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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 69

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 67 68 69 70 71 78 Next
Iceman331
Profile Joined April 2010
United States1306 Posts
October 27 2013 18:12 GMT
#1361
Methinks Naniwa is going to be buying Soulkey a beer at Blizzcon. Soulkey continues to impress.
Stoffelhase
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany162 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 18:18:27
October 27 2013 18:16 GMT
#1362
need an update :D:D:D please
oz out!

On October 28 2013 03:12 Iceman331 wrote:
Methinks Naniwa is going to be buying Soulkey a beer at Blizzcon. Soulkey continues to impress.

well, if soulkey wins this tournament, he will play naniwa (if naniwa qualifies)
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
October 27 2013 18:18 GMT
#1363
updated with results of Soulkey vs Oz
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Stoffelhase
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany162 Posts
October 27 2013 18:18 GMT
#1364
love you, thanks
Juisson
Profile Joined August 2011
Finland52 Posts
October 27 2013 18:22 GMT
#1365
I saw the swedish flags and the 60.7% in the crowd and had to come check if this is already updated for oz vs soulkey and it was :D
Mvp | GuMiho | Leenock | HerO | TaeJa | Seed --- FXO | IM | Liquid fighting!
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12161 Posts
October 27 2013 18:24 GMT
#1366
Really hoping for a Dear Soulkey finals
No will to live, no wish to die
isaachukfan
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
Canada785 Posts
October 27 2013 18:34 GMT
#1367
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if Revival gets 1st place in his Challenger league group, he will be tied with Naniwa on points right?
I'm a mennonite, yes I'm allowed to use a computer
ThePlagueJG
Profile Joined May 2013
Sweden1010 Posts
October 27 2013 18:35 GMT
#1368
On October 28 2013 03:34 isaachukfan wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if Revival gets 1st place in his Challenger league group, he will be tied with Naniwa on points right?


Yes if he get 1st or second, and if he do they will play a Bo5 tiebreaker in BlizzCon for the BlizzCon spot.
ThorZaIN | NaNiwa | SaSe | PartinG | sOs | Jaedong | sOs restored passion!
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 18:35 GMT
#1369
On October 28 2013 03:34 isaachukfan wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if Revival gets 1st place in his Challenger league group, he will be tied with Naniwa on points right?

For the at least hundredth time in this thread, why yes he will. He will also tie if he gets 2nd place in his Challenger League group.
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18394 Posts
October 27 2013 18:38 GMT
#1370
17. Revival, 1011061/5000000, minimum 3175 points, needs at least 3201 points, 20.2212%


Why does Revival need 3201 points and Naniwa only 3200?
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
October 27 2013 18:40 GMT
#1371
On October 28 2013 03:38 sharkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
17. Revival, 1011061/5000000, minimum 3175 points, needs at least 3201 points, 20.2212%


Why does Revival need 3201 points and Naniwa only 3200?

haha, it's the way I programmed it to handle the tie breaker. I just gave Revival a 50% chance to get 24 points if he wins the group or 26 points. It was much simpler to program that way.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 18:40:58
October 27 2013 18:40 GMT
#1372
On October 28 2013 03:38 sharkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
17. Revival, 1011061/5000000, minimum 3175 points, needs at least 3201 points, 20.2212%


Why does Revival need 3201 points and Naniwa only 3200?

Because his program doesn't like Challenger League simulations so Revival gets a free 26 points 25% of the time and 24 points 25% of the time, and 0 points 50% of the time.

Or that^
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18394 Posts
October 27 2013 18:43 GMT
#1373
On October 28 2013 03:40 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 03:38 sharkie wrote:
17. Revival, 1011061/5000000, minimum 3175 points, needs at least 3201 points, 20.2212%


Why does Revival need 3201 points and Naniwa only 3200?

haha, it's the way I programmed it to handle the tie breaker. I just gave Revival a 50% chance to get 24 points if he wins the group or 26 points. It was much simpler to program that way.


Thanks for clarifying! Very fast response, wow
isaachukfan
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
Canada785 Posts
October 27 2013 18:43 GMT
#1374
On October 28 2013 03:40 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 03:38 sharkie wrote:
17. Revival, 1011061/5000000, minimum 3175 points, needs at least 3201 points, 20.2212%


Why does Revival need 3201 points and Naniwa only 3200?

haha, it's the way I programmed it to handle the tie breaker. I just gave Revival a 50% chance to get 24 points if he wins the group or 26 points. It was much simpler to program that way.


Oh, so It's programmed to handle the tiebreaker...ok that makes it much more simple, thanks!
I'm a mennonite, yes I'm allowed to use a computer
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
October 27 2013 18:46 GMT
#1375
On October 28 2013 03:43 sharkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 03:40 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 28 2013 03:38 sharkie wrote:
17. Revival, 1011061/5000000, minimum 3175 points, needs at least 3201 points, 20.2212%


Why does Revival need 3201 points and Naniwa only 3200?

haha, it's the way I programmed it to handle the tie breaker. I just gave Revival a 50% chance to get 24 points if he wins the group or 26 points. It was much simpler to program that way.


Thanks for clarifying! Very fast response, wow

You reminded me to change the tie breaker from a 50/50 to an actual match prediction. So Naniwa's chances should go up a little in the next update. But then again without the challenger league groups I still have Revival at 50% to get top 2 in his group, and he probably will have a better chance than that.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
elanobissen
Profile Joined February 2011
Denmark244 Posts
October 27 2013 18:47 GMT
#1376
Who do I root for now? :D Dear vs Byul
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
October 27 2013 18:48 GMT
#1377
On October 28 2013 03:47 elanobissen wrote:
Who do I root for now? :D Dear vs Byul

Naniwa fans are rooting for Dear, Maru, and Soulkey. Naniwa haters are cheering for Byul, Trap, and Revival.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
lolfail9001
Profile Joined August 2013
Russian Federation40190 Posts
October 27 2013 18:55 GMT
#1378
On October 28 2013 03:48 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 03:47 elanobissen wrote:
Who do I root for now? :D Dear vs Byul

Naniwa fans are rooting for Dear, Maru, and Soulkey. Naniwa haters are cheering for Byul, Trap, and Revival.

So i think i am cheering for Dear, Maru, Soulkey and Revival then. ByuL makes Ro4, loses in close series to Soulkey and Soulkey stomps Maru in finals. Sounds about right.
DeMoN pulls off a Miracle and Flies to the Moon
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
October 27 2013 19:00 GMT
#1379
Also Revival fans are cheering for Dear, Maru, Soulkey, but I'm not sure I've ever seen a Revival fan lol.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
LOGMATHR
Profile Joined April 2013
30 Posts
October 27 2013 19:02 GMT
#1380
So as long as the winner between Trap/Byul doesnt win the whole thing, naniwa is safe? But he might have to play Revival for a spot at blizzcon?
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