Tonight we have a very special Ro32 group. Jaedong and Bomber, two of the most popular and successful players in the world, will be going head to head. They were the two players who graced the grands finals of WCS Season 2 in 2013, and it's a rare treat to see them face off in the lower rounds of a tournament. Yet, the excitement is tinged with just a slight hint of dread. Jaedong and Bomber are heavily favored to advance to the Ro16 together, but there's still the tiniest possibility that one of them might fail to make it...
2014 has not started as well as EG.Jaedong would have liked. He finally broke his SC2 championship duck at ASUS ROG Northcon at the end of 2013, but it in hindsight it was not the breakthrough moment everyone thought it would be. Despite placing high at ASUS ROG Winter '14 and IEM Cologne, Jaedong did not look like the dominating player who reached six finals in 2013. Instead, he looked like a player who had taken some well earned time off during the off-season and was still working his way back into form.
In 2013 Jaedong aggressive, unafraid to take risks, and someone who seized the initiative in a game as soon as he was given a chance. The Jaedong we've seen in 2014 has been more tentative and measured. While that might have something to do with his confidence, it may also just reflect the recent trends in Zerg play.
All that said, Jaedong is still a powerhouse. He has defeated players like HerO, Solar, Patience, and StarDust in recent competition, and he has looked improved with each passing tournament. Though the match against Bomber is sure to be difficult (I'd say it's a completely even 50-50), at worst Jaedong should be able to advance by defeating the Protosses in the group.
Like Jaedong, Bomber's 2014 hasn't been that great so far. It's one thing to be eliminated from the Warer.com Invitational by MC and TaeJa. It's another thing to get eliminated from IEM Sao Paulo by TLO. With all due respect to TLO, that's just not a result we expect from our WCS Season 2 Champion from 2013.
The last time Bomber faced Jaedong was in the IEM Cologne qualifiers where Jaedong won 2-1. It was an evenly matched series then, which could easily have gone either way. Jaedong still has to watch out for Bomber and his two major strengths in TvZ: great macro and a fondness for retro-WoL strategies no one else uses. It was reads on Bomber's style that let TLO score the upsetat IEM, so Jaedong would be wise to study Bomber closely if he wants make this match as easier for himself. Conversely, Bomber might benefit from shaking things up and doing something unexpected.
Has there been any group in Korea, America, or Europe where the Protoss players looked so small in comparison to their opponents? ESC.Arthur and yoe.Has could have been favorites to advance to the Ro16 in other groups, but instead they have to face two of the best players in the entire tournament.
After what seemed like months of wandering through the darkness alone, Arthur has finally found a team in ESC. Arthur did well to make it to Premier League and avoid permanent banishment to WCS Korea, but his Challenger victory over iG practice partner iAsonu tells us little about his skill. Arthur is quite active and successful in smaller, online tournaments, but getting results in a Premier tournament is something he has failed to do so far. Even before worrying about facing one of Jaedong or Bomber, he'll have to face a tough preliminary test in Taiwanese Protoss Has.
Has is one the most interesting young prospects coming up in the Taiwanese scene, and he's already racked up a string of impressive victories. Trickster, Sage, Panic, MMA and TRUE are among his victims. Though he's still largely unknown in the West, his 3-1 victory over Sage in Challenger League showed that he's definitely Premier League quality. Advancing from this group is going to be a tall order nonetheless as Jaedong and Bomber are no strangers to stomping down rising stars. Has might be able to defeat Arthur, but he'll need a minor miracle to get past Bomber or Jaedong.
Predictions
Jaedong > Bomber Arthur < Has Jaedong > Has Bomber > Arthur Has < Bomber
I can't see JD beating bomber, so I'm guessing Bomber first, JD second. Should be an awesome first match though. So sad I'll be writing an exam during it
- Bomber is at ~ 32.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.31 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 44.21 %. ~ 41.69 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 16.91 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 59.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.87 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 72.05 %. ~ 37.13 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 37.32 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 15.26 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.54 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 22.23 %. ~ 46.46 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Has is at ~ 5.50 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.28 % of the time Has wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.68 %. ~ 74.72 % of the time Has loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.73 %.
Group of Death by far fitting it is Group D lol. But I predict JD and Bomber will advance. I don't think we should be surpised if Arthur sneaks out too.
This is the first group that I've found myself cheering for the two favorites to win, but holy hell will I ever be furious if Has and Arthur pull any upsets.
On the other hand, if Has goes on a huge hot streak and then fizzles out, he'll make for the perfect TL-writer-quality nickname: Has-been.
If JD won vs bomber, i would not be surprised if he lost the winner's match vs a protoss. He is just way too hesitant in his ZvP play. Then it means bomber will meet jaedong in final match and one of them is eliminated. T_T
Blame the Internet. Or the fact that all players can be in any region and participate in any WCS tournament. Reducing sign up for WCS to force players to be living in the region they play solves a lot of these types of connection issues.
On February 27 2014 09:02 Anthro wrote: Blame the Internet. Or the fact that all players can be in any region and participate in any WCS tournament. Reducing sign up for WCS to force players to be living in the region they play solves a lot of these types of connection issues.
It's a battlenet issue that's happened at IEM as well (EU, offline).
EPT
EG.Jaedong would have liked. He finally broke his SC2 championship duck at ASUS ROG Northcon at the end of 2013, but it in hindsight it was not the breakthrough moment everyone thought it would be. Despite placing high at ASUS ROG Winter '14 and IEM Cologne, Jaedong did not look like the dominating player who reached six finals in 2013. Instead, he looked like a player who had taken some well earned time off during the off-season and was still working his way back into form.
Bomber's 2014 hasn't been that great so far. It's one thing to be eliminated from the Warer.com Invitational by MC and TaeJa. It's another thing to get eliminated from IEM Sao Paulo by TLO. With all due respect to TLO, that's just not a result we expect from our WCS Season 2 Champion from 2013.
ESC.Arthur and 
