While foreigners had showed that they can cause upsets thus far, the third day of WCS Global Finals proved that not even the favourites are safe from the wrath of the foreigners.
In Group A, Dark and Stats set the tone of the day with a long macro series that ended rather anti-climatically 2-1 in favor of Dark.
The PvP between Zest and Neeb in Group B was equally long but much more chaotic and dynamic, with Zest eventually winning 2-1 with his superior strategic choices.
Group C produced the biggest upset of the day with ShoWTimE taking down ByuN in a decisive, no nonsense 2-0 series.
After a day of long games, Elazer decided to take Group D in a completely different direction with two back to back all-ins, both deftly repelled by TY who took the series 2-0.
The fourth and final day of the RO16 will now determine our final four members of the Round of 8. The four matches will be:
On October 30 2016 07:27 blade55555 wrote: Hm just looking at this I don't think Byun is advancing, Neeb has a chance and I think Stats will advance. I imagine Nerchio will advance as well.
I do not know why you would think that. It's not like Dear looked particularly good either. Byun is definitively better than Dear, but he did not play very well today.
If Byun brings his A game, I do not think Dear stands much of a chance...
On October 30 2016 07:27 blade55555 wrote: Hm just looking at this I don't think Byun is advancing, Neeb has a chance and I think Stats will advance. I imagine Nerchio will advance as well.
I do not know why you would think that. It's not like Dear looked particularly good either. Byun is definitively better than Dear, but he did not play very well today.
If Byun brings his A game, I do not think Dear stands much of a chance...
If Dear brings his A game and ByuN plays like he did today, ByuN won't stand much of a chance either.
On October 30 2016 07:27 blade55555 wrote: Hm just looking at this I don't think Byun is advancing, Neeb has a chance and I think Stats will advance. I imagine Nerchio will advance as well.
I do not know why you would think that. It's not like Dear looked particularly good either. Byun is definitively better than Dear, but he did not play very well today.
If Byun brings his A game, I do not think Dear stands much of a chance...
Because we say ByuNs TvP and it was mediocre at best, Dears PvT is a mystery so based on this Dear looks to have a shot.
You say ByuN bring his "A" game but its not just about bringing it, maybe ByuN has an A game against zerg but doesn't against P. Thats what some of us are feeling.
On October 30 2016 07:27 blade55555 wrote: Hm just looking at this I don't think Byun is advancing, Neeb has a chance and I think Stats will advance. I imagine Nerchio will advance as well.
I do not know why you would think that. It's not like Dear looked particularly good either. Byun is definitively better than Dear, but he did not play very well today.
If Byun brings his A game, I do not think Dear stands much of a chance...
if Byun plays like he did vs Showtime Dear will win. If Dear plays like he did vs Showtime Byun will win. If both play like they did vs Showtime nobody wins.
What's the format of this tournament? For those that lost already, are they in a "loser's bracket" and at a disadvantage for the rest of the tournament?
On October 30 2016 07:27 blade55555 wrote: Hm just looking at this I don't think Byun is advancing, Neeb has a chance and I think Stats will advance. I imagine Nerchio will advance as well.
I do not know why you would think that. It's not like Dear looked particularly good either. Byun is definitively better than Dear, but he did not play very well today.
If Byun brings his A game, I do not think Dear stands much of a chance...
if Byun plays like he did vs Showtime Dear will win. If Dear plays like he did vs Showtime Byun will win. If both play like they did vs Showtime nobody wins.
Especially not the viewers. I haven't yet watched the Byun Showtime games, but after Dear got thoroughly outplayed by Showtime from the moment units were out in game 1 I'm worried about what I'm going to witness when I do.
Epic result for ShowTime though, gifted as it may have been.
On October 30 2016 07:40 Mier19891 wrote: Dear Byun is a toss up. Depends entirely on who shows up. Otherwise its Stats, Patience, Nerchio. The second match curse will reign supreme.
I can't really see any way that Byun loses vs Dear...but then I didn't see a way that Byun loses vs ShoWTimE.
If second match curses reign, then it's Drogo, Patience, and Nerchio didn't play Elazer.
On October 30 2016 07:40 Mier19891 wrote: Dear Byun is a toss up. Depends entirely on who shows up. Otherwise its Stats, Patience, Nerchio. The second match curse will reign supreme.
I can't really see any way that Byun loses vs Dear...but then I didn't see a way that Byun loses vs ShoWTimE.
If second match curses reign, then it's Drogo, Patience, and Nerchio didn't play Elazer.
Does anybody know exactly why phoenix-based comps (phoenix adept notably) fell out of favor against disruptors in korea? You can make quite a few more adepts, they can chase blink stalkers and phx are even cheaper harassment than adept drops since they generally don't die during their mission.
On October 30 2016 09:03 yubo56 wrote: Stats 2-0, Patience 2-1, ByuN 2-0, Nerchio 2-1.
Does anybody know exactly why phoenix-based comps (phoenix adept notably) fell out of favor against disruptors in korea? You can make quite a few more adepts, they can chase blink stalkers and phx are even cheaper harassment than adept drops since they generally don't die during their mission.
They didn't, people stopped playing disruptors in Korea because pheonix was too good a counter. For some unknown reason when facing foreigners they choose to try to out disruptor them
On October 30 2016 09:03 yubo56 wrote: Stats 2-0, Patience 2-1, ByuN 2-0, Nerchio 2-1.
Does anybody know exactly why phoenix-based comps (phoenix adept notably) fell out of favor against disruptors in korea? You can make quite a few more adepts, they can chase blink stalkers and phx are even cheaper harassment than adept drops since they generally don't die during their mission.
They fell out of favour because adept/archon centric builds are pretty good against PICA.
On October 30 2016 08:41 Lexender wrote: Unless Neeb throws I don't see him losing against Patience at all
Patience does a timing attack instead of playing with disruptors. Easy
he already tried that... already was defended easily.
Umm, the second game that he actually did that he won? The first game he tried the same style as Neeb and lost and the third game he was way to greedy + tried the same style again.
So I would say it's best to do timing attacks or just go phoenix pick up disruptors. Neeb seems way to good in Stalker/Disruptor vs Stalker/Disruptor games so I don't get why they keep on doing it (if I'm not missing something and it's the only way to play against it).
Always so funny to see that both the community and the casters are always like "Buyn just didn't play good today". Showtime played out of his mind and Buyn got outclassed, not because he played bad. Skillcap between koreans and foreigners are simply becoming closer.
On October 30 2016 19:17 QuellaX wrote: Always so funny to see that both the community and the casters are always like "Buyn just didn't play good today". Showtime played out of his mind and Buyn got outclassed, not because he played bad. Skillcap between koreans and foreigners are simply becoming closer.
Actually, for the level ByuN has shown previously, he did play bad. His micro, his decision-making, his multitasking, none of them were up to par. And that's why it's no wonder ShoWTimE stomped him so easily, because ShoWTimE rose to the occasion and played on the highest level I've ever seen him play PvT.
Even when ShoWTimE plays like a god, if ByuN shows up at his best it's not gonna be a stomp for ShoWTimE, more like a close series. Unlike what we got here.
"After a long day of games." did we watch the same thing? 4bo3`s are not a long day.. shit barely got started - why they do BO3 is beyond me.. then all the ads, interupted by some SC2 games.. they are wasting do much potential here
Showtime proofed that Byun has a very big weakness in his TvP. I think whether Byun or Dear will advance will depend on what either of them is doing with that information.
I am not so sure whether Nerchio will advance over Elazer. In my opinion, the series can go either way. Nerchio has been the better player in the past, but the recent results showed that everything is open.
On October 30 2016 20:27 JustPassingBy wrote: Showtime proofed that Byun has a very big weakness in his TvP. I think whether Byun or Dear will advance will depend on what either of them is doing with that information.
I am not so sure whether Nerchio will advance over Elazer. In my opinion, the series can go either way. Nerchio has been the better player in the past, but the recent results showed that everything is open.
His nerves plus the fact that ShoWTime could study A LOT of his vods (GSL+Online cups plus even streams) didn't help indeed. The lack of terran in EU makes ShoWTime PvT unknown but since he adapted his play to counter ByuN style and it worked, Dear might try that but ByuN will probably be prepared for it.
On October 30 2016 20:27 JustPassingBy wrote: Showtime proofed that Byun has a very big weakness in his TvP. I think whether Byun or Dear will advance will depend on what either of them is doing with that information.
I am not so sure whether Nerchio will advance over Elazer. In my opinion, the series can go either way. Nerchio has been the better player in the past, but the recent results showed that everything is open.
Elazer always chokes vs Nerchio in important matches. It was happening even in HotS.
Showtime-Byun is simple, the one who was more prepared won it. Showtime prepared something for Byun's play, and it seemed like Byun relied on his skill, but was lost with Showtime's preparation.
The best Byun could do is take these games to the later stage, a more difficult one for the regular terran player, but this is where Showtime's weaknesses probably are in the match-up. I don't think there are foreign terrans who can give Showtime a good practice in this scenario. Its hard for the Terran, but it is the safest option vs Showtime. I think if Showtime will meet TY, this is what TY will go for (especially after watching these games).
I wonder if Dear will take some notes, and whether Byun will try to play similarly vs Dear as well.
Nerchio-Elazer can go either way, but I still think its about 60:40 in favor of Nerchio.
Neeb already proved he can beat any Protoss, including Patiance, but I guess Patiance will be more prepared this time (may be neeb as well, as he have a day analyzing what have happened vs Zest). I guess its 50:50.
Drogo will have a hard time, the most one sided match of the deciders matches, but the foreign PvP has already proven to be quite good, so Drogo still has a chance. I'd say 70:30 in favor of Stats.
On October 30 2016 20:51 bulya wrote: Showtime-Byun is simple, the one who was more prepared won it. Showtime prepared something for Byun's play, and it seemed like Byun relied on his skill, but was lost with Showtime's preparation.
The best Byun could do is take these games to the later stage, a more difficult one for the regular terran player, but this is where Showtime's weaknesses probably are in the match-up. I don't think there are foreign terrans who can give Showtime a good practice in this scenario. Its hard for the Terran, but it is the safest option vs Showtime. I think if Showtime will meet TY, this is what TY will go for (especially after watching these games).
I wonder if Dear will take some notes, and whether Byun will try to play similarly vs Dear as well.
Nerchio-Elazer can go either way, but I still think its about 60:40 in favor of Nerchio.
Neeb already proved he can beat any Protoss, including Patiance, but I guess Patiance will be more prepared this time (may be neeb as well, as he have a day analyzing what have happened vs Zest). I guess its 50:50.
Drogo will have a hard time, the most one sided match of the deciders matches, but the foreign PvP has already proven to be quite good, so Drogo still has a chance. I'd say 70:30 in favor of Stats.
On October 30 2016 13:53 LongShot27 wrote: 3 foreigners in the top 8 isn't bad
Three more than I expected, I have to admit.
Although Neeb's run in kespa cup shook up my korean superiority beliefs a bit, I still thought that was just some matchup luck or other kind of outlier in some way. But yeah, I think it's getting hard to argue that koreans are on a completely different level than top foreigners.
Zest is best! BuyN was a strange serie. He is much better then Showtime. I hope BuyN takes out Dear. Just to avoid this crappy PvP:s. Will be a interesting evening of games today
Showtime-Byun is simple, the one who was more prepared won it. Showtime prepared something for Byun's play, and it seemed like Byun relied on his skill, but was lost with Showtime's preparation.
Showtime-Byun is simple, the one who was more prepared won it. Showtime prepared something for Byun's play, and it seemed like Byun relied on his skill, but was lost with Showtime's preparation.
What did he prepare?
He worked on fast colossus play, as he realized that ByuN was somewhat weak to it, and focused on his early game defense to avoid taking the early game damage ByuN snowballs into huge leads.
If you take game 1 of the BO, you can see that Byun actually made something happened. He sniped the fourth for free.
Overall Byun tried to play standard TvP, which doesn't work in LOTV. Every single time a terran wins against a protoss it's using tailored builds to kill one opponent or one kind of opponent in particular. Take MarineLord killing neeb before loosing to Nerchio in the Tours finals. Take the wacky cyclone builds and 1/1/1 allins that florish against protoss.
On October 30 2016 20:51 bulya wrote: Showtime-Byun is simple, the one who was more prepared won it. Showtime prepared something for Byun's play, and it seemed like Byun relied on his skill, but was lost with Showtime's preparation.
The best Byun could do is take these games to the later stage, a more difficult one for the regular terran player, but this is where Showtime's weaknesses probably are in the match-up. I don't think there are foreign terrans who can give Showtime a good practice in this scenario. Its hard for the Terran, but it is the safest option vs Showtime. I think if Showtime will meet TY, this is what TY will go for (especially after watching these games). .
I would tell you the upset was mostly Byun's side, he played much worse than he usually does. Game 1 could have been an easy win if he played safer. Game 2 was a code A play by Byun, maybe he was too nervous. If Showtime has a chance to play TY (if he survives through ro8), he will get rekted completely since TY's style is way more solid than Byun, he would never play crappy games like Byun did vs Showtime.
On October 30 2016 21:58 JackONeill wrote: If you take game 1 of the BO, you can see that Byun actually made something happened. He sniped the fourth for free.
Overall Byun tried to play standard TvP, which doesn't work in LOTV. Every single time a terran wins against a protoss it's using tailored builds to kill one opponent or one kind of opponent in particular. Take MarineLord killing neeb before loosing to Nerchio in the Tours finals. Take the wacky cyclone builds and 1/1/1 allins that florish against protoss.
Sniping the 4th came relatively late though. The first push with 2 tanks through the middle against the third was completely shut down. And that's the push ByuN relied on to do damage.
Check the vod around 16:40, that's where the push starts. It gets deflected and he tries again with two liberators before realising there is nothing he can do at this point. From there he was behind I think.
On October 30 2016 21:58 JackONeill wrote: If you take game 1 of the BO, you can see that Byun actually made something happened. He sniped the fourth for free.
Overall Byun tried to play standard TvP, which doesn't work in LOTV. Every single time a terran wins against a protoss it's using tailored builds to kill one opponent or one kind of opponent in particular. Take MarineLord killing neeb before loosing to Nerchio in the Tours finals. Take the wacky cyclone builds and 1/1/1 allins that florish against protoss.
Sniping the 4th came relatively late though. The first push with 2 tanks through the middle against the third was completely shut down. And that's the push ByuN relied on to do damage.
Check the vod around 16:40, that's where the push starts. It gets deflected and he tries again with two liberators before realising there is nothing he can do at this point. From there he was behind I think.
Yeah it was a strange idea to go for such a frontal push while scouting there was no 3rd. Or without scouting there was no third.
Overall Byun underestimated showtime, underestimated protoss, and underestimated liberators.
Showtime-Byun is simple, the one who was more prepared won it. Showtime prepared something for Byun's play, and it seemed like Byun relied on his skill, but was lost with Showtime's preparation.
What did he prepare?
He worked on fast colossus play, as he realized that ByuN was somewhat weak to it, and focused on his early game defense to avoid taking the early game damage ByuN snowballs into huge leads.
This is just the beginning, the Collosi forced vikings which means Byun had less medivacs and less Liberators. Meaning he could drop less, and had low effective units (vikings). From there on Showtime switched to disriptors, and used DTs defensively so that he doesn't lose in a base trade scenario. Also forcing all those scans with his good positioned observers and small DT harass made Byun lost at the end when Showtime defended with DTs. Both games he defended with small armies with mixed DTs in, and Byun didn't have the scans, and when Showtime took down the CCs in the basetrade it was over for Byun.
Usually a base trade is a better scenario for Terran, but Showtime was prepared for it very well, and it turned a better scenario for him (both games). Byun loves his multi pronged drops, and so eventually the defensive DTs
In other words, Showtime was prepared for the early game (good scouts), mid game (Collosi followed by disruptors), and late game (base trade scenario).
I think TY will be a completely different opponent for Showtime (or if Byun meets him again he will be more prepared), but as I said (in the earlier post), Showtime was the one who was way more prepared.
EPT
Dark and 
Stats set the tone of the day with a long macro series that ended rather anti-climatically 2-1 in favor of Dark.
ByuN in a decisive, no nonsense 2-0 series.
Good analysis
