EPT
The Weekly Preview
by Olli![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/bird_blue_16.png)
- TL_OlliWith the latest VSL campaign complete, and the GSL barely awoken from its inter-season slumber, things might seem quiet on the Korean front. Dreamhack Austin is dominating the Starcraft headlines this weekend, and yet things are as competitive as ever in the motherland. This week, the SSL is the big story—we get to see our first matches in Stage 2 of the Challenge division, while entering the final straight of the SSL Premier group stages.
soO Goes Again
After what must have been a heartbreaking 5th GSL Finals defeat,
soO is back in action this week in Code S. His group looks manageable, with 
Trust and Trap the underdogs against the finalist and Solar. We've all seen soO bounce back from defeat multiple times, but it'll be interesting to see how he handles this one, since it did come separated from the rest. Perhaps by now, losing in grand finals might not affect soO as much anymore - a cruel sort of routine. Perhaps it has had an even greater impact now than ever before. We shall see. How he performs will not only tell us about his state of mind, however. It may also show us what the way forward for him is. Defeat can turn into motivation just as easily as it can lead to the opposite. The way soO shows up may tell us whether or not he has it in him to reach the big stage again. His level of play last season was definitely up to par, and he was outdone only by the then best player in the world. Can he do it again?
Patiently Climbing
It's been said too many times by now, butPatience might be the most underrated player in Korea. This month alone he's defeated ByuL, 
GuMiho, Zest a bunch of times, INnoVation, ByuN and herO. To say that Patience is capable of beating even the very best on his day is not doing him justice anymore. Patience is now beating them quite regularly. I have him down as the favorite in his Code S group on Saturday. Picking Patience over TY and Rogue would have been ridiculed not so long ago, but Patience has proven his mettle. Bunny completes the group, but the opening match may just decide the group winner, as TY and Patience face off first, and given TY's recent showings, I favor Patience.
Is Patience championship material in Korea? That's a tough question to answer. He has earned himself a championship at the last HomeStory Cup, but that tournament is obviously completely different to the grueling multi-month seasons in Korea. I'm unsure whether Patience has the preparation side down yet that is undoubtedly necessary to succeed in Korea. His performance in Group F might give us some clues.
Zest vs Maru
If only it were 2014. A match between these two players used to be among the most exciting happenings in Korea, and it wasn't so rare either. Nineteen times they've played against each other, withZest leading their head-to-head map score by 18 to 15. Maru has, however, won one more series (10-9). That shows just how much of a rivalry used to be here when both these giants were at the top of their game, leading the line for their respective team in Proleague. Now, however, the clash of these two just isn't the same anymore. Zest has fallen so far, he's barely recognizable anymore. Maru, albeit not as poor at the moment, is a shadow of his former self as well. Usually you would expect a match between these two to decide who wins a competition, but this one will not. Instead, Maru and Zest sit in 8th and 9th place in SSL respectively, struggling to stay afloat at all. Qualification for playoff spots is a very unrealistic prospect for both of them; this is mainly about saving face now. Let's hope better times await them both. They're much better than what they're showing at the moment.
SSL Challenge - A Fresh Start
While there’s no traditional prize on offer in this latest iteration of the SSL Challenge—no trophies, no hefty cheque—that’s not to say that there’s nothing of value to be won. Stage 2 of the SSL Challenge brings with it four possible seeds for the next season of the SSL Premier (one direct seed for the top-ranked player in this coming round robin, and three spots in the upcoming Fast Lane), while the bottom two players will be eliminated from the competition, and forced to re-qualify for next season’s SSL Challenge. So now we’re entering a crucial five-week period. With no info on whether the SSL will continue into 2018 (or even whether they’d keep this format and seeding ticking over), qualifying for Season 2 of the SSL Challenge could potentially be pretty meaningless in the big picture—with neither money nor seeding spots on the line. That means that finishing in the top 4 is absolutely vital for any player with even a modicum of ambition.
With Losira gone, it’s only protoss and terran from here, and opening week should see two heavy hitters off to good starts.herO has blown through the SSL with ease—4-0 so far, winning PvTs against GuMiho, jjakji, and ByuN (not to mention his terran-slaughter in the Super Tournament either)—and Ryung is by far the least demanding opponent he could’ve drawn first up here save Dear.
Speaking of Dear,TY should similarly be expected to beat him with ease—ignoring his swift 0-3 exit at the hands of a cheesy herO in the Super Tournament, TY has looked pretty decent in TvP recently—especially in his 4-0 display in GSLTV’s Race Wars tournament last week against Classic, herO and Stats (x2). That leaves the sole 50/50 matchup as ByuN vs Classic. Both have shown as many flaws recently as strengths, and while the strength of ByuN’s TvP play in the teamleague portion of the VSL perhaps gives him a slight advantage, Classic’s unpredictability means that this should be a match to watch.
Weekly Schedule:
Mon - SSL Premier - sOs vs Dark / Solar vs Patience / INnoVation vs ByuL / Stats vs aLive / Zest vs Maru
Wed - GSL Ro.32 Group E - soO / Trust / Trap / Solar
Sat - GSL Ro.32 Group F - TY / Patience / Rogue / Bunny
Sat - SSL Challenge - herO vs Ryung / ByuN vs Classic / Dear vs TY
soO Goes Again
After what must have been a heartbreaking 5th GSL Finals defeat,
soO is back in action this week in Code S. His group looks manageable, with Trust and Trap the underdogs against the finalist and Solar. We've all seen soO bounce back from defeat multiple times, but it'll be interesting to see how he handles this one, since it did come separated from the rest. Perhaps by now, losing in grand finals might not affect soO as much anymore - a cruel sort of routine. Perhaps it has had an even greater impact now than ever before. We shall see. How he performs will not only tell us about his state of mind, however. It may also show us what the way forward for him is. Defeat can turn into motivation just as easily as it can lead to the opposite. The way soO shows up may tell us whether or not he has it in him to reach the big stage again. His level of play last season was definitely up to par, and he was outdone only by the then best player in the world. Can he do it again?Patiently Climbing
It's been said too many times by now, but
Patience might be the most underrated player in Korea. This month alone he's defeated ByuL, GuMiho, Zest a bunch of times, INnoVation, ByuN and herO. To say that Patience is capable of beating even the very best on his day is not doing him justice anymore. Patience is now beating them quite regularly. I have him down as the favorite in his Code S group on Saturday. Picking Patience over TY and Rogue would have been ridiculed not so long ago, but Patience has proven his mettle. Bunny completes the group, but the opening match may just decide the group winner, as TY and Patience face off first, and given TY's recent showings, I favor Patience. Is Patience championship material in Korea? That's a tough question to answer. He has earned himself a championship at the last HomeStory Cup, but that tournament is obviously completely different to the grueling multi-month seasons in Korea. I'm unsure whether Patience has the preparation side down yet that is undoubtedly necessary to succeed in Korea. His performance in Group F might give us some clues.
Zest vs Maru
If only it were 2014. A match between these two players used to be among the most exciting happenings in Korea, and it wasn't so rare either. Nineteen times they've played against each other, with
Zest leading their head-to-head map score by 18 to 15. Maru has, however, won one more series (10-9). That shows just how much of a rivalry used to be here when both these giants were at the top of their game, leading the line for their respective team in Proleague. Now, however, the clash of these two just isn't the same anymore. Zest has fallen so far, he's barely recognizable anymore. Maru, albeit not as poor at the moment, is a shadow of his former self as well. Usually you would expect a match between these two to decide who wins a competition, but this one will not. Instead, Maru and Zest sit in 8th and 9th place in SSL respectively, struggling to stay afloat at all. Qualification for playoff spots is a very unrealistic prospect for both of them; this is mainly about saving face now. Let's hope better times await them both. They're much better than what they're showing at the moment. SSL Challenge - A Fresh Start
While there’s no traditional prize on offer in this latest iteration of the SSL Challenge—no trophies, no hefty cheque—that’s not to say that there’s nothing of value to be won. Stage 2 of the SSL Challenge brings with it four possible seeds for the next season of the SSL Premier (one direct seed for the top-ranked player in this coming round robin, and three spots in the upcoming Fast Lane), while the bottom two players will be eliminated from the competition, and forced to re-qualify for next season’s SSL Challenge. So now we’re entering a crucial five-week period. With no info on whether the SSL will continue into 2018 (or even whether they’d keep this format and seeding ticking over), qualifying for Season 2 of the SSL Challenge could potentially be pretty meaningless in the big picture—with neither money nor seeding spots on the line. That means that finishing in the top 4 is absolutely vital for any player with even a modicum of ambition.
With Losira gone, it’s only protoss and terran from here, and opening week should see two heavy hitters off to good starts.
herO has blown through the SSL with ease—4-0 so far, winning PvTs against GuMiho, jjakji, and ByuN (not to mention his terran-slaughter in the Super Tournament either)—and Ryung is by far the least demanding opponent he could’ve drawn first up here save Dear.Speaking of Dear,
TY should similarly be expected to beat him with ease—ignoring his swift 0-3 exit at the hands of a cheesy herO in the Super Tournament, TY has looked pretty decent in TvP recently—especially in his 4-0 display in GSLTV’s Race Wars tournament last week against Classic, herO and Stats (x2). That leaves the sole 50/50 matchup as ByuN vs Classic. Both have shown as many flaws recently as strengths, and while the strength of ByuN’s TvP play in the teamleague portion of the VSL perhaps gives him a slight advantage, Classic’s unpredictability means that this should be a match to watch.Weekly Schedule:
Mon - SSL Premier - sOs vs Dark / Solar vs Patience / INnoVation vs ByuL / Stats vs aLive / Zest vs Maru
Wed - GSL Ro.32 Group E - soO / Trust / Trap / Solar
Sat - GSL Ro.32 Group F - TY / Patience / Rogue / Bunny
Sat - SSL Challenge - herO vs Ryung / ByuN vs Classic / Dear vs TY
SSL Premier
by munch - Munchkin365In contrast to the SSL Challenge, where players are fighting for the opportunity to prove their skills on the main stage in the coming months, the SSL Premier is where it’s happening right now. If anyone’s still confused about the format, here’s a quick primer:
Make sense? In essence, all that matters then are those boundaries—finishing in the top 4, in 5th, and outside the bottom 2. So, with only three weeks to go, let’s take a look at how our contestants this season are stacking up.
Top 4
Four players stand out from the crowd so far—INnoVation, Patience, and Solar on 4-2 records, and ByuL out by himself on 5-1. What makes this week extra juicy is that all four play each other this week—ByuL takes on INnoVation, while Patience goes up against Solar. It’s a double edged sword—they all have the opportunity to open up a gap at the top of the table, while risking the danger of being dropped back into the chasing pack. ByuL in particular has the chance to all but guarantee his playoffs spot at 6-1, but getting past a player with a 73% winrate in TvZ since February (and a 30-5 map record against zergs not named Dark) is going to be tricky to say the least. At his peak, ByuL had as dominant a grip on ZvT as any zerg that’s come before or since, and he’ll need some of that old magic to keep his SSL streak going. Meanwhile, as Olli mentioned in the previous section, Patience has done enough in the past few months for us not to be shocked by his ‘surprise’ wins any more. While that’s true, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we should expect them either, and Solar still probably edges him out as the favourite in their bout.
3-3-3
Next, we’ve got the three tied on 3-3 records. It’s somewhat strange to see them here—Stats and Dark would’ve been earmarked for success here following the former’s GSL title, and the latter’s dominance in 2016., while aLive’s been one of the hottest players of 2017 so far—but at 3-3 they’re still well within striking distance of the top 4 should they put a streak together.
Unfortunately, that won’t be possible for at least one of them. Much like those in the top 4, it’s a crucial week for Stats and aLive, and both players have been surprisingly poor in the matchup of late. aLive hasn’t impressed at all in the matchup—see his complete lack of adaptability when confronted by herO’s adept barrage in the Super Tournament, for example, and he’s clocked up a whole set of losses online as of late as well. Meanwhile, Stats’ results have dropped off a cliff since his GSL title—just compare a winrate of 61% pre-GSL Final, compared to 50% after (despite the small sample size). PvT has been a particular problem, beaten soundly in the opening match of the Super Tournament by GuMiho, in GSLTV’s Race Wars by TY and INnoVation, and in the VSL this week by ByuN. Sure, those are probably the four finest TvPers in Korea right now, and it’s perfectly fine and understandable to take a bit of a break after eight years of hard work finally led to a career-defining reward, but it’s time for him to get back to business.
The Bottom of the Barrel
So far, we’ve gone through seven players who’ve shown that they belong at this level. Now, here are the three who, on current evidence, don’t. sOs and Zest have looked like shadows of their former selves—both stuck on 1-5 records and all but consigned to relegation. They both face tough run-ins (Dark, INnoVation, and Patience for sOs; Maru, aLive, and Dark for Zest), and it would take a miracle for either to pick up the three wins required for them to even stand a chance of retaining their spot in Premier.
Maru has flared up on occasion—particularly impressive in his 2-0 win over Solar a couple weeks back—but he too has looked a clear tier below the rest of the competition on recent form. Unlike the other two, he possibly has a clear shot at survival—a very winnable match against Zest, a coinflip to see what difficulty Patience is tuned to, and a tough last-day decider against ByuL are all that separate him from redemption.
- The top 4 will advance to the Postseason playoffs. This will take a similar form to Proleague playoffs in 2015-16—i.e. 3rd plays 4th in match 1, before the winner advances to face the second ranked player, before the SSL reaches its conclusion in the Grand Final.
- #5 will retain his spot in next season’s SSL Premier.
- #6 - #8 will be placed in the Fast Lane. This is similar in spirit to the old GSL Up&Downs, but takes the form of two GSL-style groups instead of the old round robin approach. The top 2 from both groups advance into next season’s SSL Premier, with one quirk—the bottom 2 from Group 1 are given a second chance and are seeded into Group 2. With #6 and #7 being placed in Group 1, and #8 in Group 2, that gives #6 and #7 two chances to advance to Premier compared to #8’s one.
- #9 - #10 will drop to the SSL Challenge.
Make sense? In essence, all that matters then are those boundaries—finishing in the top 4, in 5th, and outside the bottom 2. So, with only three weeks to go, let’s take a look at how our contestants this season are stacking up.
Top 4
Four players stand out from the crowd so far—INnoVation, Patience, and Solar on 4-2 records, and ByuL out by himself on 5-1. What makes this week extra juicy is that all four play each other this week—ByuL takes on INnoVation, while Patience goes up against Solar. It’s a double edged sword—they all have the opportunity to open up a gap at the top of the table, while risking the danger of being dropped back into the chasing pack. ByuL in particular has the chance to all but guarantee his playoffs spot at 6-1, but getting past a player with a 73% winrate in TvZ since February (and a 30-5 map record against zergs not named Dark) is going to be tricky to say the least. At his peak, ByuL had as dominant a grip on ZvT as any zerg that’s come before or since, and he’ll need some of that old magic to keep his SSL streak going. Meanwhile, as Olli mentioned in the previous section, Patience has done enough in the past few months for us not to be shocked by his ‘surprise’ wins any more. While that’s true, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we should expect them either, and Solar still probably edges him out as the favourite in their bout.
3-3-3
Next, we’ve got the three tied on 3-3 records. It’s somewhat strange to see them here—Stats and Dark would’ve been earmarked for success here following the former’s GSL title, and the latter’s dominance in 2016., while aLive’s been one of the hottest players of 2017 so far—but at 3-3 they’re still well within striking distance of the top 4 should they put a streak together.
Unfortunately, that won’t be possible for at least one of them. Much like those in the top 4, it’s a crucial week for Stats and aLive, and both players have been surprisingly poor in the matchup of late. aLive hasn’t impressed at all in the matchup—see his complete lack of adaptability when confronted by herO’s adept barrage in the Super Tournament, for example, and he’s clocked up a whole set of losses online as of late as well. Meanwhile, Stats’ results have dropped off a cliff since his GSL title—just compare a winrate of 61% pre-GSL Final, compared to 50% after (despite the small sample size). PvT has been a particular problem, beaten soundly in the opening match of the Super Tournament by GuMiho, in GSLTV’s Race Wars by TY and INnoVation, and in the VSL this week by ByuN. Sure, those are probably the four finest TvPers in Korea right now, and it’s perfectly fine and understandable to take a bit of a break after eight years of hard work finally led to a career-defining reward, but it’s time for him to get back to business.
The Bottom of the Barrel
So far, we’ve gone through seven players who’ve shown that they belong at this level. Now, here are the three who, on current evidence, don’t. sOs and Zest have looked like shadows of their former selves—both stuck on 1-5 records and all but consigned to relegation. They both face tough run-ins (Dark, INnoVation, and Patience for sOs; Maru, aLive, and Dark for Zest), and it would take a miracle for either to pick up the three wins required for them to even stand a chance of retaining their spot in Premier.
Maru has flared up on occasion—particularly impressive in his 2-0 win over Solar a couple weeks back—but he too has looked a clear tier below the rest of the competition on recent form. Unlike the other two, he possibly has a clear shot at survival—a very winnable match against Zest, a coinflip to see what difficulty Patience is tuned to, and a tough last-day decider against ByuL are all that separate him from redemption.
Mercurial Zest
by Zealously - TL_ZealouslyPardon the late introduction, but welcome to Bizarro World. aLive just advanced in GSL, another stone lain on his endless road to a place none of us can see. What's worse, he was all but expected to advance alongside GuMiho. If that isn't enough of a callback to a bygone age for you, they were touted as favorites over Zest. Actually, wait, hold the horses, that has probably never happened before. aLive and favorite aren't words that tend to go together, anymore than the words Zest and awful (E/N: . Case closed).
Now granted, the many-time champion has not been his dominant self of late, and trends mostly downward in a worryingly steep manner. To say that he has been bad of late would not be a gross insult to the play he has demonstrated, nor an affront against the very minimal results he has posted. A slump, you might call it, only it has afflicted a player whose defining attributes are stability and polish. What, you might ask, can he do to regain his footing? Evidently, he has lost it, and it has been a while since he was forced to work for even the admission into the ignoble hall of "decent player".
But Zest's stumble from glory into repeated embarrassment does not necessarily have to be a bad thing long term. It might seem absurd to get excited for a player's future prospects when they have seldom looked worse, when they seem capable of such gyrations in level of play that nausea and confusion are our first reactions. Zest is a player whose name seems glued to the top layer. A single look at his trophy cabinet confirms that. So when he falls not only from the championship tier, but tumbles through the floor, it makes sense to wonder what the hell has happened.
All the simple answers are probably bogus. And unless Zest is calling it quits in the weeks to come, the reasons for his plummet are none so interesting as what he can make of that gut-wrenching dip in form. It may seem counter-intuitive, but I am firmly of the belief that no star is made without periods of indisputable bad performance. It holds true in sports in nearly every imaginable case -- if the dips aren't to be found before an athlete's ascent, then they will be found when they struggle to cement their legacy -- and it has proven true in Starcraft all the same. Mvp found the true extent of his potential when his body began to fail him, pushing himself into territory we legitimately couldn't imagine he would ever chart. Marineking burst of dominance came long after his first heartbreaking GSLs, and even though he is often remembered as a perennial runner-up he was characterized by grit (and greed). Patience spent years as basically nobody before he blitzed Korea to buy himself a spot at Blizzcon.
These players, and countless others, are united in the very reasonable but still horrifying realization that success is rarely a straight line, and that adversity often appears many times more momentuous and difficult to overcome than achieving those incremental victories. In a roundabout way, this is to say that the same will hold true for Zest. Dual 0-2 losses against Creator and GuMiho in the league where he has reaped many of his greatest successes might serve to spur him, or they might push him to the realization that something in his play or his routine must change. Zest is in a state of unknowability, and it's hard to say what will happen next. If all it takes is practice, then extending his record against Creator to an interesting 0-5 might have been what it took to ignite the fire. If there is more to it, then having the weaknesses he displays in areas where he has normally been rock solid, decision making and macro management alike, could be a foundation for working out more numerous problems in his play itself.
I realize that this all sounds like idle speculation, fueled by the desire to see one of the best players ever to grace Starcraft II take back his turf. Perhaps. But very few players have dropped from the top to never even make another dent, and I cannot imagine Zest doing so either. In this mercurial phase he is in, we can only wait and see if he will reach out for the lofty goals he established years ago. On the level on which these players compete, it is not the victories that inspire change, it is the defeats—and a Zest who is defeated does not need to concede final defeat.
Now granted, the many-time champion has not been his dominant self of late, and trends mostly downward in a worryingly steep manner. To say that he has been bad of late would not be a gross insult to the play he has demonstrated, nor an affront against the very minimal results he has posted. A slump, you might call it, only it has afflicted a player whose defining attributes are stability and polish. What, you might ask, can he do to regain his footing? Evidently, he has lost it, and it has been a while since he was forced to work for even the admission into the ignoble hall of "decent player".
But Zest's stumble from glory into repeated embarrassment does not necessarily have to be a bad thing long term. It might seem absurd to get excited for a player's future prospects when they have seldom looked worse, when they seem capable of such gyrations in level of play that nausea and confusion are our first reactions. Zest is a player whose name seems glued to the top layer. A single look at his trophy cabinet confirms that. So when he falls not only from the championship tier, but tumbles through the floor, it makes sense to wonder what the hell has happened.
All the simple answers are probably bogus. And unless Zest is calling it quits in the weeks to come, the reasons for his plummet are none so interesting as what he can make of that gut-wrenching dip in form. It may seem counter-intuitive, but I am firmly of the belief that no star is made without periods of indisputable bad performance. It holds true in sports in nearly every imaginable case -- if the dips aren't to be found before an athlete's ascent, then they will be found when they struggle to cement their legacy -- and it has proven true in Starcraft all the same. Mvp found the true extent of his potential when his body began to fail him, pushing himself into territory we legitimately couldn't imagine he would ever chart. Marineking burst of dominance came long after his first heartbreaking GSLs, and even though he is often remembered as a perennial runner-up he was characterized by grit (and greed). Patience spent years as basically nobody before he blitzed Korea to buy himself a spot at Blizzcon.
These players, and countless others, are united in the very reasonable but still horrifying realization that success is rarely a straight line, and that adversity often appears many times more momentuous and difficult to overcome than achieving those incremental victories. In a roundabout way, this is to say that the same will hold true for Zest. Dual 0-2 losses against Creator and GuMiho in the league where he has reaped many of his greatest successes might serve to spur him, or they might push him to the realization that something in his play or his routine must change. Zest is in a state of unknowability, and it's hard to say what will happen next. If all it takes is practice, then extending his record against Creator to an interesting 0-5 might have been what it took to ignite the fire. If there is more to it, then having the weaknesses he displays in areas where he has normally been rock solid, decision making and macro management alike, could be a foundation for working out more numerous problems in his play itself.
I realize that this all sounds like idle speculation, fueled by the desire to see one of the best players ever to grace Starcraft II take back his turf. Perhaps. But very few players have dropped from the top to never even make another dent, and I cannot imagine Zest doing so either. In this mercurial phase he is in, we can only wait and see if he will reach out for the lofty goals he established years ago. On the level on which these players compete, it is not the victories that inspire change, it is the defeats—and a Zest who is defeated does not need to concede final defeat.
Zest surely will come back, i just hope it's sooner rather than later. 
