• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 07:01
CEST 13:01
KST 20:01
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
2v2 & SC: Evo Complete: Weekend Double Feature2Team Liquid Map Contest #21 - Presented by Monster Energy8uThermal's 2v2 Tour: $15,000 Main Event17Serral wins EWC 202549Tournament Spotlight: FEL Cracow 202510
Community News
Weekly Cups (Aug 4-10): MaxPax wins a triple6SC2's Safe House 2 - October 18 & 195Weekly Cups (Jul 28-Aug 3): herO doubles up6LiuLi Cup - August 2025 Tournaments7[BSL 2025] H2 - Team Wars, Weeklies & SB Ladder10
StarCraft 2
General
RSL Revival patreon money discussion thread #1: Maru - Greatest Players of All Time 2v2 & SC: Evo Complete: Weekend Double Feature Is there a way to see if 2 accounts=1 person? uThermal's 2v2 Tour: $15,000 Main Event
Tourneys
Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series LiuLi Cup - August 2025 Tournaments SEL Masters #5 - Korea vs Russia (SC Evo) Enki Epic Series #5 - TaeJa vs Classic (SC Evo)
Strategy
Custom Maps
External Content
Mutation # 486 Watch the Skies Mutation # 485 Death from Below Mutation # 484 Magnetic Pull Mutation #239 Bad Weather
Brood War
General
BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ ASL 20 HYPE VIDEO! Soma Explains: JaeDong's Double Muta Micro BW AKA finder tool ASL20 Pre-season Tier List ranking!
Tourneys
Cosmonarchy Pro Showmatches KCM 2025 Season 3 [Megathread] Daily Proleagues Small VOD Thread 2.0
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Fighting Spirit mining rates [G] Mineral Boosting Muta micro map competition
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread Total Annihilation Server - TAForever Beyond All Reason [MMORPG] Tree of Savior (Successor of Ragnarok)
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread The Games Industry And ATVI The year 2050
Fan Clubs
INnoVation Fan Club SKT1 Classic Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread [\m/] Heavy Metal Thread Movie Discussion! Korean Music Discussion
Sports
2024 - 2025 Football Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 Formula 1 Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Gtx660 graphics card replacement Installation of Windows 10 suck at "just a moment" Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
TeamLiquid Team Shirt On Sale The Automated Ban List
Blogs
The Biochemical Cost of Gami…
TrAiDoS
[Girl blog} My fema…
artosisisthebest
Sharpening the Filtration…
frozenclaw
ASL S20 English Commentary…
namkraft
StarCraft improvement
iopq
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1740 users

Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 73

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 71 72 73 74 75 78 Next
Stoffelhase
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany162 Posts
October 27 2013 23:24 GMT
#1441
On October 28 2013 08:16 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 08:14 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.

fucked over? they offered him free 75 points with a chance of way more and a seeded spot close to good price money.. only that made it even possible for him to have a chance to tie with naniwa.. still hugely unfair in my eyes

Blizzard/NASL didn't offer Revival the spot at IEM. IEM/ESL did. They offered the players with the most WCS points until someone said yes to replacing ForGG, Revival was the first to say yes.

You try to make it sound like their choice was reasonable. They offered him the seeded EU qualifier spot, where he did not even play. Grubby was pretty mad about this because he was 3/4th place with nerchio in that qualifier and didnt get offered that seeded spot. Pretty redicilous.
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
October 27 2013 23:34 GMT
#1442
And today naniwa fans rejoiced
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17676 Posts
October 27 2013 23:35 GMT
#1443
updated with results of Soulkey vs Trap.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Dingodile
Profile Joined December 2011
4133 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 23:37:16
October 27 2013 23:36 GMT
#1444
On October 28 2013 08:24 Stoffelhase wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 08:16 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 08:14 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.

fucked over? they offered him free 75 points with a chance of way more and a seeded spot close to good price money.. only that made it even possible for him to have a chance to tie with naniwa.. still hugely unfair in my eyes

Blizzard/NASL didn't offer Revival the spot at IEM. IEM/ESL did. They offered the players with the most WCS points until someone said yes to replacing ForGG, Revival was the first to say yes.

You try to make it sound like their choice was reasonable. They offered him the seeded EU qualifier spot, where he did not even play. Grubby was pretty mad about this because he was 3/4th place with nerchio in that qualifier and didnt get offered that seeded spot. Pretty redicilous.

Despite EU qualifier ESL payed a trip from Korea to NY because ForGG lived in Korea at this time. ESL did tell Grubby and Nerchio about a qualifier spot at IEM NY. So then Revival just takes ForGG ticket without any rebooking.
Grubby | ToD | Moon | Lyn | Sky
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 27 2013 23:38 GMT
#1445
Soulkey is Officially our #1 Seed going into Blizzcon!
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
October 27 2013 23:39 GMT
#1446
So after the s3 finals we still do not know whether Naniwa makes it to Blizzcon. Well, he will be at Blizzcon but he might not make it into the tournament.
9-BiT
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
United States1089 Posts
October 27 2013 23:39 GMT
#1447
And Naniwa is IN!
kwark_uk: @father_sc learn to play maybe?
gedatsu
Profile Joined December 2011
1286 Posts
October 27 2013 23:39 GMT
#1448
On October 28 2013 08:35 Die4Ever wrote:
updated with results of Soulkey vs Trap.

You should probably just change it to:

Revival loses his group 10% of the time, this increases Naniwa's chances to 100%

Revival wins his group, this decreases Naniwa's chances to 70% (that's what aligulac had, right?)
HelpMeGetBetter
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
United States764 Posts
October 27 2013 23:39 GMT
#1449
Naniwa willthere for at least the tie breaker match right? WOOHOO!
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 27 2013 23:40 GMT
#1450
Glorious day for Revival fans! Thanks Soulkey!
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17676 Posts
October 27 2013 23:40 GMT
#1451
On October 28 2013 08:38 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
Soulkey is Officially our #1 Seed going into Blizzcon!

I'm pretty excited to see what the matchups will be after this finals, cause Dear could move up to 6th spot if he wins.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 27 2013 23:40 GMT
#1452
On October 28 2013 08:39 hzflank wrote:
So after the s3 finals we still do not know whether Naniwa makes it to Blizzcon. Well, he will be at Blizzcon but he might not make it into the tournament.

Since the showmatch (if it happens) will be at Blizzcon, we might as well consider it part of Blizzcon. right?
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
Joneleth
Profile Joined July 2012
Denmark90 Posts
October 27 2013 23:41 GMT
#1453
On October 28 2013 08:36 Dingodile wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 08:24 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 08:16 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 08:14 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.

fucked over? they offered him free 75 points with a chance of way more and a seeded spot close to good price money.. only that made it even possible for him to have a chance to tie with naniwa.. still hugely unfair in my eyes

Blizzard/NASL didn't offer Revival the spot at IEM. IEM/ESL did. They offered the players with the most WCS points until someone said yes to replacing ForGG, Revival was the first to say yes.

You try to make it sound like their choice was reasonable. They offered him the seeded EU qualifier spot, where he did not even play. Grubby was pretty mad about this because he was 3/4th place with nerchio in that qualifier and didnt get offered that seeded spot. Pretty redicilous.

Despite EU qualifier ESL payed a trip from Korea to NY because ForGG lived in Korea at this time. ESL did tell Grubby and Nerchio about a qualifier spot at IEM NY. So then Revival just takes ForGG ticket without any rebooking.


Why would they pay a trip from Korea when ForGG lives in france?
Rape is such an ugly word, lets call it surprise sex!
SNSeigifried
Profile Joined April 2013
United States1640 Posts
October 27 2013 23:42 GMT
#1454
Someone already started the bracket but forgot that alive still has 25 points to gain from challenger league group so it will either be polt vs alive or jaedong vs alive and mvp vs polt or mvp vs jaedong depending on him making it out of his group :D!
Icebound Esports
75
Profile Joined December 2012
Germany4057 Posts
October 27 2013 23:43 GMT
#1455
funny how #1 in wcs points has the disadvantage to not know what player he is facing.
yo twitch, as long as I can watch 480p lagfree I'm happy
Facultyadjutant
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Sweden1876 Posts
October 27 2013 23:44 GMT
#1456
who will revival meet in his challenger group, when is blizzcon?
#1 FAN OF TERRY THE INTERN - NONY AND IDRA NUMBER #1, EVERY DAY. AXIOM MANOR - Axiom: Ryung, Alicia, Heart and Crank under the Don TotalBiscuit and the Donnesa Genna Bain- Join the family http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=396090#2
Joneleth
Profile Joined July 2012
Denmark90 Posts
October 27 2013 23:44 GMT
#1457
The odds for naniwa makes no sense, no matter who wins the WCS finals his chances drop?
Rape is such an ugly word, lets call it surprise sex!
Dingodile
Profile Joined December 2011
4133 Posts
October 27 2013 23:46 GMT
#1458
On October 28 2013 08:41 Joneleth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 08:36 Dingodile wrote:
On October 28 2013 08:24 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 08:16 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 08:14 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.

fucked over? they offered him free 75 points with a chance of way more and a seeded spot close to good price money.. only that made it even possible for him to have a chance to tie with naniwa.. still hugely unfair in my eyes

Blizzard/NASL didn't offer Revival the spot at IEM. IEM/ESL did. They offered the players with the most WCS points until someone said yes to replacing ForGG, Revival was the first to say yes.

You try to make it sound like their choice was reasonable. They offered him the seeded EU qualifier spot, where he did not even play. Grubby was pretty mad about this because he was 3/4th place with nerchio in that qualifier and didnt get offered that seeded spot. Pretty redicilous.

Despite EU qualifier ESL payed a trip from Korea to NY because ForGG lived in Korea at this time. ESL did tell Grubby and Nerchio about a qualifier spot at IEM NY. So then Revival just takes ForGG ticket without any rebooking.


Why would they pay a trip from Korea when ForGG lives in france?

He was in Korea because of VISA (application for another 3/6/12 months).
Grubby | ToD | Moon | Lyn | Sky
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12204 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 23:48:42
October 27 2013 23:47 GMT
#1459
Considering Revival can only tie, shouldn't Naniwa be 100% already? Is the tie breaking the program or something? :D

Unless this accounts for the match Revival vs Naniwa at blizzcon and Nani is heavily favored. Come to think of it, that's likely accurate.
No will to live, no wish to die
Nine Gates
Profile Joined November 2012
Finland198 Posts
October 27 2013 23:48 GMT
#1460
On October 28 2013 08:44 Joneleth wrote:
The odds for naniwa makes no sense, no matter who wins the WCS finals his chances drop?
The probability simulation and the game-changer simulation are run with different sample sizes. It's just a random deviation.
1112345678999
Prev 1 71 72 73 74 75 78 Next
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
WardiTV Summer Champion…
11:00
Group Stage 1 - Group D
WardiTV70
Rex43
Liquipedia
Sparkling Tuna Cup
10:00
Weekly #102
TBD vs Percival
TBD vs NightMare
CranKy Ducklings129
Liquipedia
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
mouzHeroMarine 547
Hui .193
Rex 43
MindelVK 24
trigger 21
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 34762
Calm 4763
Rain 2383
Pusan 423
EffOrt 257
sorry 194
ToSsGirL 193
Soma 189
ggaemo 171
Last 170
[ Show more ]
Hyun 84
JYJ82
Killer 74
Aegong 41
scan(afreeca) 18
Sacsri 17
ajuk12(nOOB) 17
Hm[arnc] 15
SilentControl 9
ivOry 5
Sea.KH 4
zelot 3
Icarus 0
Dota 2
XcaliburYe540
ODPixel347
Counter-Strike
Stewie2K928
x6flipin515
Other Games
gofns13761
singsing1843
Happy548
B2W.Neo484
Pyrionflax290
XaKoH 221
DeMusliM69
RotterdaM53
Organizations
StarCraft: Brood War
UltimateBattle 15
CasterMuse 14
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 12 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Stunt703
Other Games
• WagamamaTV478
Upcoming Events
SC Evo League
59m
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
3h 59m
BSL Team Wars
7h 59m
Team Dewalt vs Team Bonyth
Afreeca Starleague
22h 59m
Sharp vs Ample
Larva vs Stork
Wardi Open
23h 59m
RotterdaM Event
1d 4h
Replay Cast
1d 12h
Replay Cast
1d 22h
Afreeca Starleague
1d 22h
JyJ vs TY
Bisu vs Speed
WardiTV Summer Champion…
1d 23h
[ Show More ]
PiGosaur Monday
2 days
Afreeca Starleague
2 days
Mini vs TBD
Soma vs sSak
WardiTV Summer Champion…
2 days
Replay Cast
3 days
The PondCast
3 days
WardiTV Summer Champion…
3 days
Replay Cast
4 days
LiuLi Cup
4 days
BSL Team Wars
5 days
Team Hawk vs Team Dewalt
Korean StarCraft League
5 days
CranKy Ducklings
5 days
SC Evo League
6 days
WardiTV Summer Champion…
6 days
[BSL 2025] Weekly
6 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2025-08-13
FEL Cracow 2025
CC Div. A S7

Ongoing

Copa Latinoamericana 4
Jiahua Invitational
BSL 20 Team Wars
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 3
BSL 21 Qualifiers
CSL Season 18: Qualifier 1
SEL Season 2 Championship
WardiTV Summer 2025
HCC Europe
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
FISSURE Playground #1
BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025

Upcoming

ASL Season 20
CSLAN 3
CSL 2025 AUTUMN (S18)
LASL Season 20
BSL Season 21
BSL 21 Team A
RSL Revival: Season 2
Maestros of the Game
PGL Masters Bucharest 2025
Thunderpick World Champ.
MESA Nomadic Masters Fall
CS Asia Championships 2025
Roobet Cup 2025
ESL Pro League S22
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.