Code S RO16 - Group A Preview: Maru, Impact, Bunny, Patience
by Destructicon
Friday, Mar 08 11:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
Group A initially looked to be the very definition of clear cut. Maru used his #1 seed advantage at the group selections to pave himself an easy road to the playoffs, pitting himself against three saps who would be happy enough to merely reach the first Code S quarterfinal of their careers. Then, all four players went to IEM Katowice, where some crazy results went down and complicated everyone's predictions for this group.
All signs up until February 28th indicated that Maru would challenge for the championship at IEM Katowice. At the very least, it looked like he'd make it to the RO12 playoff stage again. After all, how could the three-time Code S champion fail to finish top three in a group with Lambo, Leenock, Neeb, Trap, and Dark?
However, things immediately got off to a rocky start as Maru lost 0-2 in his first series with Trap. It just kept getting worse from there, with Maru losing the following series to Leenock, and then even getting KO'd by his former TvP sandbag Neeb. While Maru saved a bit of face by defeating Lambo and Dark to close out the group, it was too little and too late—he was eliminated from the IEM RO24 as fourth place in his group.
In the grand scheme of things, this might just turn out to be an extreme outlier case of Maru under-performing. Travel fatigue? Gross overconfidence? Whatever the cause, one would think his IEM embarrassment will have served as a wake-up call. It's one he'll certainly need—his GSL groupmates aren't terribly weaker than those at IEM, and they should be emboldened by seeing Maru's mortality revealed.
The story of Impact's slow-but-steady progress arrived at an important chapter when he reached his second consecutive Code S RO16 this season. It proved that his RO16 advancement in the previous year was not a momentary blip, and that he had made real strides in bridging his online and offline performances. For his troubles he was rewarded the 'prize' of facing Maru as his first RO16 opponent.
Somehow, that joke gift may have turned into a real gift overnight. The original plan of taking second place in the group is still perfectly valid: Bunny is prone to spontaneously combusting, and Patience was regarded as one of the weakest players in the RO16 group selections.
But now Impact also has a small glimmer of hope that he might be able to also blindside Maru, should the opportunity come. Maru looked panicked and sluggish in his loss to Leenock—a far cry from the 2018 Maru who seemed like he'd never lose to inferior players. The cheesy approach employed by Leenock shouldn't be the hardest to imitate.
Speaking of cheese, Patience also lurks in this group. He's no longer the cheese-only player of old, but we all expect him to bring the unexpected in important matches.
Patience was good enough to earn a coveted online-qualifier seed at IEM Katowice, but his actual performance in the live, group stage in Poland was poor. Though we might brush off his PvP losses to Zest, Stats, and herO as being meaningless in this particular group, it wasn't encouraging to see him lose to Terran player SpeCial (who is definitely no Maru).
Patience doesn't seem like he has much of a shot of making it to the RO8, but who ever thought he'd make it through the IEM Katowice online qualifier in the first place? Whether it's by hitting opponents with the stupid gun or through pure Protoss devilry, he has a knack for beating the odds.
But of the three underdogs in the group, Bunny is the one that's best equipped to surprise everyone and make it to the Code S RO8 for the first time in his career. Not only did Bunny qualify for IEM Katowice in convincing fashion (getting through the FIRST Korean qualifier), he even scored some fantastic wins in the IEM group stage: he beat an extremely strong TvT player in TY, and defeated the eventual tournament champion in soO. As for TvP credentials... well Aligulac says Bunny's TvP win-rate over the past few months is 61%, which means he should be able to beat Patience, right?
Prediction
While it's easy to predict a slump for a player after a bad tournament result, in all likeliness IEM Katowice was just that for Maru: A single bad tournament. It could be the result that pushes him to the next level, like his near-elimination from Code S at the hands of KeeN last year. While all three of the other players have the potential to move on, Bunny impressed me the most so I'll give him the nod to advance.
But there's a part of me that's also just intrigued by the utter chaos scenario of him dropping out of Code S this early and what might ensoO afterward
On March 07 2019 12:18 Waxangel wrote: I expect and want Maru to get through...
But there's a part of me that's also just intrigued by the utter chaos scenario of him dropping out of Code S this early and what might ensoO afterward
What kind of storylines do you see ensoOing from the chaos?
well soO has only beaten other kongs in finals. Stats? He’s only beaten soO and Dark in finals. soO has beaten Stats and Dark. Dark beat Stats to win his SSL.
so soO is still the ultimate Kong in SC2 and the final boss of GSL. Stats is kind of becoming the final boss of global events tho.
Honestly even tho SoO litteraly just won a tournament I have a hard time seeing him out of his group, he got the shitiest of match up for him. But maybe we are in for another surprise.
in all seriousness though it is the best terran in the world with the 3 weakest players in the ro16, so he'll get out for sure but it's gonna be tough for bunny considering he has to play a protoss first. expecting maru+patience here
I have a feeling that the non-Asian international tourneys have shown Maru's oopsies more than in the domestic ones. This isn't really an excuse for him but I feel like the levek of domination is on a totally different level to that of his comfort level: Code S.
On March 07 2019 13:46 Nakajin wrote: Honestly even tho SoO litteraly just won a tournament I have a hard time seeing him out of his group, he got the shitiest of match up for him. But maybe we are in for another surprise.
Would it be a surprise if soO beats Rogue in his favourite matchup, then loses to TY/Gumi in the winner's, then Rogue takes out TY/Gumi in the loser's, and then soO advances over Rogue in the final match - in his favourite matchup?
It depends. In case you haven’t realized by now, Maru is two different players. If Good Maru shows up he’ll steamroll his way to RO8. If Bad Maru shows up he might end up proxy/cheesing his way right out of the tourney. He has a tendency to overcommit to the “cheese” strat in important moments. (See BlizzCon vs sOs for another reference). The other three players are not on his level BUT they are good enough to take advantage if he has an off day.
On March 07 2019 13:46 Nakajin wrote: Honestly even tho SoO litteraly just won a tournament I have a hard time seeing him out of his group, he got the shitiest of match up for him. But maybe we are in for another surprise.
Would it be a surprise if soO beats Rogue in his favourite matchup, then loses to TY/Gumi in the winner's, then Rogue takes out TY/Gumi in the loser's, and then soO advances over Rogue in the final match - in his favourite matchup?
In that group all 4 can advance or get knocked out. soO has a momentum atm, while Rogue and TY and Gumi does not seem as scary as before. But there is like 2 weeks until they play. Rogue has the brainstorming sessions of Jin Air, plus a whole team as practice partner. Gumi can always mech it happen and if given enough time TY can always come out with some smart tactics.
On March 07 2019 13:46 Nakajin wrote: Honestly even tho SoO litteraly just won a tournament I have a hard time seeing him out of his group, he got the shitiest of match up for him. But maybe we are in for another surprise.
Would it be a surprise if soO beats Rogue in his favourite matchup, then loses to TY/Gumi in the winner's, then Rogue takes out TY/Gumi in the loser's, and then soO advances over Rogue in the final match - in his favourite matchup?
In that group all 4 can advance or get knocked out. soO has a momentum atm, while Rogue and TY and Gumi does not seem as scary as before. But there is like 2 weeks until they play. Rogue has the brainstorming sessions of Jin Air, plus a whole team as practice partner. Gumi can always mech it happen and if given enough time TY can always come out with some smart tactics.
On liquidpedia it says they play on saturday the 9
On March 07 2019 12:18 Waxangel wrote: I expect and want Maru to get through...
But there's a part of me that's also just intrigued by the utter chaos scenario of him dropping out of Code S this early and what might ensoO afterward
For a second I had to check if Team Ence signed soO and I some how missed it. Would have been hilarious if he was signed right before IEM. Instead, the best soO fans can do is cheer him on by eating a bowl of chives while watching the games.
On March 08 2019 02:44 ProBell wrote: AFTER IEM Katowice you guys predict 2 Terrans to get out of the group when theres toss and zerg in it? :D :D
It's just a single tournament, in Code S this season Terran are doing quite well; not to mention Maru and Bunny did better than Impact and Patience at Katowice.
On March 08 2019 02:44 ProBell wrote: AFTER IEM Katowice you guys predict 2 Terrans to get out of the group when theres toss and zerg in it? :D :D
User was warned for this post
Maru v Dark. Zerg stronk, nobody told Dark though. So, now we can accept Zerg isn't as imba as you would love them to be. Which gives us 1 Terran through. And while Patience is a good player, both Maru and Bunny should win if they prepare properly. The only question is if Maru is capable of winning TvT and how well will be Patience prepared(I can see him winning 1 BO3 PvT)
sometimes when a player is so damn good and they've won everything, they feel like they've achieved what they needed to, and lack the drive and fire to continue dominating. like astronauts who go to the moon are depressed afterward - cause what's left??? hopefully that's not the case with maru. BUT if he does drop out, then maybe soo has a chance to get another win....
although as much as i like soo i dont think he will make it out of a group with his nemesis evil rogue who denied him a blizzcon trophy, good guy gumiho who also denied him a GSL, and TY who dont recall if TY denied him, but TY is a god level terran, and god level terrans have given soo hard times in the past.
hopefully all this talk of terrans sucking now is true, and this will allow soo to edge out TY or gumiho, and hopefully his win against serral will give him the confidence needed to revenge stomp rogue
On March 08 2019 02:44 ProBell wrote: AFTER IEM Katowice you guys predict 2 Terrans to get out of the group when theres toss and zerg in it? :D :D
User was warned for this post
Maru v Dark. Zerg stronk, nobody told Dark though. So, now we can accept Zerg isn't as imba as you would love them to be. Which gives us 1 Terran through. And while Patience is a good player, both Maru and Bunny should win if they prepare properly. The only question is if Maru is capable of winning TvT and how well will be Patience prepared(I can see him winning 1 BO3 PvT)
Also Inno beat Serral super late game and Serral didn't even know what to do against mass nuke and Bio counter attacks. It's just fun to jump on the "Terran is super dead, everyone can beat Top Terrans now"- train these days I guess
On March 08 2019 02:44 ProBell wrote: AFTER IEM Katowice you guys predict 2 Terrans to get out of the group when theres toss and zerg in it? :D :D
User was warned for this post
Maru v Dark. Zerg stronk, nobody told Dark though. So, now we can accept Zerg isn't as imba as you would love them to be. Which gives us 1 Terran through. And while Patience is a good player, both Maru and Bunny should win if they prepare properly. The only question is if Maru is capable of winning TvT and how well will be Patience prepared(I can see him winning 1 BO3 PvT)
Called the TvT, wasn't expecting Impact to be so good. All in all, Zerg stronk
Wow! Terran OP! It’s going to be 6 Terrans in round of 8. This is the new truth! bIlllzard what R u doing about Op Terran??!
Overhyped kidding aside, I actually think 3-5 Terrans is believable. 2 so far. Inno has a good group in the sense that he only has to prep one match. I really like Gumi’s play recently so I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets through. TY is pretty great too. Don’t want to bet against Soo right now, so probably gumi or TY but not both. Hopefully if things play out that way, people calm down and we get more game analysis and less balance whine.
EPT
Maru 2 – 0 
Impact
Patience
