EPTDreamHack Winter:
Group Stage Preview
- Group Stage
- Round robin, matches are Best-of-3.
- Five players per group, total of 4 groups.
- Top 4 in each group advances to the playoffs.
- Round robin, matches are Best-of-3.
- Playoffs
- 16 player double-elimination bracket.
- Top 2 of each group starts in the Winner Bracket.
- 3rd and 4th places start in the Loser Bracket.
- Best-of-3 until finals.
- Loser's Finals is Best-of-5 and Grand Finals is best-of-7.
- 16 player double-elimination bracket.
Group A: HyuN, NaNiwa, LucifroN, TLO, Patience
by WaxangelThe Top Two:
Quantic.HyuN, 
Alliance.NaNiwaWell, you gotta go with the two Korean players first, right
? HyuN doesn't peak as high at some other Koreans, but his great mechanics and strong macro style makes sure he's always finishing consistently high in tournaments. A top two finish in the group stage seems pretty much in line with his past performances.As for NaNiwa... if we look at how he's played since IEM New York, he should easily advance through this group in the top two. The problem is that while NaNiwa is famous for raising his game when he's the underdog, he doesn't always perform when he's the favorite. You could rely on a top Korean to take care of business against TLO and Lucifron, but can we expect the same from NaNiwa in his current form? We will see.
The Middle:
K3.LucifroN, Azubu.PatienceAs a scarred survivor of the Lucifron bandwagon, I'm afraid to place any great hopes on him. He seemed to be the foreigner who grasped the aggressive, multi-task heavy style of Korean Terrans the best, but it never really materialized in a great tournament run. I doubt a stacked tournament like DHW is where he's going to finally go on his deep run, but I hope he can prove me wrong.
The barely known Patience made it through the qualifiers by beating a... varied range of opponents. On one hand there were players like FireCake and knowme, and on the other he did manage to beat Hydra and CoCa as well. Looking at his recent results, I have to say he's probably not the player most fans expected to take a coveted DHW spot, but hey, he won it fair and square.
Probably Out:
Liquid`TLOLucifron may not be doing so hot right now, but TLO is doing even worse. After a great period of consistent results toward the beginning of HotS, the Liquid Zerg has fallen back into mediocrity. As with Lucifron we hope for a bounceback, but a difficult tournament like DHW is probably not the most likely venue.
Group B: MMA, Polt, Life, StarDust, JYP
by WaxangelThe Top Two:
ST_Life, CMStorm_PoltI have to admit that Polt hasn't been all that great outside of his personal fief of WCS America. When he went to the combined WCS events where he had to face the best Koreans from all of the regions combined, he fell disappointingly short. Why then, did I pick him to do well at DreamHack Winter, which is basically a New Game+ version of all those WCS events?
Mostly because it seems that those bad performances were more a sign of bad luck than any weak pattern in Polt's play. Other WCS AM players like TaeJa and Jaedong have done just fine at international events, and Polt is just too good not to have his due as well. Furthermore, with a few interrupted weeks between Blizzcon and DHW, Polt will have been able to sit down and put in solid hours of practice he lacked for WCS Season 3 and BlizzCon.
The other player I'm picking to finish top two and earn an advantageous seed is Life, who finally seems to be hitting his stride in HotS. You'll never get a straight answer from anyone about why Life's form is so erratic, whether it's LoL, laziness, or just general lack of interest. Let's just say that Life is not always 100% checked in.
While he's not completely back to that old "by far the best in the world" form, he's at least playing like a championship player again. He made winning IEM New York look easy, and he's been tearing it up in the online Dailymotion Cup as well. Some will point to his failings in the GSTL as a sign of weakness, but honestly Life has rarely brought his best play to the GSTL arena. The new stars of 2013 would be wise not to overlook Life, the prodigy of 2012.
In the middle:
Acer.MMA, mYi.StarDust It's pretty clear that Life, MMA, and Polt are the top three players in this group, but the top two cut-off line is where arguments will start to flare up. By a hair, I had to put MMA below that line. He may have won WCS Europe with a win over MC in the finals, but Europe is the weakest WCS region. Also, if you look at how MC has been playing lately, beating him isn't anywhere near the accomplishment was in the past. That said, MMA does happen to be playing some of the best StarCraft he has in nearly two years, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him crack the top two in his group.
The there's StarDust, who seems to pleased enough with his nickname "cheesedust." The ex-KeSPA Protoss has fallen off ever since he won DreamHack Summer on the back of some very unorthodox PvZ play, but you always have to give some baseline respect to the guy who has no qualms about cheesing you the second he sees a weakness.
Probably eliminated:
EG.JYP The 4th place cutoff was a contest between StarDust and JYP, but I gave StarDust the nod because he's shown he can win a major tournament. In JYP's case he's still in that unfulfilled potential zone, lacking that major tournament result he can be proud of.
Group C: TaeJa, sOs, SjoW, ForGG, INnoVation
by ChristelleWelcome to the group of death. The combined tournament results in this group are stellar, with three of the players having performed well enough in 2013 to earn spots at the WCS Global Finals at BlizzCon. In terms of intimidation factor, they're enough to make even the most hardened pro shake in their boots.
INnoVation lack of championships in the most recent months doesn't stop him from being a top contender for best player of 2013, having shown a consistently high level of play throughout the year. sOs might take offense to that though, whose title as World Championship Series 2013 winner certainly affords him a lot of respect. Of course, TaeJa can never be left out of the mix, having won four championships on the year. Also found in the group is long-time veteran ForGG, whose impeccable macro always makes him a danger.
But the player that exemplifies the group of "death" is the sole foreigner SjoW, who will most likely be headed toward just that. Despite his nigh miraculous top four placement at DreamHack Summer, few are giving him much of a chance to repeat the feat.
Advancing with Flying Colors:
Woongjin_sOs, Liquid`TaeJaDespite being knocked out of the WCS Finals 2013 in the first round, TaeJa is still clearly in a different league that SjoW and ForGG at the moment (as in, actually winning tournaments). As far as comparing his current strength towards that of INnoVation goes, he could be described as the first of two equals.
sOs is the reigning WCS 2013 champion, which we think merits at least a prediction to get out of the group stage.
Barely Behind:
Acer.INnoVation, Mill.ForGGTaeJa gets the nod above INnoVation because of TvT, but there's no question that the powerhouse INnoVation could still do very well even if he advances from a lower position. Consequently, the last on the list of Korean Terrans in this group is ForGG, who unlike a fine wine, has not improved in quality by spending years in France. Still, he'll probably do a bit better than our last player...
Sjowflake's Chance in Hell:
prOp.SjoWSeeing his Swedish flag mixed in among four Korean flags leaves little hope for anything but elimination for SjoW. But… He did beat Life once. And if one can appear out of nowhere and defeat Life, one should definitely be able to defeat ForGG, right? And even if SjoW is eliminated here, he can take solace in the fact that he is still the top placing European Terran of the year.
Group D: HerO, Jaedong, Leenock, Goswser, Welmu's Ghost
by CosmicSpiralTo the Winners Bracket: 1.
Liquid`HerO, 2. EG.JaedongTo the Losers Bracket: 3.
FXO.Leenock 4. Mill.GoswserPlease Hold a Candle in Remembrance:
NrS.WelmuWith Welmu dropping out due to illness the group dynamic becomes much simpler to describe. Welmu had gathered some serious momentum heading into this weekend, and his presence will be sorely missed. At the same time there’s no worrying over which foreigner is going to get the axe. Everyone advances so it’s just a matter of approximating what slots everyone falls into.
It’s been a quiet summer for HerO. It hasn’t been from a lack of exposure; in fact, he’s been pretty much everywhere. HerO just hasn’t made a memorable impact in the tournaments. Either he got unceremoniously punted out before the semifinals (IEM NY, HSC VIII, WCS America, Blizzcon) or he dropped out in the group stage before hype started to build (WCS Season 3 Finals). His failure to impress can be largely blamed on the mirror matchup, whose strange twists and turns still haunt him to this day. Luckily this won’t be a problem here. Welmu’s absence leaves only 3 zergs to prepare for, and HerO’s PvZ is still solid enough to make any zerg quiver.
By now Jaedong is probably tired of being the King of Kongs. It’s a great moniker to make jokes about but a terrible burden on your sense of self, and he has endured enough silver medals to drive anyone crazy. After getting walloped by sOs on the biggest stage of the year, Dreamhack Winter offers a chance at sweet compensation. Jaedong should have no problem getting through this group even though his ZvZ has looked surprisingly shaky over the last 3 weeks. He’ll still have to worry about PvZ in the later stages; Jaedong has lost 9 out of his last 13 series in the matchup. Even Patience could prove to be a serious challenge if they ever meet.
Heart of the Swarm left the Zerg hierarchy in disarray and it’s taken a while for the old stalwarts to become relevant again. Besides a 1st place finish at Dreamhack Stockholm, Leenock has been all but invisible in 2013. His Ro8 run at HomeStory Cup was slightly assuring in the sense that Leenock is climbing his way back to prominence. However, his victories were largely unconvincing and he has shown a spotty track record leading up to today. Sometimes he beats great players in clutch situations, sometimes he loses to Tassadar. Leenock should end up in the losers bracket based on history but I wouldn’t be surprised if he stomps the group either.
I can’t help but feel a little guilty putting Goswser last. He’s one of the most underrated foreigners out there, cited as perpetually cheesy and abusive as if his Korean counterparts were paradigms of pure macro play themselves. That stubborn resolve made him the highest placing foreigner at Dreamhack Valencia and an oddly sturdy opponent for TaeJa at Assembly Summer. If this write-up was posted in August, I would’ve given him a decent shot to reach top 2 with an unforeseen upset. However, that form might’ve been a one-time deal. Since his summer peak Goswser has only displayed forgettable performances, dropping out of WCS America and dropping the majority of his matches in ATC. One can only hope the lack of pressure inspires him to attain that former level of play.
