On April 22 2015 14:12 suicideyear wrote: Here's my two explanations/reasons for why the betting line ended up that skewed
1. MKP parties too hard or plays league too much prior to proleague. Someone within mvp leaks that info that MKP is super hungover or whatever and that byul was an easy bet. It spreads and more and more people bet on byul assuming MKP is going to pull a Johnny Manziel. MKP shows up shitfaced to the proleague, is too hungover to even notice creep spread, and loses the game. Guy looks really ill in the VOD facecam. MVP strips him of captaincy as punishment.
2. MKP threw the game for someone.
I mean MKP has been playing badly enough recently that I wouldn't be surprised if he literally did ignore a proxy hatch completely sincerely. But the betting line... screams 'insider info' to get odds that skewed to begin with. Can Korean police get info of bettors from these sites? Would be interesting to see the time period when the betting line was moving the most.
It clearly can't be defended that MKP didn't see the spine or the creep. As far as the far-fetched argument that he's innocent, the reasoning should be along the lines of extremely poor evaluation and extremely poor decision making based on what he saw. But it seems to me that the argument hinges on him not seeing the spine or creep for everyone else.
On April 22 2015 12:41 Bannt wrote: So people were betting large sums of money on byul winning, even when the potential profit from byuul winning was approaching zero?... ...............
Exactly. So in usual cases it was a very stupid bet to make, but if you know that ByuL is going to win then the odds doesn't matter - it's still sure money.
I just watched the match, and my opinion is that Kespa should ban him from eSports.
He saw there was no natural, he then sees the spine building at his rocks and pretends he didn't see it, he then has creep in his base for 1 minute before reacting to it.. I mean really? he builds a third CC when he knows his opponent has no natural? I mean who is he trying to fool?
Then we get pinnacle esports void all bets on the match as they detected match fixing within the bets being placed on Byul.. I mean this is clearly obvious match fixing.
I think everyone who claims mkp didn't throw on purpose is immensely delusional. I don't know if this has been done before but i am going to explain why this game is unbelievably obviously fixed to people who are not that familiar with (pro level) sc2.
First of all, we need to think logically. MKP is not stupid. He saw a late gas and pool with no natural with his scouting SCV, thus he concluded that the hatchery must be somewhere else, which is why he checked the gold bases. He KNEW there was a hatchery somewhere on the map. Upon not finding anything at the gold bases he concluded (he had to, there were no other options) that the hatch must be somewhere proxied on the map.
What would anyone right in their mind do? Check their main first. He didn't . He opened reaper, so he could scout very easily and efficiently. I can understand some arguments for leaving the first one at home to defend, but as soon as the second reaper popped there was no reason for him to not look around for the hatch with at least one of them, since his main was completely walled in. Fact is, his reapers were sitting at home the entire time because he didn't want to find the hatch., since it is very simple to win the game once you scout something like this which he didn't want, obviously.
Sadly, for him, he scouted the proxy nonetheless, in form of a spine crawler at around 4:30 (video time). Let me get this straight. The spine was visible for over 1 minute and 20 seconds of real time. Pro players look at their minimap every two or three seconds. Marineking was on one base, he didn't even have any units out on the map, so it's impossible that he was too busy to see it. He definitely saw it, maybe not immediately, but no player above gold league doesn't notice something like this in one and a half minutes. Marineking played this game for over five years, i don't have to explain that he saw it by now.
So what does he do? He starts a 3rd CC and a reactor. That is the worst response imaginable against what he SAW. He needed units, bunkers. Instead he went for the most greedy thing there was to do. Even IF we pretend he DIDN'T see the proxy hatch, he knew it was somewhere on the map due to his scouting earlier. Therefore there is absolutely no reason to go for this build.
To top that off, at around 5:30 (video time) there is creep visible inside his main base right besides the Command Center. It's just there, on his main screen, not to mention there is a huge purple blurp on the minimap. So even IF we pretend, again, he DIDN'T look the the minimap for more than 2 minutes, he definitely saw the creep there. He did not respond whatsoever. After ByuL breaks down the rocks the game is over, MKP 'tries' to defend with good micro but at that point the game was 100% over so he could finally drop his act and start playing.
So if you say 'maybe he had a bad day', please can you explain all these points i mentioned above then? That's like you saying a computer expert didn't find the button to turn his PC on because he had a bad day. No matter how bad of a day he had, the things that happened were unexplicable.
Sorry for the wall of text, and sorry if this has been explained in great detail already, but maybe i could provide some insight to those of you who didn't really get why people found this game so absurdly strange.
On April 22 2015 20:54 SuperFanBoy wrote: I just watched the match, and my opinion is that Kespa should ban him from eSports.
Unless Kespa's taking an extreme amount of time to research the issue (entirely possible, this is Kespa we're talking about), then nothing will happen. The only way anything will happen to clear things up is if the big sponsors are made aware that much of the competition is illegitimate, and threaten to withdraw their sponsorship. If one of the big 4 sponsors threatens to walk then Kespa might actually be pressured into doing something. With no sponsors there is no Korean scene, and I don't think Kespa would want that
On April 22 2015 22:45 SharkStarcraft wrote: So what does he do? He starts a 3rd CC and a reactor. That is the worst response imaginable against what he SAW. He needed units, bunkers. Instead he went for the most greedy thing there was to do. Even IF we pretend he DIDN'T see the proxy hatch, he knew it was somewhere on the map due to his scouting earlier. Therefore there is absolutely no reason to go for this build.
Can you explain why was this a terrible move? What if the Zerg put a hatch at another base to be greedy himself? Or is this map too small to risk to try to hide such a greedy hatch?
Anyway, a nice write up once again, but behold the people who don't read anything here (or anything they don't like to hear), or will try to explain you that you are a bad guy for pointing out how blatantly obvious it was, or just some random, empty moral talk in general, because those MKP posters on their wall costed money.
On April 22 2015 22:45 SharkStarcraft wrote: So what does he do? He starts a 3rd CC and a reactor. That is the worst response imaginable against what he SAW. He needed units, bunkers. Instead he went for the most greedy thing there was to do. Even IF we pretend he DIDN'T see the proxy hatch, he knew it was somewhere on the map due to his scouting earlier. Therefore there is absolutely no reason to go for this build.
Can you explain why was this a terrible move? What if the Zerg put a hatch at another base to be greedy himself? Or is this map too small to risk to try to hide such a greedy hatch?
Anyway, a nice write up once again, but behold the people who don't read anything here (or anything they don't like to hear), or will try to explain you that you are a bad guy for pointing out how blatantly obvious it was, or just some random, empty moral talk in general, because those MKP posters on their wall costed money.
Do you often find insulting people with differing opinions and straw-manning them to be a good way of convincing them to see things your way?
Anyways, commentary about how obvious the circumstances look is a red herring to the purpose of the thread, which is that MVP made a statement where they said they asked MarineKing directly if he was in on throwing the match and he said he wasn't. He was also demoted from his captaincy. There isn't too much more you can reasonably expect from a team that has to support its own player.
On April 22 2015 22:45 SharkStarcraft wrote: So what does he do? He starts a 3rd CC and a reactor. That is the worst response imaginable against what he SAW. He needed units, bunkers. Instead he went for the most greedy thing there was to do. Even IF we pretend he DIDN'T see the proxy hatch, he knew it was somewhere on the map due to his scouting earlier. Therefore there is absolutely no reason to go for this build.
Can you explain why was this a terrible move? What if the Zerg put a hatch at another base to be greedy himself? Or is this map too small to risk to try to hide such a greedy hatch?
Anyway, a nice write up once again, but behold the people who don't read anything here (or anything they don't like to hear), or will try to explain you that you are a bad guy for pointing out how blatantly obvious it was, or just some random, empty moral talk in general, because those MKP posters on their wall costed money.
Do you not play the game, or do you play protoss at a really low level? It's a terrible decision whether a terran would assume a proxy hatch next to the terran's base or a hatch at another base location, the response would be the same; to make units.
If the Terran would assume it was some bizarre mindgame where the Zerg proxy hatch to mine from a base normally, only to take your 3rd somewhere else, it makes no sense to not scout for the hatch and it's not actually possible to defend both your 2nd and 3rd to any normal Terran response and the Zerg player would lose automatically anyways. There's no reason to start a 3rd CC, just as there is no reason to not to bother to scout with the scouting scv or even to scout your own main. Was he microing units? No. Was he busy macroing? No, it's the first 5 mins of the game and he's a pro not a bronze player. He literally had a (real time) minute free to stare at his base and minimap and didn't notice the creep.
On April 22 2015 22:45 SharkStarcraft wrote: So what does he do? He starts a 3rd CC and a reactor. That is the worst response imaginable against what he SAW. He needed units, bunkers. Instead he went for the most greedy thing there was to do. Even IF we pretend he DIDN'T see the proxy hatch, he knew it was somewhere on the map due to his scouting earlier. Therefore there is absolutely no reason to go for this build.
Can you explain why was this a terrible move? What if the Zerg put a hatch at another base to be greedy himself? Or is this map too small to risk to try to hide such a greedy hatch?
Anyway, a nice write up once again, but behold the people who don't read anything here (or anything they don't like to hear), or will try to explain you that you are a bad guy for pointing out how blatantly obvious it was, or just some random, empty moral talk in general, because those MKP posters on their wall costed money.
Do you not play the game, or do you play protoss at a really low level? It's a terrible decision whether a terran would assume a proxy hatch next to the terran's base or a hatch at another base location, the response would be the same; to make units.
If the Terran would assume it was some bizarre mindgame where the Zerg proxy hatch to mine from a base normally, only to take your 3rd somewhere else, it makes no sense to not scout for the hatch and it's not actually possible to defend both your 2nd and 3rd to any normal Terran response and the Zerg player would lose automatically anyways. There's no reason to start a 3rd CC, just as there is no reason to not to bother to scout with the scouting scv or even to scout your own main. Was he microing units? No. Was he busy macroing? No, it's the first 5 mins of the game and he's a pro not a bronze player. He literally had a (real time) minute free to stare at his base and minimap and didn't notice the creep.
On April 22 2015 22:45 SharkStarcraft wrote: So what does he do? He starts a 3rd CC and a reactor. That is the worst response imaginable against what he SAW. He needed units, bunkers. Instead he went for the most greedy thing there was to do. Even IF we pretend he DIDN'T see the proxy hatch, he knew it was somewhere on the map due to his scouting earlier. Therefore there is absolutely no reason to go for this build.
Can you explain why was this a terrible move? What if the Zerg put a hatch at another base to be greedy himself? Or is this map too small to risk to try to hide such a greedy hatch?
Anyway, a nice write up once again, but behold the people who don't read anything here (or anything they don't like to hear), or will try to explain you that you are a bad guy for pointing out how blatantly obvious it was, or just some random, empty moral talk in general, because those MKP posters on their wall costed money.
It was a terrible move because like i said, there had to be a hatch somewhere on the map. The only reason to proxy a hatchery to mine from it is to take the gold, since the additional income sometimes is worth the risk of having a base that's harder to defend. On a map like this, taking a base far away from your main will cost you the game in the midgame because the terran can just attack from two angles and you cant really defend both bases, at least far less comfortably than if you just had them together. Since he scouted the gold bases it had to be an offensively placed proxy hatch, since hatches to mine from don't benefit you if they're far away unless they are in fact gold bases. Therefore going 3rd CC into reactor was the most terrible thing he could have done since the hatch had to be placed offensively.
On April 22 2015 22:45 SharkStarcraft wrote: I think everyone who claims mkp didn't throw on purpose is immensely delusional. I don't know if this has been done before but i am going to explain why this game is unbelievably obviously fixed to people who are not that familiar with (pro level) sc2.
First of all, we need to think logically. MKP is not stupid. He saw a late gas and pool with no natural with his scouting SCV, thus he concluded that the hatchery must be somewhere else, which is why he checked the gold bases. He KNEW there was a hatchery somewhere on the map. Upon not finding anything at the gold bases he concluded (he had to, there were no other options) that the hatch must be somewhere proxied on the map.
What would anyone right in their mind do? Check their main first. He didn't . He opened reaper, so he could scout very easily and efficiently. I can understand some arguments for leaving the first one at home to defend, but as soon as the second reaper popped there was no reason for him to not look around for the hatch with at least one of them, since his main was completely walled in. Fact is, his reapers were sitting at home the entire time because he didn't want to find the hatch., since it is very simple to win the game once you scout something like this which he didn't want, obviously.
Sadly, for him, he scouted the proxy nonetheless, in form of a spine crawler at around 4:30 (video time). Let me get this straight. The spine was visible for over 1 minute and 20 seconds of real time. Pro players look at their minimap every two or three seconds. Marineking was on one base, he didn't even have any units out on the map, so it's impossible that he was too busy to see it. He definitely saw it, maybe not immediately, but no player above gold league doesn't notice something like this in one and a half minutes. Marineking played this game for over five years, i don't have to explain that he saw it by now.
So what does he do? He starts a 3rd CC and a reactor. That is the worst response imaginable against what he SAW. He needed units, bunkers. Instead he went for the most greedy thing there was to do. Even IF we pretend he DIDN'T see the proxy hatch, he knew it was somewhere on the map due to his scouting earlier. Therefore there is absolutely no reason to go for this build.
To top that off, at around 5:30 (video time) there is creep visible inside his main base right besides the Command Center. It's just there, on his main screen, not to mention there is a huge purple blurp on the minimap. So even IF we pretend, again, he DIDN'T look the the minimap for more than 2 minutes, he definitely saw the creep there. He did not respond whatsoever. After ByuL breaks down the rocks the game is over, MKP 'tries' to defend with good micro but at that point the game was 100% over so he could finally drop his act and start playing.
So if you say 'maybe he had a bad day', please can you explain all these points i mentioned above then? That's like you saying a computer expert didn't find the button to turn his PC on because he had a bad day. No matter how bad of a day he had, the things that happened were unexplicable.
Sorry for the wall of text, and sorry if this has been explained in great detail already, but maybe i could provide some insight to those of you who didn't really get why people found this game so absurdly strange.
I'll make a couple points here:
-The scouting is definitely suspicious. The SCV scouts no natural, scouts the late pool (with gas first), scouts the gold bases, then goes back home to mine. I guess MK would argue he thought it was a speedling and/or baneling bust incoming, but it doesn't really explain why he wouldn't keep something outside the base to keep scouting or if he knew it was a proxy hatch, why he wouldn't keep trying to find it with his scouting SCV.
-Keeping reapers at home is also strange. Again, maybe he would say he was expecting a big attack, but he builds no bunkers or extra production buildings, simply teching to reactor hellions. Can he really expect to hold a speedling all-in or baneling bust (from a proxy hatch, no less) with two reapers and maybe two late hellions?
-I could buy MK saying he assumed the spine crawler on the minimap was an overlord. He had an SCV building a CC, which stayed in the lower left closest to the rocks for a long time and it's pretty close in vision. Later on, Byul does actually keep an overlord on that spot. It would be peculiar that it's winking at him the whole time since overlords aren't supposed to be visible in fog of war.
-He starts his third CC just as the creep is coming in. I think it's pretty ambiguous if he could have thought he missed something and there's no attack coming without seeing the creep until it was too late. You'd need the replay of his player cam to see it. The SPL observer shows his camera where you can see some creep, but he had already started his third CC. Still, he reacts VERY slowly to it.
So I think the circumstances are very strange. Even still, I would point out that MVP watched the replay with MK and they still believe him, so it maybe isn't THAT obvious from his player cam what he did or did not see. As with the quote of CJ's coach believing Savior, I would point out that the team is now putting its trust in MK. If it turns out he lied to them and let them put themselves out here like this, then they're a victim too. To call this putting their head in the sand like an ostrich is really being way too bitter and harsh, especially for a young guy. I'd be more charitable and say they're giving him every chance to come clean. If he's been spitting on those chances, then he deserves the consequences. But this is all part of the due process and I think far more preferable to the public humiliation, torture, and summary execution that lots of people here seem to want to see instead.
I guess MK would argue he thought it was a speedling and/or baneling bust incoming
Of course not, why would the pool be late if that was the case? Where are Byuls minerals?
On April 23 2015 01:17 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Speedling or baneling bust incoming. Better build a 3rd CC.
That doesn't even matter; The timing of the pool + the no natural can only mean a hatch somewhere else. Meaning golds or proxy. Or, of course, Byul fell asleep on his keyboard and is floating hundreds of minerals
On April 22 2015 22:45 SharkStarcraft wrote: So what does he do? He starts a 3rd CC and a reactor. That is the worst response imaginable against what he SAW. He needed units, bunkers. Instead he went for the most greedy thing there was to do. Even IF we pretend he DIDN'T see the proxy hatch, he knew it was somewhere on the map due to his scouting earlier. Therefore there is absolutely no reason to go for this build.
Can you explain why was this a terrible move? What if the Zerg put a hatch at another base to be greedy himself? Or is this map too small to risk to try to hide such a greedy hatch?
Anyway, a nice write up once again, but behold the people who don't read anything here (or anything they don't like to hear), or will try to explain you that you are a bad guy for pointing out how blatantly obvious it was, or just some random, empty moral talk in general, because those MKP posters on their wall costed money.
Do you often find insulting people with differing opinions and straw-manning them to be a good way of convincing them to see things your way?
If you want a short and blunt answer: yes, I do.
If you want a longer answer: While I wouldn't call this thread and some of its' posters a prime example, it's still a very good one if you want to showcase how easy it is to manipulate arguments and force everything into a black and white scenario.
Yeah, I've been calling out many people in this thread, you can even say I dropped some insulting remarks towards them, which is not nice, because we should love each other and makes this world a better place yada yada. A black mark for me from the ethics teacher, but let's look at the big picture, in which I hardly find myself the villain here, rather the one who couldn't be bothered to run the extra mile to sugarcoat my responses.
If we want to see the big picture, first we have to boil down the whole thread. This thread, or rather, the discussion which takes place in it, is about whether MKP participated in matchfixing or not. Basically 98% of the responses are about this. Majority of the people believes he did so, and it is pointless to differentiate between those who think it's very obvious, or those who would really really like to believe it's not true, but in their heart they know it probably is. A yes is a yes. Now, there is a minority who believes MKP did not do it. In this minority, a few people don't want to argue it, they just don't think he would do such a thing, and there have been some vocal people from this group who are just as - or even more - confident in their opinion than some from the other side.
So far so good, yeah? Seems like a usual debate, and someone mentioned 12 angry men, which is cool, we definitely need an opposing opinion, and even if it's just a minority, it can still be credible, and in the end, they can be right.
Here comes the problem. We are through 24 pages and this minority did not come up with a single argument which would come close to any of the points the majority based their opinion on. And here comes the beautiful manipulating part (don't think it's intentional though), because even though their arguments are ridiculous, especially compared to some of the FACTS we brought up, they still achieve sympathy, which is enough to make people like you write a comment like the one I just quoted.
This is how can you (=people who are reading this) can make the same shit, and derail any argument if someone doesn't recognize what you are trying to do: - If there are many points which one side uses to back up their opinion, pick the one you can make the best counter-argument against, and pretend the whole debate was about this one point, so if you make it weaker, you make the whole case weaker. Good example is the guy who stated in all of his response how someone cannon rushed without a forge. Now, no offense to this guy, later on we understood each other, and he made some good posts, but it is the easiest example. Now, on it's own, it's a great point, I mean if someone could make such a blunder, why do we expect MKP to be godlike and never bleed? The main problem with this, is that it ignores everything else. Circumstances matter, and this cannon rush example compared to MKP's continous mistakes is very much out of context. The other problem is, that knowing how it's such a weak argument*, you should absolutely not bash those who thinks MKP matchfixed based on this. Or to you use another word instead of bash: insult. Yes, implying that we are stupid if we still think he did that on purpose, just because someone somewhere made a big mistake as well is insulting, if you look a the big picture. *Once again, don't want to hurt that guy, that forge example is still one of the veeeeeeeeeeery few actual try to make a case for MKP being innocent. The others are pretty much just moral-warriors' weak attempts. - Talking about moral, the second way you can absolutely derail an argument, is going for the feels. A bunch of people talking about how they are disappointed in MKP? Better unleash the words "pitchfork"; "typical"; "disappointed"; etc. to try to make them look sheep. People who do (and did) this are not actually arguing, they barely if ever touch those points I was referring to previously, they straight out attack the people. It's pretty much flamebaiting, because you are insulted directly (you are labeled as mindless) and idnirectly (these people seemingly don't give a rat's ass about the previous pages and good arguments, they are just fighting this case for the sake of fighting it). After the Xth guy pops in here just to do this, you are pretty fucking tired of it. - Forcing to end the discussion. You know, the people who jump into the middle of this thread just to say "guys, MVP gave it's statement, let it go, it's over". It's not over, and why even bother telling people to stop discussing it? I for one am interested in why could he do it, how could teams/kespa/MKP handle it, what could this mean in the future of korean sc2, etc. Even if there was no matchfixing, it's still an interesting topic. Of course, you might seem like a jerk if you tell these people to go away, because oh, they just wanted this pointless fight to stop! Yeah, that's why some of them went as far as trying to force an end to the discussion, while implying that MKP is innocent for sure. - And finally, you just gotta love the "100% guys". They go to extreme lengths just to question every single word you make. It's very dumb, but these are the only people you technically can't win an argument against. Even if MKP announced he lost intentionally, these guys would just say "yeah, but what if kespa forced him to say this, so they can make a scapegoat out of him?". What do you even say to this? There is a possibility, sure. Maybe the people who thinks MKP lost intentionally are paid by the Russians. Can we prove we are not? Maybe MKP hired a guy who looks just like him, and the guy did not lose intentionally, he was just bad at Starcraft. Can I prove it was ot the case? Not without medical tests, no. The list could go on, and these guys are persistent, because they know if they add "but is it a 100% proof?" to whatever they say, they can just get away with it. It's very similiar to my previous point, their intention is the same: to force an end to the discussion.
All of these could be summed up by one word: ignorance. Have you ever argued with ignorant people? Do you know much fun it is? If you don't, search for a pencil, put it down in front of you, and ask him what's 1+1. It will never say 2. Now, how long do you have the patience to repeatedly keep asking your pencil, while it just lies there with its' imaginary chin up in the air? Thought so.
The question here is not as simple as 1+1, sure, but no one could make a single post which could be stickied somewhere, to showcase it for those who are interested in what the side who believes MKP is innocent have to offer. Nothing. We have countless posts which explains why it is very, very, very, very likely MKP participated in a matchfixing, they've been quoted for quite a lot, but the other side's so called arguments can be summed up by this: "99,9% is not 100%, MKP is innocent, if you think otherwise you are a sheep, bye." And you think I'm strawmanning? Really? Do you want me to quote some of these posts withot changing a single comma in them? I'm not making these up, people literally said these stupid things I just mentioned. Hell, the last guy I called out, marched in here, pretty much called us idiots, then admitted he actually had no idea what was going in, but ran away from here with his closing thoughts being (paraphrasing here): "I was ignorant, but you guys were mean, so I'm right. Don't respond to me, I'm not coming back, because I'm right." So much maturity!
The funniest thing is that somehow we are presented to be MKP haters, who want him to go to jail or something, while in reality, the other side is the more radical one. But we all know that defending someone always looks better, than attacking him/her.
On April 22 2015 22:45 SharkStarcraft wrote: So what does he do? He starts a 3rd CC and a reactor. That is the worst response imaginable against what he SAW. He needed units, bunkers. Instead he went for the most greedy thing there was to do. Even IF we pretend he DIDN'T see the proxy hatch, he knew it was somewhere on the map due to his scouting earlier. Therefore there is absolutely no reason to go for this build.
Can you explain why was this a terrible move? What if the Zerg put a hatch at another base to be greedy himself? Or is this map too small to risk to try to hide such a greedy hatch?
Anyway, a nice write up once again, but behold the people who don't read anything here (or anything they don't like to hear), or will try to explain you that you are a bad guy for pointing out how blatantly obvious it was, or just some random, empty moral talk in general, because those MKP posters on their wall costed money.
Do you not play the game, or do you play protoss at a really low level? It's a terrible decision whether a terran would assume a proxy hatch next to the terran's base or a hatch at another base location, the response would be the same; to make units.
If the Terran would assume it was some bizarre mindgame where the Zerg proxy hatch to mine from a base normally, only to take your 3rd somewhere else, it makes no sense to not scout for the hatch and it's not actually possible to defend both your 2nd and 3rd to any normal Terran response and the Zerg player would lose automatically anyways. There's no reason to start a 3rd CC, just as there is no reason to not to bother to scout with the scouting scv or even to scout your own main. Was he microing units? No. Was he busy macroing? No, it's the first 5 mins of the game and he's a pro not a bronze player. He literally had a (real time) minute free to stare at his base and minimap and didn't notice the creep.
No, I don't play SC. I was asking it, to be the devil's advocate, because the other camp is so damn lackluster, that I actually have to try to attack our own statements with - from a noobs perspective - reasonable questions. In a way, it wasn't a serious question, because I knew (many people have explained MKP's amateurish mistakes in this thread) it was most likely a ridiculous mistake, I was just curious if there was a purely theoretical answer, which could make this one particular mistake a little less terrible.
On April 22 2015 22:45 SharkStarcraft wrote: So what does he do? He starts a 3rd CC and a reactor. That is the worst response imaginable against what he SAW. He needed units, bunkers. Instead he went for the most greedy thing there was to do. Even IF we pretend he DIDN'T see the proxy hatch, he knew it was somewhere on the map due to his scouting earlier. Therefore there is absolutely no reason to go for this build.
Can you explain why was this a terrible move? What if the Zerg put a hatch at another base to be greedy himself? Or is this map too small to risk to try to hide such a greedy hatch?
Anyway, a nice write up once again, but behold the people who don't read anything here (or anything they don't like to hear), or will try to explain you that you are a bad guy for pointing out how blatantly obvious it was, or just some random, empty moral talk in general, because those MKP posters on their wall costed money.
It was a terrible move because like i said, there had to be a hatch somewhere on the map. The only reason to proxy a hatchery to mine from it is to take the gold, since the additional income sometimes is worth the risk of having a base that's harder to defend. On a map like this, taking a base far away from your main will cost you the game in the midgame because the terran can just attack from two angles and you cant really defend both bases, at least far less comfortably than if you just had them together. Since he scouted the gold bases it had to be an offensively placed proxy hatch, since hatches to mine from don't benefit you if they're far away unless they are in fact gold bases. Therefore going 3rd CC into reactor was the most terrible thing he could have done since the hatch had to be placed offensively.
Yeah, and meanwhile I realized that the main point in this is that he had to scout. I mean, let's say if the Z did not go for an offensive, but for a hidden expand hatchery, and if the T builds a 3rd CC he comes out ahead, there was still 0 reason why he shouldn't send at least one of his reaper to check his natural.
50/50 only makes sense in a scenario where you either lose big, if the other possibility is that you win big. I doubt the third CC would've been a guaranteed win for MKP if Byul only went for a hidden, non-golden base, but it was a guaranteed loss if it was where it was in the game.
On April 22 2015 22:45 SharkStarcraft wrote: I think everyone who claims mkp didn't throw on purpose is immensely delusional. I don't know if this has been done before but i am going to explain why this game is unbelievably obviously fixed to people who are not that familiar with (pro level) sc2.
First of all, we need to think logically. MKP is not stupid. He saw a late gas and pool with no natural with his scouting SCV, thus he concluded that the hatchery must be somewhere else, which is why he checked the gold bases. He KNEW there was a hatchery somewhere on the map. Upon not finding anything at the gold bases he concluded (he had to, there were no other options) that the hatch must be somewhere proxied on the map.
What would anyone right in their mind do? Check their main first. He didn't . He opened reaper, so he could scout very easily and efficiently. I can understand some arguments for leaving the first one at home to defend, but as soon as the second reaper popped there was no reason for him to not look around for the hatch with at least one of them, since his main was completely walled in. Fact is, his reapers were sitting at home the entire time because he didn't want to find the hatch., since it is very simple to win the game once you scout something like this which he didn't want, obviously.
Sadly, for him, he scouted the proxy nonetheless, in form of a spine crawler at around 4:30 (video time). Let me get this straight. The spine was visible for over 1 minute and 20 seconds of real time. Pro players look at their minimap every two or three seconds. Marineking was on one base, he didn't even have any units out on the map, so it's impossible that he was too busy to see it. He definitely saw it, maybe not immediately, but no player above gold league doesn't notice something like this in one and a half minutes. Marineking played this game for over five years, i don't have to explain that he saw it by now.
So what does he do? He starts a 3rd CC and a reactor. That is the worst response imaginable against what he SAW. He needed units, bunkers. Instead he went for the most greedy thing there was to do. Even IF we pretend he DIDN'T see the proxy hatch, he knew it was somewhere on the map due to his scouting earlier. Therefore there is absolutely no reason to go for this build.
To top that off, at around 5:30 (video time) there is creep visible inside his main base right besides the Command Center. It's just there, on his main screen, not to mention there is a huge purple blurp on the minimap. So even IF we pretend, again, he DIDN'T look the the minimap for more than 2 minutes, he definitely saw the creep there. He did not respond whatsoever. After ByuL breaks down the rocks the game is over, MKP 'tries' to defend with good micro but at that point the game was 100% over so he could finally drop his act and start playing.
So if you say 'maybe he had a bad day', please can you explain all these points i mentioned above then? That's like you saying a computer expert didn't find the button to turn his PC on because he had a bad day. No matter how bad of a day he had, the things that happened were unexplicable.
Sorry for the wall of text, and sorry if this has been explained in great detail already, but maybe i could provide some insight to those of you who didn't really get why people found this game so absurdly strange.
I'll make a couple points here:
-The scouting is definitely suspicious. The SCV scouts no natural, scouts the late pool (with gas first), scouts the gold bases, then goes back home to mine. I guess MK would argue he thought it was a speedling and/or baneling bust incoming, but it doesn't really explain why he wouldn't keep something outside the base to keep scouting or if he knew it was a proxy hatch, why he wouldn't keep trying to find it with his scouting SCV.
-Keeping reapers at home is also strange. Again, maybe he would say he was expecting a big attack, but he builds no bunkers or extra production buildings, simply teching to reactor hellions. Can he really expect to hold a speedling all-in or baneling bust (from a proxy hatch, no less) with two reapers and maybe two late hellions?
-I could buy MK saying he assumed the spine crawler on the minimap was an overlord. He had an SCV building a CC, which stayed in the lower left closest to the rocks for a long time and it's pretty close in vision. Later on, Byul does actually keep an overlord on that spot. It would be peculiar that it's winking at him the whole time since overlords aren't supposed to be visible in fog of war.
-He starts his third CC just as the creep is coming in. I think it's pretty ambiguous if he could have thought he missed something and there's no attack coming without seeing the creep until it was too late. You'd need the replay of his player cam to see it. The SPL observer shows his camera where you can see some creep, but he had already started his third CC. Still, he reacts VERY slowly to it.
So I think the circumstances are very strange. Even still, I would point out that MVP watched the replay with MK and they still believe him, so it maybe isn't THAT obvious from his player cam what he did or did not see. As with the quote of CJ's coach believing Savior, I would point out that the team is now putting its trust in MK. If it turns out he lied to them and let them put themselves out here like this, then they're a victim too. To call this putting their head in the sand like an ostrich is really being way too bitter and harsh, especially for a young guy. I'd be more charitable and say they're giving him every chance to come clean. If he's been spitting on those chances, then he deserves the consequences. But this is all part of the due process and I think far more preferable to the public humiliation, torture, and summary execution that lots of people here seem to want to see instead.
See, this is a good post, which differs to my opinion, but I have absolutely no urge to call this guy out, because he obviously read other's posts here, he is not being ignorant, and he stays on topic, not trying to make childish arguments, or making it into some emotional war. Now, compare his post to the people's I have called out so far. You know, like the guys who barfs in one sentence which screams from "I don't even care what you guys wrote so far, imma just butt in here for the lulz".
On April 22 2015 22:45 SharkStarcraft wrote: I think everyone who claims mkp didn't throw on purpose is immensely delusional. I don't know if this has been done before but i am going to explain why this game is unbelievably obviously fixed to people who are not that familiar with (pro level) sc2.
First of all, we need to think logically. MKP is not stupid. He saw a late gas and pool with no natural with his scouting SCV, thus he concluded that the hatchery must be somewhere else, which is why he checked the gold bases. He KNEW there was a hatchery somewhere on the map. Upon not finding anything at the gold bases he concluded (he had to, there were no other options) that the hatch must be somewhere proxied on the map.
What would anyone right in their mind do? Check their main first. He didn't . He opened reaper, so he could scout very easily and efficiently. I can understand some arguments for leaving the first one at home to defend, but as soon as the second reaper popped there was no reason for him to not look around for the hatch with at least one of them, since his main was completely walled in. Fact is, his reapers were sitting at home the entire time because he didn't want to find the hatch., since it is very simple to win the game once you scout something like this which he didn't want, obviously.
Sadly, for him, he scouted the proxy nonetheless, in form of a spine crawler at around 4:30 (video time). Let me get this straight. The spine was visible for over 1 minute and 20 seconds of real time. Pro players look at their minimap every two or three seconds. Marineking was on one base, he didn't even have any units out on the map, so it's impossible that he was too busy to see it. He definitely saw it, maybe not immediately, but no player above gold league doesn't notice something like this in one and a half minutes. Marineking played this game for over five years, i don't have to explain that he saw it by now.
So what does he do? He starts a 3rd CC and a reactor. That is the worst response imaginable against what he SAW. He needed units, bunkers. Instead he went for the most greedy thing there was to do. Even IF we pretend he DIDN'T see the proxy hatch, he knew it was somewhere on the map due to his scouting earlier. Therefore there is absolutely no reason to go for this build.
To top that off, at around 5:30 (video time) there is creep visible inside his main base right besides the Command Center. It's just there, on his main screen, not to mention there is a huge purple blurp on the minimap. So even IF we pretend, again, he DIDN'T look the the minimap for more than 2 minutes, he definitely saw the creep there. He did not respond whatsoever. After ByuL breaks down the rocks the game is over, MKP 'tries' to defend with good micro but at that point the game was 100% over so he could finally drop his act and start playing.
So if you say 'maybe he had a bad day', please can you explain all these points i mentioned above then? That's like you saying a computer expert didn't find the button to turn his PC on because he had a bad day. No matter how bad of a day he had, the things that happened were unexplicable.
Sorry for the wall of text, and sorry if this has been explained in great detail already, but maybe i could provide some insight to those of you who didn't really get why people found this game so absurdly strange.
I'll make a couple points here:
-The scouting is definitely suspicious. The SCV scouts no natural, scouts the late pool (with gas first), scouts the gold bases, then goes back home to mine. I guess MK would argue he thought it was a speedling and/or baneling bust incoming, but it doesn't really explain why he wouldn't keep something outside the base to keep scouting or if he knew it was a proxy hatch, why he wouldn't keep trying to find it with his scouting SCV.
-Keeping reapers at home is also strange. Again, maybe he would say he was expecting a big attack, but he builds no bunkers or extra production buildings, simply teching to reactor hellions. Can he really expect to hold a speedling all-in or baneling bust (from a proxy hatch, no less) with two reapers and maybe two late hellions?
-I could buy MK saying he assumed the spine crawler on the minimap was an overlord. He had an SCV building a CC, which stayed in the lower left closest to the rocks for a long time and it's pretty close in vision. Later on, Byul does actually keep an overlord on that spot. It would be peculiar that it's winking at him the whole time since overlords aren't supposed to be visible in fog of war.
-He starts his third CC just as the creep is coming in. I think it's pretty ambiguous if he could have thought he missed something and there's no attack coming without seeing the creep until it was too late. You'd need the replay of his player cam to see it. The SPL observer shows his camera where you can see some creep, but he had already started his third CC. Still, he reacts VERY slowly to it.
So I think the circumstances are very strange. Even still, I would point out that MVP watched the replay with MK and they still believe him, so it maybe isn't THAT obvious from his player cam what he did or did not see. As with the quote of CJ's coach believing Savior, I would point out that the team is now putting its trust in MK. If it turns out he lied to them and let them put themselves out here like this, then they're a victim too. To call this putting their head in the sand like an ostrich is really being way too bitter and harsh, especially for a young guy. I'd be more charitable and say they're giving him every chance to come clean. If he's been spitting on those chances, then he deserves the consequences. But this is all part of the due process and I think far more preferable to the public humiliation, torture, and summary execution that lots of people here seem to want to see instead.
MVP guards MK, they have to know he matchfixed but they just don't make it public. Or they're extremely stupid. Or they don't want to know. You see, they ask him 'well dude did you matchfix?' -'nah i didn't' -'really? ' -'no' MK INNOCENT THANKS CASE CLOSED there are ways of finding out if he fixed if they wanted to. they could check his skype/fb messages, check his bank account for suspicious amounts of money coming out of nowhere etc. The fact is that they don't, which implies one of the options i mentioned above.
Oh and he didn't have permanent vision of the spine, which as you said 'could have been an overlord', thus the yellow dot would disappear, since you can't permanently see overlords on the map without vision, while the dot from the spine would still be there even if he lost vision, since it's a building. So even that theory doesn't work.
EPT
