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On January 12 2016 07:19 A_needle_jog wrote:
In my opinion balance is : T>Z>P>T . (same opinion like good korean pros).
[...]
Pro gamer koreans say TvZ is currently 70%:30% in favor of Terran. I think is right for korea region
Well, luckily we don't have to rely on your opinion or what you think, or what you say that the progamers say that the winrate is. Because we have the data, which says that Z > P (probably more than 55%), but there is no significant differences from 50-50 in TvZ or TvP. From aligulac, over last month, using all games, or restricting to GSL and SSL, as you want. December 2015, GSL in 2016 only. All gives the same result. Z > P, no signal in TvP or TvZ. So either the pros are too biased to count (possible), or you are not accurately reporting what the pros are saying (also possible).
So yeah, you've been complaining about how the phoneix opener was OP and made ZvP impossible to play for some while. How does that fit with the sub 45% winrate in PvZ in Korean pro games? How does it fit with the 40.5% PvZ winrate in GSL over 185 games in 2016? The pros in GSL still haven't caught on to your insight about the phoenix? Or maybe (gasp!) you jumped to conclusions too fast when you claimed OP on the phoenxies?? Maybe you were a bit biased as you are a zerg player yourself that like hydras, which happen to not be the right answer to mass phoenix???
Maybe time to reconsider your opinions when they conflict with data, what do you think?
I'm kindof surprised how everyone are obsessed with nerfing the adept, when the big shouting problem clearly is that zerg is beating the crap out of protoss...
+ Show Spoiler [personal bias disclaimer] +I am a zerg. A crappy zerg, like gold on EU or something like that. I'm also a bit Terran, even crappier. I'm not good at playing sc2, but I am good at reading stats... So yes, I am arguing against my personal racial interest, because that is what the data shows.
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On January 12 2016 09:37 coolprogrammingstuff wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 08:16 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 05:24 hunterzubrus wrote:
Protoss is insane at the moment. I don't understand why they needed to buff photon overcharge so much. It's crazy that a mothership core pops out and instantly able to overcharge two pylons. Also, adepts are super strong with both tanking and shade abilities. Not to mention the stupid WP pickup range. WTF was blizzard thinking? And all you Protoss players complaining about the pros being salty.... Think for a second that livelihood of these players depends on this game being balanced. Of course they're going to be salty when Protoss is completely broken at the moment. David Kim, please wake up and nerf this stupid race. What on earth are you talking about? Win rates actually indicate that Protoss is the weakest race at the moment. I don't get this "statistics tell us otherwise" argument. Copy pasted my post from another thread Show nested quote +I don't quite understand this argument - No ladder game is independent in determining your skill level, as you seem to be posting this on every thread.
If protoss is winning a lot of PvT and is getting ranked at a higher level due to ostensible imbalance, that could be a plausible explanation of why they're losing all the PvZ - because winning all their PvT has inflated their MMR. The zergs they are facing could be much more skilled relative to their rank compared to the protoss.
Or it could be a combination of both - PvT is too strong, PvZ is too weak etc. I just don't get how statistics can measure this because you're being readjusted to face opponents that are similarly ranked to you, whether they got their through imbalance or not!
It's also the reason why I'm taking the pros opinion much more over empty statistics over every league.
Except it's not about the ladder at all, but about tournaments. High profile tournaments attract the most skilled players of all races, and if Protoss has a win chance of around 48% vs T and 41 or 42% vs Zerg, what's your explanation then? Protoss pros are just worse than T and Z pros?
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On January 12 2016 09:49 CheddarToss wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 09:37 coolprogrammingstuff wrote:On January 12 2016 08:16 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 05:24 hunterzubrus wrote:
Protoss is insane at the moment. I don't understand why they needed to buff photon overcharge so much. It's crazy that a mothership core pops out and instantly able to overcharge two pylons. Also, adepts are super strong with both tanking and shade abilities. Not to mention the stupid WP pickup range. WTF was blizzard thinking? And all you Protoss players complaining about the pros being salty.... Think for a second that livelihood of these players depends on this game being balanced. Of course they're going to be salty when Protoss is completely broken at the moment. David Kim, please wake up and nerf this stupid race. What on earth are you talking about? Win rates actually indicate that Protoss is the weakest race at the moment. I don't get this "statistics tell us otherwise" argument. Copy pasted my post from another thread I don't quite understand this argument - No ladder game is independent in determining your skill level, as you seem to be posting this on every thread.
If protoss is winning a lot of PvT and is getting ranked at a higher level due to ostensible imbalance, that could be a plausible explanation of why they're losing all the PvZ - because winning all their PvT has inflated their MMR. The zergs they are facing could be much more skilled relative to their rank compared to the protoss.
Or it could be a combination of both - PvT is too strong, PvZ is too weak etc. I just don't get how statistics can measure this because you're being readjusted to face opponents that are similarly ranked to you, whether they got their through imbalance or not!
It's also the reason why I'm taking the pros opinion much more over empty statistics over every league. Except it's not about the ladder at all, but about tournaments. High profile tournaments attract the most skilled players of all races, and if Protoss has a win chance of around 48% vs T and 41 or 42% vs Zerg, what's your explanation then? Protoss pros are just worse than T and Z pros?
We haven't had that many korean games, you can't really say "it's demonstrated that protoss is weaker because of these stats" right now. You can say there's no statistical basis for claiming T is underpowered right now, though. Which would be true.
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Fiddler's Green42661 Posts
There wont ever be enough Korean games as this year will have the least amount ever in SC2 (excepting 2010).
This is probably why they are so much more reactionary.
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On January 12 2016 10:05 stuchiu wrote:
There wont ever be enough Korean games as this year will have the least amount ever in SC2 (excepting 2010).
This is probably why they are so much more reactionary.
Then we might consider going from "enough" statistical indication to "some" statistical indication.
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On January 12 2016 10:01 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 09:49 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 09:37 coolprogrammingstuff wrote:On January 12 2016 08:16 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 05:24 hunterzubrus wrote:
Protoss is insane at the moment. I don't understand why they needed to buff photon overcharge so much. It's crazy that a mothership core pops out and instantly able to overcharge two pylons. Also, adepts are super strong with both tanking and shade abilities. Not to mention the stupid WP pickup range. WTF was blizzard thinking? And all you Protoss players complaining about the pros being salty.... Think for a second that livelihood of these players depends on this game being balanced. Of course they're going to be salty when Protoss is completely broken at the moment. David Kim, please wake up and nerf this stupid race. What on earth are you talking about? Win rates actually indicate that Protoss is the weakest race at the moment. I don't get this "statistics tell us otherwise" argument. Copy pasted my post from another thread I don't quite understand this argument - No ladder game is independent in determining your skill level, as you seem to be posting this on every thread.
If protoss is winning a lot of PvT and is getting ranked at a higher level due to ostensible imbalance, that could be a plausible explanation of why they're losing all the PvZ - because winning all their PvT has inflated their MMR. The zergs they are facing could be much more skilled relative to their rank compared to the protoss.
Or it could be a combination of both - PvT is too strong, PvZ is too weak etc. I just don't get how statistics can measure this because you're being readjusted to face opponents that are similarly ranked to you, whether they got their through imbalance or not!
It's also the reason why I'm taking the pros opinion much more over empty statistics over every league. Except it's not about the ladder at all, but about tournaments. High profile tournaments attract the most skilled players of all races, and if Protoss has a win chance of around 48% vs T and 41 or 42% vs Zerg, what's your explanation then? Protoss pros are just worse than T and Z pros? We haven't had that many korean games, you can't really say "it's demonstrated that protoss is weaker because of these stats" right now. You can say there's no statistical basis for claiming T is underpowered right now, though. Which would be true.
I'm aware that the small sample size is problematic. Nevertheless it's the best piece of info we have to go on. A couple of hundred games at the highest level AND in a tournament setting (meaning it's about money and pros are therefore doing whatever it takes to win) have a much higher significance than interviews with a handful of pros about racial balance.
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On January 12 2016 10:05 stuchiu wrote:
There wont ever be enough Korean games as this year will have the least amount ever in SC2 (excepting 2010).
This is probably why they are so much more reactionary.
On January 12 2016 10:01 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 09:49 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 09:37 coolprogrammingstuff wrote:On January 12 2016 08:16 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 05:24 hunterzubrus wrote:
Protoss is insane at the moment. I don't understand why they needed to buff photon overcharge so much. It's crazy that a mothership core pops out and instantly able to overcharge two pylons. Also, adepts are super strong with both tanking and shade abilities. Not to mention the stupid WP pickup range. WTF was blizzard thinking? And all you Protoss players complaining about the pros being salty.... Think for a second that livelihood of these players depends on this game being balanced. Of course they're going to be salty when Protoss is completely broken at the moment. David Kim, please wake up and nerf this stupid race. What on earth are you talking about? Win rates actually indicate that Protoss is the weakest race at the moment. I don't get this "statistics tell us otherwise" argument. Copy pasted my post from another thread I don't quite understand this argument - No ladder game is independent in determining your skill level, as you seem to be posting this on every thread.
If protoss is winning a lot of PvT and is getting ranked at a higher level due to ostensible imbalance, that could be a plausible explanation of why they're losing all the PvZ - because winning all their PvT has inflated their MMR. The zergs they are facing could be much more skilled relative to their rank compared to the protoss.
Or it could be a combination of both - PvT is too strong, PvZ is too weak etc. I just don't get how statistics can measure this because you're being readjusted to face opponents that are similarly ranked to you, whether they got their through imbalance or not!
It's also the reason why I'm taking the pros opinion much more over empty statistics over every league. Except it's not about the ladder at all, but about tournaments. High profile tournaments attract the most skilled players of all races, and if Protoss has a win chance of around 48% vs T and 41 or 42% vs Zerg, what's your explanation then? Protoss pros are just worse than T and Z pros? We haven't had that many korean games, you can't really say "it's demonstrated that protoss is weaker because of these stats" right now. You can say there's no statistical basis for claiming T is underpowered right now, though. Which would be true.
Ummm, guys. There are enough games. Aligulac. And they say Z > P. Probably more than 55% winrate.
And that TvZ and TvP are not far off from 50%.
I posted that just on the top of this page.
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On January 12 2016 09:48 Cascade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 07:19 A_needle_jog wrote:
In my opinion balance is : T>Z>P>T . (same opinion like good korean pros).
[...]
Pro gamer koreans say TvZ is currently 70%:30% in favor of Terran. I think is right for korea region Well, luckily we don't have to rely on your opinion or what you think, or what you say that the progamers say that the winrate is. Because we have the data, which says that Z > P (probably more than 55%), but there is no significant differences from 50-50 in TvZ or TvP. From aligulac, over last month, using all games, or restricting to GSL and SSL, as you want. December 2015, GSL in 2016 only. All gives the same result. Z > P, no signal in TvP or TvZ. So either the pros are too biased to count (possible), or you are not accurately reporting what the pros are saying (also possible). So yeah, you've been complaining about how the phoneix opener was OP and made ZvP impossible to play for some while. How does that fit with the sub 45% winrate in PvZ in Korean pro games? How does it fit with the 40.5% PvZ winrate in GSL over 185 games in 2016? The pros in GSL still haven't caught on to your insight about the phoenix? Or maybe (gasp!) you jumped to conclusions too fast when you claimed OP on the phoenxies?? Maybe you were a bit biased as you are a zerg player yourself that like hydras, which happen to not be the right answer to mass phoenix??? Maybe time to reconsider your opinions when they conflict with data, what do you think? I'm kindof surprised how everyone are obsessed with nerfing the adept, when the big shouting problem clearly is that zerg is beating the crap out of protoss... + Show Spoiler [personal bias disclaimer] +I am a zerg. A crappy zerg, like gold on EU or something like that. I'm also a bit Terran, even crappier. I'm not good at playing sc2, but I am good at reading stats... So yes, I am arguing against my personal racial interest, because that is what the data shows.
I have to say I find your post a little bit offensive. I feel sad when I read it like someone is hating me for just saying what other koreans are saying 
I only quoted what Soulkey saying
(Soulkey is very good player. I look up to him  )
"Soulkey
Adept always makes Protoss ahead. I think they need to nerf Adept's cooldown. We can't hold Adept with Zerglings but if we make Roach, Adept is so fast so we still get damaged.
I also think Liberator is very strong in early TvZ. That's why even Terran pro interviewed themselves that balance is not 50:50 its T 70:30 Z."
Also I tried to look for answers for phoenix how to win with skill against phoenix. You are hurting me, because I tried to improve my game and now you blame me and insult me. I feel sad now -____- 
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On January 12 2016 10:35 Cascade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 10:05 stuchiu wrote:
There wont ever be enough Korean games as this year will have the least amount ever in SC2 (excepting 2010).
This is probably why they are so much more reactionary. Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 10:01 Nebuchad wrote:On January 12 2016 09:49 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 09:37 coolprogrammingstuff wrote:On January 12 2016 08:16 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 05:24 hunterzubrus wrote:
Protoss is insane at the moment. I don't understand why they needed to buff photon overcharge so much. It's crazy that a mothership core pops out and instantly able to overcharge two pylons. Also, adepts are super strong with both tanking and shade abilities. Not to mention the stupid WP pickup range. WTF was blizzard thinking? And all you Protoss players complaining about the pros being salty.... Think for a second that livelihood of these players depends on this game being balanced. Of course they're going to be salty when Protoss is completely broken at the moment. David Kim, please wake up and nerf this stupid race. What on earth are you talking about? Win rates actually indicate that Protoss is the weakest race at the moment. I don't get this "statistics tell us otherwise" argument. Copy pasted my post from another thread I don't quite understand this argument - No ladder game is independent in determining your skill level, as you seem to be posting this on every thread.
If protoss is winning a lot of PvT and is getting ranked at a higher level due to ostensible imbalance, that could be a plausible explanation of why they're losing all the PvZ - because winning all their PvT has inflated their MMR. The zergs they are facing could be much more skilled relative to their rank compared to the protoss.
Or it could be a combination of both - PvT is too strong, PvZ is too weak etc. I just don't get how statistics can measure this because you're being readjusted to face opponents that are similarly ranked to you, whether they got their through imbalance or not!
It's also the reason why I'm taking the pros opinion much more over empty statistics over every league. Except it's not about the ladder at all, but about tournaments. High profile tournaments attract the most skilled players of all races, and if Protoss has a win chance of around 48% vs T and 41 or 42% vs Zerg, what's your explanation then? Protoss pros are just worse than T and Z pros? We haven't had that many korean games, you can't really say "it's demonstrated that protoss is weaker because of these stats" right now. You can say there's no statistical basis for claiming T is underpowered right now, though. Which would be true. Ummm, guys. There are enough games. Aligulac. And they say Z > P. Probably more than 55% winrate. And that TvZ and TvP are not far off from 50%. I posted that just on the top of this page.
You need to make an effort clear out the crud from aligulac in order for it to be a useful set of statistics. It's flooded with games that aren't great. You also need to clear out the qualifiers. For example, the first GSL pre-season qual had 7 no-name protoss getting beaten by pro zergs vs 1 no-name zerg being beaten by a pro protoss. That's a around a 12 game net to zerg, or ~15-20% of the PvZ games in that tournament.
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On January 12 2016 11:28 TheWinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 10:35 Cascade wrote:On January 12 2016 10:05 stuchiu wrote:
There wont ever be enough Korean games as this year will have the least amount ever in SC2 (excepting 2010).
This is probably why they are so much more reactionary. On January 12 2016 10:01 Nebuchad wrote:On January 12 2016 09:49 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 09:37 coolprogrammingstuff wrote:On January 12 2016 08:16 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 05:24 hunterzubrus wrote:
Protoss is insane at the moment. I don't understand why they needed to buff photon overcharge so much. It's crazy that a mothership core pops out and instantly able to overcharge two pylons. Also, adepts are super strong with both tanking and shade abilities. Not to mention the stupid WP pickup range. WTF was blizzard thinking? And all you Protoss players complaining about the pros being salty.... Think for a second that livelihood of these players depends on this game being balanced. Of course they're going to be salty when Protoss is completely broken at the moment. David Kim, please wake up and nerf this stupid race. What on earth are you talking about? Win rates actually indicate that Protoss is the weakest race at the moment. I don't get this "statistics tell us otherwise" argument. Copy pasted my post from another thread I don't quite understand this argument - No ladder game is independent in determining your skill level, as you seem to be posting this on every thread.
If protoss is winning a lot of PvT and is getting ranked at a higher level due to ostensible imbalance, that could be a plausible explanation of why they're losing all the PvZ - because winning all their PvT has inflated their MMR. The zergs they are facing could be much more skilled relative to their rank compared to the protoss.
Or it could be a combination of both - PvT is too strong, PvZ is too weak etc. I just don't get how statistics can measure this because you're being readjusted to face opponents that are similarly ranked to you, whether they got their through imbalance or not!
It's also the reason why I'm taking the pros opinion much more over empty statistics over every league. Except it's not about the ladder at all, but about tournaments. High profile tournaments attract the most skilled players of all races, and if Protoss has a win chance of around 48% vs T and 41 or 42% vs Zerg, what's your explanation then? Protoss pros are just worse than T and Z pros? We haven't had that many korean games, you can't really say "it's demonstrated that protoss is weaker because of these stats" right now. You can say there's no statistical basis for claiming T is underpowered right now, though. Which would be true. Ummm, guys. There are enough games. Aligulac. And they say Z > P. Probably more than 55% winrate. And that TvZ and TvP are not far off from 50%. I posted that just on the top of this page. You need to make an effort clear out the crud from aligulac in order for it to be a useful statistic. It's flooded with games that aren't great.
Thank you for great post. I think too that it is not best information to look at sites like that. I think korean GSL and korea in general results are very important. In my eyes we will get a better view in one month when we have seen more games in korea
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On January 12 2016 11:32 A_needle_jog wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 11:28 TheWinks wrote:On January 12 2016 10:35 Cascade wrote:On January 12 2016 10:05 stuchiu wrote:
There wont ever be enough Korean games as this year will have the least amount ever in SC2 (excepting 2010).
This is probably why they are so much more reactionary. On January 12 2016 10:01 Nebuchad wrote:On January 12 2016 09:49 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 09:37 coolprogrammingstuff wrote:On January 12 2016 08:16 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 05:24 hunterzubrus wrote:
Protoss is insane at the moment. I don't understand why they needed to buff photon overcharge so much. It's crazy that a mothership core pops out and instantly able to overcharge two pylons. Also, adepts are super strong with both tanking and shade abilities. Not to mention the stupid WP pickup range. WTF was blizzard thinking? And all you Protoss players complaining about the pros being salty.... Think for a second that livelihood of these players depends on this game being balanced. Of course they're going to be salty when Protoss is completely broken at the moment. David Kim, please wake up and nerf this stupid race. What on earth are you talking about? Win rates actually indicate that Protoss is the weakest race at the moment. I don't get this "statistics tell us otherwise" argument. Copy pasted my post from another thread I don't quite understand this argument - No ladder game is independent in determining your skill level, as you seem to be posting this on every thread.
If protoss is winning a lot of PvT and is getting ranked at a higher level due to ostensible imbalance, that could be a plausible explanation of why they're losing all the PvZ - because winning all their PvT has inflated their MMR. The zergs they are facing could be much more skilled relative to their rank compared to the protoss.
Or it could be a combination of both - PvT is too strong, PvZ is too weak etc. I just don't get how statistics can measure this because you're being readjusted to face opponents that are similarly ranked to you, whether they got their through imbalance or not!
It's also the reason why I'm taking the pros opinion much more over empty statistics over every league. Except it's not about the ladder at all, but about tournaments. High profile tournaments attract the most skilled players of all races, and if Protoss has a win chance of around 48% vs T and 41 or 42% vs Zerg, what's your explanation then? Protoss pros are just worse than T and Z pros? We haven't had that many korean games, you can't really say "it's demonstrated that protoss is weaker because of these stats" right now. You can say there's no statistical basis for claiming T is underpowered right now, though. Which would be true. Ummm, guys. There are enough games. Aligulac. And they say Z > P. Probably more than 55% winrate. And that TvZ and TvP are not far off from 50%. I posted that just on the top of this page. You need to make an effort clear out the crud from aligulac in order for it to be a useful statistic. It's flooded with games that aren't great. Thank you for great post. I think too that it is not best information to look at sites like that. I think korean GSL and korea in general results are very important. In my eyes we will get a better view in one month when we have seen more games in korea
Aligulac accounts for all games, including the ones in Korea. It is an excellent website. The problem is when people base their entire thought process or argument on Aligulac's broadest, unfiltered observations.
As TheWinks demonstrates, when sample size is so small, even assumptions like "similar amounts of no name players from all races attend qualifiers, therefore the stats are skewed proportionally for all three races, therefore we don't need to manually sift through them" go right out the window.
Statistics are only as useful as the analysis that follows.
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On January 12 2016 11:22 A_needle_jog wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 09:48 Cascade wrote:On January 12 2016 07:19 A_needle_jog wrote:
In my opinion balance is : T>Z>P>T . (same opinion like good korean pros).
[...]
Pro gamer koreans say TvZ is currently 70%:30% in favor of Terran. I think is right for korea region Well, luckily we don't have to rely on your opinion or what you think, or what you say that the progamers say that the winrate is. Because we have the data, which says that Z > P (probably more than 55%), but there is no significant differences from 50-50 in TvZ or TvP. From aligulac, over last month, using all games, or restricting to GSL and SSL, as you want. December 2015, GSL in 2016 only. All gives the same result. Z > P, no signal in TvP or TvZ. So either the pros are too biased to count (possible), or you are not accurately reporting what the pros are saying (also possible). So yeah, you've been complaining about how the phoneix opener was OP and made ZvP impossible to play for some while. How does that fit with the sub 45% winrate in PvZ in Korean pro games? How does it fit with the 40.5% PvZ winrate in GSL over 185 games in 2016? The pros in GSL still haven't caught on to your insight about the phoenix? Or maybe (gasp!) you jumped to conclusions too fast when you claimed OP on the phoenxies?? Maybe you were a bit biased as you are a zerg player yourself that like hydras, which happen to not be the right answer to mass phoenix??? Maybe time to reconsider your opinions when they conflict with data, what do you think? I'm kindof surprised how everyone are obsessed with nerfing the adept, when the big shouting problem clearly is that zerg is beating the crap out of protoss... + Show Spoiler [personal bias disclaimer] +I am a zerg. A crappy zerg, like gold on EU or something like that. I'm also a bit Terran, even crappier. I'm not good at playing sc2, but I am good at reading stats... So yes, I am arguing against my personal racial interest, because that is what the data shows. I have to say I find your post a little bit offensive. I feel sad when I read it like someone is hating me for just saying what other koreans are saying I only quoted what Soulkey saying (Soulkey is very good player. I look up to him ) Show nested quote +"Soulkey
Adept always makes Protoss ahead. I think they need to nerf Adept's cooldown. We can't hold Adept with Zerglings but if we make Roach, Adept is so fast so we still get damaged.
I also think Liberator is very strong in early TvZ. That's why even Terran pro interviewed themselves that balance is not 50:50 its T 70:30 Z." Also I tried to look for answers for phoenix how to win with skill against phoenix. You are hurting me, because I tried to improve my game and now you blame me and insult me. I feel sad now -____-
When you first came here you would insult posters right and left happily. When they disapproved of you insulting them, I remember you told one to "fight like a man".
Here I am calling you out on something you have been complaining about loudly for quite some time. Showing data that is in direct conflict with what you are saying. I'm going pretty hard on you, but I feel I am not insulting you more than calling you biased and wrong in the phoenix case.  I know you are a good sc2 players with a lot of knowledge, I am just trying to get you to take your head out of your zerg-biased bag. So what you SHOULD do is either:
1) Try to explain why your idea is still valid, despite the data.
2) admit that maybe you were wrong.
Instead, you choose to pull out largest number of sad smilies I've seen in a long while, and pretend that you are hurt. You completely avoid the discussion about how your previous rants were unfounded.
Is that how "a man" reacts? Avoids discussion and starts crying??
IS IT???
So please, let's try to not take everything so personal, and let's together try to understand what is going on in a more objective way. I know it's hard, but I think you can do it.
On January 12 2016 11:28 TheWinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 10:35 Cascade wrote:On January 12 2016 10:05 stuchiu wrote:
There wont ever be enough Korean games as this year will have the least amount ever in SC2 (excepting 2010).
This is probably why they are so much more reactionary. On January 12 2016 10:01 Nebuchad wrote:On January 12 2016 09:49 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 09:37 coolprogrammingstuff wrote:On January 12 2016 08:16 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 05:24 hunterzubrus wrote:
Protoss is insane at the moment. I don't understand why they needed to buff photon overcharge so much. It's crazy that a mothership core pops out and instantly able to overcharge two pylons. Also, adepts are super strong with both tanking and shade abilities. Not to mention the stupid WP pickup range. WTF was blizzard thinking? And all you Protoss players complaining about the pros being salty.... Think for a second that livelihood of these players depends on this game being balanced. Of course they're going to be salty when Protoss is completely broken at the moment. David Kim, please wake up and nerf this stupid race. What on earth are you talking about? Win rates actually indicate that Protoss is the weakest race at the moment. I don't get this "statistics tell us otherwise" argument. Copy pasted my post from another thread I don't quite understand this argument - No ladder game is independent in determining your skill level, as you seem to be posting this on every thread.
If protoss is winning a lot of PvT and is getting ranked at a higher level due to ostensible imbalance, that could be a plausible explanation of why they're losing all the PvZ - because winning all their PvT has inflated their MMR. The zergs they are facing could be much more skilled relative to their rank compared to the protoss.
Or it could be a combination of both - PvT is too strong, PvZ is too weak etc. I just don't get how statistics can measure this because you're being readjusted to face opponents that are similarly ranked to you, whether they got their through imbalance or not!
It's also the reason why I'm taking the pros opinion much more over empty statistics over every league. Except it's not about the ladder at all, but about tournaments. High profile tournaments attract the most skilled players of all races, and if Protoss has a win chance of around 48% vs T and 41 or 42% vs Zerg, what's your explanation then? Protoss pros are just worse than T and Z pros? We haven't had that many korean games, you can't really say "it's demonstrated that protoss is weaker because of these stats" right now. You can say there's no statistical basis for claiming T is underpowered right now, though. Which would be true. Ummm, guys. There are enough games. Aligulac. And they say Z > P. Probably more than 55% winrate. And that TvZ and TvP are not far off from 50%. I posted that just on the top of this page. You need to make an effort clear out the crud from aligulac in order for it to be a useful set of statistics. It's flooded with games that aren't great. You also need to clear out the qualifiers. For example, the first GSL pre-season qual had 7 no-name protoss getting beaten by pro zergs vs 1 no-name zerg being beaten by a pro protoss. That's a around a 12 game net to zerg, or ~15-20% of the PvZ games in that tournament.
Why should I filter the aligulac data? They already got a good selection. We have also gone through a lot of iterations filtering different time periods, restricting to GSL, or GSL and SSL, and so on. They all show the same thing. Z > P. Nothing for TvP or TvZ.
How do you suggest I select which players aren't good enough? The players that lose? What makes you think that this percieved OP-ness of adept-WP is only present for the top 30 players in the world, but not seen in the top 100? Why do we have reason to think that the KR qualifiers are not capable of properly executing the OP adept-WP? Or are you saying that the zergs are just more skilled than the protosses all of a sudden in lotv? Then why don't we see zergs beating the terrans as well, or toss lose terrans?
You can always ask for more filters, and I am sure that if you try sufficiently many different subsets, and cherry-pick games and players, you can find any signal you want. P > T, or T > P or what you want. And you can easily filter it down to a sufficiently small number of games to get rid of the Z > P significance. The point is that you need to select your samples BEFORE you do the analysis, or you get confirmation bias.
The good thing with aligulac is that it is a pre-selected unbiased selection of games, and a large number of them. And the signal is clear. There is a reason to track evolution over time, but further calls for selecting subsets of the data sound really desperate to me...
So what if we accept that the stats are what they are, and instead start thinking of WHY we see what we see?
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On January 12 2016 13:03 pure.Wasted wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 11:32 A_needle_jog wrote:On January 12 2016 11:28 TheWinks wrote:On January 12 2016 10:35 Cascade wrote:On January 12 2016 10:05 stuchiu wrote:
There wont ever be enough Korean games as this year will have the least amount ever in SC2 (excepting 2010).
This is probably why they are so much more reactionary. On January 12 2016 10:01 Nebuchad wrote:On January 12 2016 09:49 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 09:37 coolprogrammingstuff wrote:On January 12 2016 08:16 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 05:24 hunterzubrus wrote:
Protoss is insane at the moment. I don't understand why they needed to buff photon overcharge so much. It's crazy that a mothership core pops out and instantly able to overcharge two pylons. Also, adepts are super strong with both tanking and shade abilities. Not to mention the stupid WP pickup range. WTF was blizzard thinking? And all you Protoss players complaining about the pros being salty.... Think for a second that livelihood of these players depends on this game being balanced. Of course they're going to be salty when Protoss is completely broken at the moment. David Kim, please wake up and nerf this stupid race. What on earth are you talking about? Win rates actually indicate that Protoss is the weakest race at the moment. I don't get this "statistics tell us otherwise" argument. Copy pasted my post from another thread I don't quite understand this argument - No ladder game is independent in determining your skill level, as you seem to be posting this on every thread.
If protoss is winning a lot of PvT and is getting ranked at a higher level due to ostensible imbalance, that could be a plausible explanation of why they're losing all the PvZ - because winning all their PvT has inflated their MMR. The zergs they are facing could be much more skilled relative to their rank compared to the protoss.
Or it could be a combination of both - PvT is too strong, PvZ is too weak etc. I just don't get how statistics can measure this because you're being readjusted to face opponents that are similarly ranked to you, whether they got their through imbalance or not!
It's also the reason why I'm taking the pros opinion much more over empty statistics over every league. Except it's not about the ladder at all, but about tournaments. High profile tournaments attract the most skilled players of all races, and if Protoss has a win chance of around 48% vs T and 41 or 42% vs Zerg, what's your explanation then? Protoss pros are just worse than T and Z pros? We haven't had that many korean games, you can't really say "it's demonstrated that protoss is weaker because of these stats" right now. You can say there's no statistical basis for claiming T is underpowered right now, though. Which would be true. Ummm, guys. There are enough games. Aligulac. And they say Z > P. Probably more than 55% winrate. And that TvZ and TvP are not far off from 50%. I posted that just on the top of this page. You need to make an effort clear out the crud from aligulac in order for it to be a useful statistic. It's flooded with games that aren't great. Thank you for great post. I think too that it is not best information to look at sites like that. I think korean GSL and korea in general results are very important. In my eyes we will get a better view in one month when we have seen more games in korea Aligulac accounts for all games, including the ones in Korea. It is an excellent website. The problem is when people base their entire thought process or argument on Aligulac's broadest, unfiltered observations. As TheWinks demonstrates, when sample size is so small, even assumptions like "similar amounts of no name players from all races attend qualifiers, therefore the stats are skewed proportionally for all three races, therefore we don't need to manually sift through them" go right out the window.
That's included in the analysis...
I lowered the effective degrees of freedom more than a factor two to account for good or bad players playing several games against each other. I'm talking about this post. That is exactly the effect you are talking about, but feel free to claim that it ruins the analysis despite not knowing anything about it, why not.
And you know what? The f-ing signal is still there!
GAH, people really only see what they want to see!!! I'm going a bit mad I think.
I should go do something else.
On January 12 2016 13:03 pure.Wasted wrote:
Statistics are only as useful as the analysis that follows.
Comments are only as useful as the knowledge of the poster...
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On January 12 2016 13:07 Cascade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2016 13:03 pure.Wasted wrote:On January 12 2016 11:32 A_needle_jog wrote:On January 12 2016 11:28 TheWinks wrote:On January 12 2016 10:35 Cascade wrote:On January 12 2016 10:05 stuchiu wrote:
There wont ever be enough Korean games as this year will have the least amount ever in SC2 (excepting 2010).
This is probably why they are so much more reactionary. On January 12 2016 10:01 Nebuchad wrote:On January 12 2016 09:49 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 09:37 coolprogrammingstuff wrote:On January 12 2016 08:16 CheddarToss wrote:On January 12 2016 05:24 hunterzubrus wrote:
Protoss is insane at the moment. I don't understand why they needed to buff photon overcharge so much. It's crazy that a mothership core pops out and instantly able to overcharge two pylons. Also, adepts are super strong with both tanking and shade abilities. Not to mention the stupid WP pickup range. WTF was blizzard thinking? And all you Protoss players complaining about the pros being salty.... Think for a second that livelihood of these players depends on this game being balanced. Of course they're going to be salty when Protoss is completely broken at the moment. David Kim, please wake up and nerf this stupid race. What on earth are you talking about? Win rates actually indicate that Protoss is the weakest race at the moment. I don't get this "statistics tell us otherwise" argument. Copy pasted my post from another thread I don't quite understand this argument - No ladder game is independent in determining your skill level, as you seem to be posting this on every thread.
If protoss is winning a lot of PvT and is getting ranked at a higher level due to ostensible imbalance, that could be a plausible explanation of why they're losing all the PvZ - because winning all their PvT has inflated their MMR. The zergs they are facing could be much more skilled relative to their rank compared to the protoss.
Or it could be a combination of both - PvT is too strong, PvZ is too weak etc. I just don't get how statistics can measure this because you're being readjusted to face opponents that are similarly ranked to you, whether they got their through imbalance or not!
It's also the reason why I'm taking the pros opinion much more over empty statistics over every league. Except it's not about the ladder at all, but about tournaments. High profile tournaments attract the most skilled players of all races, and if Protoss has a win chance of around 48% vs T and 41 or 42% vs Zerg, what's your explanation then? Protoss pros are just worse than T and Z pros? We haven't had that many korean games, you can't really say "it's demonstrated that protoss is weaker because of these stats" right now. You can say there's no statistical basis for claiming T is underpowered right now, though. Which would be true. Ummm, guys. There are enough games. Aligulac. And they say Z > P. Probably more than 55% winrate. And that TvZ and TvP are not far off from 50%. I posted that just on the top of this page. You need to make an effort clear out the crud from aligulac in order for it to be a useful statistic. It's flooded with games that aren't great. Thank you for great post. I think too that it is not best information to look at sites like that. I think korean GSL and korea in general results are very important. In my eyes we will get a better view in one month when we have seen more games in korea Aligulac accounts for all games, including the ones in Korea. It is an excellent website. The problem is when people base their entire thought process or argument on Aligulac's broadest, unfiltered observations. As TheWinks demonstrates, when sample size is so small, even assumptions like "similar amounts of no name players from all races attend qualifiers, therefore the stats are skewed proportionally for all three races, therefore we don't need to manually sift through them" go right out the window. That's included in the analysis... I lowered the effective degrees of freedom more than a factor two to account for good or bad players playing several games against each other. That is exactly the effect you are talking about... And you know what? The f-ing signal is still there! GAH, people really only see what they want to see!!! I'm going a bit mad I think. I should go do soemthing else.
I was talking about general theory. Of course I agree that PvZ needs help. But I disagree with your original notion that people are blind or biased not to consider it the #1 priority. For instance, TvP may point to severe design flaws while PvZ only has balance ones. And it may be that design flaws should be solved first, because their impact is broader.
I personally don't weigh in on PvZ because I approach most SC2 discussions looking at design, and for ZvP I wouldn't know where to start.
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Warp Prisms don't cost gas!?!?!? Now im REALLY pissed. That's some grade A Bulllllll
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On January 12 2016 13:04 Cascade wrote:
Why should I filter the aligulac data? They already got a good selection. We have also gone through a lot of iterations filtering different time periods, restricting to GSL, or GSL and SSL, and so on. They all show the same thing. Z > P. Nothing for TvP or TvZ.
But yet a reasonable number of protoss made their way through the qualifiers and performed just fine, including winning both pre-season tournaments. This is big red flag that there might be something more here.
On January 12 2016 13:04 Cascade wrote:How do you suggest I select which players aren't good enough? The players that lose? What makes you think that this percieved OP-ness of adept-WP is only present for the top 30 players in the world, but not seen in the top 100? Why do we have reason to think that the KR qualifiers are not capable of properly executing the OP adept-WP? Or are you saying that the zergs are just more skilled than the protosses all of a sudden in lotv? Then why don't we see zergs beating the terrans as well, or toss lose terrans?
Excluding non-notable players that get dunked on (the only exception is the one that beat Ryung from GSL quals) from GSL/SSL statistics is probably a pretty good idea. It's hard to draw the line, but the thing is, these things don't just cancel out. They're problems that are influencing the top lines in a major way.
On January 12 2016 13:04 Cascade wrote:
The good thing with aligulac is that it is a pre-selected unbiased selection of games, and a large number of them. And the signal is clear. There is a reason to track evolution over time, but further calls for selecting subsets of the data sound really desperate to me...
This isn't necessarily true either. It's also self-selected. I've played in a tournament before and had some opponents report the games to aligulac and others not. I choose not to because I don't think my games matter. Another example of influence is in Proleague. Who's being fielded in proleague is heavily influenced by the state of the game. In 2014 there were tons of protoss being fielded and very few terrans. The average skill level of those terrans was higher than the protoss. If you just looked at the win rates, things looked pretty reasonable, but when you considered the number of benched terrans vs played protoss, you could realize there was a problem.
On January 12 2016 13:04 Cascade wrote:
So what if we accept that the stats are what they are, and instead start thinking of WHY we see what we see?
You can choose to do that, and I can choose to dismiss your conclusions based on your assumptions of the quality of your data.
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My problem with this is that winrate isn't that accurate to discuss balance. If there are two player playing race X in the entire RO64, and they both get kicked out in the RO16, then the conclusion would be that they have a 50% winrate, so race X is balanced. So imo win rate itself is a flawed method to completely base balance on.
However if you do it, using aligulac stats is alot better than just looking at GSL. The sample size of the GSL is simply way too small if you want to use statistics. And no, this is not about the number of games, but the number of players. If I play a 1000 games vs Soulkey you can with a certainty of more than 99% conclude that Zerg is stronger than Terran. And it would be incorrect, because what you should have found is that Soulkey playing Zerg is with more than 99% certain stronger than me player Terran. No matter how many games you are going to get from GSL, the actual number of players behind that stays quite limitted.
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I don't think anyone can defend warp prism/adept in early game as fair stuff. Also PvZ is closer to 40-60 than 45-55 right now.
Both are true and need to be adressed imo.
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Russian Federation93 Posts
On January 12 2016 04:05 p68 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2016 18:11 sh1RoKen wrote:
WoL and HotS TvP:
Protoss is trying to survive on 3 bases vs insanely powerfull terran mine/MM simultaneous drops which are never unprofitable + very strong MMM steam/+1 timing attacks. If protoss survives, he can fight with equally strong Colossus+Templar+Gateway army vs Viking+Ghost+MMM.
LotV TvP:
Terran is crying like a little girl because Protoss can now harass with power of 30% what terran has in only 1 location with 4 second warp on a Prism which can't move half of the time and can't pickup all army and fly away. If terran survives, he can't lose with Liberators + MMM which are twice as mobile as protoss army and has ultimate anti-air and anti-ground tools.
May be terrans just need to stop playing WoL builds for 5 years and change something? I get your sentiment, but the comparison between the warp prism and medivac is problematic. Warp prisms and medivacs have the same storage capacity (8), it's just that Protoss players only build 1 in the current meta.
Protoss only build 1 prism because they are not scaling very good. 3 prisms will do nothing if your harass fails and you have to take a direct fight.
On January 12 2016 04:05 p68 wrote:
Another reason you can't pickup the "whole army" is due to its distinct advantage: you can warp in units wherever you'd like! And if you warp in units, you might exceed the cargo capacity, yes...And yes, it immobilizes itself to allow for such a powerful ability. Strange that was somehow twisted into an overall disadvantage...
It is a huge disadvantage in a harassment conditions. You want to kill harvesters. If you can't kill harvesters, you want to lose nothing, fly away and look for another opportunity to do so.
When you unload from 2 medevacs, see the army coming, load and fly away very fast - good harassment conditions. You've killed some workers and lose nothing.
When you warping from 8 gateways for 4 seconds while all workers are escaping, see the army coming, load only 4 units, wait until prism became movable and fly away - bad harassment conditions. You've killed some workers only if your opponent has a bad reaction, always lose everything above 4 units and you have a higher risk of losing your prism.
If you don't face a drop defence, MMM has a much better dps to both workers and buildings than any protoss gateway mix.
If you can't defend one warp on prism with your army, you just was too greedy and get punished because MMM is stronger than adepts without upgrade and equally strong if they have the upgrade (resource wise).
On January 12 2016 04:05 p68 wrote:
I mean, hell, you can send an empty warp prism to an enemy base and just build the units you'd like to harass with when you arrive.
Yes, prism is better only if you get caught in an open space by air units. But look how much better medevac is in all other conditions above.
On January 12 2016 04:05 p68 wrote:
Regarding the "only 1 location" comment, isn't that up to the player...? You can build more than one warp prism you know...or you can send adept shades into one location for harass, and drop/warp-in another location simultaneously.
Prism harassment potential is limited to a gateway amount. It doesn't matter, how much prisms you have, you can't warp more than %gateway count% units. If you want to drop or drop+warp, prism loses all it's advantages and become just a bad medevac in a harass and a dead limit in a direct fight.
You can't warp on a pylon to harass in LotV and protoss is weaker than terran in both simultaneous drop/warp-in or simultaneous drop/run-in due to the ~same adept mobility and worse adept dps than MMM.
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Dear blizzard. i actually miss blink all in era. I would rather stop blink all ins all over again than beeing forced to stay in my base every tvp. Protoss can harass whit adeps so easy whit no risk. and when you clear it, THey have 3 bases.. and its not possible to punish it! Nothing really works. Late game are actually even worse than hots now. Because you cant snipe templars anymore lol.. emp? oh lets make some archons. tvp is horrible atm
Tvz: Ultralisk are to strong. Maraduers suck. Liberators is easy to avoid. Fungal + ultra.. cant even land snipe. AND if youre lucky and get 40 ghost, kill all ultras, Zerg remake them. and your ghost has 0 energy. and its gg..
Yet again, terrans are forced to go Marines tank medivac in all match ups.
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EPT
