On October 28 2013 09:37 hzflank wrote: It calculates odds by running a simulation a few million times. Every time that you run it you might get very slightly different results.
If you wanted to calculate the odds directly (no simulations) then you would have to rewrite the formula after ever tournament / game.
Actually if you wanna talk programming then it could be done with a back tracking method instead of monte carlo. It would be as accurate as can be and wouldn't be much harder than monte carlo. But to simulate a full season with back tracking would require like terabytes of ram and a ton of cpu time too lol.
There are only three scenarios left, so the fancy simulations have finally reached their conclusion.
1. Revival does not make Top 2 in his Challenger WCS AM group. Naniwa goes to BlizzCon as the 16th player to play against Soulkey in the Ro16. 2. Revival makes Top 2 in his Challenger WCS AM group. Revival and Naniwa go to BlizzCon to play a Bo5 tiebreaker. Naniwa wins and becomes the 16th player to play against Soulkey in the Ro16. 3. Revival makes Top 2 in his Challenger WCS AM group. Revival and Naniwa go to BlizzCon to play a Bo5 tiebreaker. Revival wins and becomes the 16th player to play against Soulkey in the Ro16.
On October 28 2013 09:40 dcemuser wrote: There are only three scenarios left, so the fancy simulations have finally reached their conclusion.
1. Revival does not make Top 2 in his Challenger WCS AM group. Naniwa goes to BlizzCon as the 16th player to play against Soulkey in the Ro16. 2. Revival makes Top 2 in his Challenger WCS AM group. Revival and Naniwa go to BlizzCon to play a Bo5 tiebreaker. Naniwa wins and becomes the 16th player to play against Soulkey in the Ro16. 3. Revival makes Top 2 in his Challenger WCS AM group. Revival and Naniwa go to BlizzCon to play a Bo5 tiebreaker. Revival wins and becomes the 16th player to play against Soulkey in the Ro16.
Yea there's no reason for me to update this anymore. It's been a fun season. I look forward to doing WCS Predictor 2014!
On October 28 2013 09:42 Die4Ever wrote: Yea there's no reason for me to update this anymore. It's been a fun season. I look forward to doing WCS Predictor 2014!
I look forward to spam refreshing it like I have this thread.
On October 28 2013 10:29 Popkiller wrote: what are the scenarios for the Ro16 bracket seeds, though? Are Naniwa/Revival and Mvp/Alive the only remaining variables?
Yes. aLive wins his Challenger League group, he faces Polt, Mvp faces Jaedong. If aLive doesn't win his Challenger League group, Mvp faces Polt, aLive faces Jaedong.
If Revival wins his Challenger League group, tiebreaker match vs. NaNiwa for 16th place, if Revival doesn't win his Challenger League match, NaNiwa is the 16th seed.
On October 28 2013 10:29 Popkiller wrote: what are the scenarios for the Ro16 bracket seeds, though? Are Naniwa/Revival and Mvp/Alive the only remaining variables?
Yes. aLive wins his Challenger League group, he faces Polt, Mvp faces Jaedong. If aLive doesn't win his Challenger League group, Mvp faces Polt, aLive faces Jaedong.
If Revival wins his Challenger League group, tiebreaker match vs. NaNiwa for 16th place, if Revival doesn't win his Challenger League match, NaNiwa is the 16th seed.
hang on, are Mvp and Alive actually tied? Blizzards WCS website has Mvp at 3575 points, not 3600:
On October 28 2013 10:29 Popkiller wrote: what are the scenarios for the Ro16 bracket seeds, though? Are Naniwa/Revival and Mvp/Alive the only remaining variables?
Yes. aLive wins his Challenger League group, he faces Polt, Mvp faces Jaedong. If aLive doesn't win his Challenger League group, Mvp faces Polt, aLive faces Jaedong.
If Revival wins his Challenger League group, tiebreaker match vs. NaNiwa for 16th place, if Revival doesn't win his Challenger League match, NaNiwa is the 16th seed.
hang on, are Mvp and Alive actually tied? Blizzards WCS website has Mvp at 3575 points, not 3600:
On October 28 2013 10:29 Popkiller wrote: what are the scenarios for the Ro16 bracket seeds, though? Are Naniwa/Revival and Mvp/Alive the only remaining variables?
Yes. aLive wins his Challenger League group, he faces Polt, Mvp faces Jaedong. If aLive doesn't win his Challenger League group, Mvp faces Polt, aLive faces Jaedong.
If Revival wins his Challenger League group, tiebreaker match vs. NaNiwa for 16th place, if Revival doesn't win his Challenger League match, NaNiwa is the 16th seed.
hang on, are Mvp and Alive actually tied? Blizzards WCS website has Mvp at 3575 points, not 3600:
EPT
