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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On October 27 2013 11:09 bertu wrote: If you factor the tiebreaker against revival, it's closer to 3/8. no I figured out what's up, I counted one of byul/trap winning by itself as knocking naniwa out, now I have 5/8 | ||
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KillerDucky
United States498 Posts
50% Dear gets to semis and passes Naniwa 50% Oz gets to semis and passes Naniwa 25% Winner of Trap/Byul gets to Finals and passes Naniwa Odds of 2 or 3 of these happening: 37.5% -- Naniwa is out Odds of exactly 1 happening: 43.75% -- Naniwa may have to play tiebreaker with Revival Odds of 0 happening: 18.75% -- Naniwa and Revival are both in. Edit: Fixed so Trap/Byul have to win finals not just get there. Thx The_Templar | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On October 27 2013 11:15 KillerDucky wrote: Given all 50:50 matches: 50% Dear gets to semis and passes Naniwa 50% Oz gets to semis and passes Naniwa 50% Winner of Trap/Byul gets to Finals and passes Naniwa Odds of 2 or 3 of these happening: 50% -- Naniwa is out Odds of exactly 1 happening: 37.5% -- Naniwa may have to play tiebreaker with Revival Odds of 0 happening: 12.5% -- Naniwa and Revival are both in. Trap/Byul have to win the whole thing | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17670 Posts
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Sharkey
668 Posts
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Dodgin
Canada39254 Posts
On October 27 2013 12:29 Sharkey wrote: I am confused. Why don't Byul and Trap not have the same chance of going to Blizzcon? If they win Season 3 Finals they go; if they don't win Season 3 Finals they don't go. I am asking because I want to make sure I am not missing something. Looking forward to your response. Different aligulac ratings and different opponents | ||
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Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
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Sharkey
668 Posts
On October 27 2013 12:32 Shellshock wrote: The main part of the OP uses the aligulac rating system database to help predict the winners of matches and future opponents so not all players are treated equal. If you look at the bottom of the OP there is a breakdown if every player had a 50% chance to win against any other player and ByuL and Trap have the same % chance to qualify. On October 27 2013 12:32 Dodgin wrote: Different aligulac ratings and different opponents Thank you! It all makes sense now  | ||
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9-BiT
United States1089 Posts
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9858 Posts
On October 27 2013 12:47 9-BiT wrote: Ok yup, deer is getting through. Now we just have to hope byul loses. Doesn't matter if Byul wins, his chance is still really small. What we have to hope for is that Oz doesn't win. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17670 Posts
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Sobienski
Portugal5 Posts
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Salient
United States876 Posts
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hansonslee
United States2027 Posts
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Ghulmore
Canada14 Posts
Really bad situation because even if Trap did win legitimately alot of people would think otherwise to  | ||
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will216
United States185 Posts
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Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
On October 27 2013 13:12 will216 wrote: Is Dear in Blizzcon now ? I guess it's not 100% but he's 15th in points right now so he will probably get to go | ||
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NoGasfOu
United States1117 Posts
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redpeople
70 Posts
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Waise
3165 Posts
On October 27 2013 13:11 Ghulmore wrote: Really hope we don't end up with Trap vs Dear finals, I don't mean to be that guy but I see no reason for why Dear wouldn't throw those games, Trap gets to go to Blizzcon and thus gets money for attending as well and theres no way to tell if Trap would just give Dear the money he'd get for first place. Really bad situation because even if Trap did win legitimately alot of people would think otherwise to these people are professionals and probably take pride in their work and their play. sure, match fixing happens sometimes in sports. no reason to assume it would happen now just because it would benefit them. match fixing ALWAYS benefits SOMEONE, that doesn't mean it's always happening. bottom line - if you post this stuff with no evidence other than "what if?" then YOU are responsible for starting the rumor. | ||
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