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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 66

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
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Bertholdz
Profile Joined July 2013
23 Posts
October 27 2013 10:41 GMT
#1301
On October 27 2013 19:35 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 19:26 coverpunch wrote:
I hope we see the hilarity of Byul or Trap in the finals so that Dear goes from Naniwa 's worst enemy to Naniwa's best friend.

Nah, you hope Oz wins against Soulkey so you can watch the hilarity that will be the hundreds of temp-bans to the NaNiwa fans in the LR thread a hour into the broadcast.


Haha spot on! The righteous side of this is just as poisonous as the other.
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
October 27 2013 10:43 GMT
#1302
On October 27 2013 19:35 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 19:26 coverpunch wrote:
I hope we see the hilarity of Byul or Trap in the finals so that Dear goes from Naniwa 's worst enemy to Naniwa's best friend.

Nah, you hope Oz wins against Soulkey so you can watch the hilarity that will be the hundreds of temp-bans to the NaNiwa fans in the LR thread a hour into the broadcast.


Simply put: almost anything that happens will be hilarious. That's how I like it
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
TL+ Member
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18525 Posts
October 27 2013 10:45 GMT
#1303
On October 27 2013 19:35 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 19:26 coverpunch wrote:
I hope we see the hilarity of Byul or Trap in the finals so that Dear goes from Naniwa 's worst enemy to Naniwa's best friend.

Nah, you hope Oz wins against Soulkey so you can watch the hilarity that will be the hundreds of temp-bans to the NaNiwa fans in the LR thread a hour into the broadcast.


It's not only Naniwa fans who would be upset...
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-27 10:50:03
October 27 2013 10:47 GMT
#1304
On October 27 2013 19:45 sharkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 19:35 Elite_ wrote:
On October 27 2013 19:26 coverpunch wrote:
I hope we see the hilarity of Byul or Trap in the finals so that Dear goes from Naniwa 's worst enemy to Naniwa's best friend.

Nah, you hope Oz wins against Soulkey so you can watch the hilarity that will be the hundreds of temp-bans to the NaNiwa fans in the LR thread a hour into the broadcast.


It's not only Naniwa fans who would be upset...

I know, but they'll be the ones with the majority of the complaints.

On October 27 2013 16:29 Elite_ wrote:
Here's every BlizzCon bracket possibility with the remaining matches in the tournament, all assuming Revival wins his challenger group. If Revival doesn't advance to premier from challenger, you can change every Revival/NaNiwa to NaNiwa.

In some cases, Oz will tie with sOs, as both made the same number of points from WCS and the same number of points from tier 1 foreign events, their seeds will be determined via coinflip. If they do tie, the coinflip will be some time soon™.

+ Show Spoiler [All 32 possibilities] +

Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Oz > Trap, Maru > Oz
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Oz > Trap, Oz > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/wv7CNye.png


Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Trap > Oz, Maru > Trap
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/qV4qAVO.png


Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Trap > Oz, Trap > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/wMpPNfZ.png


Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, Oz > ByuL, Maru > Oz
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, Oz > ByuL, Oz > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/wv7CNye.png


Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, ByuL > Oz, Maru > ByuL
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/qV4qAVO.png


Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, ByuL > Oz, ByuL > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Soulkey > Trap, Maru > Soulkey
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/766GlMm.png


Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Soulkey > Trap, Soulkey > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/lsdMmEk.png


Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Trap > Soulkey, Maru > Trap
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/6FUkY6c.png


Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Trap > Soulkey, Trap > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/uU2e0QU.png


Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, Soulkey > ByuL, Maru > Soulkey
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/766GlMm.png


Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, Soulkey > ByuL, Soulkey > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/lsdMmEk.png


Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, ByuL > Soulkey, Maru > ByuL
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/6FUkY6c.png


Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, ByuL > Soulkey, ByuL > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/rC7422z.png


Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Oz > Trap, Dear > Oz
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/AB0y4CG.png


Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Oz > Trap, Oz > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/RnuIqrM.png


Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Trap > Oz, Dear > Trap
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/YyoodZ3.png


Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Trap > Oz, Trap > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/ukejIAH.png


Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, Oz > ByuL, Dear > Oz
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/AB0y4CG.png


Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, Oz > ByuL, Oz > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/RnuIqrM.png


Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, ByuL > Oz, Dear > ByuL
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/YyoodZ3.png


Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, ByuL > Oz, ByuL > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/wmYCPHg.png


Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Soulkey > Trap, Dear > Soulkey
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/ggMJ2Jc.png


Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Soulkey > Trap, Soulkey > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/mR0llM5.png


Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Trap > Soulkey, Dear > Trap
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/lokgX2t.png


Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Trap > Soulkey, Trap > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/QBSBqtX.png


Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, Soulkey > ByuL, Dear > Soulkey
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/ggMJ2Jc.png


Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, Soulkey > ByuL, Soulkey > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/mR0llM5.png


Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, ByuL > Soulkey, Dear > ByuL
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/lokgX2t.png


Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, ByuL > Soulkey, ByuL > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +
i.imgur.com/2ZumuYK.png

Also I'm quoting because I worked on this for like a hour and more people will notice if I put it on the current page.
00Visor
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
4337 Posts
October 27 2013 10:52 GMT
#1305
On October 27 2013 19:09 Bertholdz wrote:
This is not about Naniwafans. With Vortix showing that except Scarlett and Naniwa no foreigner can compete with the Koreans, and Naniwa being super-hyped after IEM, only Koreans in Blizzcon would be devastating. Basically a fourth time this year of pretty much the same Koreans in a tournament less dynamic than GSL and without any surprises (We know by now MC and MMA and are old elephants getting stomped by young hungry Koreans, and Jaedong apparently has peaked and lost the edge.

I think it may be the nail in the coffin for WCS, loosing many viewers for Blizzcon (I wont sit up all night for same thing as a month before), and any international drama. So we Naniwa-fans may be silly but you righteous We-will-see-the-best-players-which-are-the-Koreans-people kind of miss the point i Think.


I really hate when people say stuff like "Vortix showing he cannot compete with Koreans" because of two 1-2 losses in 1 tournament, when he has played tons of other matches.

Vortix is 24-19 in matches vs Koreans in HotS (http://www.aligulac.com/players/52/results/?after=&before=&race=ptzr&country=KR&bestof=all&offline=both&game=HotS&op=Filter).
Yes, many of them were "lesser" Koreans and online matches, but he can compete (online wins vs Stardust, Hyun, offline vs MC).
Doublemint
Profile Joined July 2011
Austria8645 Posts
October 27 2013 10:55 GMT
#1306
On October 27 2013 19:35 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 19:26 coverpunch wrote:
I hope we see the hilarity of Byul or Trap in the finals so that Dear goes from Naniwa 's worst enemy to Naniwa's best friend.

Nah, you hope Oz wins against Soulkey so you can watch the hilarity that will be the hundreds of temp-bans to the NaNiwa fans in the LR thread a hour into the broadcast.


Some people just want to watch the world burn.
in the age of "Person, Woman, Man, Camera, TV" leadership.
coverpunch
Profile Joined December 2011
United States2093 Posts
October 27 2013 11:02 GMT
#1307
On October 27 2013 19:38 Bertholdz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 19:23 coverpunch wrote:
What kind of threat is that? You basically won't watch unless Naniwa is winning. Even if Naniwa got in to Blizzcon, if he loses in the first round, you'll still stop watching and go back to writing "WCS is dead, too many Koreans" complaints.

I think this season 3 finals is exciting because spots #15 and 16 are still up for grabs. The remaining uncertainty is better than if it was guaranteed that Naniwa was in, right?



What im actually saying is one foreigner at Blizzcon is the injection WCS desperately needs. (W as in WORLD, not South Korea). And if that doesnt become the case, there will in retrospect be nothing this season that has legitimized the new system. And that i sad.

A bit dramatic, don't you think?

Looking at "legitimacy" only by the nationality of the players is amazingly short-sighted. You don't want to consider player races, playing styles, results, or metagame at all, huh?

opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
October 27 2013 11:04 GMT
#1308
naniwa being in the finals gives a significant number of fans a reason to tune in, which helps starcraft esports, if only a bit. for that reason alone, i'm rooting hard for naniwa to make it and do well at blizzcon.

like it or not, 'good' foreigners are very important for starcraft popularity.
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
coverpunch
Profile Joined December 2011
United States2093 Posts
October 27 2013 11:06 GMT
#1309
Important, yes. But not the end all be all. It certainly doesn't make the WCS system more or less legitimate because foreigners have done more poorly than the foreign community would like.
Bertholdz
Profile Joined July 2013
23 Posts
October 27 2013 11:12 GMT
#1310
On October 27 2013 20:04 opterown wrote:
naniwa being in the finals gives a significant number of fans a reason to tune in, which helps starcraft esports, if only a bit. for that reason alone, i'm rooting hard for naniwa to make it and do well at blizzcon.

like it or not, 'good' foreigners are very important for starcraft popularity.


Thank you.
Bertholdz
Profile Joined July 2013
23 Posts
October 27 2013 11:21 GMT
#1311
On October 27 2013 20:02 coverpunch wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 19:38 Bertholdz wrote:
On October 27 2013 19:23 coverpunch wrote:
What kind of threat is that? You basically won't watch unless Naniwa is winning. Even if Naniwa got in to Blizzcon, if he loses in the first round, you'll still stop watching and go back to writing "WCS is dead, too many Koreans" complaints.

I think this season 3 finals is exciting because spots #15 and 16 are still up for grabs. The remaining uncertainty is better than if it was guaranteed that Naniwa was in, right?



What im actually saying is one foreigner at Blizzcon is the injection WCS desperately needs. (W as in WORLD, not South Korea). And if that doesnt become the case, there will in retrospect be nothing this season that has legitimized the new system. And that i sad.

A bit dramatic, don't you think?

Looking at "legitimacy" only by the nationality of the players is amazingly short-sighted. You don't want to consider player races, playing styles, results, or metagame at all, huh?



Of course I do consider those aspects. But in fact compared to Dreamhacks and IEMS etc. the WCS must provide something that makes it the highlight. If the football world cup for example were the least interesting football scen because of Brazil A, B and C competing with Germany A, B and so on it would loose its reason to exist.

Many people like to play that national states are dead the community is global-card, but we primitive people that just gets much of the excitement from playing the silly game of national support have to be involved otherwise Wcs will never get 200 K viewers.
lolfail9001
Profile Joined August 2013
Russian Federation40190 Posts
October 27 2013 11:23 GMT
#1312
On October 27 2013 19:35 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 19:26 coverpunch wrote:
I hope we see the hilarity of Byul or Trap in the finals so that Dear goes from Naniwa 's worst enemy to Naniwa's best friend.

Nah, you hope Oz wins against Soulkey so you can watch the hilarity that will be the hundreds of temp-bans to the NaNiwa fans in the LR thread a hour into the broadcast.

Yes, yes, yes, please!
DeMoN pulls off a Miracle and Flies to the Moon
umade
Profile Joined September 2011
Sweden172 Posts
October 27 2013 11:31 GMT
#1313
Naniwa won't make it, and we will have the least watched grand finals EVER. Oh WCS, how I love thee.
Awesomeness
coverpunch
Profile Joined December 2011
United States2093 Posts
October 27 2013 11:37 GMT
#1314
On October 27 2013 20:21 Bertholdz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 20:02 coverpunch wrote:
On October 27 2013 19:38 Bertholdz wrote:
On October 27 2013 19:23 coverpunch wrote:
What kind of threat is that? You basically won't watch unless Naniwa is winning. Even if Naniwa got in to Blizzcon, if he loses in the first round, you'll still stop watching and go back to writing "WCS is dead, too many Koreans" complaints.

I think this season 3 finals is exciting because spots #15 and 16 are still up for grabs. The remaining uncertainty is better than if it was guaranteed that Naniwa was in, right?



What im actually saying is one foreigner at Blizzcon is the injection WCS desperately needs. (W as in WORLD, not South Korea). And if that doesnt become the case, there will in retrospect be nothing this season that has legitimized the new system. And that i sad.

A bit dramatic, don't you think?

Looking at "legitimacy" only by the nationality of the players is amazingly short-sighted. You don't want to consider player races, playing styles, results, or metagame at all, huh?



Of course I do consider those aspects. But in fact compared to Dreamhacks and IEMS etc. the WCS must provide something that makes it the highlight. If the football world cup for example were the least interesting football scen because of Brazil A, B and C competing with Germany A, B and so on it would loose its reason to exist.

Many people like to play that national states are dead the community is global-card, but we primitive people that just gets much of the excitement from playing the silly game of national support have to be involved otherwise Wcs will never get 200 K viewers.

But you are aware that the World Cup weights regional representation by their relative strength, yes? That's why Europe gets 13 representatives but Asia, despite having 10x the population, only gets 5.
lolfail9001
Profile Joined August 2013
Russian Federation40190 Posts
October 27 2013 11:38 GMT
#1315
On October 27 2013 20:31 umade wrote:
Naniwa won't make it, and we will have the least watched grand finals EVER. Oh WCS, how I love thee.

It's not like Swedes will wake up in time for his off-stage off-stream games :D
DeMoN pulls off a Miracle and Flies to the Moon
Aunvilgod
Profile Joined December 2011
2653 Posts
October 27 2013 11:45 GMT
#1316
The problem is that you cannot have a true World Finals at this time. The distribution of skill is way too concentrated to Korea. Blizzard cannot make the WCS Grand Finals the most important tournament. They HAVE to give this status to the GSL & OSL. WCS Grand Finals should be the new WCG where everybody gets together and has a fun time. Maybe they can make it look like it is the most competitive tournament so more casuals tune in but the way it is currently the viewer numbers will be bad.
ilovegroov | Blizzards mapmaker(s?) suck ass | #1 Protoss hater
Bertholdz
Profile Joined July 2013
23 Posts
October 27 2013 11:52 GMT
#1317
On October 27 2013 20:37 coverpunch wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 20:21 Bertholdz wrote:
On October 27 2013 20:02 coverpunch wrote:
On October 27 2013 19:38 Bertholdz wrote:
On October 27 2013 19:23 coverpunch wrote:
What kind of threat is that? You basically won't watch unless Naniwa is winning. Even if Naniwa got in to Blizzcon, if he loses in the first round, you'll still stop watching and go back to writing "WCS is dead, too many Koreans" complaints.

I think this season 3 finals is exciting because spots #15 and 16 are still up for grabs. The remaining uncertainty is better than if it was guaranteed that Naniwa was in, right?



What im actually saying is one foreigner at Blizzcon is the injection WCS desperately needs. (W as in WORLD, not South Korea). And if that doesnt become the case, there will in retrospect be nothing this season that has legitimized the new system. And that i sad.

A bit dramatic, don't you think?

Looking at "legitimacy" only by the nationality of the players is amazingly short-sighted. You don't want to consider player races, playing styles, results, or metagame at all, huh?



Of course I do consider those aspects. But in fact compared to Dreamhacks and IEMS etc. the WCS must provide something that makes it the highlight. If the football world cup for example were the least interesting football scen because of Brazil A, B and C competing with Germany A, B and so on it would loose its reason to exist.

Many people like to play that national states are dead the community is global-card, but we primitive people that just gets much of the excitement from playing the silly game of national support have to be involved otherwise Wcs will never get 200 K viewers.

But you are aware that the World Cup weights regional representation by their relative strength, yes? That's why Europe gets 13 representatives but Asia, despite having 10x the population, only gets 5.


Yes thats exactly my point. 13 to 5 may seem unbalanced but it might be fair atm. 16 to 0 though is a point from which you struggle uphill a mt Everest, however fait it may be.
Bertholdz
Profile Joined July 2013
23 Posts
October 27 2013 11:57 GMT
#1318
On October 27 2013 20:45 Aunvilgod wrote:
The problem is that you cannot have a true World Finals at this time. The distribution of skill is way too concentrated to Korea. Blizzard cannot make the WCS Grand Finals the most important tournament. They HAVE to give this status to the GSL & OSL. WCS Grand Finals should be the new WCG where everybody gets together and has a fun time. Maybe they can make it look like it is the most competitive tournament so more casuals tune in but the way it is currently the viewer numbers will be bad.


Couldn't agree more.
BaneRiders
Profile Joined August 2013
Sweden3630 Posts
October 27 2013 12:14 GMT
#1319
On October 27 2013 20:52 Bertholdz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2013 20:37 coverpunch wrote:
On October 27 2013 20:21 Bertholdz wrote:
On October 27 2013 20:02 coverpunch wrote:
On October 27 2013 19:38 Bertholdz wrote:
On October 27 2013 19:23 coverpunch wrote:
What kind of threat is that? You basically won't watch unless Naniwa is winning. Even if Naniwa got in to Blizzcon, if he loses in the first round, you'll still stop watching and go back to writing "WCS is dead, too many Koreans" complaints.

I think this season 3 finals is exciting because spots #15 and 16 are still up for grabs. The remaining uncertainty is better than if it was guaranteed that Naniwa was in, right?



What im actually saying is one foreigner at Blizzcon is the injection WCS desperately needs. (W as in WORLD, not South Korea). And if that doesnt become the case, there will in retrospect be nothing this season that has legitimized the new system. And that i sad.

A bit dramatic, don't you think?

Looking at "legitimacy" only by the nationality of the players is amazingly short-sighted. You don't want to consider player races, playing styles, results, or metagame at all, huh?



Of course I do consider those aspects. But in fact compared to Dreamhacks and IEMS etc. the WCS must provide something that makes it the highlight. If the football world cup for example were the least interesting football scen because of Brazil A, B and C competing with Germany A, B and so on it would loose its reason to exist.

Many people like to play that national states are dead the community is global-card, but we primitive people that just gets much of the excitement from playing the silly game of national support have to be involved otherwise Wcs will never get 200 K viewers.

But you are aware that the World Cup weights regional representation by their relative strength, yes? That's why Europe gets 13 representatives but Asia, despite having 10x the population, only gets 5.


Yes thats exactly my point. 13 to 5 may seem unbalanced but it might be fair atm. 16 to 0 though is a point from which you struggle uphill a mt Everest, however fait it may be.



Indeed, guaranteeing participation from Asia, Africa and so on was a clever move that contributes to the high interest in the World Cup and in football at large, both for fans and future players I'm sure. Everyone dreams of seeing their team making an upset and it happens quite often too. It would be very unfortunate if Africa, Asia and North America would have to qualify against European and South American teams.

The difference between a final with foreigner participation and one without is that it is the end of it for many foreigner fans if we have a full Korean final. It is not the end of it for SC2 or anything like that, but it is simply not interesting enough for many people to watch all Korean matches to find out who the best Korean is in one competition, be it the grand final or some other competition. That means a full Korean final will reduce the number of viewers amongst those to whom it does matter if there is a foreigner participating. Those who don't care about where the participants come from but want to see the best will always be happy so no problem there.

I'm one of those who really need foreigner participation in a tournament to give a shit. It is not a threat or anything, it is how it is. Luckily for me there is DH winter, Homestory cup, another round of Red Bull battle Grounds and Fragbite Masters with both foreigner and Korean participation to look forward to, including players I root for, so I'm not going to get starved to death before the next year is here, hopefully with an improved WCS system in place!

One evidence of the importance of foreigner participation can be seen in this very thread. Just consider how much interest there is in this solely due to Naniwa still having a chance, although I have to admit the probability of Naniwa making it looks smaller than the percentage given right now.
Earth, Water, Air and Protoss!
Bogeyman
Profile Joined May 2010
Sweden307 Posts
October 27 2013 12:15 GMT
#1320
You've got to be a serious hater of Naniwa to prefer an all-korean Blizzcon.

I don't have much hope, but please Soulkey... please. o__o
And Revival, Naniwa is practically your teammate. Go roll around in snow naked for an hour or something. Do it for the team!
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