ESL have announced the round-of-36 play-in and round-of-24 group stage brackets IEM Katowice 2022. Sixteen players participate in a double elimination bracket, with four players advancing on to the RO24 group stage (two from the upper bracket, two from the losers' bracket). The group stage is played out as a round robin, with 3 players from each group advancing to the playoffs (#1 players from each group get a one round bye).
IEM Katowice 2022: RO24 groups, RO36 bracket announced
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ESL have announced the round-of-36 play-in and round-of-24 group stage brackets IEM Katowice 2022. Sixteen players participate in a double elimination bracket, with four players advancing on to the RO24 group stage (two from the upper bracket, two from the losers' bracket). The group stage is played out as a round robin, with 3 players from each group advancing to the playoffs (#1 players from each group get a one round bye). | ||
JJH777
United States4276 Posts
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buzz_bender
441 Posts
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ShowTheLights
Korea (South)1654 Posts
The BIGGEST tournament of the year and you match HAS vs CYAN?! We get literally ONE tournament to see the World play vs each other and you cant make a better bracket than this? | ||
Poopi
France12463 Posts
On January 29 2022 08:58 ShowTheLights wrote: Has Vs Cyan.. are you fucking serious? The BIGGEST tournament of the year and you match HAS vs CYAN?! We get literally ONE tournament to see the World play vs each other and you cant make a better bracket than this? It seems like seeds worked out that way, probably because they get a similar amount of points being in their regions | ||
zalem95
Peru183 Posts
WTH? | ||
Die4Ever
United States17430 Posts
On January 29 2022 09:34 zalem95 wrote: No serral? WTH? the top 24 is separate, see here IEM Katowice/2022 | ||
Nakajin
Canada8758 Posts
On January 29 2022 08:58 ShowTheLights wrote: Has Vs Cyan.. are you fucking serious? The BIGGEST tournament of the year and you match HAS vs CYAN?! We get literally ONE tournament to see the World play vs each other and you cant make a better bracket than this? Hey if it make you feel better, it look like the chinese won't even make it | ||
Pandain
United States12857 Posts
On January 29 2022 07:59 JJH777 wrote: I like this bracket. It seems very well balanced. Hope some Toss make it through so the group stage isn't extremely unbalanced. Would be nice to see some success from herO and Creator. I agree! Especially herO - he's the one who I think could actually make it pretty far! Otherwise, would love to see Byun and DRG make it out as well! | ||
zelevin
United States200 Posts
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Blargh
United States2073 Posts
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tigera6
2898 Posts
On January 29 2022 13:32 zelevin wrote: Of these ro36 players, who do you think has the best shot at winning the whole thing? imo, Byun and herO got the best shot of all, but there are a much higher chance of them getting knocked off the Ro24. | ||
Vindicare605
United States15705 Posts
On January 29 2022 10:10 Nakajin wrote: Hey if it make you feel better, it look like the chinese won't even make it TIME is already qualified isn't he? | ||
RussianLaughAXAX
1 Post
On January 29 2022 13:32 zelevin wrote: Of these ro36 players, who do you think has the best shot at winning the whole thing? Honestly, none of these players are capable of winning the whole thing, thats why they're in ro36, because these players simply dont win.... but herO is best of them all | ||
dbRic1203
Germany2644 Posts
Yes. But aparently they have Visa isues, so it might be possible they both have to drop out | ||
RKC
2847 Posts
On January 29 2022 13:32 zelevin wrote: Of these ro36 players, who do you think has the best shot at winning the whole thing? None. If I had to pick one - hero. The reason is simply because the 'peak' of all other players for the past 1-2 years is crystal clear - not good enough to win consistently against the top 5 players (Serral, Maru, Rogue, Reynor, Dark). Also, I believe the seedings will place them in tough spots even if they do qualify to the next group stage. The only way they can pull a miracle run is by bracket luck or the top players suddenly all having a bad day. Hero is still improving since returning from military. His previous peak is quite high - maybe not top 5, but at least top 10. Chances are, he'll never re-discover his old form. But there are some promising signs, such as nearly defeating Maru in ST. Still, I rate his odds of winning everything around or over 100-1 (starting from this round onward). | ||
KalWarkov
Germany4126 Posts
Top: Byun > Ragnarok Bottom: Elazer < DRG | ||
HolydaKing
21224 Posts
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Vindicare605
United States15705 Posts
The lower bracket is harder though and I gotta be pulling for DRG to get out of there. I think he can make waves in the main tournament, there's at least 10 players I'd favor him in a Bo5 with. So dark horse pick for me here is Percival making it out of the top bracket. I'd say it's a long shot but I don't think Byun is as favored there as others do. | ||
Die4Ever
United States17430 Posts
On January 29 2022 14:33 Blargh wrote: Jeeze, traveling right now must be hell... Think about traveling internationally just to get beat by Byun or DRG before even reaching the final bracket... At least they get prize money at 36th place... at least it's double elimination | ||
Nakajin
Canada8758 Posts
On January 29 2022 19:36 Vindicare605 wrote: I dunno, I think Percival in a TvT is very capable of knocking Byun out. In the other two match ups though I'd say Byun is still the better player as long as his wrists hold out. But if Percival takes out Byun I'd say he has a decent shot at coming through that top part of the bracket. The lower bracket is harder though and I gotta be pulling for DRG to get out of there. I think he can make waves in the main tournament, there's at least 10 players I'd favor him in a Bo5 with. So dark horse pick for me here is Percival making it out of the top bracket. I'd say it's a long shot but I don't think Byun is as favored there as others do. I don't think Percival can make it pass the rest of the guys in the upper bracket after ByuN My own dark-horse for the top half would be Cyan if he can make it, it's a long shot but Ragnarok zvp has never been great and then a last match vs Armani/ByuN/Percival is certainly doable. | ||
tigera6
2898 Posts
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Kreuger
Sweden497 Posts
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Vindicare605
United States15705 Posts
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honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
2937 2670 2897 3185 2153 2397 1976 2536 1369 1333 1573 1914 1265 1237 1240 1315 1172 752 740 1106 Mean 1779 1677 1685 2011 Variance 570396 668001 664304 741687 One of these things is not like the others. One of these things just doesn't belong. | ||
Die4Ever
United States17430 Posts
On January 30 2022 03:36 honorablemacroterran wrote: A B C D 2937 2670 2897 3185 2153 2397 1976 2536 1369 1333 1573 1914 1265 1237 1240 1315 1172 752 740 1106 Mean 1779 1677 1685 2011 Variance 570396 668001 664304 741687 One of these things is not like the others. One of these things just doesn't belong. fixed your alignment another way to put it, the point totals for each group are: Group A : 8896 points Group B : 8389 points Group C : 8426 points Group D : 10056 points | ||
Durnuu
13267 Posts
On January 30 2022 03:22 Vindicare605 wrote: How the hell does Group B (and it's ALWAYS Serral's groups) have only one Korean player in it, but Group A has 4? It's an ESL tournament and Apollo is part of ESL. Need I say more? | ||
JJH777
United States4276 Posts
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Nakajin
Canada8758 Posts
On January 30 2022 04:05 Durnuu wrote: It's an ESL tournament and Apollo is part of ESL. Need I say more? Ah yes the good old conspiracy of putting three of the four most popular foreigner in the same group with the tournament favorite and Zoun who's playing like a boss. | ||
ShowTheLights
Korea (South)1654 Posts
On January 30 2022 03:22 Vindicare605 wrote: How the hell does Group B (and it's ALWAYS Serral's groups) have only one Korean player in it, but Group A has 4? biggest tournament of the year where it is the ONE chance we get to see world vs koreans and they stack europeans in B and koreans in A | ||
Elentos
55454 Posts
Honestly it's amazing how every group has minimum 2 players who already shared a group last year. | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
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tigera6
2898 Posts
On January 30 2022 04:08 JJH777 wrote: Jeeze after being pleasantly surprised by the ro36 bracket these groups are miserable. They really don't want KR to dominate the ro12. Also Dark/Serral/Special/Time were all in the same group last year weren't they..? I know Dark/Serral/Special were. Yeah, I think ESL just copy pasta the whole group from last year or something, just too much of a coincidence for the group to repeat. And group D got the highest total of EPTs points because first four players in the groups are at the top of their respective "tier", so its 1-5-9-13. Again, too much of a coincidence for something to be that way. | ||
Nakajin
Canada8758 Posts
On January 30 2022 04:31 tigera6 wrote: Yeah, I think ESL just copy pasta the whole group from last year or something, just too much of a coincidence for the group to repeat. And group D got the highest total of EPTs points because first four players in the groups are at the top of their respective "tier", so its 1-5-9-13. Again, too much of a coincidence for something to be that way. I mean it's a one in 64 chance, it's like mildly surprising. | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On January 30 2022 04:43 Nakajin wrote: I mean it's a one in 64 chance, it's like mildly surprising. Can you show us the math on the probability? | ||
Nakajin
Canada8758 Posts
On January 30 2022 04:45 honorablemacroterran wrote: Can you show us the math on the probability? 4*4*4 (no1 need to be in one of the groups, on chance in four for 5th seed, 9th seed, 13th seed to be in the same one) Don't get me wrong it's a very hard group and it's unfortunate for the players (and fortunate for the fans!) But very much in the realm of possibility without thinkering with the groups | ||
JJH777
United States4276 Posts
On January 30 2022 04:48 Nakajin wrote: 4*4*4 (no1 need to be in one of the groups, on chance in four for 5th seed, 9th seed, 13th seed to be in the same one) Don't get me wrong it's a very hard group and it's unfortunate for the players (and fortunate for the fans!) But very much in the realm of possibility without thinkering with the groups That's only one of the odd coincidences though. What about group B having one Korean and having 4 of the same players as last year? | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On January 30 2022 04:48 Nakajin wrote: 4*4*4 (no1 need to be in one of the groups, on chance in four for 5th seed, 9th seed, 13th seed to be in the same one) I think you're off by a factor of 4. import numpy as np tier2 = [5,6,7,8] tier3 = [9,10,11,12] tier4 = [13,14,15,16] tier5 = [17,18,19,20] sims = [] for i in range(100000): selected_group = [1, np.random.choice(tier2), np.random.choice(tier3), np.random.choice(tier4), np.random.choice(tier5)] sims.append(selected_group) numerator = 0 for x in sims: if x == [1, 5, 9, 13, 17]: numerator += 1 prob = numerator/100000 print(prob) This gives me a 0.4% chance. Edit: nvm, I mistakenly thought Zoun was above Dream for some reason | ||
Nakajin
Canada8758 Posts
On January 30 2022 05:03 JJH777 wrote: That's only one of the odd coincidences though. What about group B having one Korean and having 4 of the same players as last year? So I suck at math but, Serral had 1/4 chance to get a foreigner first (he didn't), then 3/4 chance to get a foreigner (he did), then 3/4 chance to get a foreigner (he did), then 1/2 chance to get a foreigner (he did). So it was quite likely actually. I can't do the math on the 2020-2021 comparaison. On January 30 2022 05:06 honorablemacroterran wrote: I think you're off by a factor of 4. This gives me a 0.4% chance. Zoun isn't the top of his tier though, Dream is | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
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Poopi
France12463 Posts
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Nakajin
Canada8758 Posts
On January 30 2022 05:10 honorablemacroterran wrote: 1/64 chance is still enough for a lot of research to claim it is statistically significant, though, to put it into perspective. Fair enough. I just think it's a bit silly to throw in that the bracket are rigged and quite mean toward the players. | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On January 30 2022 05:21 Nakajin wrote: Fair enough. I just think it's a bit silly to throw in that the bracket are rigged and quite mean toward the players. I don't think it implies anything about the players--they shouldn't have had anything to do with it. | ||
Nakajin
Canada8758 Posts
On January 30 2022 05:21 honorablemacroterran wrote: I don't think it implies anything about the players--they shouldn't have had anything to do with it. The way it's presented by some is definitly that certain players (ie Serral) have had more success than they deserved because tournament organisers are stacking the odd in their favor behind the scene. | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
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honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On January 30 2022 05:27 Nakajin wrote: The way it's presented by some is definitly that certain players (ie Serral) have had more success than they deserved because tournament organisers are stacking the odd in their favor behind the scene. Here's another interesting way to look at this problem. https://pastebin.com/bv2uP8tZ It says that there's a 0.8% chance for the average of Group D EPT points to be 297 points or greater than the averages of the other groups. | ||
Die4Ever
United States17430 Posts
On January 30 2022 06:21 honorablemacroterran wrote: Here's another interesting way to look at this problem. https://pastebin.com/bv2uP8tZ It says that there's a 0.8% chance for the average of Group D EPT points to be 297 points or greater than the averages of the other groups. 0.8% chance for group D or Maru's group? cause "Group D" doesn't actually mean anything and Maru himself brings a bunch of points with him so his group is naturally a bit higher since ESL doesn't give any advantage to the #1 seed | ||
warnull
United States280 Posts
On January 30 2022 06:26 Die4Ever wrote: 0.8% chance for group D or Maru's group? cause "Group D" doesn't actually mean anything and Maru himself brings a bunch of points with him so his group is naturally a bit higher since ESL doesn't give any advantage to the #1 seed it's 0.8% for the group with the highest points | ||
Die4Ever
United States17430 Posts
On January 30 2022 06:33 warnull wrote: it's 0.8% for the group with the highest points so it's even lower for Maru then | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
Yes I can try constructing that simulation but I think your intuition will be correct. On the other hand, Maru having the most points and the tier system will tend to make his group the one with the most points anyway. I would add that the tier with the biggest skew is tier 3 though. The gap between Reynor and HeroMarine is the single biggest gap between adjacent players. | ||
tommey.liang
United States354 Posts
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Nakajin
Canada8758 Posts
On January 30 2022 06:39 honorablemacroterran wrote: Yes I can try constructing that simulation but I think your intuition will be correct. On the other hand, Maru having the most points and the tier system will tend to make his group the one with the most points anyway. Unless I'm crazy it can only be a Maru group since the 297 is the maximum amount -65 (dif between Dream and Zoun) and Maru has almost 250 point over Rogue in second place | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On January 30 2022 06:55 Nakajin wrote: Unless I'm crazy it can only be a Maru group since the 297 is the maximum amount -65 (dif between Dream and Zoun) and Maru has almost 250 point over Rogue in second place I updated that post. I think where Reynor gets placed also has a big impact because he's 9th and there's a big gap between him and HeroMarine too. | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
Here's what the distribution looks like, by the way. The red line is what actually happened. | ||
[Phantom]
Mexico2169 Posts
For me the worst part of it though is that i'ts going to be all ZvT after the ground stages again, no doubt. | ||
deacon.frost
Czech Republic12115 Posts
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JJH777
United States4276 Posts
Also, regardless of whether it's actually rigged or not a big reason I mention it is because it should be part of a players legacy. The fact that Serral has only ever had a single tournament where he played top players from start to finish should be counted when people are talking about his dominance/results. I don't know of any other top player who consistently gets easy paths like Serral. Even ones who have won less. | ||
RogerChillingworth
2698 Posts
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honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On January 30 2022 09:27 JJH777 wrote: The foreigners get easier brackets/groups conspiracy has been going on since at least 2011. In most cases it's just chance and even though I often call it out I know that most tournaments aren't rigged in that way and it really did just happen by chance but I do believe there have been tournaments where an organizer rolled the groups or bracket an extra time to get the matchups they wanted. It's hard to know which is which. Also, regardless of whether it's actually rigged or not a big reason I mention it is because it should be part of a players legacy. The fact that Serral has only ever had a single tournament where he played top players from start to finish should be counted when people are talking about his dominance/results. I don't know of any other top player who consistently gets easy paths like Serral. Even ones who have won less. I don't think the main story here is about foreigners vs Koreans. I think it's about everyone in Group D having a significantly harder group than everyone else. Most players in Group D are actually foreigners. | ||
bela.mervado
Hungary334 Posts
thanks for the problem (while i let the whisky settle a bit) it is aktchually 1.17% (probability for the max EPT sum group to have no less than 10056 points, uniform draws per tiers). there are 3 of those scores, this current 10056, 10072 (Neeb+Dream) and the max 10122 (Nakajin: confirm, all these has Maru) i have assigned the first 4 players a group id (it is just a labeling for an extra * 4! which we dont care about ) the rest can be computed, we only have (4!)^4 = 331776 cases. these 3 scores each account for (3!)^4=1296 cases, so we have 3*1296/331776. sorry for my gnuplot skills | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On January 30 2022 11:45 bela.mervado wrote: oh hai thanks for the problem (while i let the whisky settle a bit) it is aktchually 1.17% (probability for the max EPT sum group to have no less than 10056 points, uniform draws per tiers). there are 3 of those scores, this current 10056, 10072 (Neeb+Dream) and the max 10122 (Nakajin: confirm, all these has Maru) i have assigned the first 4 players a group id (it is just a labeling for an extra * 4! which we dont care about ) the rest can be computed, we only have (4!)^4 = 331776 cases. these 3 scores each account for (3!)^4=1296 cases, so we have 3*1296/331776. sorry for my gnuplot skills I think you're getting a different answer because you're asking a slightly different question, tbh. Edit: Actually, you're right. I figured out that I had slightly overestimated the difference in averages as 297.33 instead of 297.13, and there's about 0.3%-0.4% of probability mass between those two. | ||
Balnazza
Germany667 Posts
As far as I can see, the groups got drawn in packs of four, right? 1 player from Top 4, 1 player from Top 8/12/16/20. Yes, Group D is a group of death, but that just happens. There is always some "weirdness" happening with draws, but that doesn't mean it is rigged. I also don't get how people think Serral "always has easy draws". Last year at Kattowice he had Dark and Innovation. Bad draws like that happen...if you want to avoid that, you probably had to put in some kind of seeding. Just for the lolz - lets do a seeding, where we start in Group A with 1st and just go right: Group A: Maru - Zest - Reynor - SpeCial - Dream Group B: Rogue - Cure - Heromarine - Bunny - Zoun Group C: Trap - Dark -Solar - Neeb - Showtime Group D: Serral - Clem - TIME - Scarlett - Lambo (yes, I know, the flaw in this system is that the "weakest" player (Lambo) gets seeded into the 4th players group...it gets balanced out after you seed the PlayIn Top 4 into it) Is it just me or does Marus group still look really strong while Serrals probably got a bit easier? And we still have a group with four koreans, while we also got one with none. And this is technically a "fair" seeding without any randomness. | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On January 30 2022 12:02 Balnazza wrote: I don't get what people complain about tbh. As far as I can see, the groups got drawn in packs of four, right? 1 player from Top 4, 1 player from Top 8/12/16/20. Yes, Group D is a group of death, but that just happens. There is always some "weirdness" happening with draws, but that doesn't mean it is rigged. I also don't get how people think Serral "always has easy draws". Last year at Kattowice he had Dark and Innovation. Bad draws like that happen...if you want to avoid that, you probably had to put in some kind of seeding. Just for the lolz - lets do a seeding, where we start in Group A with 1st and just go right: Group A: Maru - Zest - Reynor - SpeCial - Dream Group B: Rogue - Cure - Heromarine - Bunny - Zoun Group C: Trap - Dark -Solar - Neeb - Showtime Group D: Serral - Clem - TIME - Scarlett - Lambo (yes, I know, the flaw in this system is that the "weakest" player (Lambo) gets seeded into the 4th players group...it gets balanced out after you seed the PlayIn Top 4 into it) Is it just me or does Marus group still look really strong while Serrals probably got a bit easier? And we still have a group with four koreans, while we also got one with none. And this is technically a "fair" seeding without any randomness. Pls check the actual statistics on the group draws that Bela and myself did. You seem to be completely ignoring the points and going by your gut on what you think looks stronger or weaker. Also, I think a lot of people would disagree with the idea that a group with Clem is easier for Serral. | ||
Pandain
United States12857 Posts
On January 30 2022 12:02 Balnazza wrote: I don't get what people complain about tbh. As far as I can see, the groups got drawn in packs of four, right? 1 player from Top 4, 1 player from Top 8/12/16/20. Yes, Group D is a group of death, but that just happens. There is always some "weirdness" happening with draws, but that doesn't mean it is rigged. I also don't get how people think Serral "always has easy draws". Last year at Kattowice he had Dark and Innovation. Bad draws like that happen...if you want to avoid that, you probably had to put in some kind of seeding. Just for the lolz - lets do a seeding, where we start in Group A with 1st and just go right: Group A: Maru - Zest - Reynor - SpeCial - Dream Group B: Rogue - Cure - Heromarine - Bunny - Zoun Group C: Trap - Dark -Solar - Neeb - Showtime Group D: Serral - Clem - TIME - Scarlett - Lambo (yes, I know, the flaw in this system is that the "weakest" player (Lambo) gets seeded into the 4th players group...it gets balanced out after you seed the PlayIn Top 4 into it) Is it just me or does Marus group still look really strong while Serrals probably got a bit easier? And we still have a group with four koreans, while we also got one with none. And this is technically a "fair" seeding without any randomness. Yeah 100%. | ||
bela.mervado
Hungary334 Posts
I would love to see a live group draw ceremony, it could be a good show. maybe not as nice as GSL group selection, but there could be some casters, discussing the groups as they are forming, they could use a real dice to draw players in turns. a live show would take away most of the doubts about seeding. they could do stupid things like make it look like a card or poker game (I know Rotti is into that thing) where players to be selected would represent cards in the casters' mini games, whatever. | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
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JJH777
United States4276 Posts
The fact that in 11 years of SC2 GSL is one of the only events to do that is dumb. | ||
Balnazza
Germany667 Posts
On January 30 2022 12:16 honorablemacroterran wrote: Pls check the actual statistics on the group draws that Bela and myself did. You seem to be completely ignoring the points and going by your gut on what you think looks stronger or weaker. Also, I think a lot of people would disagree with the idea that a group with Clem is easier for Serral. I will be honest: Math is just not my strong point. I tried to follow it, but it wasn't working for me - not saying you or Bela are wrong though. But the one thing I do know about statistic is, that it isn't absolute. The chance to win the jackpot is incredibly low - yet it still happens rather frequently. Weirder things have happened. I've seen Hearthstone RNG that went down in the 0,00X%... I would disagree however that I "went by my gut". The groups I mentioned are based on EPT points, so basically groups without any draw, just pure seeding. It is not what I think is stronger or weaker, it is what the points dictate. And overall I don't think the groups look that different compared to the ones we actually got. Because in the end, the difference between the 5th player (Clem) and the 8th player (Zest) is not that big, even though they have 600 points between them. On paper, either one of them looks strong in a group. Though you might be right, Clem is a harder opponent for Serral, but in the end, it doesn't really matter. Either way (actual draw vs. "my" seeding) Serral is in a group that he easily should come out of, while Maru is still in a group that could go bad for one of the big three. I would agree however with some comments that I really don't get why SC2 draws are always done in private. For example, I really enjoy the group-draws before the LoL Worlds. But correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that kind of an ESL thing to not show draws? I don't watch much Counterstrike, but I'm sure I've never seen a group draw in any shape or form in it. | ||
tigera6
2898 Posts
+Among all tier 1 ranker, Trap is falling flat in recent months, so much that I think he would struggle to beat any tier 3 players. So anyone falling in Trap group are generally happy about it. +All tier 2 players have pretty much the same impact, so it should not matter who goes where. +Reynor is a borderline Tier 1 player, the fact that hes falling down to Tier 3 meaning that whoever getting him into the group would already be on the way to be the "Group of Death". +The rest of the lower tiers are pretty much similar in term of potential and impact, but that also depending on the matchup Having said that, the fact that they got pretty much the same group B from last year IEM make me raise my eyebrown, not because is an "easy" group or anything, but really the process behind it. | ||
DarkGamer
Germany294 Posts
On a side-note: i played "kings" last year. Its a game where u roll the dice two times. to get two times a six has a probability of 1/36. i got this 3 rounds after another! this has a probability of 1/46656. all my friends laughed and accused me of cheating, but i didnt. I think probabilities are deceptive sometimes! | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On January 30 2022 15:39 DarkGamer wrote: I like these groups because every race is represented and there are very good match ups coming for us On a side-note: i played "kings" last year. Its a game where u roll the dice two times. to get two times a six has a probability of 1/36. i got this 3 rounds after another! this has a probability of 1/46656. all my friends laughed and accused me of cheating, but i didnt. I think probabilities are deceptive sometimes! The probability is 1/36 every time though. It's not really comparable to this situation. Sounds like you fell into what's called the "Gambler's Fallacy." | ||
DarkGamer
Germany294 Posts
On January 30 2022 15:46 honorablemacroterran wrote: The probability is 1/36 every time though. It's not really comparable to this situation. Sounds like you fell into what's called the "Gambler's Fallacy." ??? the probability to roll the dice after another becomes less likely: first time: 1/36 two times in a row 1/36 x 1/36 three times in a row 1/36 x 1/36 x 1 /36 this is basic math in school and is right. of course its always 1/36 to throw two times a six, but its not to do it 3 times in a row! | ||
parksonsc
173 Posts
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Waxangel
United States32477 Posts
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swarminfestor
Malaysia2298 Posts
On January 30 2022 16:36 parksonsc wrote: This looks like an easy group for Maru. The only threat would be Zoun. Yeah you can say Clem and Reynor are good but Maru will stomp them anyway. Not an easy bracket for Clem and Reynor, but unsurprisingly lucky bracket for Serral over the years. | ||
FCHK
160 Posts
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M3t4PhYzX
Poland3764 Posts
this shouldn't be a hard thing to do at all. | ||
M3t4PhYzX
Poland3764 Posts
On January 30 2022 08:50 deacon.frost wrote: Two years in a row(and that's just what I remember) with this conspiracy. Is it really that hard to record the process and show the video there's no conspiracy involved? exactly.. this should be a commonplace already in the world of e-sports.. it's kinda ridiculous that it isn't tbh | ||
DBYSerral
1 Post
王者归来! | ||
deacon.frost
Czech Republic12115 Posts
On January 30 2022 14:24 Balnazza wrote: I will be honest: Math is just not my strong point. I tried to follow it, but it wasn't working for me - not saying you or Bela are wrong though. But the one thing I do know about statistic is, that it isn't absolute. The chance to win the jackpot is incredibly low - yet it still happens rather frequently. Weirder things have happened. I've seen Hearthstone RNG that went down in the 0,00X%... I would disagree however that I "went by my gut". The groups I mentioned are based on EPT points, so basically groups without any draw, just pure seeding. It is not what I think is stronger or weaker, it is what the points dictate. And overall I don't think the groups look that different compared to the ones we actually got. Because in the end, the difference between the 5th player (Clem) and the 8th player (Zest) is not that big, even though they have 600 points between them. On paper, either one of them looks strong in a group. Though you might be right, Clem is a harder opponent for Serral, but in the end, it doesn't really matter. Either way (actual draw vs. "my" seeding) Serral is in a group that he easily should come out of, while Maru is still in a group that could go bad for one of the big three. I would agree however with some comments that I really don't get why SC2 draws are always done in private. For example, I really enjoy the group-draws before the LoL Worlds. But correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that kind of an ESL thing to not show draws? I don't watch much Counterstrike, but I'm sure I've never seen a group draw in any shape or form in it. The fuck is this logic? You realise this isn't the first time this come into discussion? And this isn't a jackpot situation per se, because you keep ignoring how many times they have to do the drawing and how many people have to take a part to actually get the winner of the jackpot. But in here we have a situation where people complain about the groups EVERY. DAMN. TIME. So while weirder things have happen, they don't tend to happen with this frequency. The frequency is the thing that people question the most and you graciously ignore it Edit> the most pathetic thing is that all it takes is 5 or 10 minutes of few people life on a camera and then presenting the video. | ||
Nakajin
Canada8758 Posts
On January 30 2022 19:54 deacon.frost wrote: The fuck is this logic? You realise this isn't the first time this come into discussion? And this isn't a jackpot situation per se, because you keep ignoring how many times they have to do the drawing and how many people have to take a part to actually get the winner of the jackpot. But in here we have a situation where people complain about the groups EVERY. DAMN. TIME. So while weirder things have happen, they don't tend to happen with this frequency. The frequency is the thing that people question the most and you graciously ignore it Edit> the most pathetic thing is that all it takes is 5 or 10 minutes of few people life on a camera and then presenting the video. People complain about the groups because they want to complain, not necessarely because weird things happen They would have complain if the second player of Serral group was either Dark, Clem, Cure or Zest, if the last player was Lambo instead of Showtime, if Heromarine replaced Time, or if Neeb or Bunny replaced Special. The proportion combinaison that would make people complain about Serral group is very big. I'd be more suspicious if anyone had an oppinion on the groups of like Heromarine or Bunny in the last few years, they would be impacted too if the draw was righed, except no one see it weird cause no one ever look at their groups in an effort to find a pattern. Making a live draw would probably solve some of the problems, but I wouldn't hold my breath, aren't we still using Trap Jin-Air picture? Anyhow, that enough for me. The long wait for Kato begging, we'll restart this conversation once herO get put in group D! | ||
Pandain
United States12857 Posts
If anything, this is the worst group for Serral, because there's now an extremely decent chance he loses the #1 Ro8 spot to Dark, which wouldn't exist if you had switched him for any of the other tier-1 seeds. TLDR: Serral was always making Ro12, so this group is actually the worst because he could conceivably lose the Ro8 spot to Dark in a way that's more realistic than losing to Clem, Cure, Zest. But people love to complain. | ||
Balnazza
Germany667 Posts
On January 30 2022 19:54 deacon.frost wrote: The fuck is this logic? You realise this isn't the first time this come into discussion? And this isn't a jackpot situation per se, because you keep ignoring how many times they have to do the drawing and how many people have to take a part to actually get the winner of the jackpot. But in here we have a situation where people complain about the groups EVERY. DAMN. TIME. So while weirder things have happen, they don't tend to happen with this frequency. The frequency is the thing that people question the most and you graciously ignore it Edit> the most pathetic thing is that all it takes is 5 or 10 minutes of few people life on a camera and then presenting the video. I think people complain about germanys luck in draws in the football world cup for how many years by now? Somehow we always get an easier group, weird. I think last EURO was the first time in ages we had a group with actually two other good nations...what are the chances for that? In the end, on paper you cannot balance this groups right. Because Reynor looks too strong for Tier 3, but he is by points. Switch him with any of the other ones (Heromarine, Solar, TIME), suddenly the group he is in looks too strong. So I would love to see people come up with a group draw that looks balanced...and then tell me how likely it is to get that one single draw that is "balanced" compared to the countless variations that is not balanced. | ||
dysenterymd
1049 Posts
EPT points is probably a dumb way of seeding the tournament, I think it's fine for deciding the T1 players but the differences in strength between the regions makes it pretty questionable further down the seeding process. I'm not sure what the best alternative would be, we don't have any more "objective" alternative. | ||
Poopi
France12463 Posts
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Xain0n
Italy3963 Posts
The conspiracy theories are pathetic as usual tho. | ||
Pandain
United States12857 Posts
On January 30 2022 23:45 Poopi wrote: I don't think people are complaining about Serral group being too easy, more so that group D is so hard for virtually no reason, and not only because Maru is in it. Hopefully they don't readjust groups for mean EPT points with ro36 qualified players, because herO might make it an even more absurd group seeing how few points he has with still a high chance to qualify There's plenty of people complaining that the Serral group is too easy, mostly that it's *rigged* for him. The spoilered below is just a snippet. + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2022 09:27 JJH777 wrote: The foreigners get easier brackets/groups conspiracy has been going on since at least 2011. In most cases it's just chance and even though I often call it out I know that most tournaments aren't rigged in that way and it really did just happen by chance but I do believe there have been tournaments where an organizer rolled the groups or bracket an extra time to get the matchups they wanted. It's hard to know which is which. Also, regardless of whether it's actually rigged or not a big reason I mention it is because it should be part of a players legacy. The fact that Serral has only ever had a single tournament where he played top players from start to finish should be counted when people are talking about his dominance/results. I don't know of any other top player who consistently gets easy paths like Serral. Even ones who have won less. On January 30 2022 03:22 Vindicare605 wrote: How the hell does Group B (and it's ALWAYS Serral's groups) have only one Korean player in it, but Group A has 4? On January 30 2022 04:05 Durnuu wrote: It's an ESL tournament and Apollo is part of ESL. Need I say more? Also, to be frank, Group B is definitely the easiest group overall in terms of making it to Ro12, but I'm not sure I'm 100% convinced that Group D is *meaningfully* harder than Groups A and C. Like, especially with Reynor and Clem's recent struggles, do you really think that Maru/Clem/Reynor is more difficult than Rogue/Cure/Solar? Or Trap/Zest/Bunny? I think it's definitely more hype because there's a bunch of beloved foreigners all duking int out - but in terms of a pure power level, even if I actually agreed its the most difficult group, it's definitely not by that much. | ||
JJH777
United States4276 Posts
If you swap him with Rogue or Maru into their groups and the right player comes in from the ro36 (say DRG?) There's absolutely a chance he could be eliminated. It's low but if you played either of those hypothetical groups out 10 times he'd definitely lose out to some combination of DRG/Solar/Cure/Dream or Reynor/Clem/Zoun/DRG at least 1-2 times each group. | ||
Pandain
United States12857 Posts
On January 31 2022 01:29 JJH777 wrote: The idea that Serral could never be eliminated in an IEM group so the only thing that matters is how easy it is for him to get first meaning this is actually a hard group is such a Serral fanboy thing to say mere weeks after he was eliminated in a premier group stage by DRG of all players. Dream barely didn't do it too. If you swap him with Rogue or Maru into their groups and the right player comes in from the ro36 (say DRG?) There's absolutely a chance he could be eliminated. It's low but if you played either of those hypothetical groups out 10 times he'd definitely lose out to some combination of DRG/Solar/Cure/Dream or Reynor/Clem/Zoun/DRG at least 1-2 times each group. Even assuming everything you said (or implied) was true, you would still be 100% wrong. If, as you say, Serral still gets out of any group at least 80% of the time, then the much more interesting (and important) question would be whether he is going to get out in first. And as said above by many individuals, him being in a group with Dark is therefore the worst group for that outcome. + Show Spoiler + But I will say, by the way, that there's also probably a 10-20% chance that Rogue doesn't make it out of the group, or one of Trap/Zest doesn't make it out of the group. Rogue because he's Rogue and Trap/Zest tbh got really bad groups because Lambo has shown great success against them and Heromarine's TvP has been his best, esp. against Koreans, and Bunny is absolutely no slouch and can play top-tier at times.) | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17430 Posts
On January 31 2022 01:52 Acrofales wrote: Trap and Zest in the same group with Trap's recent shape, I kind of expect him to get last place in the group | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
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dysenterymd
1049 Posts
On January 31 2022 04:33 honorablemacroterran wrote: I don't know how people are saying that a group that has Dark and the lowest total EPT points is the worst possible for Serral when there's a group with Clem and Reynor in the 2nd and 3rd slots. I want to be clear that I don't think the draw was rigged for Serral, but come on. If Serral were in Maru's slot I bet they'd be saying it's rigged against him. Actually, I'm pretty sure that the same people would be complaining and calling it foreigner favoritism so the big 3 can dodge top Koreans and make the bracket. While I'm sure you can find a few people over the years claiming things are rigged against Serral, it's pretty obvious where the lion's share of deranged claims of rigging are coming from. | ||
tilhorizon
Germany191 Posts
clem is historical not that good vs koreans and reynor is on a long slump you have 4 favorites to win the tournament maru/serral/rogue/dark 2 of them are in group b the tournament winner will be decided on single elimination bracket and the current shape of the players the importance of group seeding is a bit overrated | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On January 31 2022 11:21 tilhorizon wrote: stop whining about group d clem is historical not that good vs koreans and reynor is on a long slump you have 4 favorites to win the tournament maru/serral/rogue/dark 2 of them are in group b the tournament winner will be decided on single elimination bracket and the current shape of the players the importance of group seeding is a bit overrated The group outcomes lead to the single elimination seeding though. | ||
RKC
2847 Posts
On January 31 2022 04:52 dysenterymd wrote: Actually, I'm pretty sure that the same people would be complaining and calling it foreigner favoritism so the big 3 can dodge top Koreans and make the bracket. While I'm sure you can find a few people over the years claiming things are rigged against Serral, it's pretty obvious where the lion's share of deranged claims of rigging are coming from. Depends on the era and skill level of foreigners. During WoL and HoTS, there were hardly any foreigners in Top 3-5. So any group stacked with foreigners with lowly Koreans seem to be aimed at ensuring a foreigner to advance. Now, the context is different. Serral is a proven success story and Top 3. So getting an 'easier' group seems to be aimed at guaranteeing him advancement. In both situations, there's a case to be made that the groups seem to be engineered to maximise foreigner chances of success. Not saying that it's true either way. Just explaining how groups can be 'rigged' in different ways depending on different circumstances. So there's no inconsistency in both types of claims. P.S. I greatly doubt that people will raise concerns of the groups being rigged to favour foreigners if, say, all top foreigners (Serral, Reynor, Clem) are placed in a group of death. Most likely Reynor and Clem fans will be peeved and raise a ruckus. | ||
Gina
241 Posts
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graceshova
4 Posts
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graceshova
4 Posts
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deacon.frost
Czech Republic12115 Posts
On January 30 2022 22:04 Nakajin wrote: People complain about the groups because they want to complain, not necessarely because weird things happen They would have complain if the second player of Serral group was either Dark, Clem, Cure or Zest, if the last player was Lambo instead of Showtime, if Heromarine replaced Time, or if Neeb or Bunny replaced Special. The proportion combinaison that would make people complain about Serral group is very big. I'd be more suspicious if anyone had an oppinion on the groups of like Heromarine or Bunny in the last few years, they would be impacted too if the draw was righed, except no one see it weird cause no one ever look at their groups in an effort to find a pattern. Making a live draw would probably solve some of the problems, but I wouldn't hold my breath, aren't we still using Trap Jin-Air picture? Anyhow, that enough for me. The long wait for Kato begging, we'll restart this conversation once herO get put in group D! It doesn't have to be live, it just had to produce uncut video. That's everything. People complain because it is being done behind a curtain. Remove the curtain and people will stop complaining. It's just laziness on the ESL part. THey are creating the groups so let us show the process. (maybe there's a reason to not show the process and I am more talking about low effort rather than conspiracy ) | ||
Gina
241 Posts
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Fango
United Kingdom8797 Posts
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Poopi
France12463 Posts
On February 01 2022 01:59 Fango wrote: Damn Maru is the number 1 seed and I actually don't think he'll make it out of the group. Yeah if he loses to Zoun again, gets beaten by Clem (bo3 anything can happen) and by either Reynor or herO (let's be realistic, given how stacked group D already is, they gonna send the best ro36 player in it for giggles), which is realistic as well, he might not qualify. I think he has a decent shot though | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
On February 01 2022 03:13 honorablemacroterran wrote: I don't think there's a real risk of Maru not making it out of the group, but it will definitely be harder for him than most of the other top seeds despite him being #1. Usually, the higher your seed, the easier your path, but in this case it's the opposite. You think Maru has it harder than Trap? Or for that matter, Rogue? I mean... Maru in Trap's group would definitely crush the whole thing. But it's far from an easy group for Trap. The only first seed with an actual easy group is Serral, although I expect him to lose to Dark (they'll both beat everybody else, though). | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On February 01 2022 03:52 Acrofales wrote: You think Maru has it harder than Trap? Or for that matter, Rogue? I mean... Maru in Trap's group would definitely crush the whole thing. But it's far from an easy group for Trap. The only first seed with an actual easy group is Serral, although I expect him to lose to Dark (they'll both beat everybody else, though). Yeah, Maru has the hardest group. I think it would be fairer to solve for the groups that minimize the variance of the total points across the groups. Edit: I didn't actually exhaust the problem space or do a real solver, but I ran my simulator a few times and this seems to be close to the minimum variance groups as I suggested above: {'a': ['Serral', 'Clem', 'TIME', 'Scarlett', 'Zoun'], 'b': ['Maru', 'Dark', 'Solar', 'Special', 'Showtime'], 'c': ['Rogue', 'Zest', 'HeroMarine', 'Neeb', 'Dream'], 'd': ['Trap', 'Cure', 'Reynor', 'Bunny', 'Lambo']} The variance of this configuration is 173.1875, whereas the variance of the actual groups is 453,794.1875 The group point totals would be thus: a 8960 b 8940 c 8923 d 8944 To me, this not only looks obviously fairer, but also more interesting. I have relatively little interest in watching the actual Group B tbh. Interestingly, it also distributed the Koreans and the foreigners more evenly as well. | ||
bela.mervado
Hungary334 Posts
444.75 8951 Maru,T,3185 Zest,P,1976 Solar,Z,1369 Scarlett,Z,1315 Zoun,P,1106 8924 Rogue,Z,2937 Dark,Z,2397 Heromarine,T,1573 Neeb,P,1265 Showtime,P,752 8944 Trap,P,2897 Cure,T,2153 Reynor,Z,1914 Bunny,T,1240 Lambo,Z,740 8948 Serral,Z,2670 Clem,T,2536 Time,T,1333 Special,T,1237 Dream,T,1172 | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On February 01 2022 07:17 bela.mervado wrote: isn't this what you are looking for? 444.75 8951 Maru,T,3185 Zest,P,1976 Solar,Z,1369 Scarlett,Z,1315 Zoun,P,1106 8924 Rogue,Z,2937 Dark,Z,2397 Heromarine,T,1573 Neeb,P,1265 Showtime,P,752 8944 Trap,P,2897 Cure,T,2153 Reynor,Z,1914 Bunny,T,1240 Lambo,Z,740 8948 Serral,Z,2670 Clem,T,2536 Time,T,1333 Special,T,1237 Dream,T,1172 Yes but I think the variance is 111.1875 not 444.75? | ||
bela.mervado
Hungary334 Posts
uhh this line looks ugly i keep it | ||
honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On February 01 2022 07:29 bela.mervado wrote: yes this is just the sum of square of gr sum pts diff from avg uhh this line looks ugly i keep it May I ask what you are using to do your analysis? Would you mind sharing the source code? | ||
bela.mervado
Hungary334 Posts
of course, here you are a bit messy g++ wat.cc ./a.out | ||
Poopi
France12463 Posts
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honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On February 01 2022 08:12 Poopi wrote: Are these proposals using the rules in place ie. tiers / buckets of 4 players? But without random draw Yes it is solving for the minimum variance possible under the existing rules, without random draws. | ||
Poopi
France12463 Posts
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honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On February 01 2022 08:38 Poopi wrote: I think random draws is fine / can add hype, and too low variance would be boring if favorites had very good shot of advancing. But they should make their process public so people don’t think rigged I think that loading the most hype matches into the Group of Death is actually bad for overall viewership tbh and makes the other groups less hype. I think the groups posted by myself and Bela are legitimately more interesting and the outcomes are less certain across more of the groups. | ||
Vindicare605
United States15705 Posts
On February 01 2022 09:42 honorablemacroterran wrote: I think that loading the most hype matches into the Group of Death is actually bad for overall viewership tbh and makes the other groups less hype. I think the groups posted by myself and Bela are legitimately more interesting and the outcomes are less certain across more of the groups. It almost guarantees an underwhelming Ro4 or Ro8 because all of the good matches are decided early on in Bo3s in the group matches. BTW all of this mess is going to look way worse if the rumors about the Chinese players having major Visa issues is true because that means some other low ranked player will get bumped up to Group B in place of TIME and that will only make the disparity in that group vs the others even MORE apparent. | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
On February 01 2022 07:17 bela.mervado wrote: isn't this what you are looking for? 444.75 8951 Maru,T,3185 Zest,P,1976 Solar,Z,1369 Scarlett,Z,1315 Zoun,P,1106 8924 Rogue,Z,2937 Dark,Z,2397 Heromarine,T,1573 Neeb,P,1265 Showtime,P,752 8944 Trap,P,2897 Cure,T,2153 Reynor,Z,1914 Bunny,T,1240 Lambo,Z,740 8948 Serral,Z,2670 Clem,T,2536 Time,T,1333 Special,T,1237 Dream,T,1172 How is this better? Group A: interesting fight for 2nd place between Zest, Solar and Zoun. Maru all but guaranteed through unless he somehow loses to Protoss. Group B: Rogue vs Dark for the billionth time this year. Heromarine with an outside chance of causing an upset. Group C: interesting. Group D: Serral has an even easier group. Sure, you trade one angstgegner for another, but the rest still can't touch him. Clem has to TvT a bunch, so he should be comfortably second, but either Dream or Time can surprise. Vs the actual groups: Group A: interesting fight for 2nd place between Solar, Cure and Dream. Rogue all but guaranteed unless he decided to leave his A-game at home. Group B: Serral and Dark should stomp this. Only question is who is #1. Group C: interesting. Group D: interesting fight for second place. If Maru has an off day it's even possible that he falls to Clem, Zoun and/or Reynor. Unlikely given current forms. Seems like a lot of effort for no significant gain. | ||
RKC
2847 Posts
Putting all the top players in the same group or bracket will definitely guarantee more big clashes. Whether it generates more hype is debatable because casual viewers are more drawn towards the advanced stages by default. Speaking for myself, I'm not going to purposely tune in a group match just because it's a group of death. I plan to watch the knockout rounds simply because it's most certainly guaranteed to have the top players on form clashing. But if it turns out (hypothetically) that the final four is Serral against three other underdogs (because Maru, Rogue, Dark, and Reynor got knocked out earlier due to bad bracket luck and stacked groups), I won't bother watching at all.* * Of course, I would watch if the underdog is truly on form and deserving of advancing by beating the top players (and not fluked through by luck of the draw). | ||
deacon.frost
Czech Republic12115 Posts
On January 31 2022 20:59 Gina wrote: They might not be using a nice-looking draw like bits of paper out of a hat, but just put the names and points into a program and get the groups. I know my friends running Go tournaments had software for that sort of thing. So there may not be anything to show on video. That would be what? 30 seconds video? So why not show it? I mean there's literally no reason to not show it. You're not competing for views or to be interesting, you're doing it so you stop these stupid conspiracy theories. | ||
Schelim
Austria11523 Posts
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warnull
United States280 Posts
On February 01 2022 19:02 deacon.frost wrote: That would be what? 30 seconds video? So why not show it? I mean there's literally no reason to not show it. You're not competing for views or to be interesting, you're doing it so you stop these stupid conspiracy theories. IMO there's no such conspiracy theory. The only people that claim grievances with the seeding method are select individuals in this TL thread. ESL shouldn't waste production resources catering those people. I would rather see more player interviews. | ||
deacon.frost
Czech Republic12115 Posts
On February 01 2022 19:47 warnull wrote: IMO there's no such conspiracy theory. The only people that claim grievances with the seeding method are select individuals in this TL thread. ESL shouldn't waste production resources catering those people. I would rather see more player interviews. From my point of view they're not wasting resources. The admins most probably have webcams and/or are capable of recording their desktop. Nobody's asking to have a show. At the same I, personally, would be fine to know how the process was handled. Is it pure chaos? Some rules were applied? I would love to know how they do this. | ||
Circumstance
United States11403 Posts
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t5Fab
177 Posts
- the best player of rank 1 - the best player of rank 2 - the best player of rank 3 - the best player of rank 4 - the second best player of rank 5 The unbalance seems very easy to spot to me... | ||
MdarkKreller
United States4 Posts
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honorablemacroterran
188 Posts
On February 01 2022 16:32 Acrofales wrote: How is this better? Group A: interesting fight for 2nd place between Zest, Solar and Zoun. Maru all but guaranteed through unless he somehow loses to Protoss. Group B: Rogue vs Dark for the billionth time this year. Heromarine with an outside chance of causing an upset. Group C: interesting. Group D: Serral has an even easier group. Sure, you trade one angstgegner for another, but the rest still can't touch him. Clem has to TvT a bunch, so he should be comfortably second, but either Dream or Time can surprise. Vs the actual groups: Group A: interesting fight for 2nd place between Solar, Cure and Dream. Rogue all but guaranteed unless he decided to leave his A-game at home. Group B: Serral and Dark should stomp this. Only question is who is #1. Group C: interesting. Group D: interesting fight for second place. If Maru has an off day it's even possible that he falls to Clem, Zoun and/or Reynor. Unlikely given current forms. Seems like a lot of effort for no significant gain. It's really not that much effort and the reason for doing it is that it's fairer. | ||
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