• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EST 08:02
CET 14:02
KST 22:02
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
RSL Season 3 - Playoffs Preview0RSL Season 3 - RO16 Groups C & D Preview0RSL Season 3 - RO16 Groups A & B Preview2TL.net Map Contest #21: Winners12Intel X Team Liquid Seoul event: Showmatches and Meet the Pros10
Community News
RSL Season 3: RO16 results & RO8 bracket13Weekly Cups (Nov 10-16): Reynor, Solar lead Zerg surge1[TLMC] Fall/Winter 2025 Ladder Map Rotation14Weekly Cups (Nov 3-9): Clem Conquers in Canada4SC: Evo Complete - Ranked Ladder OPEN ALPHA12
StarCraft 2
General
RSL Season 3: RO16 results & RO8 bracket SC: Evo Complete - Ranked Ladder OPEN ALPHA RSL Season 3 - Playoffs Preview Mech is the composition that needs teleportation t GM / Master map hacker and general hacking and cheating thread
Tourneys
RSL Revival: Season 3 $5,000+ WardiTV 2025 Championship StarCraft Evolution League (SC Evo Biweekly) Constellation Cup - Main Event - Stellar Fest 2025 RSL Offline Finals Dates + Ticket Sales!
Strategy
Custom Maps
Map Editor closed ?
External Content
Mutation # 500 Fright night Mutation # 499 Chilling Adaptation Mutation # 498 Wheel of Misfortune|Cradle of Death Mutation # 497 Battle Haredened
Brood War
General
Data analysis on 70 million replays A cwal.gg Extension - Easily keep track of anyone soO on: FanTaSy's Potential Return to StarCraft [ASL20] Ask the mapmakers — Drop your questions FlaSh on: Biggest Problem With SnOw's Playstyle
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues Small VOD Thread 2.0 [BSL21] GosuLeague T1 Ro16 - Tue & Thu 22:00 CET [BSL21] RO16 Tie Breaker - Group B - Sun 21:00 CET
Strategy
Current Meta Game Theory for Starcraft How to stay on top of macro? PvZ map balance
Other Games
General Games
Clair Obscur - Expedition 33 Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread EVE Corporation Path of Exile [Game] Osu!
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread The Games Industry And ATVI Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine About SC2SEA.COM
Fan Clubs
White-Ra Fan Club The herO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Movie Discussion! Anime Discussion Thread Korean Music Discussion
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion NBA General Discussion MLB/Baseball 2023 TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
The Health Impact of Joining…
TrAiDoS
Dyadica Evangelium — Chapt…
Hildegard
Saturation point
Uldridge
DnB/metal remix FFO Mick Go…
ImbaTosS
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 2159 users

Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 70

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 68 69 70 71 72 78 Next
Stoffelhase
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany162 Posts
October 27 2013 19:03 GMT
#1381
On October 28 2013 03:46 Die4Ever wrote:
You reminded me to change the tie breaker from a 50/50 to an actual match prediction. So Naniwa's chances should go up a little in the next update. But then again without the challenger league groups I still have Revival at 50% to get top 2 in his group, and he probably will have a better chance than that.

but also i think revivals chance to get out of the group is maybe 70-80%.. he is overall maybe higher skilled than his possible opponents and also is the only one training 24/7 for this
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17709 Posts
October 27 2013 19:03 GMT
#1382
On October 28 2013 04:02 LOGMATHR wrote:
So as long as the winner between Trap/Byul doesnt win the whole thing, naniwa is safe? But he might have to play Revival for a spot at blizzcon?

Right. But even if he ties with Revival, the tie breaker is a best of 5 at blizzcon so he still kinda gets to go even if he loses the tie breaker and doesn't make it to the regular tournament.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17709 Posts
October 27 2013 19:03 GMT
#1383
On October 28 2013 04:03 Stoffelhase wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 03:46 Die4Ever wrote:
You reminded me to change the tie breaker from a 50/50 to an actual match prediction. So Naniwa's chances should go up a little in the next update. But then again without the challenger league groups I still have Revival at 50% to get top 2 in his group, and he probably will have a better chance than that.

but also i think revivals chance to get out of the group is maybe 70-80%.. he is overall maybe higher skilled than his possible opponents and also is the only one training 24/7 for this

Yea, I wish they would release the groups already lol.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Neazbo
Profile Joined May 2013
United Kingdom698 Posts
October 27 2013 19:15 GMT
#1384
With the way this has all been shaping up, I can't see anything else happening other than a NaNi Revival decider match.
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 19:15 GMT
#1385
On October 28 2013 04:00 Die4Ever wrote:
Also Revival fans are cheering for Dear, Maru, Soulkey, but I'm not sure I've ever seen a Revival fan lol.

I'm a Revival fan. I love his stream. He interacts with all of his viewers to the best of his capabilities. D:
TheSayo182
Profile Joined September 2012
Italy243 Posts
October 27 2013 19:15 GMT
#1386
Anyone got confirm that the challenger leagues will give point for the current season?
"Remember: Probes & Pylons and when behind Dark Shrine!"
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 19:16 GMT
#1387
On October 28 2013 04:15 TheSayo182 wrote:
Anyone got confirm that the challenger leagues will give point for the current season?

Seeing how EU is already done and they got points, yes.
teddyoojo
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
Germany22369 Posts
October 27 2013 19:55 GMT
#1388
revival is literally the only person that has any reason to practice/even play challenger
Esports historian since 2000. Creator of 'The Universe' and 'The best scrambled Eggs 2013'. Host of 'Star Wars Marathon 2015'. Thinker of 'teddyoojo's Thoughts'. Earths and Moons leading CS:GO expert. Lord of the Rings.
chipmonklord17
Profile Joined February 2011
United States11944 Posts
October 27 2013 19:59 GMT
#1389
On October 28 2013 04:55 teddyoojo wrote:
revival is literally the only person that has any reason to practice/even play challenger


and that's only because IEM chose him over anyone else
Dingodile
Profile Joined December 2011
4137 Posts
October 27 2013 20:03 GMT
#1390
On October 28 2013 04:03 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 04:03 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 03:46 Die4Ever wrote:
You reminded me to change the tie breaker from a 50/50 to an actual match prediction. So Naniwa's chances should go up a little in the next update. But then again without the challenger league groups I still have Revival at 50% to get top 2 in his group, and he probably will have a better chance than that.

but also i think revivals chance to get out of the group is maybe 70-80%.. he is overall maybe higher skilled than his possible opponents and also is the only one training 24/7 for this

Yea, I wish they would release the groups already lol.

no groups, single elimination tournament, all bo5 except grand final bo7.
1st vs 16th, 2nd vs 15th, ...
We know the bracket right after WCS S3 Finals before Blizzard release it.
Grubby | ToD | Moon | Lyn | Sky
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 27 2013 20:08 GMT
#1391
He's talking about the Challenger league groups for WCS AM and Revival
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 20:09 GMT
#1392
On October 28 2013 05:03 Dingodile wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 04:03 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 28 2013 04:03 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 03:46 Die4Ever wrote:
You reminded me to change the tie breaker from a 50/50 to an actual match prediction. So Naniwa's chances should go up a little in the next update. But then again without the challenger league groups I still have Revival at 50% to get top 2 in his group, and he probably will have a better chance than that.

but also i think revivals chance to get out of the group is maybe 70-80%.. he is overall maybe higher skilled than his possible opponents and also is the only one training 24/7 for this

Yea, I wish they would release the groups already lol.

no groups, single elimination tournament, all bo5 except grand final bo7.
1st vs 16th, 2nd vs 15th, ...
We know the bracket right after WCS S3 Finals before Blizzard release it.

The WCS America Challenger League groups... The ones that include Revival's 25 points that will tie him with NaNiwa... ~_~
BrassMonkey27
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada616 Posts
October 27 2013 20:16 GMT
#1393
On October 28 2013 05:09 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 05:03 Dingodile wrote:
On October 28 2013 04:03 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 28 2013 04:03 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 03:46 Die4Ever wrote:
You reminded me to change the tie breaker from a 50/50 to an actual match prediction. So Naniwa's chances should go up a little in the next update. But then again without the challenger league groups I still have Revival at 50% to get top 2 in his group, and he probably will have a better chance than that.

but also i think revivals chance to get out of the group is maybe 70-80%.. he is overall maybe higher skilled than his possible opponents and also is the only one training 24/7 for this

Yea, I wish they would release the groups already lol.

no groups, single elimination tournament, all bo5 except grand final bo7.
1st vs 16th, 2nd vs 15th, ...
We know the bracket right after WCS S3 Finals before Blizzard release it.

The WCS America Challenger League groups... The ones that include Revival's 25 points that will tie him with NaNiwa... ~_~


So lame how Revival got points from IEM for being a replacement.. the only reason why he is still even in the conversation.
HoneyBadger.784 Diamond KR "A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep."
DreamOen
Profile Joined March 2010
Spain1400 Posts
October 27 2013 20:16 GMT
#1394
So naniwa is in?
Tester | MC | Crank | Flash | Jaedong | MVP
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 27 2013 20:16 GMT
#1395
Not if Trap wins WCS
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17709 Posts
October 27 2013 20:18 GMT
#1396
updated with results of Trap vs Byul.
For Naniwa fans he's at 71.5%, if Trap loses to Soulkey then Naniwa's chances go up to 85.6%.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16168 Posts
October 27 2013 20:18 GMT
#1397
On October 28 2013 05:16 Shellshock wrote:
Not if Trap wins WCS

So what special are you going to do for your 50k post?
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16168 Posts
October 27 2013 20:20 GMT
#1398
Sorry Trap, but I hope Soulkey knocks you out so Naniwa gets a much better chance of advancing to Blizzcon
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
frogrubdown
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
1266 Posts
October 27 2013 20:21 GMT
#1399
On October 28 2013 05:18 Die4Ever wrote:
updated with results of Trap vs Byul.
For Naniwa fans he's at 71.5%, if Trap loses to Soulkey then Naniwa's chances go up to 85.6%.


Whoa, Naniwa is favored 70-30 over Revival? Sounds like the 50-50 prediction will be more trustworthy.
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 20:25 GMT
#1400
On October 28 2013 05:21 frogrubdown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 05:18 Die4Ever wrote:
updated with results of Trap vs Byul.
For Naniwa fans he's at 71.5%, if Trap loses to Soulkey then Naniwa's chances go up to 85.6%.


Whoa, Naniwa is favored 70-30 over Revival? Sounds like the 50-50 prediction will be more trustworthy.

No, NaNiwa is favored because Revival's Challenger group hasn't happened yet.
Prev 1 68 69 70 71 72 78 Next
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
SC Evo League
12:30
#16
SteadfastSC11
LiquipediaDiscussion
WardiTV Korean Royale
12:00
Group B
WardiTV1013
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
Lowko217
Rex 170
SortOf 124
MindelVK 32
trigger 17
SteadfastSC 11
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 49188
Rain 3105
Larva 602
firebathero 470
Mini 412
PianO 382
Last 269
Killer 215
Rush 124
Aegong 66
[ Show more ]
sorry 65
Backho 41
soO 33
HiyA 32
Movie 25
yabsab 22
ToSsGirL 21
Oya187 20
zelot 18
Purpose 14
Hm[arnc] 13
Terrorterran 9
ivOry 6
Icarus 6
Dota 2
Gorgc4287
Dendi784
XcaliburYe334
League of Legends
JimRising 341
Reynor110
Counter-Strike
ScreaM1671
zeus999
oskar128
edward27
Super Smash Bros
Chillindude14
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor199
Other Games
B2W.Neo1634
crisheroes352
Fuzer 104
Trikslyr27
Organizations
Dota 2
PGL Dota 2 - Main Stream26991
StarCraft 2
ComeBackTV 857
Other Games
gamesdonequick548
StarCraft: Brood War
lovetv 8
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 12 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Dota 2
• lizZardDota246
League of Legends
• Stunt836
Upcoming Events
IPSL
3h 58m
Julia vs Artosis
JDConan vs DragOn
OSC
3h 58m
BSL 21
6h 58m
TerrOr vs Aeternum
HBO vs Kyrie
RSL Revival
18h 28m
Wardi Open
1d
IPSL
1d 6h
StRyKeR vs OldBoy
Sziky vs Tarson
BSL 21
1d 6h
StRyKeR vs Artosis
OyAji vs KameZerg
OSC
1d 9h
OSC
1d 19h
Monday Night Weeklies
2 days
[ Show More ]
OSC
2 days
Wardi Open
2 days
Replay Cast
3 days
Wardi Open
3 days
Tenacious Turtle Tussle
4 days
The PondCast
4 days
Replay Cast
5 days
LAN Event
6 days
Replay Cast
6 days
Replay Cast
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2025-11-16
Stellar Fest: Constellation Cup
Eternal Conflict S1

Ongoing

C-Race Season 1
IPSL Winter 2025-26
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 4
SOOP Univ League 2025
YSL S2
BSL Season 21
CSCL: Masked Kings S3
SLON Tour Season 2
RSL Revival: Season 3
META Madness #9
BLAST Rivals Fall 2025
IEM Chengdu 2025
PGL Masters Bucharest 2025
Thunderpick World Champ.
CS Asia Championships 2025
ESL Pro League S22
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2

Upcoming

BSL 21 Non-Korean Championship
Acropolis #4
IPSL Spring 2026
HSC XXVIII
RSL Offline Finals
WardiTV 2025
IEM Kraków 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026: Closed Qualifier
eXTREMESLAND 2025
ESL Impact League Season 8
SL Budapest Major 2025
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.