The Myth of the Miracle

by Soularion - @SoularionGG

It's easy to get sucked in by the narrative of a fairytale. After all, it feels good to see an underdog live out a sports movie plot in real life, and WCS 2018 has provided us with plenty of that kind of storytelling. Reynor beat Classic in GSL and the went on 3-0 SpeCial in his WCS debut; Lambo had a career breakthrough at WCS Austin; ShoWTimE made up for a poor 2017 by making it to the finals in his home country of Germany.

Standing out above all, are two of the most surprising finals runs of Legacy of the Void: MaNa at WCS Austin and Has at WCS Valencia. Has' shocking performance won him a fan-voted spot at GSL vs. The World, and both Has and MaNa may be headed to BlizzCon after dismal starts to LotV. You can practically read the headlines in your head: ' 'StarCraft 2 : The game where anything can happen.' It doesn't matter that both Has and MaNa both lost in the finals, or that MaNa ended up falling back to earth in Valencia. All that matters is, in the moment, StarCraft II felt exciting.

But, how? How is it possible for someone like MaNa to come from out of absolutely nowhere, beat all of the great European players, and even look fairly competitive against Serral? How could he perform so well at a single WCS without any prior success in LotV? Was that all a blip on the radar, a glitch in the matrix, with our hero destined to wake up to reality? Or could it be something else?

Before making the finals in WCS Austin, there was absolutely no hint that MaNa was going to do anything extraordinary going into the event. He was eliminated in the RO48 of WCS Leipzig, the first WCS event of the year (losing to JonSnow and Lambo). He wasn't particularly good in the lead-up to Austin, not winning a single set during the regional qualifiers (losing to Elazer and Harstem in groups). He wasn't even particularly good on day 1 of WCS Austin—he seemed well on his way to another disappointment after losing 0-2 to souL in group stage #2, though he survived to make it to the playoffs.

There, the miracle began. MaNa proceeded to beat Neeb (a 3-time WCS champion and finals favorite), Snute (a hall of fame-worthy foreigner) and SpeCial (BlizzCon semifinalist and one of the best foreign Terrans of all time). During that stretch, he lost just a single map. Even in his finals loss to Serral, MaNa managed to look damn good. He went up 2-1 early, and narrowly missed a chance to take a 3-1 lead over the seemingly invincible Zerg champion. The series ended with Serral shutting MaNa down taking his second WCS title, but MaNa was the true star of the tournament. Fans praised MaNa for his phenomenal play, and we were giddy with anticipation to see how far he could go at the upcoming WCS Valencia. It seemed too good to be just a spark in the darkness. Surely, it was a light that would continue to shine.

It wasn't. At least, it doesn't seem that way for now. MaNa may do better at WCS Montreal, but any hope of him truly being a contender for Serral's throne is long gone. He was poor at HomeStory Cup, losing to Namshar, Bunny and FanTaSy. He earned a WCS Valencia seed in WCS Challenger, but was fortunate to get an easy bracket with Rail and Bly (he went 0-5 combined against Serral and Snute). Then, at WCS Valencia, he was eliminated from the group stages by Bly. What happened? How can someone who appeared to be so great become mediocre-at-best?



At the same tournament, at the same time, Has began his run. When he defeated SpeCial and Elazer in groups, it was pretty easily written off as Has being Has. The Taiwanese Protoss had always been capable of getting upsets with his unpredictable play. He was sure to flop in best-of-fives, as usual. Then he beat Kelazhur in the RO16. Then Nerchio. Then ShoWTimE. His finals performance against Serral wasn't as competitive as MaNa's, but once again it didn't matter. Has was the star of the tournament simply by making it to the finals while sticking to his unusual style of play. At #7 in the WCS Circuit rankings, Has—once a meme and tournament sideshow—must legitimately be called a top foreigner.

How did we arrive here? Let's take a closer look.

While everyone celebrates MaNa for his thrilling win over SpeCial and macro-game wins over Serral (impressive feats for sure), it was his earlier sweeps of Snute and Neeb that started his unlikely run. Neeb famously won the 2016 KeSPA Cup during a period where he was the best PvP player in the world, but he looked totally lost against MaNa in 2018. His game sense was completely off, his decision making was bad, and he struggled to exert any control over the games. After falling behind 0-2 in the series, he lost his Phoenix scout before losing to the following all-in. While MaNa deserves credit for exploiting Neeb's mistakes with sharp decision making and good execution, Neeb's poor play stood out even more.

The series against Snute told a similar story. In game one, MaNa went for a cannon rush, and Snute quickly resigned himself to defeat after his initial defense went poorly. In game two, Snute found himself in a great position after taking out an Archon drop, but failed to capitalize on his advantage. In the final game of the sweep, Snute tapped out after being crippled by MaNa's Adept play. In the case of both Snute and Neeb, they just looked off—nowhere close to their vaunted reputations.

In terms of resistance from opponents, Has had it even easier. It's true that Has looked more mechanically sound than before (a far shout from the player who actively sabotaged his own leads), but he was getting plenty of help from his opponents as well. One moment that stood out was when Kelazhur got his CC cancelled by a sneaky Adept in game five. It's not the worst mistake we've ever seen, but also not the kind of un-clutch play you'd expect from a former BlizzCon participant. In a similar vein, ShoWTimE failed to account for a two-Adept runby in game five of their series, and ended up taking a crippling amount of Probe damage. One might say that these were not unforced-errors, that Has rattled his opponents with his crazy strategies and general reputation for cheese. But if that were the case, then why hasn't he been able to achieve that affect with any regularity?


Even as Serral dominates the WCS Circuit, MaNa, Has, Lambo, and others have shown us how the middle-class can rise up and challenge the established stars for the right to go to BlizzCon. Therein lies the double-edged nature of the current WCS Circuit. To optimists, that 'anyone can make it' vibe could seem charming, perhaps even indicating that the Circuit is more competitive than ever. To me, it's distressing. With the exception of Serral, the 'top foreigners' have not lived up to their billing. The foundation of their stardom has been shown to be perilously fragile. An ideal competitive scene isn't one where anything can happen—it's one where anyone can play well, but the best are usually triumphant in the end. Miracles ceases to be meaningful when they become commonplace. By definition, miracles should be so exquisitely rare that they are indistinguishable from acts of god.

Ideally, your competitive scene looks like Korean StarCraft during the KeSPA heyday during 2014~2015. Every team had a number of immensely talented players, but there was still a solid hierarchy of skill. When Rain disrupted the established order to win a Code S championship, it truly meant something. In the current WCS, the only thing we have resembling order is Serral.

MaNa and Has' runs were entertaining and heartwarming in the short term, but we might feel differently about those runs when BlizzCon comes around. I recall when Elazer barely squeezed into Blizzcon in 2016 and then defeated ShoWTimE and Nerchio on his way to the semifinals. Both of ShoWTimE and Nerchio were well-established pros who had shown us incredibly enjoyable, competitive series against Korean pros in the group stage. Elazer ended up getting thrashed 3-0 by Dark in an utterly uninteresting series. In hindsight, we're lucky that Elazer grew from the experience and became a champion himself, because there was a very real chance that we'd only remember him for that one run (funny enough, Elazer has joined the growing pack of indistinguishable 'championship contenders' in WCS 2018). Upsetting two foreigners and then getting ritually slaughtered by a Korean: we've seen that result at too many pre-region lock tournaments to get excited.

If the top foreigners—the ones who have proven they can play competitive games against Koreans—are unable to win consistently on the WCS Circuit, we're headed to another predictable BlizzCon. A few moral victories in the group stage, ruthless stomps by top Koreans in the playoffs, and maybe a bracket-aided 'miracle' run we can hold up for a year. I don't blame this year's underdogs for coming out of nowhere to win—they deserve all their plaudits and success. But I do blame the veterans for not bringing their A-game—whether it's due to underestimating their opponents or lack of preparation—and allowing so much chaos to seep into the WCS Circuit.

GSL vs. The World looms, and we'll soon see if Has' black magic works at the highest level of StarCraft II. But more importantly, we'll also get to see foreigner hopes such as ShoWTimE, Scarlett, and SpeCial take on perhaps their greatest test of the year. All of three of them have earned star status by winning big series against Korean pros, and all three have also crumbled spectacularly in 2018: Scarlett by being eliminated by Guru (IEM) and Namshar (WCS), ShoWTimE with his meltdown against Has, and SpeCial by blowing his best chance of making a finals against MaNa. GSL vs. the World is an opportunity to earn redemption, but it's redemption they shouldn't need in the first place.

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