Psychopath vs Machine

by munch

We've been here before. Three times INnoVation has faced Maru; three times he's been thrown down. This year the SKT ace took two beatings, both in Proleague, in addition to the humbling thrashing that Maru handed out way back in the OSL semifinals in 2013; it's resulted in a cumulative 0-6 record against the little Psychopath of Jin Air. Their story is a common theme in SC2 history—mechanical predictability against mercurial freestyling—and oftentimes the latter comes out on top.

There are signs that we’re possibly in for a different result. Throughout the year INnoVation has shown a growing ability to adapt. For the vast majority of his career he’s picked one strategy in each matchup and rolled with it, getting by on superior mechanics and execution. Be it his MMM style in TvZ, refining the parade push style to efficient perfection, his insistence on SCV pushes in TvP, or the mech/hellbat drop style he’s preferred in TvT circa 2013, chances are you can all picture his playstyle in your mind right now. This year though, the core feature of his play that let him get away with such predictability has let him down.

It began with a barrage of losses in TvZ in the first half of 2015, as ByuL and Life revealed weaknesses in INnoVation’s macro game where previously few had been seen before. In the two years since the release of HotS, players have been getting better and better at fighting him straight up, notably DRG and Curious, but never before had we seen him truly outclassed in the matchup. We’ll likely never know why INnoVation switched to mech—whether he contributed to the KR meta shift or merely copied the latest trends on the ladder—but it’s notable that the switch coincided with the weakest displays in his career using bio. As dominant as mech seems after the fact, it still takes guts to completely retool your strongest matchup.

Given what happened recently in the Round of 8, we’re much more inclined to believe that INnoVation is finally learning to change up his style. His Bo5 showdown against Zest was the first real indication that he has what it takes in the planning department, as he unveiled a set of builds that beautifully played into the map order and his own reputation. It was even more unexpected given the incredibly standard SCV pull into loss move that he used in Proleague less than a week before, and possibly hints that he purposefully played against type to catch Zest off guard.

What does INnoVation plan to unleash tonight? We’ve seen time and time again that his late game mech TvT is some of the best in the business—think of his legendary pair of battles with TaeJa at the WCS 2013 Season 2 Finals and at last year’s Global Finals, or his dominance over Flash this year—but it’s a composition which can be beaten on larger maps by the multitasking ability of a bio player. GuMiho’s clinical dissection of INnoVation earlier this season was a perfect example of the former, while Maru’s miracle engagement in their most recent Proleague encounter showed the limitations of the latter.

The question is, does the Jin Air genius have what it takes to pull it off again? The aforementioned victory occurred in early July, when Maru was at the height of his powers. Dominant in TvT, unplayable in TvP, while being more than handy enough at early aggression against Zerg, Maru looked to be a complete player—unquestionably the in-form star of the Korean scene. While his performances are still good enough to maintain a healthy respect for his abilities, he’s tailed off since that staggering peak. Contrast an overall win rate of 67% and a 23-5 mapscore in TvT for the first half of the year to 57% and 4-6 since.

It’s particularly noteworthy that of those recent TvT defeats, three have come against mech. BrAvO and Flash (twice) both weathered the storm of early aggression to the point where Maru’s bio forces smashed impotently against a maxed out mech army. Maru’s TvZ has shown that he’s not particularly suited to the glacial pace of a positional mech game, and he lacks the patience to curb his naturally aggressive tendencies. It will be interesting to see how he intends to stop INnoVation from ever reaching the late game, and their games from 2013 will surely be in the back of the SKT ace’s mind. For better or for worse Maru’s remained true to his roots in extended series, and it’s almost certain that we’ll see cheese at some point. The question is whether INnoVation will have sufficient tactical fluidity and mental fortitude to cope with it. We might see INnoVation go on the aggressive—he’s certainly no stranger to early aggression in Bo5+ himself—and after seeing the array of strategies he unveiled against Zest, maybe the SKT coaching staff has stepped in to offer him a different perspective.

Predictions

It’s very unlikely we’ll see another 4-0 from Maru, but that’s exactly what we said back in 2013. With the benefit of two years of experience it’s difficult to see INnoVation falling for the same tricks, and given Maru’s recent high profile failures against Mech, the SKT Terran looks poised to take the series. It’s always a bit jarring to see how bare his trophy cabinet is given the dominance he’s exerted on the scene, and there’s no way he’ll be satisfied with a mere IEM trophy as his only title of the year. We may have been here before, in the wake of another flawless victory for Maru over INnoVation, but chances are we won’t be here again.

Maru 2 – 4 INnoVation