• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EST 12:45
CET 18:45
KST 02:45
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Behind the Blue - Team Liquid History Book9Clem wins HomeStory Cup 289HomeStory Cup 28 - Info & Preview13Rongyi Cup S3 - Preview & Info6herO wins SC2 All-Star Invitational14
Community News
PIG STY FESTIVAL 7.0! (19 Feb - 1 Mar)9Weekly Cups (Jan 26-Feb 1): herO, Clem, ByuN, Classic win2RSL Season 4 announced for March-April7Weekly Cups (Jan 19-25): Bunny, Trigger, MaxPax win3Weekly Cups (Jan 12-18): herO, MaxPax, Solar win0
StarCraft 2
General
Behind the Blue - Team Liquid History Book How do you think the 5.0.15 balance patch (Oct 2025) for StarCraft II has affected the game? Rongyi Cup S3 - Preview & Info Clem wins HomeStory Cup 28 HomeStory Cup 28 - Info & Preview
Tourneys
PIG STY FESTIVAL 7.0! (19 Feb - 1 Mar) WardiTV Mondays $21,000 Rongyi Cup Season 3 announced (Jan 22-Feb 7) Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament $5,000 WardiTV Winter Championship 2026
Strategy
Custom Maps
Map Editor closed ? [A] Starcraft Sound Mod
External Content
Mutation # 512 Overclocked The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 511 Temple of Rebirth Mutation # 510 Safety Violation
Brood War
General
BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ [ASL21] Potential Map Candidates Gypsy to Korea BW General Discussion Liquipedia.net NEEDS editors for Brood War
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues Escore Tournament StarCraft Season 1 Small VOD Thread 2.0 KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 1
Strategy
Zealot bombing is no longer popular? Simple Questions, Simple Answers Current Meta Soma's 9 hatch build from ASL Game 2
Other Games
General Games
ZeroSpace Megathread Diablo 2 thread Battle Aces/David Kim RTS Megathread EVE Corporation Nintendo Switch Thread
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Vanilla Mini Mafia Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread YouTube Thread The Games Industry And ATVI Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine
Fan Clubs
The herO Fan Club! The IdrA Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Play, Watch, Drink: Esports …
TrAiDoS
My 2025 Magic: The Gathering…
DARKING
Life Update and thoughts.
FuDDx
How do archons sleep?
8882
StarCraft improvement
iopq
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1572 users

Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 72

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 70 71 72 73 74 78 Next
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 27 2013 22:07 GMT
#1421
On October 28 2013 07:00 ZeromuS wrote:
OK guys so tell me the % to use on our nani flag signs here at wcs

you might as well just write "Soulkey" since Trap is the only player there who can affect Naniwa.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
TheSilverfox
Profile Joined December 2010
Sweden1928 Posts
October 27 2013 22:09 GMT
#1422
On October 27 2013 13:16 NoGasfOu wrote:
Oh Dear. Thank god. Waiting for Oz to finish SoulKey and I'll will be a happy guy.


On October 27 2013 13:04 NoGasfOu wrote:
YES YES YES. Naniwa is half way in the hole. DOWN DOWN DOWN!!!!


On October 28 2013 06:09 NoGasfOu wrote:
There's no way Naniwa can stand a chance against Revival. Naniwa gets sent to more tournaments to get extra points, plus playing in the easiest region with the least Koreans but still having trouble getting through. That's disappointing as a player. So much opportunities but unable to capitalize.


Don't you have anything better to do than constantly bash against NaNiwa in this thread? This is just the last three, but pretty much every post from you have been Nani bashing instead of discussing the real thing: Blizzcon probabilities.
Also known as Joinsimon on Twitter/Reddit
75
Profile Joined December 2012
Germany4057 Posts
October 27 2013 22:15 GMT
#1423
naniwa with 71% chance of advanding and revival with only 12% ?
is it really that unlikely that revival will advance in his group and kill naniwa? or do i miss something?
yo twitch, as long as I can watch 480p lagfree I'm happy
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 22:22 GMT
#1424
On October 28 2013 07:15 75 wrote:
naniwa with 71% chance of advanding and revival with only 12% ?
is it really that unlikely that revival will advance in his group and kill naniwa? or do i miss something?

The simulation doesn't actually calculate the Challenger League group properly. It will go up within the next week after Revival's group.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17725 Posts
October 27 2013 22:29 GMT
#1425
Update posted with results of Dear vs Maru. Also Revival with 90% chance to get top 2 in his group by popular vote.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
illidanx
Profile Joined November 2011
United States973 Posts
October 27 2013 22:32 GMT
#1426
I hope Trap wins vs. Soulkey and Dear forfeit his match against Trap. That would be a middle finger to this stupid WCS system.
Die-hard KeSPA fan
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
October 27 2013 22:33 GMT
#1427
On October 28 2013 07:29 Die4Ever wrote:
Update posted with results of Dear vs Maru. Also Revival with 90% chance to get top 2 in his group by popular vote.

wait, then why is naniwa's chances much higher than revival's
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17725 Posts
October 27 2013 22:35 GMT
#1428
On October 28 2013 07:33 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 07:29 Die4Ever wrote:
Update posted with results of Dear vs Maru. Also Revival with 90% chance to get top 2 in his group by popular vote.

wait, then why is naniwa's chances much higher than revival's

because Naniwa has a way higher aligulac rating than Revival, so he is expected to win the best of 5 tie breaker
"Expert" mods4ever.com
KaiserKieran
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States615 Posts
October 27 2013 22:36 GMT
#1429
Everytime i read the OP i am reminded of HyuN's 0% probability of making it to Blizzcon...
+ Show Spoiler +
LIKE DIS IF YOU CRAH EVERTIME
Aegeis
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States1619 Posts
October 27 2013 22:39 GMT
#1430
oh man IT COMES DOWN TO A Bo5 for Naniwa
"Skills to pay the bills" - Artosis, https://twitter.com/AegeisSC2 ,http://www.tumblr.com/blog/socal-esports
Coolhwip
Profile Joined March 2011
Sweden1381 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 22:45:09
October 27 2013 22:44 GMT
#1431
edit:Wrong thread..
crack
iNsaNe-
Profile Joined January 2005
Finland5201 Posts
October 27 2013 22:51 GMT
#1432
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?
It takes a fool to remain sane.
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 27 2013 22:52 GMT
#1433
He was traveling to IEM so he couldnt play
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 22:55 GMT
#1434
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.
Facultyadjutant
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Sweden1876 Posts
October 27 2013 22:56 GMT
#1435
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.


So he can't get the 25 points?
#1 FAN OF TERRY THE INTERN - NONY AND IDRA NUMBER #1, EVERY DAY. AXIOM MANOR - Axiom: Ryung, Alicia, Heart and Crank under the Don TotalBiscuit and the Donnesa Genna Bain- Join the family http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=396090#2
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 27 2013 22:57 GMT
#1436
On October 28 2013 07:56 Facultyadjutant wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.


So he can't get the 25 points?

He can still get the 25 points from the group stage which hasn't been played yet
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18576 Posts
October 27 2013 23:03 GMT
#1437
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.


pretty sure if Revival had qualified for IEM they would have put his challenger league at another time
Stoffelhase
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany162 Posts
October 27 2013 23:14 GMT
#1438
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.

fucked over? they offered him free 75 points with a chance of way more and a seeded spot close to good price money.. only that made it even possible for him to have a chance to tie with naniwa.. still hugely unfair in my eyes
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 23:16 GMT
#1439
On October 28 2013 08:14 Stoffelhase wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 07:55 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 07:51 iNsaNe- wrote:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_3_America/Challenger#Group_Stage says that Revival forfeited the bracket stage match, did he forget to play or?

What Shellbot said, or in other words, he got fucked over by Blizzard/NASL's mediocre scheduling for Challenger League.

fucked over? they offered him free 75 points with a chance of way more and a seeded spot close to good price money.. only that made it even possible for him to have a chance to tie with naniwa.. still hugely unfair in my eyes

Blizzard/NASL didn't offer Revival the spot at IEM. IEM/ESL did. They offered the players with the most WCS points until someone said yes to replacing ForGG, Revival was the first to say yes.
Cereb
Profile Joined November 2011
Denmark3388 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 23:38:21
October 27 2013 23:24 GMT
#1440
Soulkey saves the day
"Until the very very top in almost anything, all that matters is how much work you put in. The only problem is most people can't work hard even at things they do enjoy, much less things they don't have a real passion for. -Greg "IdrA" Fields
Prev 1 70 71 72 73 74 78 Next
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Monday Night Weeklies
17:00
#39
RotterdaM583
IndyStarCraft 197
TKL 175
BRAT_OK 113
SteadfastSC63
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
Grubby 2772
RotterdaM 583
mouzHeroMarine 279
IndyStarCraft 197
TKL 175
BRAT_OK 113
UpATreeSC 71
SteadfastSC 63
StarCraft: Brood War
Calm 3474
Bisu 1011
firebathero 507
EffOrt 332
Hyuk 316
Mini 311
Larva 257
Sharp 213
ggaemo 174
Soulkey 155
[ Show more ]
hero 89
Bonyth 86
Mong 85
Mind 46
Movie 36
Aegong 26
Shinee 25
Shuttle 22
Rock 21
soO 18
Shine 11
JulyZerg 7
Dota 2
Gorgc3762
qojqva1914
420jenkins223
BananaSlamJamma88
League of Legends
C9.Mang058
Counter-Strike
fl0m1557
oskar111
adren_tv109
ptr_tv63
Other Games
FrodaN2531
hiko916
Beastyqt811
ArmadaUGS219
crisheroes202
Mew2King122
Hui .90
Trikslyr43
MindelVK8
Organizations
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 17 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• StrangeGG 38
• Shameless 19
• iHatsuTV 7
• Migwel
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• sooper7s
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
StarCraft: Brood War
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
Dota 2
• WagamamaTV392
League of Legends
• TFBlade1728
• Shiphtur446
• Stunt394
Upcoming Events
Replay Cast
6h 15m
Sparkling Tuna Cup
16h 15m
LiuLi Cup
17h 15m
Reynor vs Creator
Maru vs Lambo
PiGosaur Monday
1d 7h
Replay Cast
1d 15h
LiuLi Cup
1d 17h
Clem vs Rogue
SHIN vs Cyan
The PondCast
2 days
KCM Race Survival
2 days
LiuLi Cup
2 days
Scarlett vs TriGGeR
ByuN vs herO
Replay Cast
3 days
[ Show More ]
Online Event
3 days
LiuLi Cup
3 days
Serral vs Zoun
Cure vs Classic
RSL Revival
4 days
RSL Revival
4 days
LiuLi Cup
4 days
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
4 days
RSL Revival
5 days
Replay Cast
5 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
5 days
LiuLi Cup
5 days
Replay Cast
6 days
Replay Cast
6 days
LiuLi Cup
6 days
Wardi Open
6 days
Monday Night Weeklies
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

CSL 2025 WINTER (S19)
Rongyi Cup S3
Underdog Cup #3

Ongoing

KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 1
Nations Cup 2026
IEM Kraków 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter Qual
eXTREMESLAND 2025
SL Budapest Major 2025
ESL Impact League Season 8

Upcoming

Escore Tournament S1: W8
Acropolis #4
IPSL Spring 2026
HSC XXIX
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
Bellum Gens Elite Stara Zagora 2026
RSL Revival: Season 4
WardiTV Winter 2026
LiuLi Cup: 2025 Grand Finals
CCT Season 3 Global Finals
FISSURE Playground #3
IEM Rio 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1
BLAST Open Spring 2026
ESL Pro League Season 23
ESL Pro League Season 23
PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.