• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 22:15
CEST 04:15
KST 11:15
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Ro4 Preview: Mirror Mirror6[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: Within Reach5[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: In A Tizzy11[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Holy Diver5[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Rough Waters10
Community News
Weekly Cups (October 5-11): Farewell to 5.0.162Rollback Netcode in Brood War995.0.17 Patch Notes - October 7, 202624Weekly Cups Results (Sep 28-Oct 4)0SC4ALL: II SC2 Complete Invited Player Lineup10
StarCraft 2
General
SCII needs to put more weight on strategy and tact Server Blocker How do you feel about the mass reverts in the 5.0.17 PTR? 5.0.17 Patch Notes - October 7, 2026 ESL Pro Tour for SC2 discontinued
Tourneys
Master Swan Open (Global Bronze-Master 2) $3,500 WardiTV Not-Summer Championship Stellar Fest TWO the Moon (Dec 16-20) ISSL (IntoTheTV x SOOP SC2 League): Premier RSL 2026 Offline Finals LCQ Sign-Ups
Strategy
[H] ZvP Mid-Late Game: Stalkers Collossi HT
Custom Maps
[G] How to playtest arcade maps [A] Nemrods 1/4 players [M] (2) Sweltering Sands [M] (2) Frigid Storage
External Content
The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 547 Temple Of Terror Mutation # 546 Catch the Train Mutation # 545 And Drops and Rifts
Brood War
General
Sagi.gg Launcher Released Bot on ladder BW General Discussion BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ Rollback Netcode in Brood War
Tourneys
[Women's StarCraft] MonstarZ vs Dreams 2026-10-15 ASL 22 Finals [Megathread] Daily Proleagues [ASL22] Semifinal B
Strategy
Cliff Jump Revisited (1 in a 1000 strategy) Simple Questions, Simple Answers Replay Review Process - What do you do?
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread Dawn of War IV General RTS Discussion Thread Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne
Dota 2
Dota 2 Champions League Season 3 Begins April 25!
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread US Politics Mega-thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Artificial Intelligence Thread Canadian Politics Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
Serral Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Movie Discussion! Diablo Animated Series on Netflix
Sports
Football (Soccer) Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 MLB/Baseball 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
Recent Gifted Posts
Blogs
The Link Between Gaming and …
TrAiDoS
[ASL22] Ro4 Day1 Ticket Giv…
bITt.mAN
38 yo Retired SWE loo…
PurE)Rabbit-SF
Can Bots Beat Pros?? Starcr…
namkraft
[meme] I finally understa…
LUCKY_NOOB
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 10780 users

Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 73

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 71 72 73 74 75 78 Next
Stoffelhase
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany162 Posts
October 27 2013 23:24 GMT
#1441
On October 28 2013 08:16 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 08:14 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.

fucked over? they offered him free 75 points with a chance of way more and a seeded spot close to good price money.. only that made it even possible for him to have a chance to tie with naniwa.. still hugely unfair in my eyes

Blizzard/NASL didn't offer Revival the spot at IEM. IEM/ESL did. They offered the players with the most WCS points until someone said yes to replacing ForGG, Revival was the first to say yes.

You try to make it sound like their choice was reasonable. They offered him the seeded EU qualifier spot, where he did not even play. Grubby was pretty mad about this because he was 3/4th place with nerchio in that qualifier and didnt get offered that seeded spot. Pretty redicilous.
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52798 Posts
October 27 2013 23:34 GMT
#1442
And today naniwa fans rejoiced
ModeratorI am still alive, somehow
TL+ Member
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17750 Posts
October 27 2013 23:35 GMT
#1443
updated with results of Soulkey vs Trap.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Dingodile
Profile Joined December 2011
4139 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 23:37:16
October 27 2013 23:36 GMT
#1444
On October 28 2013 08:24 Stoffelhase wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 08:16 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 08:14 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.

fucked over? they offered him free 75 points with a chance of way more and a seeded spot close to good price money.. only that made it even possible for him to have a chance to tie with naniwa.. still hugely unfair in my eyes

Blizzard/NASL didn't offer Revival the spot at IEM. IEM/ESL did. They offered the players with the most WCS points until someone said yes to replacing ForGG, Revival was the first to say yes.

You try to make it sound like their choice was reasonable. They offered him the seeded EU qualifier spot, where he did not even play. Grubby was pretty mad about this because he was 3/4th place with nerchio in that qualifier and didnt get offered that seeded spot. Pretty redicilous.

Despite EU qualifier ESL payed a trip from Korea to NY because ForGG lived in Korea at this time. ESL did tell Grubby and Nerchio about a qualifier spot at IEM NY. So then Revival just takes ForGG ticket without any rebooking.
Grubby | ToD | Moon | Lyn | Sky
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 27 2013 23:38 GMT
#1445
Soulkey is Officially our #1 Seed going into Blizzcon!
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
October 27 2013 23:39 GMT
#1446
So after the s3 finals we still do not know whether Naniwa makes it to Blizzcon. Well, he will be at Blizzcon but he might not make it into the tournament.
9-BiT
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
United States1089 Posts
October 27 2013 23:39 GMT
#1447
And Naniwa is IN!
kwark_uk: @father_sc learn to play maybe?
gedatsu
Profile Joined December 2011
1286 Posts
October 27 2013 23:39 GMT
#1448
On October 28 2013 08:35 Die4Ever wrote:
updated with results of Soulkey vs Trap.

You should probably just change it to:

Revival loses his group 10% of the time, this increases Naniwa's chances to 100%

Revival wins his group, this decreases Naniwa's chances to 70% (that's what aligulac had, right?)
HelpMeGetBetter
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
United States766 Posts
October 27 2013 23:39 GMT
#1449
Naniwa willthere for at least the tie breaker match right? WOOHOO!
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97277 Posts
October 27 2013 23:40 GMT
#1450
Glorious day for Revival fans! Thanks Soulkey!
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17750 Posts
October 27 2013 23:40 GMT
#1451
On October 28 2013 08:38 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
Soulkey is Officially our #1 Seed going into Blizzcon!

I'm pretty excited to see what the matchups will be after this finals, cause Dear could move up to 6th spot if he wins.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 27 2013 23:40 GMT
#1452
On October 28 2013 08:39 hzflank wrote:
So after the s3 finals we still do not know whether Naniwa makes it to Blizzcon. Well, he will be at Blizzcon but he might not make it into the tournament.

Since the showmatch (if it happens) will be at Blizzcon, we might as well consider it part of Blizzcon. right?
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
Joneleth
Profile Joined July 2012
Denmark90 Posts
October 27 2013 23:41 GMT
#1453
On October 28 2013 08:36 Dingodile wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 08:24 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 08:16 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 08:14 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.

fucked over? they offered him free 75 points with a chance of way more and a seeded spot close to good price money.. only that made it even possible for him to have a chance to tie with naniwa.. still hugely unfair in my eyes

Blizzard/NASL didn't offer Revival the spot at IEM. IEM/ESL did. They offered the players with the most WCS points until someone said yes to replacing ForGG, Revival was the first to say yes.

You try to make it sound like their choice was reasonable. They offered him the seeded EU qualifier spot, where he did not even play. Grubby was pretty mad about this because he was 3/4th place with nerchio in that qualifier and didnt get offered that seeded spot. Pretty redicilous.

Despite EU qualifier ESL payed a trip from Korea to NY because ForGG lived in Korea at this time. ESL did tell Grubby and Nerchio about a qualifier spot at IEM NY. So then Revival just takes ForGG ticket without any rebooking.


Why would they pay a trip from Korea when ForGG lives in france?
Rape is such an ugly word, lets call it surprise sex!
SNSeigifried
Profile Joined April 2013
United States1640 Posts
October 27 2013 23:42 GMT
#1454
Someone already started the bracket but forgot that alive still has 25 points to gain from challenger league group so it will either be polt vs alive or jaedong vs alive and mvp vs polt or mvp vs jaedong depending on him making it out of his group :D!
Icebound Esports
75
Profile Joined December 2012
Germany4057 Posts
October 27 2013 23:43 GMT
#1455
funny how #1 in wcs points has the disadvantage to not know what player he is facing.
yo twitch, as long as I can watch 480p lagfree I'm happy
Facultyadjutant
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Sweden1876 Posts
October 27 2013 23:44 GMT
#1456
who will revival meet in his challenger group, when is blizzcon?
#1 FAN OF TERRY THE INTERN - NONY AND IDRA NUMBER #1, EVERY DAY. AXIOM MANOR - Axiom: Ryung, Alicia, Heart and Crank under the Don TotalBiscuit and the Donnesa Genna Bain- Join the family http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=396090#2
Joneleth
Profile Joined July 2012
Denmark90 Posts
October 27 2013 23:44 GMT
#1457
The odds for naniwa makes no sense, no matter who wins the WCS finals his chances drop?
Rape is such an ugly word, lets call it surprise sex!
Dingodile
Profile Joined December 2011
4139 Posts
October 27 2013 23:46 GMT
#1458
On October 28 2013 08:41 Joneleth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 08:36 Dingodile wrote:
On October 28 2013 08:24 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 08:16 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 08:14 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.

fucked over? they offered him free 75 points with a chance of way more and a seeded spot close to good price money.. only that made it even possible for him to have a chance to tie with naniwa.. still hugely unfair in my eyes

Blizzard/NASL didn't offer Revival the spot at IEM. IEM/ESL did. They offered the players with the most WCS points until someone said yes to replacing ForGG, Revival was the first to say yes.

You try to make it sound like their choice was reasonable. They offered him the seeded EU qualifier spot, where he did not even play. Grubby was pretty mad about this because he was 3/4th place with nerchio in that qualifier and didnt get offered that seeded spot. Pretty redicilous.

Despite EU qualifier ESL payed a trip from Korea to NY because ForGG lived in Korea at this time. ESL did tell Grubby and Nerchio about a qualifier spot at IEM NY. So then Revival just takes ForGG ticket without any rebooking.


Why would they pay a trip from Korea when ForGG lives in france?

He was in Korea because of VISA (application for another 3/6/12 months).
Grubby | ToD | Moon | Lyn | Sky
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12583 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 23:48:42
October 27 2013 23:47 GMT
#1459
Considering Revival can only tie, shouldn't Naniwa be 100% already? Is the tie breaking the program or something? :D

Unless this accounts for the match Revival vs Naniwa at blizzcon and Nani is heavily favored. Come to think of it, that's likely accurate.
No will to live, no wish to die
Nine Gates
Profile Joined November 2012
Finland198 Posts
October 27 2013 23:48 GMT
#1460
On October 28 2013 08:44 Joneleth wrote:
The odds for naniwa makes no sense, no matter who wins the WCS finals his chances drop?
The probability simulation and the game-changer simulation are run with different sample sizes. It's just a random deviation.
1112345678999
Prev 1 71 72 73 74 75 78 Next
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
OSC
08:00
OSC Elite Rising Star #21
CranKy Ducklings51
Liquipedia
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
ViBE160
RuFF_SC2 135
CosmosSc2 24
StarCraft: Brood War
Rain 2778
GuemChi 1692
White-Ra 255
NaDa 49
Terrorterran 11
ajuk12(nOOB) 10
Dota 2
NeuroSwarm219
PGG 152
League of Legends
JimRising 672
Counter-Strike
taco 533
minikerr13
Other Games
summit1g6342
Day[9].tv345
C9.Mang0329
WinterStarcraft305
PiGStarcraft257
Livibee155
Coldzera 73
[ Show 15 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• EnkiAlexander 60
• CranKy Ducklings SOOP28
• Hinosc 16
• Nickrosys12
• Response 2
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• Pr0nogo 1
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Other Games
• Day9tv345
Upcoming Events
Online Event
8h 45m
Korean StarCraft League
1d
Afreeca Starleague
1d 3h
Rush vs Soulkey
CranKy Ducklings
1d 7h
AI Arena Tournament
1d 13h
BSL Open Qualifier
1d 16h
Sparkling Tuna Cup
2 days
OSC
2 days
IPSL
2 days
BSL Open Qualifier
2 days
[ Show More ]
WardiTV Weekly
3 days
IntoTheTV X SOOP
4 days
PiGosaur Cup
4 days
The PondCast
5 days
Kung Fu Cup
5 days
IntoTheTV X SOOP
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Super Anchor Qualifying S3
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Copium Cup

Ongoing

ASL Season 22
Acropolis #5
HCC Season 3
Thunderpick World Champ. '26
ESL Pro League Season 24
Stake Ranked Episode 4
1win Private Club #1
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
SL StarSeries Fall 2026
FISSURE Playground #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026

Upcoming

Acropolis #5 - GSC
BSL Season 23
SC4ALL II: Brood War
BSL 23: Non-Korean Championship
HSC XXX
Stellar Fest 2: Lunar Cup
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
eXTREMESLAND 2026
PGL Major Singapore 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 6
BLAST Rivals Fall 2026
IEM Beijing 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 5
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
1win Private Club #2
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.