IEM Katowice 2022: RO24 groups, RO36 bracket announced - P…

On January 29 2022 19:36 Vindicare605 wrote:
I dunno, I think Percival in a TvT is very capable of knocking Byun out. In the other two match ups though I'd say Byun is still the better player as long as his wrists hold out. But if Percival takes out Byun I'd say he has a decent shot at coming through that top part of the bracket.

The lower bracket is harder though and I gotta be pulling for DRG to get out of there. I think he can make waves in the main tournament, there's at least 10 players I'd favor him in a Bo5 with.

So dark horse pick for me here is Percival making it out of the top bracket. I'd say it's a long shot but I don't think Byun is as favored there as others do.

On January 30 2022 03:36 honorablemacroterran wrote:
A             B             C             D      
2937       2670       2897       3185
2153       2397       1976       2536
1369       1333       1573       1914
1265       1237       1240       1315
1172       752             740       1106

Mean 1779       1677       1685       2011
Variance 570396       668001       664304       741687

One of these things is not like the others. One of these things just doesn't belong.

On January 30 2022 04:05 Durnuu wrote:

It's an ESL tournament and Apollo is part of ESL.
Need I say more?

On January 30 2022 03:22 Vindicare605 wrote:
How the hell does Group B (and it's ALWAYS Serral's groups) have only one Korean player in it, but Group A has 4?

On January 30 2022 04:08 JJH777 wrote:
Jeeze after being pleasantly surprised by the ro36 bracket these groups are miserable. They really don't want KR to dominate the ro12. Also Dark/Serral/Special/Time were all in the same group last year weren't they..? I know Dark/Serral/Special were.

On January 30 2022 04:31 tigera6 wrote:

Yeah, I think ESL just copy pasta the whole group from last year or something, just too much of a coincidence for the group to repeat.
And group D got the highest total of EPTs points because first four players in the groups are at the top of their respective "tier", so its 1-5-9-13. Again, too much of a coincidence for something to be that way.

On January 30 2022 04:43 Nakajin wrote:


I mean it's a one in 64 chance, it's like mildly surprising.

On January 30 2022 04:45 honorablemacroterran wrote:


Can you show us the math on the probability?

On January 30 2022 04:48 Nakajin wrote:


4*4*4 (no1 need to be in one of the groups, on chance in four for 5th seed, 9th seed, 13th seed to be in the same one)

Don't get me wrong it's a very hard group and it's unfortunate for the players (and fortunate for the fans!) But very much in the realm of possibility without thinkering with the groups

On January 30 2022 04:48 Nakajin wrote:


4*4*4 (no1 need to be in one of the groups, on chance in four for 5th seed, 9th seed, 13th seed to be in the same one)

import numpy as np
tier2 = [5,6,7,8]
tier3 = [9,10,11,12]
tier4 = [13,14,15,16]
tier5 = [17,18,19,20]

sims = []
for i in range(100000):
selected_group = [1,
np.random.choice(tier2),
np.random.choice(tier3),
np.random.choice(tier4),
np.random.choice(tier5)]
sims.append(selected_group)

numerator = 0
for x in sims:
if x == [1, 5, 9, 13, 17]:
numerator += 1

prob = numerator/100000
print(prob)

On January 30 2022 05:03 JJH777 wrote:


That's only one of the odd coincidences though. What about group B having one Korean and having 4 of the same players as last year?

On January 30 2022 05:06 honorablemacroterran wrote:



I think you're off by a factor of 4.



This gives me a 0.4% chance.