UPDATE

The following can also be found on Liquipedia at User:CynicalDeath/sandbox/2. (The display varies a bit, but the information is the same as of 2020-12-10, we will update that page though!)

Mathematically qualified to the Ro24

KR

TY
Rogue
Maru
Stats (possibly military???)
INnoVation
Trap
Zest (possibly military???)
Cure (Cure can theoretically still not qualify via the KR Standings, but in that case he is mathematically safe to qualify to the Ro24 via the Combined Standings.)

Reynor
Serral
Clem

LatAm

SpeCial

TIME

Mathematically qualified to the Ro36, but can still qualify to the Ro24

KR

PartinG
Dark
Solar
DongRaeGu
Armani

Big Gabe
ShoWTimE

Astrea
Neeb

Qualified to the Ro36

Asia

Nice
Has

At the moment in a Ro36 seed and can still qualify to Ro24

KR

Elazer

Scarlett

At the moment in Ro36 seeds

KR

Dream
Hurricane
Bunny
RagnaroK

uThermal

LatAm

Kelazhur

Probe

Can (theoretically) still qualify

KR (only Koreans listed)
ByuN*, Zoun, Patience, TaeJa, Creator, Bomber, Prince, Spear, NaTuRal, Super, kiwian

EU
Lambo*, MaNa*, MarineLorD, PtitDrogo, SKillous, Gerald, Vanya, Denver, souL, Bly, Hellraiser, Harstem, Stephano

NA
Future

LatAm, CN and OC
Everyone from these regions can theoretically still qualify for the Ro36. But one is safe to assume that none of these players will achieve many points from the DHM Last Chance event nor win many ESL Open Cups, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

*: has a somewhat realistic chance

Combined Standings Shenanigans
Apart from several Koreans theoretically the following 3 players could also still qualify to the Ro24 via the Combined Standing Shenanigans:

HeRoMaRinE
ShoWTimE
Elazer

For more information take a look at our Combined Standings page: (Wiki)

ESL Pro Tour/2020/21/Standings/Combined

Harris1st

Germany4594 Posts

December 10 2020 13:28 GMT

#62

Since there is no LR thread yet

+ Show Spoiler +

Protoss OP confirmed:
Parting 3:0 TY
Stats 3:2 Inno
Trap 3:0 Maru

Don't take it too serious

ilax30

720 Posts

December 10 2020 14:18 GMT

#63

Damn, Bunny qualifying after wins over Byun and Maru, thats big

Shathe

Hungary364 Posts

December 10 2020 18:32 GMT

#64

Still disgusted by the fact that ST1 didnt yield points.

Harris1st

Germany4594 Posts

December 11 2020 08:52 GMT

#65

On December 11 2020 03:32 Shathe wrote:
Still disgusted by the fact that ST1 didnt yield points.

Might have gotten Dark and Solar that Ro24 seed secured but other than that, I don't see any real changes?

hjpalpha

Germany254 Posts

December 11 2020 16:21 GMT

#66

On December 11 2020 17:52 Harris1st wrote:

Show nested quote +

Might have gotten Dark and Solar that Ro24 seed secured but other than that, I don't see any real changes?

The orig rules had it so that everyone that played in ST1 would have gotten points, EXCEPT the top4, they were supposed to only get the invite to GSL S1

So for Dark and Solar it would have had a negative effect, not a positive one.

dbRic1203

Germany2012 Posts

December 11 2020 18:01 GMT

#67

On December 12 2020 01:21 hjpalpha wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yeah, but the originall rules were the dumbest thing ever seen, so I gues Harris was referring to a "normal" standart, reasonable point allocation, similar to ST 2. IMO that would have been way way WAY better than both what is in place now and what was suggested first..

hjpalpha

Germany254 Posts

December 18 2020 10:15 GMT

#68

UPDATE

As you can see in the below attached Screenshot we now have mathematically secured the Ro24 seeds (all under the assumption Zest and Stats can play of course), including the extra Seed from the Combined Standings that goes (as expected) to the Koreans.

For the Ro36 most is determined too. Only a few slots are still (theoretically) open:

Lambo can still (theoretically) overtake uThermal by winning all of the remaining ESL Open Cups (in all regions) that still give points.
Zoun can still (theoretically) overtake Bunny by accumulating at least 105 points from the remaining ESL Open Cups (120 theoretically possible) and Bunny getting eliminated in the first Round of DHM Last Chance and not earning ESL Open Cup points.
Cham can still (theoretically) overtake Kelazhur by accumulating at least 115 points from the remaining ESL Open Cups (120 theoretically possible) and Kelazhur not earning ESL Open Cup points.
In the Oceania standings theoretically RiSky, EnDerr and Seither can still overtake Probe, but as none of these players is likely to earn any points from ESL Open Cups and none of them qualified for DHM Last Chance this seed will go to Probe most likely.
In the China standings theoretically Jieshi, XY, MacSed and Silky can still overtake Cyan, but again as none of these players is likely to earn any points from ESL Open Cups and none of them qualified for DHM Last Chance this seed will go to Cyan most likely.

So after the next set of ESL Open Cups uThermal, Bunny and Kelazhur will (most likely) have mathematically secured their Ro36 seed and there will only be 2 remaining open slots (CN & OC), which are (most likely) gifted to Probe and Cyan.

As always you can find more information on Liquipedia:

IEM Katowice/2021/Round of 36
IEM Katowice/2021
ESL Pro Tour/2020/21/Standings (with links to each Regions standings)

Zzzapper

1690 Posts

December 18 2020 10:43 GMT

#69

On December 18 2020 19:15 hjpalpha wrote:
For the Ro36 most is determined too. Only a few slots are still (theoretically) open:

Lambo can still (theoretically) overtake uThermal by winning all of the remaining ESL Open Cups (in all regions) that still give points.
Zoun can still (theoretically) overtake Bunny by accumulating at least 105 points from the remaining ESL Open Cups (120 theoretically possible) and Bunny getting eliminated in the first Round of DHM Last Chance and not earning ESL Open Cup points.
Cham can still (theoretically) overtake Kelazhur by accumulating at least 115 points from the remaining ESL Open Cups (120 theoretically possible) and Kelazhur not earning ESL Open Cup points.
In the Oceania standings theoretically RiSky, EnDerr and Seither can still overtake Probe, but as none of these players is likely to earn any points from ESL Open Cups and none of them qualified for DHM Last Chance this seed will go to Probe most likely.
In the China standings theoretically Jieshi, XY, MacSed and Silky can still overtake Cyan, but again as none of these players is likely to earn any points from ESL Open Cups and none of them qualified for DHM Last Chance this seed will go to Cyan most likely.

So except for the extremely unlikely scenario where Zoun wins almost all the open cups, the Last Chance tournament offers no last chances at all?

fLyiNgDroNe

Belgium3800 Posts

December 18 2020 11:02 GMT

#70

On December 18 2020 19:43 Zzzapper wrote:

Show nested quote +

So except for the extremely unlikely scenario where Zoun wins almost all the open cups, the Last Chance tournament offers no last chances at all?

thats ironic. I guess comes next Monday, when mathematical chances will no longer exist, the Last Chance will officially become the "Just play for money, bro" tournament

hjpalpha

Germany254 Posts

December 18 2020 14:02 GMT

#71

On December 18 2020 20:02 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:

Show nested quote +

thats ironic. I guess comes next Monday, when mathematical chances will no longer exist, the Last Chance will officially become the "Just play for money, bro" tournament

Last Chance Qualifiers were significant regarding Qualification, the event itself will not change anything (because of how the Qualifiers went) regarding this. It might shuffle the standings a bit though (as in for the seeding during IEM) but it will not change who qualified.

Also CN and OC will not be mathematically determined on Monday (OC one week later and CN with the last set of ESL Open Cups that give points toward the 2020/21 Standings)