011. In most cases it's just chance and even though I often call it out I know that most tournaments aren't rigged in that way and it really did just happen by chance but I do believe there have been tournaments where an organizer rolled the groups or bracket an extra time to get the matchups they wanted. It's hard to know which is which.
Also, regardless of whether it's actually rigged or not a big reason I mention it is because it should be part of a players legacy. The fact that Serral has only ever had a single tournament where he played top players from start to finish should be counted when people are talking about his dominance/results. I don't know of any other top player who consistently gets easy paths like Serral. Even ones who have won less.
I don't think the main story here is about foreigners vs Koreans. I think it's about everyone in Group D having a significantly harder group than everyone else. Most players in Group D are actually foreigners.
thanks for the problem (while i let the whisky settle a bit)
it is aktchually 1.17% (probability for the max EPT sum group to have no less than 10056 points, uniform draws per tiers). there are 3 of those scores, this current 10056, 10072 (Neeb+Dream) and the max 10122 (Nakajin: confirm, all these has Maru) i have assigned the first 4 players a group id (it is just a labeling for an extra * 4! which we dont care about ) the rest can be computed, we only have (4!)^4 = 331776 cases. these 3 scores each account for (3!)^4=1296 cases, so we have 3*1296/331776.
EPT
![[image loading]](https://i.ibb.co/wdT9w6R/Figure-1.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/DxcCDZk.png)
