Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 65

mage36

415 Posts

October 27 2013 05:03 GMT

#1281

On October 27 2013 13:11 Ghulmore wrote:
Really hope we don't end up with Trap vs Dear finals, I don't mean to be that guy but I see no reason for why Dear wouldn't throw those games, Trap gets to go to Blizzcon and thus gets money for attending as well and theres no way to tell if Trap would just give Dear the money he'd get for first place.

Really bad situation because even if Trap did win legitimately alot of people would think otherwise to

I'd like to think that we've all learned a valuable lesson from the match fixing scandal a few years back. Koreans are dead serious about this and it will mean the end of their career. Plus the Starcraft scene really does not need another scandal to kill itself, especially with how it is doing in Korea. I think the team and the players are very much aware of this fact.

Korean people have a lot of pride in how other people perceive them and ruining your honor is like committing suicide. I think that is reason enough. Look at Savior. He still can't even play on Afreeca without being heavily criticized.

etrensce

Australia337 Posts

October 27 2013 05:06 GMT

#1282

Go Oz! I believe in you

ZachFreeman

Australia484 Posts

October 27 2013 05:51 GMT

#1283

Soulkey is now the foreigner hope!

Kheve

323 Posts

October 27 2013 06:21 GMT

#1284

Only idiots like you. -_-

Naniwa fate hangs more on Oz than on those who needs to win the whole thing. Hell Maru is on fire.

Blargh

United States2103 Posts

October 27 2013 06:42 GMT

#1285

Naniwa chance <40% ._.

I sort of feel like foreigners should get a 10% handicap to their WCS points... Having Naniwa at Blizzcon would probably increase viewer count by so much!

liberate71

Australia10252 Posts

October 27 2013 06:47 GMT

#1286

On October 27 2013 13:12 will216 wrote:
Is Dear in Blizzcon now ?

I think Trap, Oz and ByuL can knock him out if two of the three get into the finals

Elite_

United States4259 Posts

October 27 2013 06:49 GMT

#1287

On October 27 2013 15:47 liberate71 wrote:

Show nested quote +

I think Trap, Oz and ByuL can knock him out if two of the three get into the finals

If Oz gets semifinals he has to play the winner of ByuL vs. Trap, but if the winner of ByuL vs. Trap wins the tournament and Maru beats Dear, Dear is out for sure.

sc2chronic

United States777 Posts

October 27 2013 07:23 GMT

#1288

i get that naniwa represents foreigners, but this is about the BEST PLAYER in the world, not your favorite. if he doesnt advance , its no ones fault but his own. relying on another persons success to qualify is about the dumbest thing in the world and his "fans" should stop hopping on other players dicks in hopes of him advancing.

and yes, i would love to see him qualify. stop fanboying so hard, some of you guys in here. whatever happens happens.

Elite_

United States4259 Posts

October 27 2013 07:29 GMT

#1289

Here's every BlizzCon bracket possibility with the remaining matches in the tournament, all assuming Revival wins his challenger group. If Revival doesn't advance to premier from challenger, you can change every Revival/NaNiwa to NaNiwa.

In some cases, Oz will tie with sOs, as both made the same number of points from WCS and the same number of points from tier 1 foreign events, their seeds will be determined via coinflip. If they do tie, the coinflip will be some time soon™.

Some images don't show up even though I put them all on imgur and they all have {img}link{/img} -_-

But yeah, a lot of these brackets are ridiculous because more than half the possible Ro16 matches could be the BlizzCon finals.

+ Show Spoiler [All 32 possibilities] +

Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Oz > Trap, Maru > Oz
+ Show Spoiler +

Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Oz > Trap, Oz > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/wv7CNye.png

Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Trap > Oz, Maru > Trap
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/qV4qAVO.png

Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Trap > Oz, Trap > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/wMpPNfZ.png

Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, Oz > ByuL, Maru > Oz
+ Show Spoiler +

Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, Oz > ByuL, Oz > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/wv7CNye.png

Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, ByuL > Oz, Maru > ByuL
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/qV4qAVO.png

Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, ByuL > Oz, ByuL > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +

Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Soulkey > Trap, Maru > Soulkey
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/766GlMm.png

Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Soulkey > Trap, Soulkey > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/lsdMmEk.png

Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Trap > Soulkey, Maru > Trap
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/6FUkY6c.png

Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Maru > Dear, Trap > Soulkey, Trap > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/uU2e0QU.png

Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, Soulkey > ByuL, Maru > Soulkey
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/766GlMm.png

Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, Soulkey > ByuL, Soulkey > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/lsdMmEk.png

Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, ByuL > Soulkey, Maru > ByuL
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/6FUkY6c.png

Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Maru > Dear, ByuL > Soulkey, ByuL > Maru
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/rC7422z.png

Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Oz > Trap, Dear > Oz
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/AB0y4CG.png

Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Oz > Trap, Oz > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/RnuIqrM.png

Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Trap > Oz, Dear > Trap
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/YyoodZ3.png

Oz > Soulkey, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Trap > Oz, Trap > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/ukejIAH.png

Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, Oz > ByuL, Dear > Oz
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/AB0y4CG.png

Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, Oz > ByuL, Oz > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/RnuIqrM.png

Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, ByuL > Oz, Dear > ByuL
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/YyoodZ3.png

Oz > Soulkey, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, ByuL > Oz, ByuL > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/wmYCPHg.png

Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Soulkey > Trap, Dear > Soulkey
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/ggMJ2Jc.png

Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Soulkey > Trap, Soulkey > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/mR0llM5.png

Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Trap > Soulkey, Dear > Trap
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/lokgX2t.png

Soulkey > Oz, Trap > ByuL, Dear > Maru, Trap > Soulkey, Trap > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/QBSBqtX.png

Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, Soulkey > ByuL, Dear > Soulkey
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/ggMJ2Jc.png

Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, Soulkey > ByuL, Soulkey > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/mR0llM5.png

Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, ByuL > Soulkey, Dear > ByuL
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/lokgX2t.png

Soulkey > Oz, ByuL > Trap, Dear > Maru, ByuL > Soulkey, ByuL > Dear
+ Show Spoiler +

i.imgur.com/2ZumuYK.png

For those wondering that don't want to look through all of these, 12/32 have NaNiwa vs. Revival

Koerage

Netherlands1220 Posts

October 27 2013 08:58 GMT

#1290

12/32 is about the same at 39%

so looks like its just hoping for nani's fans that SK and Maru keep it up and play the "expected" S3 korean finals a few weeks late

Elite_

United States4259 Posts

October 27 2013 09:03 GMT

#1291

On October 27 2013 17:58 Koerage wrote:
12/32 is about the same at 39%

so looks like its just hoping for nani's fans that SK and Maru keep it up and play the "expected" S3 korean finals a few weeks late

Actually NaNiwa fans are upset no matter what happens because he's either facing Soulkey or Maru in the Ro16 at BlizzCon if he makes it.... If he even makes it past Revival in the tiebreaker.

opisska

Poland8852 Posts

October 27 2013 09:43 GMT

#1292

So let me see if I have it straight:

Ro8: Soulkey loses = Naniwa out, Byul-Trap irrelevant

If not dediced yet than

Ro4: Dear-Maru irrelevant. Soulkey wins = Naniwa in.

If not decided yet than

finals: winner of Maru-Dear = Team Naniwa, winner of Trap-ByuL = Team Sniper.

Right?

edit: thanks Elite_ for a correction, I am stupid

Elite_

United States4259 Posts

October 27 2013 09:56 GMT

#1293

On October 27 2013 18:43 opisska wrote:
So let me see if I have it straight:

Ro8: Soulkey loses = Naniwa out, Byul-Trap irrelevant

If not dediced yet than

Ro4: Dear-Maru irrelevant. Soulkey wins = Naniwa in.

If not decided yet than

finals: winner of Maru-Dear = Team Naniwa, winner of ~~Soulkey~~-Trap-ByuL = Team Sniper.

Right?

Now it's right.

Bertholdz

23 Posts

October 27 2013 10:09 GMT

#1294

This is not about Naniwafans. With Vortix showing that except Scarlett and Naniwa no foreigner can compete with the Koreans, and Naniwa being super-hyped after IEM, only Koreans in Blizzcon would be devastating. Basically a fourth time this year of pretty much the same Koreans in a tournament less dynamic than GSL and without any surprises (We know by now MC and MMA and are old elephants getting stomped by young hungry Koreans, and Jaedong apparently has peaked and lost the edge.

I think it may be the nail in the coffin for WCS, loosing many viewers for Blizzcon (I wont sit up all night for same thing as a month before), and any international drama. So we Naniwa-fans may be silly but you righteous We-will-see-the-best-players-which-are-the-Koreans-people kind of miss the point i Think.

nam nam

Sweden4672 Posts

October 27 2013 10:13 GMT

#1295

I have a feeling that the whole process of qualification will turn out to be more exciting than Naniwa's actual run at blizzcon if he manages to qualify. Not that I don't want to see him there but the chance that he'll just fizzle out is large enough for me not to get too invested in this.

Elite_

United States4259 Posts

October 27 2013 10:18 GMT

#1296

On October 27 2013 19:09 Bertholdz wrote:
This is not about Naniwafans. With Vortix showing that except Scarlett and Naniwa no foreigner can compete with the Koreans, and Naniwa being super-hyped after IEM, only Koreans in Blizzcon would be devastating. Basically a fourth time this year of pretty much the same Koreans in a tournament less dynamic than GSL and without any surprises (We know by now MC and MMA and are old elephants getting stomped by young hungry Koreans, and Jaedong apparently has peaked and lost the edge.

I think it may be the nail in the coffin for WCS, loosing many viewers for Blizzcon (I wont sit up all night for same thing as a month before), and any international drama. So we Naniwa-fans may be silly but you righteous We-will-see-the-best-players-which-are-the-Koreans-people kind of miss the point i Think.

The whole point of WCS was to get the 16 best performing players of the year. If NaNiwa doesn't make it it's because he didn't perform well enough.

coverpunch

United States2093 Posts

October 27 2013 10:23 GMT

#1297

What kind of threat is that? You basically won't watch unless Naniwa is winning. Even if Naniwa got in to Blizzcon, if he loses in the first round, you'll still stop watching and go back to writing "WCS is dead, too many Koreans" complaints.

I think this season 3 finals is exciting because spots #15 and 16 are still up for grabs. The remaining uncertainty is better than if it was guaranteed that Naniwa was in, right?

coverpunch

United States2093 Posts

October 27 2013 10:26 GMT

#1298

I hope we see the hilarity of Byul or Trap in the finals so that Dear goes from Naniwa 's worst enemy to Naniwa's best friend.

Elite_

United States4259 Posts

October 27 2013 10:35 GMT

#1299

On October 27 2013 19:26 coverpunch wrote:
I hope we see the hilarity of Byul or Trap in the finals so that Dear goes from Naniwa 's worst enemy to Naniwa's best friend.

Nah, you hope Oz wins against Soulkey so you can watch the hilarity that will be the hundreds of temp-bans to the NaNiwa fans in the LR thread a hour into the broadcast.

Bertholdz

23 Posts

October 27 2013 10:38 GMT

#1300

On October 27 2013 19:23 coverpunch wrote:
What kind of threat is that? You basically won't watch unless Naniwa is winning. Even if Naniwa got in to Blizzcon, if he loses in the first round, you'll still stop watching and go back to writing "WCS is dead, too many Koreans" complaints.

I think this season 3 finals is exciting because spots #15 and 16 are still up for grabs. The remaining uncertainty is better than if it was guaranteed that Naniwa was in, right?

What im actually saying is one foreigner at Blizzcon is the injection WCS desperately needs. (W as in WORLD, not South Korea). And if that doesnt become the case, there will in retrospect be nothing this season that has legitimized the new system. And that i sad.

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