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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 70

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 68 69 70 71 72 78 Next
Stoffelhase
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany162 Posts
October 27 2013 19:03 GMT
#1381
On October 28 2013 03:46 Die4Ever wrote:
You reminded me to change the tie breaker from a 50/50 to an actual match prediction. So Naniwa's chances should go up a little in the next update. But then again without the challenger league groups I still have Revival at 50% to get top 2 in his group, and he probably will have a better chance than that.

but also i think revivals chance to get out of the group is maybe 70-80%.. he is overall maybe higher skilled than his possible opponents and also is the only one training 24/7 for this
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17683 Posts
October 27 2013 19:03 GMT
#1382
On October 28 2013 04:02 LOGMATHR wrote:
So as long as the winner between Trap/Byul doesnt win the whole thing, naniwa is safe? But he might have to play Revival for a spot at blizzcon?

Right. But even if he ties with Revival, the tie breaker is a best of 5 at blizzcon so he still kinda gets to go even if he loses the tie breaker and doesn't make it to the regular tournament.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17683 Posts
October 27 2013 19:03 GMT
#1383
On October 28 2013 04:03 Stoffelhase wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 03:46 Die4Ever wrote:
You reminded me to change the tie breaker from a 50/50 to an actual match prediction. So Naniwa's chances should go up a little in the next update. But then again without the challenger league groups I still have Revival at 50% to get top 2 in his group, and he probably will have a better chance than that.

but also i think revivals chance to get out of the group is maybe 70-80%.. he is overall maybe higher skilled than his possible opponents and also is the only one training 24/7 for this

Yea, I wish they would release the groups already lol.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Neazbo
Profile Joined May 2013
United Kingdom698 Posts
October 27 2013 19:15 GMT
#1384
With the way this has all been shaping up, I can't see anything else happening other than a NaNi Revival decider match.
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 19:15 GMT
#1385
On October 28 2013 04:00 Die4Ever wrote:
Also Revival fans are cheering for Dear, Maru, Soulkey, but I'm not sure I've ever seen a Revival fan lol.

I'm a Revival fan. I love his stream. He interacts with all of his viewers to the best of his capabilities. D:
TheSayo182
Profile Joined September 2012
Italy243 Posts
October 27 2013 19:15 GMT
#1386
Anyone got confirm that the challenger leagues will give point for the current season?
"Remember: Probes & Pylons and when behind Dark Shrine!"
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 19:16 GMT
#1387
On October 28 2013 04:15 TheSayo182 wrote:
Anyone got confirm that the challenger leagues will give point for the current season?

Seeing how EU is already done and they got points, yes.
teddyoojo
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
Germany22369 Posts
October 27 2013 19:55 GMT
#1388
revival is literally the only person that has any reason to practice/even play challenger
Esports historian since 2000. Creator of 'The Universe' and 'The best scrambled Eggs 2013'. Host of 'Star Wars Marathon 2015'. Thinker of 'teddyoojo's Thoughts'. Earths and Moons leading CS:GO expert. Lord of the Rings.
chipmonklord17
Profile Joined February 2011
United States11944 Posts
October 27 2013 19:59 GMT
#1389
On October 28 2013 04:55 teddyoojo wrote:
revival is literally the only person that has any reason to practice/even play challenger


and that's only because IEM chose him over anyone else
Dingodile
Profile Joined December 2011
4135 Posts
October 27 2013 20:03 GMT
#1390
On October 28 2013 04:03 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 04:03 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 03:46 Die4Ever wrote:
You reminded me to change the tie breaker from a 50/50 to an actual match prediction. So Naniwa's chances should go up a little in the next update. But then again without the challenger league groups I still have Revival at 50% to get top 2 in his group, and he probably will have a better chance than that.

but also i think revivals chance to get out of the group is maybe 70-80%.. he is overall maybe higher skilled than his possible opponents and also is the only one training 24/7 for this

Yea, I wish they would release the groups already lol.

no groups, single elimination tournament, all bo5 except grand final bo7.
1st vs 16th, 2nd vs 15th, ...
We know the bracket right after WCS S3 Finals before Blizzard release it.
Grubby | ToD | Moon | Lyn | Sky
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 27 2013 20:08 GMT
#1391
He's talking about the Challenger league groups for WCS AM and Revival
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 20:09 GMT
#1392
On October 28 2013 05:03 Dingodile wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 04:03 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 28 2013 04:03 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 03:46 Die4Ever wrote:
You reminded me to change the tie breaker from a 50/50 to an actual match prediction. So Naniwa's chances should go up a little in the next update. But then again without the challenger league groups I still have Revival at 50% to get top 2 in his group, and he probably will have a better chance than that.

but also i think revivals chance to get out of the group is maybe 70-80%.. he is overall maybe higher skilled than his possible opponents and also is the only one training 24/7 for this

Yea, I wish they would release the groups already lol.

no groups, single elimination tournament, all bo5 except grand final bo7.
1st vs 16th, 2nd vs 15th, ...
We know the bracket right after WCS S3 Finals before Blizzard release it.

The WCS America Challenger League groups... The ones that include Revival's 25 points that will tie him with NaNiwa... ~_~
BrassMonkey27
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada616 Posts
October 27 2013 20:16 GMT
#1393
On October 28 2013 05:09 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 05:03 Dingodile wrote:
On October 28 2013 04:03 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 28 2013 04:03 Stoffelhase wrote:
On October 28 2013 03:46 Die4Ever wrote:
You reminded me to change the tie breaker from a 50/50 to an actual match prediction. So Naniwa's chances should go up a little in the next update. But then again without the challenger league groups I still have Revival at 50% to get top 2 in his group, and he probably will have a better chance than that.

but also i think revivals chance to get out of the group is maybe 70-80%.. he is overall maybe higher skilled than his possible opponents and also is the only one training 24/7 for this

Yea, I wish they would release the groups already lol.

no groups, single elimination tournament, all bo5 except grand final bo7.
1st vs 16th, 2nd vs 15th, ...
We know the bracket right after WCS S3 Finals before Blizzard release it.

The WCS America Challenger League groups... The ones that include Revival's 25 points that will tie him with NaNiwa... ~_~


So lame how Revival got points from IEM for being a replacement.. the only reason why he is still even in the conversation.
HoneyBadger.784 Diamond KR "A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep."
DreamOen
Profile Joined March 2010
Spain1400 Posts
October 27 2013 20:16 GMT
#1394
So naniwa is in?
Tester | MC | Crank | Flash | Jaedong | MVP
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 27 2013 20:16 GMT
#1395
Not if Trap wins WCS
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17683 Posts
October 27 2013 20:18 GMT
#1396
updated with results of Trap vs Byul.
For Naniwa fans he's at 71.5%, if Trap loses to Soulkey then Naniwa's chances go up to 85.6%.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16168 Posts
October 27 2013 20:18 GMT
#1397
On October 28 2013 05:16 Shellshock wrote:
Not if Trap wins WCS

So what special are you going to do for your 50k post?
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16168 Posts
October 27 2013 20:20 GMT
#1398
Sorry Trap, but I hope Soulkey knocks you out so Naniwa gets a much better chance of advancing to Blizzcon
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
frogrubdown
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
1266 Posts
October 27 2013 20:21 GMT
#1399
On October 28 2013 05:18 Die4Ever wrote:
updated with results of Trap vs Byul.
For Naniwa fans he's at 71.5%, if Trap loses to Soulkey then Naniwa's chances go up to 85.6%.


Whoa, Naniwa is favored 70-30 over Revival? Sounds like the 50-50 prediction will be more trustworthy.
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 27 2013 20:25 GMT
#1400
On October 28 2013 05:21 frogrubdown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 05:18 Die4Ever wrote:
updated with results of Trap vs Byul.
For Naniwa fans he's at 71.5%, if Trap loses to Soulkey then Naniwa's chances go up to 85.6%.


Whoa, Naniwa is favored 70-30 over Revival? Sounds like the 50-50 prediction will be more trustworthy.

No, NaNiwa is favored because Revival's Challenger group hasn't happened yet.
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