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On September 18 2014 23:45 Liliputin wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2014 23:43 WTCO wrote:
Heh, Rain and Parting leave SKT because they want to play in more foreign tournaments and then SKT sends soO and Classic to the first foreign tournament after they are gone. So trolly. In order to secure blizzcon spots, so yeah I dont know if that even counts... ^^ Quite worried about Snute getting to blizzcon when I see all these players who need those WCS points.. 
Before Dreamhack Stockholm announced the list, the WCS predictor put Snute at ~70% chance to make it to Blizzcon. After Die4ever updated his thread, Snute's chances are now at ~50%. I want Snute to make it, but he really needs to rock DH:Stockholm.
If soO gets through Stat, AND makes it deep into DH will definitely kick Snute out of Blizzcon.
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This should be interesting. I expect a lot of upsets :x
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On September 19 2014 03:54 Luolis wrote:
All we need is elfi and this tour would be perfect :D
You forgot about sOs , Bomber, DRG, Scarlet and a few others that i dont remeber...
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The giant list just looking for WCS points.
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On September 19 2014 04:32 FrostedMiniWheats wrote:
This should be interesting. I expect a lot of upsets :x
this is true. who are soO and Classic gonna randomly lose to... Welmu? Lilbow, maybe? QueenE?
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On September 19 2014 04:31 Jett.Jack.Alvir wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2014 23:45 Liliputin wrote:On September 18 2014 23:43 WTCO wrote:
Heh, Rain and Parting leave SKT because they want to play in more foreign tournaments and then SKT sends soO and Classic to the first foreign tournament after they are gone. So trolly. In order to secure blizzcon spots, so yeah I dont know if that even counts... ^^ Quite worried about Snute getting to blizzcon when I see all these players who need those WCS points.. Before Dreamhack Stockholm announced the list, the WCS predictor put Snute at ~70% chance to make it to Blizzcon. After Die4ever updated his thread, Snute's chances are now at ~50%. I want Snute to make it, but he really needs to rock DH:Stockholm. If soO gets through Stat, AND makes it deep into DH will definitely kick Snute out of Blizzcon.
Snute needs to be passed by 3 people to lose out on Blizzcon.
In order to pass Snute:
sOs needs to get out of whatever group he'll be placed in at Red BUll.
MMA needs to make Top 8 in WCS or Top 8 at Dreamhack.
soO needs to either make the finals of GSL again, or beat Stats and make the bracket at Dreamhack, or make Top 4 at Dreamhack.
Pigbaby needs to make the finals of WCS America.
Anyone below Pigbaby needs to win their WCS region outright.
And that assumes that Snute gets NO points from Dreamhack. If Snute makes the bracket, he would need to be passed by 4 people to lose out on Blizzcon, and then in order to pass him:
Jaedong needs to get as many points from Dreamhack as Snute or more.
sOs still needs to get out of his Red Bull group.
MMA needs to make Top 4 of WCS or make both Top 8 at WCS and make the bracket at Dreamhack.
soO needs to either make the finals of GSL again, or beat Stats and make the bracket at Dreamhack, or make the finals of Dreamhack.
Anyone below soO needs to win their WCS region outright.
That's a lot of conditions to make Snute miss Blizzcon, and the majority of them would have to be met to make it happen.
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I'm going to make it my life mission to have my picture taken with soO.
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On September 19 2014 04:54 Circumstance wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2014 04:31 Jett.Jack.Alvir wrote:On September 18 2014 23:45 Liliputin wrote:On September 18 2014 23:43 WTCO wrote:
Heh, Rain and Parting leave SKT because they want to play in more foreign tournaments and then SKT sends soO and Classic to the first foreign tournament after they are gone. So trolly. In order to secure blizzcon spots, so yeah I dont know if that even counts... ^^ Quite worried about Snute getting to blizzcon when I see all these players who need those WCS points.. Before Dreamhack Stockholm announced the list, the WCS predictor put Snute at ~70% chance to make it to Blizzcon. After Die4ever updated his thread, Snute's chances are now at ~50%. I want Snute to make it, but he really needs to rock DH:Stockholm. If soO gets through Stat, AND makes it deep into DH will definitely kick Snute out of Blizzcon. Snute needs to be passed by 3 people to lose out on Blizzcon. In order to pass Snute: sOs needs to get out of whatever group he'll be placed in at Red BUll. MMA needs to make Top 8 in WCS or Top 8 at Dreamhack. soO needs to either make the finals of GSL again, or beat Stats and make the bracket at Dreamhack, or make Top 4 at Dreamhack. Pigbaby needs to make the finals of WCS America. Anyone below Pigbaby needs to win their WCS region outright. And that assumes that Snute gets NO points from Dreamhack. If Snute makes the bracket, he would need to be passed by 4 people to lose out on Blizzcon, and then in order to pass him: Jaedong needs to get as many points from Dreamhack as Snute or more. sOs still needs to get out of his Red Bull group. MMA needs to make Top 4 of WCS or make both Top 8 at WCS and make the bracket at Dreamhack. soO needs to either make the finals of GSL again, or beat Stats and make the bracket at Dreamhack, or make the finals of Dreamhack. Anyone below soO needs to win their WCS region outright. That's a lot of conditions to make Snute miss Blizzcon, and the majority of them would have to be met to make it happen.
It's not super unlikely for Snute to not make it if he gets 0 points from Stockholm. WCS Predictor says that'd put him down at ~ 29.36 % by itself.
~ 27.81 % of the time
Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 29.36 %
Here are some of the worst events for Snute listed on WCS Predictor.
~ 0.37 % of the time
Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and
INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and
Pigbaby gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier and
sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 2.95 %
~ 1.98 % of the time
Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and
INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and
soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 and
MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 4.13 %
~ 0.6 % of the time
Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and
INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and
soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and
sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 5.66 %
~ 0.76 % of the time
Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and
INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and
Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and
sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 5.94 %
~ 3.05 % of the time
Snute gets 64th in DreamHack Stockholm and
Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and
MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 6.8 %
~ 2.53 % of the time
Snute gets 64th in DreamHack Stockholm and
Pigbaby gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 6.82 %
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On September 19 2014 04:31 Jornada wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2014 02:50 SetGuitarsToKill wrote:
Dang, no Scarlett really hurts her (already pretty low) WCS chances. Still, sick line up otherwise Scarlett is relying on WCS and Redbull... i dont blame her for not going.. Lots of Travel and it would hinder her chances for playing well in WCS and Redbull. Scarlett can still make it to Blizzcon, she just has to win or come in second place at least.
Still would have liked to see her competing in it anyway, not just for WCS points.
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Die4Ever will be so bored after Blizzcon...
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Die4Ever, I think that you have a small error in your formula. If sOs gets 8th (or 6th) in Red Bull Washington, he gets zero points, and in that case, Snute remains 75 points ahead of him.
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On September 19 2014 05:09 Silvana wrote:
Die4Ever will be so bored after Blizzcon...
hahaha I don't think so actually 
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On September 19 2014 05:10 Circumstance wrote:
Die4Ever, I think that you have a small error in your formula. If sOs gets 8th (or 6th) in Red Bull Washington, he gets zero points, and in that case, Snute remains 75 points ahead of him.
just double checked, it seems to be fine, it was just that one part of the event wasn't enough to give Snute better chances, you can see on sOs's page
~ 46.96 % of the time
sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 10.57 %
And also sOs' minimum WCS Points is 2850 as listed on liquipedia, so I think it's fine
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Zerg line up : soo, life, true, solar, jaedong, golden, hyun, leenock, sascri, snute
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On September 19 2014 05:12 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2014 05:10 Circumstance wrote:
Die4Ever, I think that you have a small error in your formula. If sOs gets 8th (or 6th) in Red Bull Washington, he gets zero points, and in that case, Snute remains 75 points ahead of him. just double checked, it seems to be fine, it was just that one part of the event wasn't enough to give Snute better chances, you can see on sOs's page ~ 46.96 % of the time sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 10.57 % And also sOs' minimum WCS Points is 2850 as listed on liquipedia, so I think it's fine
Alright, maybe I'm just getting confused by reading so many situations and looking all of the various permutations of X, Y, or Z. I just look at the scenarios you're listing, and they seemed to be putting Snute as below the Top 16 while not being passed by enough people.
I just checked the site again, and sOs getting 8th DOES raise Snute's chances to 65.89%. My bad.
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On September 19 2014 05:16 Circumstance wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2014 05:12 Die4Ever wrote:On September 19 2014 05:10 Circumstance wrote:
Die4Ever, I think that you have a small error in your formula. If sOs gets 8th (or 6th) in Red Bull Washington, he gets zero points, and in that case, Snute remains 75 points ahead of him. just double checked, it seems to be fine, it was just that one part of the event wasn't enough to give Snute better chances, you can see on sOs's page ~ 46.96 % of the time sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 10.57 % And also sOs' minimum WCS Points is 2850 as listed on liquipedia, so I think it's fine Alright, maybe I'm just getting confused by reading so many situations and looking all of the various permutations of X, Y, or Z. I just look at the scenarios you're listing, and they seemed to be putting Snute as below the Top 16 while not being passed by enough people. I just checked the site again, and sOs getting 8th DOES raise Snute's chances to 65.89%. My bad.
Yea when it does event grouping it doesn't necessarily group events together that all swing their chances in the same direction, I thought about having it do that but decided against it. Instead it'll group events together in all different ways, and then score them as a whole and see which groups score the highest overall. That way you can still see different scenarios instead of only seeing the miracle scenarios and the catastrophes.
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It looks good with the lineup, i only got one question, why on earth is MC still teamless? It really boggles my mind.
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On September 19 2014 05:25 MidnightZL wrote:
It looks good with the lineup, i only got one question, why on earth is MC still teamless? It really boggles my mind.
He's teamless because he wants to be
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On September 19 2014 05:25 MidnightZL wrote:
It looks good with the lineup, i only got one question, why on earth is MC still teamless? It really boggles my mind.
Because no team can do more for MC than he would do for that team, so screw them, because the BossToss can ride solo.
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EPT
