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Code S RO16 Preview: Cure, Stats, Zest, Rogue

Forum Index > SC2 General
17 CommentsPost a Reply

Code S RO16 Preview: Cure, Stats, Zest, Rogue

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
July 24th, 2020 10:02 GMT

2020 GSL Code S Season 2 - Round of 16

by Orlok

What a weird turn of events this round of sixteen has been! Amid a torrent of unexpected outcomes, hope for returnees has reached a new peak. All three players to finish first in their groups so far—DongRaeGu, PartinG, and Dream—are players who returned to StarCraft II after long hiatuses (two due to military service; one to try his hand at other competitions). The coming playoffs promises to be a breath of fresh air breezing above Korean SC2's 'stagnant water' (the Korean community term for a stagnant scene), something that seemed impossible just a few months ago.

However, one last group remains before the playoffs, and this group is the epitome of conventional. All participants here are strong, veteran players who have stuck with SC2 for several years straight—no result here would count as a surprise.

More info: GSL Code S Season 2 on Liquipedia

Group D Preview: Cure, Stats, Zest, Rogue

Start time: Saturday, Jul 25 4:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Out of all players to have played SC2, few have toed the fine line between good and great quite like 2020 Cure. It’s still hard to rate him as a player. His online win percentages have been beyond good at times, and though online performance is not a 100% predictor of offline success, we had reason to believe he'd eventually break out in major competitions as well.

This prediction was half fulfilled when he made the finals of Code S last season, taking out INnoVation 4-3 in the semis. However, his actual grand finals performance left a lot wanting, as he was quickly and easily demolished by TY in a 4-0 sweep. It was quite disappointing, especially considering the gutsy, clutch outing he had against INnoVation. On any given day, Cure could look like a cold-blooded killer or someone hard-stuck in the group stages—it all averages out to Cure being a pretty good player.

Headed into this tough group, Cure had the advantage of having the best recent form. A Code S finals sweep doesn't detract from how meaningful it was to get there in the first place. Cure being Cure, has spent plenty of time in online tournaments and has raked in wins like nobody's business (though he's cooled down ever so slightly the 2nd quarter). His 0-3 loss to Serral in the DH Summer Finals RO4 was unfortunate but it was preceded by a magnificent 3-2 win over Maru in the quarterfinals. With Stats and Zest looking very shaky and inconsistent, Cure should feel comfortable about his chances of getting out of this tough group.

Stats comes into this group with more than a little to prove. We often talk about giving the benefit of the doubt to players who have hit championship heights in the past, acknowledging the fact that such talent might be rekindled at a moment's notice. However, Stats had been mired mediocrity for long enough now that he's not a championship caliber player anymore. It hasn't quite been a calendar year since his last championship run at ASUS ROG Assembly Summer 2019, but it seems safe to say that the expiration date on that preservative halo has passed. His dry stretch in Code S has lasted even longer, as it's been two years since his last quarterfinals appearance in the GSL. While he's actually done quite well in 'weekender' style tournaments in that time, one can't help but be concerned about his Code S woes. While the rebooting of the AfreecaTV Freecs team seems to have given its members some new mojo, it doesn't seem to have helped Stats much at all. To make a case for Stats, you have to look into his absolutely bonkers online stats in July, and interpret that as a sign of his renewed focus and passion.

[image loading]
TL.net Liquibet picks at the time of publishing.


Zest is Zest, not always the best, but good enough to be a pest, we must attest. While Cure might average out to being very good, the data points on the Zest-skill chart are so erratically spaced out that no one has any idea how good he is (Dear should sue for gimmick infringement).

It wasn’t that long ago that Zest beat the Finnish Phenom Serral in the semifinals of IEM Katowice, but no matter how hard you look, it's hard to identify a player of that level when you see him play now. He seems stuck in the middle much like Stats—good enough to consistently have a satisfying slice of the prize-pool pie, but not good enough to make the big bucks. Yet again, we're left to wonder if Zest will "turn it on" and show us championship caliber play. His most recent results don't paint a pretty picture—he just barely qualified for Code S thanks to a shallow qualifier roster and very forgiving format. In the RO24, he barely defeated SpeCial and Zoun, and used his winners' interview to flagellate himself for his poor play. Maybe there's a silver lining to be found. Zest seemed genuinely embarrassed at how much his skill-level had lapsed, so he could be motivated to give his fans a better showing in the RO16. Like Stats and Rogue, he has very impressive achievements in his past—even if he punches 20% below that weight, he could make it through to the playoffs.

Rogue rounds out this group, and like everyone else here, he has the potential for greatness. His championship run at IEM Katowice 2020 earned him a hefty payday and the distinct honor being the only back-to-back IEM World Champion in StarCraft II. At that moment, he was undoubtedly the best player in StarCraft II—then, he threw all that momentum away by going into another post-championship slump. Just as it happened after he won BlizzCon 2017, he was eliminated in the first round of the very next Code S tournament (due to Scarlett cheese both times, amusingly enough).

The last time around, that embarrassment lit a fire beneath his behind, and he ended up winning IEM Katowice right after. Since there's no event with a $100k first place prize anywhere in the near future, Rogue will have to make due with winning this season of GSL Code S if he wants to redeem himself. He's had an easy path so far, taking out two returnees in Super and Taeja in the RO24. His recent elimination in the group stages of the Douyu Cup wasn't encouraging—while he did beat Serral in a semi-meaningful match (Serral was playing only for seeding), his losses to PartinG, Zest, and Armani stick out even more prominently. The case for Rogue is that his 2020 peak was the highest among these four players, and thus he has a short path back to championship contention.

Predictions

Everyone here has success and fame to their name, but none of these players currently stand out as someone who's red hot. Then again, with all the upsets in this RO16, it's hard to point to anyone as an odds on favorite to win.

Cure 2-1 Stats
Zest 0-2 Rogue
Cure 2-1 Rogue
Stats 1-2 Zest
Rogue 2-1 Zest

Cure and Rogue advance.



Credits and acknowledgements

Writer: Orlok
Images: AfreecaTV
Statistics: Aligulac.com and Liquipedia

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TL+ Member
SenorChang
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Australia4728 Posts
July 24 2020 10:12 GMT
#2
i really like the way Cure's been playing lately, hope he has a good run.

also, the event is not in the sidebar?
ლ(╹◡╹ლ)
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland17863 Posts
July 24 2020 10:44 GMT
#3
Really intriguing group, could see almost any combo advance out of it.

Personally rooting for Stats to make a deep run here, been too long for the guy.
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
TL+ Member
Akio
Profile Joined January 2019
Finland1616 Posts
July 24 2020 10:47 GMT
#4
In 2018-2019 it would have been ludicrous to not vote for Stats and Rogue to advance, but I think now the other 2 are the favored once to get out. With that said, StatsFighting all the way!!
いてまえ
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States31188 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-24 15:37:17
July 24 2020 15:37 GMT
#5
what a DICEROLL group

my favorite sub-plot of the RO16 has been KR Terrans thinking TvZ is an easy match-up, and subsequently getting their teeth kicked in. I just wanna see how Cure vs Rogue goes for that reason
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
TL+ Member
TentativePanda
Profile Joined August 2014
United States709 Posts
July 24 2020 16:11 GMT
#6
Fuck I made these predictions a few days ago and come to find out TL writers made the same ones. Goodbye liquibets
sneakyfox
Profile Joined January 2017
8216 Posts
July 24 2020 16:16 GMT
#7
Thanks for another level-headed preview.

I have a feeling that Rogue is tired of slumping and is ready to make a deep run this year. And I also have a feeling, which is just as much a hope, that Stats is in top shape again. With how difficult TvP is at the moment I think Cure is in trouble though.
"I saw what sneakyfox wrote on TL.net and it made me furious" - PartinG
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
55021 Posts
July 24 2020 16:55 GMT
#8
On July 25 2020 01:16 sneakyfox wrote:
Thanks for another level-headed preview.

I have a feeling that Rogue is tired of slumping and is ready to make a deep run this year. And I also have a feeling, which is just as much a hope, that Stats is in top shape again. With how difficult TvP is at the moment I think Cure is in trouble though.

Rogue already won Katowice, he can take it easy until March!
Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes.
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States31188 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-24 16:58:28
July 24 2020 16:58 GMT
#9
On July 25 2020 01:55 Elentos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2020 01:16 sneakyfox wrote:
Thanks for another level-headed preview.

I have a feeling that Rogue is tired of slumping and is ready to make a deep run this year. And I also have a feeling, which is just as much a hope, that Stats is in top shape again. With how difficult TvP is at the moment I think Cure is in trouble though.

Rogue already won Katowice, he can take it easy until March!


who is going to be brave enough to come out with the take that equitable prize pools are killing competitive StarCraft?
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
TL+ Member
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq16954 Posts
July 24 2020 17:28 GMT
#10
Cure's semi-finals win over INnoVation was the some of the least convincing high level TvT there was. The 4-0 in the finals was not even surprising after that.

But nice group overall. All top players, and all players where you can make a case that they're slumping/choking/underperforming.
Chemist391
Profile Joined October 2010
United States351 Posts
July 24 2020 17:30 GMT
#11
Kind of feels like everybody here has something to prove, but the only one not in a slump is Cure. I think Cure comes out in 1st, but after that, it's tough to call. I think Zest has a much better chance vs Rogue than does Stats, but it comes down to scouting and BO luck. Giving Rogue a slight edge vP here. Stats vs Zest is truly impossible to predict with any certainty atm.
wchigo
Profile Joined September 2010
China67 Posts
July 24 2020 18:05 GMT
#12
On July 25 2020 00:37 Waxangel wrote:
what a DICEROLL group

my favorite sub-plot of the RO16 has been KR Terrans thinking TvZ is an easy match-up, and subsequently getting their teeth kicked in. I just wanna see how Cure vs Rogue goes for that reason

Except for Innovation and his pick of Dark. He dismantled Dark in a 4-0 that didn’t even look close. I love Dark, probably the player I support the most these days, and that drubbing was hard to watch...
Mettis
Profile Joined June 2019
84 Posts
July 25 2020 00:31 GMT
#13
Gonna go for the semi wild prediction of both toss making it through
ThunderJunk
Profile Joined December 2015
United States499 Posts
July 25 2020 01:30 GMT
#14
My biggest question going into this group is: Will Stats Prove he can Chrono His Gateways and be more passive aggressive instead of defensive. If not, he is not long for this meta. I hope he can show great games.
I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do.
BerserkSword
Profile Joined December 2018
United States2123 Posts
July 25 2020 01:34 GMT
#15
On July 25 2020 10:30 ThunderJunk wrote:
My biggest question going into this group is: Will Stats Prove he can Chrono His Gateways and be more passive aggressive instead of defensive. If not, he is not long for this meta. I hope he can show great games.


I disagree.

Battery Overcharge is good for a defensive player like Stats.

Protoss is favored in the lategame against Zerg now if you have the lategame abilities of stats.



TL+ Member
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-25 02:42:03
July 25 2020 02:39 GMT
#16
On July 25 2020 10:34 BerserkSword wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2020 10:30 ThunderJunk wrote:
My biggest question going into this group is: Will Stats Prove he can Chrono His Gateways and be more passive aggressive instead of defensive. If not, he is not long for this meta. I hope he can show great games.


I disagree.

Battery Overcharge is good for a defensive player like Stats.

Protoss is favored in the lategame against Zerg now if you have the lategame abilities of stats.





From what I've seen, battery overcharge in PvZ is just a bile magnet. Whereas it actually seems quite strong in PvT/PvP.

And Protoss being favored in lategame PvZ is quite the bold claim. Can you provide any recent examples of Protoss defeating top Zergs in lategame?
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
swarminfestor
Profile Joined September 2017
Malaysia1778 Posts
July 25 2020 08:03 GMT
#17
I am rooting for Rogue to grab the 2nd trophy unless Dream gonna wreck that dream from happening.
Rogue & Maru fan boy. ^^
raga4ka
Profile Joined February 2008
Bulgaria5673 Posts
July 25 2020 13:23 GMT
#18
Best players in their respective race all put in 1 group of death.
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