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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 71

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
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frogrubdown
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
1266 Posts
October 27 2013 20:26 GMT
#1401
On October 28 2013 05:25 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 05:21 frogrubdown wrote:
On October 28 2013 05:18 Die4Ever wrote:
updated with results of Trap vs Byul.
For Naniwa fans he's at 71.5%, if Trap loses to Soulkey then Naniwa's chances go up to 85.6%.


Whoa, Naniwa is favored 70-30 over Revival? Sounds like the 50-50 prediction will be more trustworthy.

No, NaNiwa is favored because Revival's Challenger group hasn't happened yet.


I factored that in. Naniwa is favored roughly 70-30 by aligulac in his match against revival.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17738 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 20:39:44
October 27 2013 20:29 GMT
#1402
On October 28 2013 05:26 frogrubdown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 05:25 Elite_ wrote:
On October 28 2013 05:21 frogrubdown wrote:
On October 28 2013 05:18 Die4Ever wrote:
updated with results of Trap vs Byul.
For Naniwa fans he's at 71.5%, if Trap loses to Soulkey then Naniwa's chances go up to 85.6%.


Whoa, Naniwa is favored 70-30 over Revival? Sounds like the 50-50 prediction will be more trustworthy.

No, NaNiwa is favored because Revival's Challenger group hasn't happened yet.


I factored that in. Naniwa is favored roughly 70-30 by aligulac in his match against revival.

I think it's pretty fair. I'd heavily favor Naniwa against Revival. But then maybe I should increase his chances to win the challenger league group even though we don't know who he'll be facing lol.

edit:use the poll below please
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Facultyadjutant
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Sweden1876 Posts
October 27 2013 20:34 GMT
#1403
Shoooo trap, shooo

my storylines need to be preserved ;__;
#1 FAN OF TERRY THE INTERN - NONY AND IDRA NUMBER #1, EVERY DAY. AXIOM MANOR - Axiom: Ryung, Alicia, Heart and Crank under the Don TotalBiscuit and the Donnesa Genna Bain- Join the family http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=396090#2
Stoffelhase
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany162 Posts
October 27 2013 20:34 GMT
#1404
the other player actually have no goal at all to train for this.. not sure if they would even all participate if it wasnt very unfair for naniwa then.. but revival, training like a boss, will be heavily favored against anyone.. voted 80%
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17738 Posts
October 27 2013 20:37 GMT
#1405
On October 28 2013 05:34 Stoffelhase wrote:
the other player actually have no goal at all to train for this.. not sure if they would even all participate if it wasnt very unfair for naniwa then.. but revival, training like a boss, will be heavily favored against anyone.. voted 80%

haha true....
ok new poll....

Poll: What should Revival's chances for top 2 in his group be?

90% (17)
 
50%

70% (13)
 
38%

80% (4)
 
12%

34 total votes

Your vote: What should Revival's chances for top 2 in his group be?

(Vote): 90%
(Vote): 80%
(Vote): 70%

"Expert" mods4ever.com
NoGasfOu
Profile Joined April 2012
United States1117 Posts
October 27 2013 21:09 GMT
#1406
There's no way Naniwa can stand a chance against Revival. Naniwa gets sent to more tournaments to get extra points, plus playing in the easiest region with the least Koreans but still having trouble getting through. That's disappointing as a player. So much opportunities but unable to capitalize.
Tassadar/TheBest/Jjakji/Rain(terran)/Heart
9-BiT
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
United States1089 Posts
October 27 2013 21:11 GMT
#1407
On October 28 2013 06:09 NoGasfOu wrote:
There's no way Naniwa can stand a chance against Revival. Naniwa gets sent to more tournaments to get extra points, plus playing in the easiest region with the least Koreans but still having trouble getting through. That's disappointing as a player. So much opportunities but unable to capitalize.

So beating hyun and throwing life is disappointing?
kwark_uk: @father_sc learn to play maybe?
5c0rp10n
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany342 Posts
October 27 2013 21:12 GMT
#1408
On October 28 2013 06:09 NoGasfOu wrote:
There's no way Naniwa can stand a chance against Revival. Naniwa gets sent to more tournaments to get extra points, plus playing in the easiest region with the least Koreans but still having trouble getting through. That's disappointing as a player. So much opportunities but unable to capitalize.

Thats just not true. Sorry.
| NaNiwa | CJ`herO |
FiWiFaKi
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada9859 Posts
October 27 2013 21:12 GMT
#1409
The blizzard employee said that it would be determined by more points in regular season, and then my coin-toss. Why do people say it will be a Bo5 at Blizzcon? Where was that posted?
In life, the journey is more satisfying than the destination. || .::Entrepreneurship::. Living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't || Mechanical Engineering & Economics Major
Nine Gates
Profile Joined November 2012
Finland198 Posts
October 27 2013 21:15 GMT
#1410
On October 28 2013 06:12 FiWiFaKi wrote:
The blizzard employee said that it would be determined by more points in regular season, and then my coin-toss. Why do people say it will be a Bo5 at Blizzcon? Where was that posted?
http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/articles/wcs-global-finals-format-seeding-and-tiebreakers
1112345678999
5c0rp10n
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany342 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 21:15:36
October 27 2013 21:15 GMT
#1411
On October 28 2013 06:12 FiWiFaKi wrote:
The blizzard employee said that it would be determined by more points in regular season, and then my coin-toss. Why do people say it will be a Bo5 at Blizzcon? Where was that posted?

http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/articles/wcs-global-finals-format-seeding-and-tiebreakers

Edit: Too slow.
| NaNiwa | CJ`herO |
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 21:15 GMT
#1412
On October 28 2013 06:12 FiWiFaKi wrote:
The blizzard employee said that it would be determined by more points in regular season, and then my coin-toss. Why do people say it will be a Bo5 at Blizzcon? Where was that posted?

In the same place it said it would be decided by a Bo5 at BlizzCon if there's a tie for 16th place, no matter who has more points from WCS, tier 1 events, etc.
FiWiFaKi
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada9859 Posts
October 27 2013 21:18 GMT
#1413
On October 28 2013 06:15 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 06:12 FiWiFaKi wrote:
The blizzard employee said that it would be determined by more points in regular season, and then my coin-toss. Why do people say it will be a Bo5 at Blizzcon? Where was that posted?

In the same place it said it would be decided by a Bo5 at BlizzCon if there's a tie for 16th place, no matter who has more points from WCS, tier 1 events, etc.


Wow I feel stupid. I see, they meant coin toss between players in the Top16. Thanks, clears it up for me.
In life, the journey is more satisfying than the destination. || .::Entrepreneurship::. Living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't || Mechanical Engineering & Economics Major
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 27 2013 21:23 GMT
#1414
We can actually seriously start looking at possible Blizzcon seeding now that there are so few games left:

Innovation-1(maru doesnt win & soulkey gets 3/4), 2(maru wins or soulkey gets top2), 3(Maru wins, soulkey gets 2nd)
Soulkey----1(soulkey gets top2), 2(soulkey gets 3/4 & maru doesnt win), 3(soulkey gets 3/4 & maru wins)
Jaedong----3 (maru doesnt win), 4 (maru wins)
Polt----------4 (maru doesnt win), 5 (maru wins)
HerO--------5 (maru doesnt get top2), 6 (maru gets top2)
Maru--------1(maru wins & soulkey gets 3/4), 2(maru wins & soulkey gets 2nd), 5(maru gets 2nd), 6(maru gets 3/4, Dear doesnt ----------------win), 7(maru gets 3/4 & Dear wins)
Bomber-----7 (Dear doesnt win), 8 (Dear wins)
MMA--------8 (Dear doesnt win), 9 (Dear wins)
MC-----------9 (Dear doesnt win), 10 (Dear wins)
Taeja--------10 (Dear doesnt win), 11 (Dear wins)
sOs----------11 (Dear doesnt win & Trap doesnt win), 12 (Dear wins or Trap wins)
Mvp----------12 (Dear gets 3/4 & Trap doesnt win), 13 (Dear gets top2 or Trap wins), 14 (Dear gets top2 and Trap wins)
Alive---------13 (Dear gets 3/4 & Trap doesnt win), 14 (Dear gets top2 or Trap wins), 15 (Dear gets top2 and Trap wins)
duckdeok--14 (Dear gets 3/4 & Trap doesnt win), 15 (Dear gets top2 or Trap wins), 16 (Dear gets top2 and Trap wins)
Dear----------6(Dear wins), 12(Dear gets 2nd & Trap doesnt win), 13(Dear gets 2nd & Trap wins), 15(Dear gets 3/4 & Trap doesnt -----------------win), 16(Dear gets 3/4 & Trap wins)
Naniwa------16 (Trap doesnt win & either [Revival 3/4 challenger group or Naniwa beats Revival in showmatch)
Revival-------16 (Trap doesnt win & Revival 1st/2nd challenger group & Revival beats Naniwa in showmatch)
Trap-----------12 (Trap wins)
Think i got everything, tell me if something is off.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 21:27:37
October 27 2013 21:25 GMT
#1415
On October 28 2013 06:23 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
We can actually seriously start looking at possible Blizzcon seeding now that there are so few games left:

Innovation-1(maru doesnt win & soulkey gets 3/4), 2(maru wins or soulkey gets top2), 3(Maru wins, soulkey gets 2nd)
Soulkey----1(soulkey gets top2), 2(soulkey gets 3/4 & maru doesnt win), 3(soulkey gets 3/4 & maru wins)
Jaedong----3 (maru doesnt win), 4 (maru wins)
Polt----------4 (maru doesnt win), 5 (maru wins)
HerO--------5 (maru doesnt get top2), 6 (maru gets top2)
Maru--------1(maru wins & soulkey gets 3/4), 2(maru wins & soulkey gets 2nd), 5(maru gets 2nd), 6(maru gets 3/4, Dear doesnt ----------------win), 7(maru gets 3/4 & Dear wins)
Bomber-----7 (Dear doesnt win), 8 (Dear wins)
MMA--------8 (Dear doesnt win), 9 (Dear wins)
MC-----------9 (Dear doesnt win), 10 (Dear wins)
Taeja--------10 (Dear doesnt win), 11 (Dear wins)
sOs----------11 (Dear doesnt win & Trap doesnt win), 12 (Dear wins or Trap wins)
Mvp----------12 (Dear gets 3/4 & Trap doesnt win), 13 (Dear gets top2 or Trap wins), 14 (Dear gets top2 and Trap wins)
Alive---------13 (Dear gets 3/4 & Trap doesnt win), 14 (Dear gets top2 or Trap wins), 15 (Dear gets top2 and Trap wins)
duckdeok--14 (Dear gets 3/4 & Trap doesnt win), 15 (Dear gets top2 or Trap wins), 16 (Dear gets top2 and Trap wins)
Dear----------6(Dear wins), 12(Dear gets 2nd & Trap doesnt win), 13(Dear gets 2nd & Trap wins), 15(Dear gets 3/4 & Trap doesnt -----------------win), 16(Dear gets 3/4 & Trap wins)
Naniwa------16 (Trap doesnt win & either [Revival 3/4 challenger group or Naniwa beats Revival in showmatch)
Revival-------16 (Trap doesnt win & Revival 1st/2nd challenger group & Revival beats Naniwa in showmatch)
Trap-----------12 (Trap wins)
Think i got everything, tell me if something is off.

There's literally a BlizzCon bracket in at the bottom of the OP of the day 3 lr thread. lol

Also this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=433531&currentpage=73#1453
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States599 Posts
October 27 2013 21:29 GMT
#1416
On October 28 2013 06:25 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 06:23 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
We can actually seriously start looking at possible Blizzcon seeding now that there are so few games left:

Innovation-1(maru doesnt win & soulkey gets 3/4), 2(maru wins or soulkey gets top2), 3(Maru wins, soulkey gets 2nd)
Soulkey----1(soulkey gets top2), 2(soulkey gets 3/4 & maru doesnt win), 3(soulkey gets 3/4 & maru wins)
Jaedong----3 (maru doesnt win), 4 (maru wins)
Polt----------4 (maru doesnt win), 5 (maru wins)
HerO--------5 (maru doesnt get top2), 6 (maru gets top2)
Maru--------1(maru wins & soulkey gets 3/4), 2(maru wins & soulkey gets 2nd), 5(maru gets 2nd), 6(maru gets 3/4, Dear doesnt ----------------win), 7(maru gets 3/4 & Dear wins)
Bomber-----7 (Dear doesnt win), 8 (Dear wins)
MMA--------8 (Dear doesnt win), 9 (Dear wins)
MC-----------9 (Dear doesnt win), 10 (Dear wins)
Taeja--------10 (Dear doesnt win), 11 (Dear wins)
sOs----------11 (Dear doesnt win & Trap doesnt win), 12 (Dear wins or Trap wins)
Mvp----------12 (Dear gets 3/4 & Trap doesnt win), 13 (Dear gets top2 or Trap wins), 14 (Dear gets top2 and Trap wins)
Alive---------13 (Dear gets 3/4 & Trap doesnt win), 14 (Dear gets top2 or Trap wins), 15 (Dear gets top2 and Trap wins)
duckdeok--14 (Dear gets 3/4 & Trap doesnt win), 15 (Dear gets top2 or Trap wins), 16 (Dear gets top2 and Trap wins)
Dear----------6(Dear wins), 12(Dear gets 2nd & Trap doesnt win), 13(Dear gets 2nd & Trap wins), 15(Dear gets 3/4 & Trap doesnt -----------------win), 16(Dear gets 3/4 & Trap wins)
Naniwa------16 (Trap doesnt win & either [Revival 3/4 challenger group or Naniwa beats Revival in showmatch)
Revival-------16 (Trap doesnt win & Revival 1st/2nd challenger group & Revival beats Naniwa in showmatch)
Trap-----------12 (Trap wins)
Think i got everything, tell me if something is off.

There's literally a BlizzCon bracket in at the bottom of the OP of the day 3 lr thread. lol

Also this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=433531&currentpage=73#1453

lol whups
oh well XD
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
ZeromuS
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Canada13408 Posts
October 27 2013 21:57 GMT
#1417
The op doesn't mention what happens if dear comes first. What happens then?
StrategyRTS forever | @ZeromuS_plays | www.twitch.tv/Zeromus_
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 21:58 GMT
#1418
On October 28 2013 06:57 ZeromuS wrote:
The op doesn't mention what happens if dear comes first. What happens then?

The same thing that happens if Maru comes first.
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 27 2013 21:58 GMT
#1419
nothing to Naniwa but Dear just moves up in seeding for Blizzcon
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
ZeromuS
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Canada13408 Posts
October 27 2013 22:00 GMT
#1420
OK guys so tell me the % to use on our nani flag signs here at wcs
StrategyRTS forever | @ZeromuS_plays | www.twitch.tv/Zeromus_
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