• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EST 06:56
CET 12:56
KST 20:56
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
RSL Season 3 - Playoffs Preview0RSL Season 3 - RO16 Groups C & D Preview0RSL Season 3 - RO16 Groups A & B Preview2TL.net Map Contest #21: Winners12Intel X Team Liquid Seoul event: Showmatches and Meet the Pros10
Community News
RSL Season 3: RO16 results & RO8 bracket13Weekly Cups (Nov 10-16): Reynor, Solar lead Zerg surge1[TLMC] Fall/Winter 2025 Ladder Map Rotation14Weekly Cups (Nov 3-9): Clem Conquers in Canada4SC: Evo Complete - Ranked Ladder OPEN ALPHA12
StarCraft 2
General
RSL Season 3: RO16 results & RO8 bracket SC: Evo Complete - Ranked Ladder OPEN ALPHA RSL Season 3 - Playoffs Preview Mech is the composition that needs teleportation t GM / Master map hacker and general hacking and cheating thread
Tourneys
RSL Revival: Season 3 $5,000+ WardiTV 2025 Championship StarCraft Evolution League (SC Evo Biweekly) Constellation Cup - Main Event - Stellar Fest 2025 RSL Offline Finals Dates + Ticket Sales!
Strategy
Custom Maps
Map Editor closed ?
External Content
Mutation # 500 Fright night Mutation # 499 Chilling Adaptation Mutation # 498 Wheel of Misfortune|Cradle of Death Mutation # 497 Battle Haredened
Brood War
General
Data analysis on 70 million replays A cwal.gg Extension - Easily keep track of anyone soO on: FanTaSy's Potential Return to StarCraft [ASL20] Ask the mapmakers — Drop your questions FlaSh on: Biggest Problem With SnOw's Playstyle
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues Small VOD Thread 2.0 [BSL21] GosuLeague T1 Ro16 - Tue & Thu 22:00 CET [BSL21] RO16 Tie Breaker - Group B - Sun 21:00 CET
Strategy
Current Meta Game Theory for Starcraft How to stay on top of macro? PvZ map balance
Other Games
General Games
Clair Obscur - Expedition 33 Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread EVE Corporation Path of Exile [Game] Osu!
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread The Games Industry And ATVI Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine About SC2SEA.COM
Fan Clubs
White-Ra Fan Club The herO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Movie Discussion! Anime Discussion Thread Korean Music Discussion
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion NBA General Discussion MLB/Baseball 2023 TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
The Health Impact of Joining…
TrAiDoS
Dyadica Evangelium — Chapt…
Hildegard
Saturation point
Uldridge
DnB/metal remix FFO Mick Go…
ImbaTosS
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 2108 users

Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 74

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 72 73 74 75 76 78 Next
Bagration
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States18282 Posts
October 27 2013 23:49 GMT
#1461
I actually hope Revival makes it. We only have 2 Zergs out of 16 so far, and PvT can get boring quick.
Team Slayers, Axiom-Acer and Vile forever
ChoDing
Profile Joined November 2009
United States740 Posts
October 28 2013 00:06 GMT
#1462
so NANIWA goes to blizzcon?

fuck...
관광 since 2008. Master of Cheese. God of Heartbreak Ridge.
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 28 2013 00:07 GMT
#1463
On October 28 2013 09:06 ChoDing wrote:
so NANIWA goes to blizzcon?

fuck...

He goes, but he's probably going to lose to Revival in the opening tiebreaker match and won't make it into the actual Ro16 bracket.
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 28 2013 00:07 GMT
#1464
He's guaranteed the play in game at worst
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
ChoDing
Profile Joined November 2009
United States740 Posts
October 28 2013 00:07 GMT
#1465
On October 28 2013 09:07 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:06 ChoDing wrote:
so NANIWA goes to blizzcon?

fuck...

He goes, but he's probably going to lose to Revival in the opening tiebreaker match and won't make it into the actual Ro16 bracket.


oh revival has same wcs points as naniwa?

sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet

all koreans round 16 hehehehe
관광 since 2008. Master of Cheese. God of Heartbreak Ridge.
will216
Profile Joined August 2012
United States185 Posts
October 28 2013 00:08 GMT
#1466
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site
I'm not the greatest , but I will be one day ...
ChoDing
Profile Joined November 2009
United States740 Posts
October 28 2013 00:08 GMT
#1467
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !
관광 since 2008. Master of Cheese. God of Heartbreak Ridge.
ThePlagueJG
Profile Joined May 2013
Sweden1010 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-28 00:14:49
October 28 2013 00:09 GMT
#1468
I'm thinking like this; Atleast he get a chance to play himself into BlizzCon in the end!

On October 28 2013 09:08 ChoDing wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !



Im retarded sorry
ThorZaIN | NaNiwa | SaSe | PartinG | sOs | Jaedong | sOs restored passion!
ChoDing
Profile Joined November 2009
United States740 Posts
October 28 2013 00:10 GMT
#1469
On October 28 2013 09:09 ThePlagueJG wrote:
I'm thinking like this; Atleast he get a chance to play himself into BlizzCon in the end!

Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:08 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !



Btw, get out of this fanclub since your just here to hate.


says the guy from sweden

im not hating..i just want more zerg

plus im korean so i want all koreans duhhh


관광 since 2008. Master of Cheese. God of Heartbreak Ridge.
jax1492
Profile Joined November 2009
United States1632 Posts
October 28 2013 00:13 GMT
#1470
NANIWA! congrats
ThePlagueJG
Profile Joined May 2013
Sweden1010 Posts
October 28 2013 00:15 GMT
#1471
On October 28 2013 09:10 ChoDing wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:09 ThePlagueJG wrote:
I'm thinking like this; Atleast he get a chance to play himself into BlizzCon in the end!

On October 28 2013 09:08 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !



Btw, get out of this fanclub since your just here to hate.


says the guy from sweden

im not hating..i just want more zerg

plus im korean so i want all koreans duhhh



Apologizing was in the wrong place
ThorZaIN | NaNiwa | SaSe | PartinG | sOs | Jaedong | sOs restored passion!
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17708 Posts
October 28 2013 00:15 GMT
#1472
On October 28 2013 09:15 ThePlagueJG wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:10 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:09 ThePlagueJG wrote:
I'm thinking like this; Atleast he get a chance to play himself into BlizzCon in the end!

On October 28 2013 09:08 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !



Btw, get out of this fanclub since your just here to hate.


says the guy from sweden

im not hating..i just want more zerg

plus im korean so i want all koreans duhhh



Apologizing was in the wrong place

This thread does look like the Naniwa fanclub sometimes lol.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
ThePlagueJG
Profile Joined May 2013
Sweden1010 Posts
October 28 2013 00:16 GMT
#1473
On October 28 2013 09:15 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:15 ThePlagueJG wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:10 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:09 ThePlagueJG wrote:
I'm thinking like this; Atleast he get a chance to play himself into BlizzCon in the end!

On October 28 2013 09:08 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !



Btw, get out of this fanclub since your just here to hate.


says the guy from sweden

im not hating..i just want more zerg

plus im korean so i want all koreans duhhh



Apologizing was in the wrong place

This thread does look like the Naniwa fanclub sometimes lol.


I'm tired, I apologize for saying what I said there, sometimes having more than 10 webpages hurt my brain.
ThorZaIN | NaNiwa | SaSe | PartinG | sOs | Jaedong | sOs restored passion!
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17708 Posts
October 28 2013 00:17 GMT
#1474
On October 28 2013 09:16 ThePlagueJG wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:15 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:15 ThePlagueJG wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:10 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:09 ThePlagueJG wrote:
I'm thinking like this; Atleast he get a chance to play himself into BlizzCon in the end!

On October 28 2013 09:08 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !



Btw, get out of this fanclub since your just here to hate.


says the guy from sweden

im not hating..i just want more zerg

plus im korean so i want all koreans duhhh



Apologizing was in the wrong place

This thread does look like the Naniwa fanclub sometimes lol.


I'm tired, I apologize for saying what I said there, sometimes having more than 10 webpages hurt my brain.

I was being serious, this thread really does look like the Naniwa fan club sometimes lol.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Greendotz
Profile Joined October 2011
United Kingdom2053 Posts
October 28 2013 00:19 GMT
#1475
I don’t really understand statistics when this many variables are thrown into the equation but how come Naniwa has 0.005% more chance of qualifying if Soulkey wins over Dear?
Neazbo
Profile Joined May 2013
United Kingdom698 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-28 00:21:29
October 28 2013 00:20 GMT
#1476
Revival still needs top 2 in his group first, calm down.

(to those saying He will beat Nani)
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 28 2013 00:21 GMT
#1477
On October 28 2013 09:19 Greendotz wrote:
I don’t really understand statistics when this many variables are thrown into the equation but how come Naniwa has 0.005% more chance of qualifying if Soulkey wins over Dear?

Because Soulkey has more points than Dear so it's only logical, even though NaNiwa isn't gaining any more points, if he could, it would help him if Soulkey won.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17708 Posts
October 28 2013 00:22 GMT
#1478
On October 28 2013 09:21 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:19 Greendotz wrote:
I don’t really understand statistics when this many variables are thrown into the equation but how come Naniwa has 0.005% more chance of qualifying if Soulkey wins over Dear?

Because Soulkey has more points than Dear so it's only logical, even though NaNiwa isn't gaining any more points, if he could, it would help him if Soulkey won.

No, technically speaking Dear vs Soulkey has no affect on Naniwa. It's just margin of error differences due to random sampling.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Greendotz
Profile Joined October 2011
United Kingdom2053 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-28 00:23:36
October 28 2013 00:23 GMT
#1479
On October 28 2013 09:21 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:19 Greendotz wrote:
I don’t really understand statistics when this many variables are thrown into the equation but how come Naniwa has 0.005% more chance of qualifying if Soulkey wins over Dear?

Because Soulkey has more points than Dear so it's only logical, even though NaNiwa isn't gaining any more points, if he could, it would help him if Soulkey won.


So it doesn't actually help Naniwa but it's just how the function works?

*edit* yup, thanks Die4ever
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-28 00:37:38
October 28 2013 00:37 GMT
#1480
It calculates odds by running a simulation a few million times. Every time that you run it you might get very slightly different results.

If you wanted to calculate the odds directly (no simulations) then you would have to rewrite the formula after ever tournament / game.
Prev 1 72 73 74 75 76 78 Next
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
RSL Revival
07:30
Playoffs
herO vs MaruLIVE!
Tasteless1831
Crank 1280
ComeBackTV 625
IndyStarCraft 250
Rex160
3DClanTV 109
CranKy Ducklings106
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
Tasteless 1770
Crank 1248
mouzHeroMarine 347
IndyStarCraft 239
Rex 162
SortOf 93
MindelVK 34
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 44556
Rain 2336
Larva 923
firebathero 498
PianO 428
Killer 269
Last 239
Mini 233
Rush 136
sorry 86
[ Show more ]
Aegong 53
Backho 37
yabsab 33
HiyA 30
soO 27
Movie 23
Hm[arnc] 12
Purpose 12
zelot 5
Oya187 4
Terrorterran 1
Dota 2
Gorgc1662
XcaliburYe414
League of Legends
JimRising 387
Reynor59
Counter-Strike
zeus122
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor175
Other Games
summit1g18451
B2W.Neo1333
crisheroes280
Trikslyr31
Organizations
Dota 2
PGL Dota 2 - Main Stream25054
Other Games
gamesdonequick600
StarCraft: Brood War
UltimateBattle 51
lovetv 10
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 13 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Berry_CruncH204
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Dota 2
• lizZardDota230
League of Legends
• Stunt975
Upcoming Events
WardiTV Korean Royale
4m
WardiTV22
SC Evo League
34m
IPSL
5h 4m
Julia vs Artosis
JDConan vs DragOn
OSC
5h 4m
BSL 21
8h 4m
TerrOr vs Aeternum
HBO vs Kyrie
RSL Revival
19h 34m
Wardi Open
1d 2h
IPSL
1d 8h
StRyKeR vs OldBoy
Sziky vs Tarson
BSL 21
1d 8h
StRyKeR vs Artosis
OyAji vs KameZerg
OSC
1d 11h
[ Show More ]
OSC
1d 21h
Monday Night Weeklies
2 days
OSC
2 days
Wardi Open
3 days
Replay Cast
3 days
Wardi Open
4 days
Tenacious Turtle Tussle
4 days
The PondCast
4 days
Replay Cast
5 days
LAN Event
6 days
Replay Cast
6 days
Replay Cast
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2025-11-16
Stellar Fest: Constellation Cup
Eternal Conflict S1

Ongoing

C-Race Season 1
IPSL Winter 2025-26
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 4
SOOP Univ League 2025
YSL S2
BSL Season 21
CSCL: Masked Kings S3
SLON Tour Season 2
RSL Revival: Season 3
META Madness #9
BLAST Rivals Fall 2025
IEM Chengdu 2025
PGL Masters Bucharest 2025
Thunderpick World Champ.
CS Asia Championships 2025
ESL Pro League S22
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2

Upcoming

BSL 21 Non-Korean Championship
Acropolis #4
IPSL Spring 2026
HSC XXVIII
RSL Offline Finals
WardiTV 2025
IEM Kraków 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026: Closed Qualifier
eXTREMESLAND 2025
ESL Impact League Season 8
SL Budapest Major 2025
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.