Given all 50:50 matches:
50% Dear gets to semis and passes Naniwa
50% Oz gets to semis and passes Naniwa
25% Winner of Trap/Byul gets to Finals and passes Naniwa

Odds of 2 or 3 of these happening:
37.5% -- Naniwa is out

Odds of exactly 1 happening:
43.75% -- Naniwa may have to play tiebreaker with Revival

Odds of 0 happening:
18.75% -- Naniwa and Revival are both in.

Edit: Fixed so Trap/Byul have to win finals not just get there.
Thx The_Templar

The_Templar

your Country52798 Posts

October 27 2013 02:15 GMT

#1263

On October 27 2013 11:15 KillerDucky wrote:
Given all 50:50 matches:
50% Dear gets to semis and passes Naniwa
50% Oz gets to semis and passes Naniwa
50% Winner of Trap/Byul gets to Finals and passes Naniwa

Odds of 2 or 3 of these happening:
50% -- Naniwa is out

Odds of exactly 1 happening:
37.5% -- Naniwa may have to play tiebreaker with Revival

Odds of 0 happening:
12.5% -- Naniwa and Revival are both in.

Trap/Byul have to win the whole thing

Die4Ever

United States17737 Posts

October 27 2013 03:10 GMT

#1264

updated with results of Maru vs MMA

Sharkey

668 Posts

October 27 2013 03:29 GMT

#1265

I am confused. Why don't Byul and Trap not have the same chance of going to Blizzcon? If they win Season 3 Finals they go; if they don't win Season 3 Finals they don't go. I am asking because I want to make sure I am not missing something. Looking forward to your response.

Dodgin

Canada39254 Posts

October 27 2013 03:32 GMT

#1266

On October 27 2013 12:29 Sharkey wrote:
I am confused. Why don't Byul and Trap not have the same chance of going to Blizzcon? If they win Season 3 Finals they go; if they don't win Season 3 Finals they don't go. I am asking because I want to make sure I am not missing something. Looking forward to your response.

Different aligulac ratings and different opponents

Shellshock

United States97276 Posts

October 27 2013 03:32 GMT

#1267

The main part of the OP uses the aligulac rating system database to help predict the winners of matches and future opponents so not all players are treated equal. If you look at the bottom of the OP there is a breakdown if every player had a 50% chance to win against any other player and ByuL and Trap have the same % chance to qualify.

Sharkey

668 Posts

October 27 2013 03:36 GMT

#1268

On October 27 2013 12:32 Shellshock wrote:
The main part of the OP uses the aligulac rating system database to help predict the winners of matches and future opponents so not all players are treated equal. If you look at the bottom of the OP there is a breakdown if every player had a 50% chance to win against any other player and ByuL and Trap have the same % chance to qualify.

On October 27 2013 12:32 Dodgin wrote:

Show nested quote +

Different aligulac ratings and different opponents

Thank you! It all makes sense now

9-BiT

United States1089 Posts

October 27 2013 03:47 GMT

#1269

Ok yup, deer is getting through. Now we just have to hope byul loses.

FiWiFaKi

Canada9859 Posts

October 27 2013 04:04 GMT

#1270

On October 27 2013 12:47 9-BiT wrote:
Ok yup, deer is getting through. Now we just have to hope byul loses.

Doesn't matter if Byul wins, his chance is still really small.

What we have to hope for is that Oz doesn't win.

Die4Ever

United States17737 Posts

October 27 2013 04:04 GMT

#1271

updated with results of Dear vs MC

Sobienski

Portugal5 Posts

October 27 2013 04:05 GMT

#1272

It's all on Soulkey's hand now, have to win both is matches.

Salient

United States876 Posts

October 27 2013 04:09 GMT

#1273

Go Soulkey and Byul! Stop Oz and Trap!!!

hansonslee

United States2027 Posts

October 27 2013 04:10 GMT

#1274

I think there is a good chance for Soulkey to kill off Oz because SK has a good ZvP record while Oz is more of a PvP specialist. But we'll see what happens! So, no need to fear yet, Naniwa fans! :D

Ghulmore

Canada14 Posts

October 27 2013 04:11 GMT

#1275

Really hope we don't end up with Trap vs Dear finals, I don't mean to be that guy but I see no reason for why Dear wouldn't throw those games, Trap gets to go to Blizzcon and thus gets money for attending as well and theres no way to tell if Trap would just give Dear the money he'd get for first place.

Really bad situation because even if Trap did win legitimately alot of people would think otherwise to

will216

United States185 Posts

October 27 2013 04:12 GMT

#1276

Is Dear in Blizzcon now ?

Shellshock

United States97276 Posts

October 27 2013 04:13 GMT

#1277

On October 27 2013 13:12 will216 wrote:
Is Dear in Blizzcon now ?

I guess it's not 100% but he's 15th in points right now so he will probably get to go

NoGasfOu

United States1117 Posts

October 27 2013 04:16 GMT

#1278

Oh Dear. Thank god. Waiting for Oz to finish SoulKey and I'll will be a happy guy.

redpeople

70 Posts

October 27 2013 04:21 GMT

#1279

maru vs soulkey final plz

Waise

3165 Posts

October 27 2013 04:42 GMT

#1280

On October 27 2013 13:11 Ghulmore wrote:
Really hope we don't end up with Trap vs Dear finals, I don't mean to be that guy but I see no reason for why Dear wouldn't throw those games, Trap gets to go to Blizzcon and thus gets money for attending as well and theres no way to tell if Trap would just give Dear the money he'd get for first place.

Really bad situation because even if Trap did win legitimately alot of people would think otherwise to

these people are professionals and probably take pride in their work and their play. sure, match fixing happens sometimes in sports. no reason to assume it would happen now just because it would benefit them. match fixing ALWAYS benefits SOMEONE, that doesn't mean it's always happening.

bottom line - if you post this stuff with no evidence other than "what if?" then YOU are responsible for starting the rumor.