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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 67

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 65 66 67 68 69 78 Next
vthree
Profile Joined November 2011
Hong Kong8039 Posts
October 27 2013 12:15 GMT
#1321
On October 27 2013 20:45 Aunvilgod wrote:
The problem is that you cannot have a true World Finals at this time. The distribution of skill is way too concentrated to Korea. Blizzard cannot make the WCS Grand Finals the most important tournament. They HAVE to give this status to the GSL & OSL. WCS Grand Finals should be the new WCG where everybody gets together and has a fun time. Maybe they can make it look like it is the most competitive tournament so more casuals tune in but the way it is currently the viewer numbers will be bad.


You mean they should just go back to the old Blizzcon (ie 2011)
Dingodile
Profile Joined December 2011
4139 Posts
October 27 2013 12:24 GMT
#1322
On October 27 2013 21:15 vthree wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 20:45 Aunvilgod wrote:
The problem is that you cannot have a true World Finals at this time. The distribution of skill is way too concentrated to Korea. Blizzard cannot make the WCS Grand Finals the most important tournament. They HAVE to give this status to the GSL & OSL. WCS Grand Finals should be the new WCG where everybody gets together and has a fun time. Maybe they can make it look like it is the most competitive tournament so more casuals tune in but the way it is currently the viewer numbers will be bad.


You mean they should just go back to the old Blizzcon (ie 2011)

GSL did an excellent job last two years, they invite every tournament-winner at end of the year. WCS is killing this.
Grubby | ToD | Moon | Lyn | Sky
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 12:26 GMT
#1323
On October 27 2013 21:15 Bogeyman wrote:
You've got to be a serious hater of Naniwa to prefer an all-korean Blizzcon.

I don't have much hope, but please Soulkey... please. o__o
And Revival, Naniwa is practically your teammate. Go roll around in snow naked for an hour or something. Do it for the team!

If you've been watching Revival's stream the past few days, 80% of what he types in chat is "I want to go to BlizzCon!~"

Plus if Soulkey makes the finals (or ByuL/Trap lose in the finals) NaNiwa is playing at BlizzCon even if Revival ties with him because the tiebreaker for 16th place is a bo5 held at BlizzCon... lol
vthree
Profile Joined November 2011
Hong Kong8039 Posts
October 27 2013 12:27 GMT
#1324
On October 27 2013 21:24 Dingodile wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 21:15 vthree wrote:
On October 27 2013 20:45 Aunvilgod wrote:
The problem is that you cannot have a true World Finals at this time. The distribution of skill is way too concentrated to Korea. Blizzard cannot make the WCS Grand Finals the most important tournament. They HAVE to give this status to the GSL & OSL. WCS Grand Finals should be the new WCG where everybody gets together and has a fun time. Maybe they can make it look like it is the most competitive tournament so more casuals tune in but the way it is currently the viewer numbers will be bad.


You mean they should just go back to the old Blizzcon (ie 2011)

GSL did an excellent job last two years, they invite every tournament-winner at end of the year. WCS is killing this.


Well, Blizzard Cup was pretty much all Korean except Stephano and Naniwa.
Bertholdz
Profile Joined July 2013
23 Posts
October 27 2013 12:28 GMT
#1325
On October 27 2013 21:14 BaneRiders wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 20:52 Bertholdz wrote:
On October 27 2013 20:37 coverpunch wrote:
On October 27 2013 20:21 Bertholdz wrote:
On October 27 2013 20:02 coverpunch wrote:
On October 27 2013 19:38 Bertholdz wrote:
On October 27 2013 19:23 coverpunch wrote:
What kind of threat is that? You basically won't watch unless Naniwa is winning. Even if Naniwa got in to Blizzcon, if he loses in the first round, you'll still stop watching and go back to writing "WCS is dead, too many Koreans" complaints.

I think this season 3 finals is exciting because spots #15 and 16 are still up for grabs. The remaining uncertainty is better than if it was guaranteed that Naniwa was in, right?



What im actually saying is one foreigner at Blizzcon is the injection WCS desperately needs. (W as in WORLD, not South Korea). And if that doesnt become the case, there will in retrospect be nothing this season that has legitimized the new system. And that i sad.

A bit dramatic, don't you think?

Looking at "legitimacy" only by the nationality of the players is amazingly short-sighted. You don't want to consider player races, playing styles, results, or metagame at all, huh?



Of course I do consider those aspects. But in fact compared to Dreamhacks and IEMS etc. the WCS must provide something that makes it the highlight. If the football world cup for example were the least interesting football scen because of Brazil A, B and C competing with Germany A, B and so on it would loose its reason to exist.

Many people like to play that national states are dead the community is global-card, but we primitive people that just gets much of the excitement from playing the silly game of national support have to be involved otherwise Wcs will never get 200 K viewers.

But you are aware that the World Cup weights regional representation by their relative strength, yes? That's why Europe gets 13 representatives but Asia, despite having 10x the population, only gets 5.


Yes thats exactly my point. 13 to 5 may seem unbalanced but it might be fair atm. 16 to 0 though is a point from which you struggle uphill a mt Everest, however fait it may be.



Indeed, guaranteeing participation from Asia, Africa and so on was a clever move that contributes to the high interest in the World Cup and in football at large, both for fans and future players I'm sure. Everyone dreams of seeing their team making an upset and it happens quite often too. It would be very unfortunate if Africa, Asia and North America would have to qualify against European and South American teams.

The difference between a final with foreigner participation and one without is that it is the end of it for many foreigner fans if we have a full Korean final. It is not the end of it for SC2 or anything like that, but it is simply not interesting enough for many people to watch all Korean matches to find out who the best Korean is in one competition, be it the grand final or some other competition. That means a full Korean final will reduce the number of viewers amongst those to whom it does matter if there is a foreigner participating. Those who don't care about where the participants come from but want to see the best will always be happy so no problem there.

I'm one of those who really need foreigner participation in a tournament to give a shit. It is not a threat or anything, it is how it is. Luckily for me there is DH winter, Homestory cup, another round of Red Bull battle Grounds and Fragbite Masters with both foreigner and Korean participation to look forward to, including players I root for, so I'm not going to get starved to death before the next year is here, hopefully with an improved WCS system in place!

One evidence of the importance of foreigner participation can be seen in this very thread. Just consider how much interest there is in this solely due to Naniwa still having a chance, although I have to admit the probability of Naniwa making it looks smaller than the percentage given right now.


Yes many good points, and I certainly look forward to those tournaments you mention too, because I look at it the same way.
Im a bit sad though if Naniwa goes out cuz this thread has been so fun and I would like this tention to stretch at least onto Blizzcon, not end tonight in a pale feeling of Blizzcon feeling lame and Dreamhack Winter and HSC being the highlight.
Because that was not my hopes for the new Wcssystem.
Jerom
Profile Joined April 2011
Netherlands588 Posts
October 27 2013 12:29 GMT
#1326
On October 27 2013 21:15 Bogeyman wrote:
You've got to be a serious hater of Naniwa to prefer an all-korean Blizzcon.

I don't have much hope, but please Soulkey... please. o__o
And Revival, Naniwa is practically your teammate. Go roll around in snow naked for an hour or something. Do it for the team!

It's not that special to be a serious hater of Naniwa though.
Aunvilgod
Profile Joined December 2011
2653 Posts
October 27 2013 12:31 GMT
#1327
On October 27 2013 21:15 vthree wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 20:45 Aunvilgod wrote:
The problem is that you cannot have a true World Finals at this time. The distribution of skill is way too concentrated to Korea. Blizzard cannot make the WCS Grand Finals the most important tournament. They HAVE to give this status to the GSL & OSL. WCS Grand Finals should be the new WCG where everybody gets together and has a fun time. Maybe they can make it look like it is the most competitive tournament so more casuals tune in but the way it is currently the viewer numbers will be bad.


You mean they should just go back to the old Blizzcon (ie 2011)


Not really. Just introduce region locking and decrease the amount of points earned at the Season Finals.

I think the ideal Grand Finals would be ~4 foreigners and the ~12 most skilled Koreans.
ilovegroov | Blizzards mapmaker(s?) suck ass | #1 Protoss hater
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 12:42 GMT
#1328
On October 27 2013 21:31 Aunvilgod wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 21:15 vthree wrote:
On October 27 2013 20:45 Aunvilgod wrote:
The problem is that you cannot have a true World Finals at this time. The distribution of skill is way too concentrated to Korea. Blizzard cannot make the WCS Grand Finals the most important tournament. They HAVE to give this status to the GSL & OSL. WCS Grand Finals should be the new WCG where everybody gets together and has a fun time. Maybe they can make it look like it is the most competitive tournament so more casuals tune in but the way it is currently the viewer numbers will be bad.


You mean they should just go back to the old Blizzcon (ie 2011)


Not really. Just introduce region locking and decrease the amount of points earned at the Season Finals.

I think the ideal Grand Finals would be ~4 foreigners and the ~12 most skilled Koreans.

The season finals are done after today. It was already announced season finals aren't happening next year.
Aunvilgod
Profile Joined December 2011
2653 Posts
October 27 2013 12:48 GMT
#1329
On October 27 2013 21:42 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 21:31 Aunvilgod wrote:
On October 27 2013 21:15 vthree wrote:
On October 27 2013 20:45 Aunvilgod wrote:
The problem is that you cannot have a true World Finals at this time. The distribution of skill is way too concentrated to Korea. Blizzard cannot make the WCS Grand Finals the most important tournament. They HAVE to give this status to the GSL & OSL. WCS Grand Finals should be the new WCG where everybody gets together and has a fun time. Maybe they can make it look like it is the most competitive tournament so more casuals tune in but the way it is currently the viewer numbers will be bad.


You mean they should just go back to the old Blizzcon (ie 2011)


Not really. Just introduce region locking and decrease the amount of points earned at the Season Finals.

I think the ideal Grand Finals would be ~4 foreigners and the ~12 most skilled Koreans.

The season finals are done after today. It was already announced season finals aren't happening next year.


Yeah but I'm talking about what I think would be the ideal system.
ilovegroov | Blizzards mapmaker(s?) suck ass | #1 Protoss hater
Skelitore
Profile Joined October 2013
United Kingdom2 Posts
October 27 2013 12:54 GMT
#1330
I don't like Naniwa much but if he doesn't make it it will be a bit of a disaster IMO. The reality is far less people will bother watching
teddyoojo
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
Germany22369 Posts
October 27 2013 13:00 GMT
#1331
so when oz beats soulkey its all over?
or if byul wins finals?
Esports historian since 2000. Creator of 'The Universe' and 'The best scrambled Eggs 2013'. Host of 'Star Wars Marathon 2015'. Thinker of 'teddyoojo's Thoughts'. Earths and Moons leading CS:GO expert. Lord of the Rings.
Markwerf
Profile Joined March 2010
Netherlands3728 Posts
October 27 2013 13:01 GMT
#1332
Hmm Naniwa's chances not that hot anymore, let's just hope soulkey wins. Not so much because I like naniwa or dislike Oz but 1 foreigner does at least bring a little flavor even if he ends up getting stomped by innovation.
Dear in the meantime getting to 15th place is great, would be a shame if the latest WCS KR winner didn't make it. Going up against Jaedong is even a nice matchup for him (I think JD will be one of the weaker players at the finals).
coverpunch
Profile Joined December 2011
United States2093 Posts
October 27 2013 13:05 GMT
#1333
On October 27 2013 22:00 teddyoojo wrote:
so when oz beats soulkey its all over?
or if byul wins finals?

Scenarios are thus:

Oz beats Soulkey - Naniwa out.

Trap/Byul wins the whole thing - Naniwa out.

Oz beats Soulkey AND Trap/Byul wins the whole thing - Dear out.

Neither happens - Revival becomes foreigner enemy #1.
Nine Gates
Profile Joined November 2012
Finland198 Posts
October 27 2013 13:11 GMT
#1334
On October 27 2013 22:05 coverpunch wrote:
Neither happens - Revival becomes foreigner enemy #1.
I don't quite get this. Even if Revival get his 25 points, Naniwa will still get to go to Blizzcon and play a Bo5 against a Korean. Maybe it will even be broadcasted. Beating Revival will certainly build more hype than just facing a top Korean in the first round and losing. And most importantly, Naniwa controls his own fate at that point.
1112345678999
Bogeyman
Profile Joined May 2010
Sweden307 Posts
October 27 2013 13:34 GMT
#1335
On October 27 2013 21:29 Jerom wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 21:15 Bogeyman wrote:
You've got to be a serious hater of Naniwa to prefer an all-korean Blizzcon.

I don't have much hope, but please Soulkey... please. o__o
And Revival, Naniwa is practically your teammate. Go roll around in snow naked for an hour or something. Do it for the team!

It's not that special to be a serious hater of Naniwa though.

That's certainly true. But my girlfriend hates him, and has for a long time, but even she would rather see him at Blizzcon than it be completely devoid of foreigners. She is pretty upset at the whole WCS system though, wants it to be region locked etc, and she's a bit mad at how things have turned out.
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 14:14 GMT
#1336
On October 27 2013 22:05 coverpunch wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 22:00 teddyoojo wrote:
so when oz beats soulkey its all over?
or if byul wins finals?

Scenarios are thus:

Oz beats Soulkey - Naniwa out.

Trap/Byul wins the whole thing - Naniwa out.

Oz beats Soulkey AND Trap/Byul wins the whole thing against Maru in the finals- Dear out.

Neither happens - Revival becomes foreigner enemy #1.

Fixed that part for you. If Dear makes finals he's 100% in.
coverpunch
Profile Joined December 2011
United States2093 Posts
October 27 2013 14:18 GMT
#1337
On October 27 2013 22:11 Nine Gates wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 22:05 coverpunch wrote:
Neither happens - Revival becomes foreigner enemy #1.
I don't quite get this. Even if Revival get his 25 points, Naniwa will still get to go to Blizzcon and play a Bo5 against a Korean. Maybe it will even be broadcasted. Beating Revival will certainly build more hype than just facing a top Korean in the first round and losing. And most importantly, Naniwa controls his own fate at that point.

Don't ask questions, just bring your pitchfork and torch.
HolydaKing
Profile Joined February 2010
21254 Posts
October 27 2013 14:26 GMT
#1338
On October 27 2013 21:54 Skelitore wrote:
I don't like Naniwa much but if he doesn't make it it will be a bit of a disaster IMO. The reality is far less people will bother watching

Well, tbh most people will watch Blizzcon anyway just because it's Blizzcon (even if they say they won't). I think it would be less viewers if Revival would beat Naniwa in a tiebreaker, since I can imagine a lot of people really turning it off since they're mad.
Saryph
Profile Joined April 2010
United States1955 Posts
October 27 2013 14:36 GMT
#1339
Europeans/Naniwa fans cheered when Scarlett, the last NA player, got knocked out. Sort of hope Naniwa falls today.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
October 27 2013 15:15 GMT
#1340
On October 27 2013 23:36 Saryph wrote:
Europeans/Naniwa fans cheered when Scarlett, the last NA player, got knocked out. Sort of hope Naniwa falls today.


Really? That seems strange to me, I cannot see why a european would not want scarlet at blizzcon. As this thread has shown, we all want a token foreigner to get through.
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