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Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 74

Forum Index > SC2 General
1549 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 72 73 74 75 76 78 Next
Bagration
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States18282 Posts
October 27 2013 23:49 GMT
#1461
I actually hope Revival makes it. We only have 2 Zergs out of 16 so far, and PvT can get boring quick.
Team Slayers, Axiom-Acer and Vile forever
ChoDing
Profile Joined November 2009
United States740 Posts
October 28 2013 00:06 GMT
#1462
so NANIWA goes to blizzcon?

fuck...
관광 since 2008. Master of Cheese. God of Heartbreak Ridge.
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 28 2013 00:07 GMT
#1463
On October 28 2013 09:06 ChoDing wrote:
so NANIWA goes to blizzcon?

fuck...

He goes, but he's probably going to lose to Revival in the opening tiebreaker match and won't make it into the actual Ro16 bracket.
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 28 2013 00:07 GMT
#1464
He's guaranteed the play in game at worst
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
ChoDing
Profile Joined November 2009
United States740 Posts
October 28 2013 00:07 GMT
#1465
On October 28 2013 09:07 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:06 ChoDing wrote:
so NANIWA goes to blizzcon?

fuck...

He goes, but he's probably going to lose to Revival in the opening tiebreaker match and won't make it into the actual Ro16 bracket.


oh revival has same wcs points as naniwa?

sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet

all koreans round 16 hehehehe
관광 since 2008. Master of Cheese. God of Heartbreak Ridge.
will216
Profile Joined August 2012
United States185 Posts
October 28 2013 00:08 GMT
#1466
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site
I'm not the greatest , but I will be one day ...
ChoDing
Profile Joined November 2009
United States740 Posts
October 28 2013 00:08 GMT
#1467
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !
관광 since 2008. Master of Cheese. God of Heartbreak Ridge.
ThePlagueJG
Profile Joined May 2013
Sweden1010 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-28 00:14:49
October 28 2013 00:09 GMT
#1468
I'm thinking like this; Atleast he get a chance to play himself into BlizzCon in the end!

On October 28 2013 09:08 ChoDing wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !



Im retarded sorry
ThorZaIN | NaNiwa | SaSe | PartinG | sOs | Jaedong | sOs restored passion!
ChoDing
Profile Joined November 2009
United States740 Posts
October 28 2013 00:10 GMT
#1469
On October 28 2013 09:09 ThePlagueJG wrote:
I'm thinking like this; Atleast he get a chance to play himself into BlizzCon in the end!

Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:08 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !



Btw, get out of this fanclub since your just here to hate.


says the guy from sweden

im not hating..i just want more zerg

plus im korean so i want all koreans duhhh


관광 since 2008. Master of Cheese. God of Heartbreak Ridge.
jax1492
Profile Joined November 2009
United States1632 Posts
October 28 2013 00:13 GMT
#1470
NANIWA! congrats
ThePlagueJG
Profile Joined May 2013
Sweden1010 Posts
October 28 2013 00:15 GMT
#1471
On October 28 2013 09:10 ChoDing wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:09 ThePlagueJG wrote:
I'm thinking like this; Atleast he get a chance to play himself into BlizzCon in the end!

On October 28 2013 09:08 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !



Btw, get out of this fanclub since your just here to hate.


says the guy from sweden

im not hating..i just want more zerg

plus im korean so i want all koreans duhhh



Apologizing was in the wrong place
ThorZaIN | NaNiwa | SaSe | PartinG | sOs | Jaedong | sOs restored passion!
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17734 Posts
October 28 2013 00:15 GMT
#1472
On October 28 2013 09:15 ThePlagueJG wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:10 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:09 ThePlagueJG wrote:
I'm thinking like this; Atleast he get a chance to play himself into BlizzCon in the end!

On October 28 2013 09:08 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !



Btw, get out of this fanclub since your just here to hate.


says the guy from sweden

im not hating..i just want more zerg

plus im korean so i want all koreans duhhh



Apologizing was in the wrong place

This thread does look like the Naniwa fanclub sometimes lol.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
ThePlagueJG
Profile Joined May 2013
Sweden1010 Posts
October 28 2013 00:16 GMT
#1473
On October 28 2013 09:15 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:15 ThePlagueJG wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:10 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:09 ThePlagueJG wrote:
I'm thinking like this; Atleast he get a chance to play himself into BlizzCon in the end!

On October 28 2013 09:08 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !



Btw, get out of this fanclub since your just here to hate.


says the guy from sweden

im not hating..i just want more zerg

plus im korean so i want all koreans duhhh



Apologizing was in the wrong place

This thread does look like the Naniwa fanclub sometimes lol.


I'm tired, I apologize for saying what I said there, sometimes having more than 10 webpages hurt my brain.
ThorZaIN | NaNiwa | SaSe | PartinG | sOs | Jaedong | sOs restored passion!
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17734 Posts
October 28 2013 00:17 GMT
#1474
On October 28 2013 09:16 ThePlagueJG wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:15 Die4Ever wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:15 ThePlagueJG wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:10 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:09 ThePlagueJG wrote:
I'm thinking like this; Atleast he get a chance to play himself into BlizzCon in the end!

On October 28 2013 09:08 ChoDing wrote:
On October 28 2013 09:08 will216 wrote:
Ties for qualification to the Global Final
" If there is a tie across the Global Finals cutoff, the players in question will travel to BlizzCon to play an offline, best-of-five match to decide who will be seeded into the WCS Global Finals bracket." from WCS site


thanks

so naniwa wont make it

good to me !



Btw, get out of this fanclub since your just here to hate.


says the guy from sweden

im not hating..i just want more zerg

plus im korean so i want all koreans duhhh



Apologizing was in the wrong place

This thread does look like the Naniwa fanclub sometimes lol.


I'm tired, I apologize for saying what I said there, sometimes having more than 10 webpages hurt my brain.

I was being serious, this thread really does look like the Naniwa fan club sometimes lol.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Greendotz
Profile Joined October 2011
United Kingdom2053 Posts
October 28 2013 00:19 GMT
#1475
I don’t really understand statistics when this many variables are thrown into the equation but how come Naniwa has 0.005% more chance of qualifying if Soulkey wins over Dear?
Neazbo
Profile Joined May 2013
United Kingdom698 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-28 00:21:29
October 28 2013 00:20 GMT
#1476
Revival still needs top 2 in his group first, calm down.

(to those saying He will beat Nani)
Elite_
Profile Joined June 2012
United States4259 Posts
October 28 2013 00:21 GMT
#1477
On October 28 2013 09:19 Greendotz wrote:
I don’t really understand statistics when this many variables are thrown into the equation but how come Naniwa has 0.005% more chance of qualifying if Soulkey wins over Dear?

Because Soulkey has more points than Dear so it's only logical, even though NaNiwa isn't gaining any more points, if he could, it would help him if Soulkey won.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17734 Posts
October 28 2013 00:22 GMT
#1478
On October 28 2013 09:21 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:19 Greendotz wrote:
I don’t really understand statistics when this many variables are thrown into the equation but how come Naniwa has 0.005% more chance of qualifying if Soulkey wins over Dear?

Because Soulkey has more points than Dear so it's only logical, even though NaNiwa isn't gaining any more points, if he could, it would help him if Soulkey won.

No, technically speaking Dear vs Soulkey has no affect on Naniwa. It's just margin of error differences due to random sampling.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Greendotz
Profile Joined October 2011
United Kingdom2053 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-28 00:23:36
October 28 2013 00:23 GMT
#1479
On October 28 2013 09:21 Elite_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 28 2013 09:19 Greendotz wrote:
I don’t really understand statistics when this many variables are thrown into the equation but how come Naniwa has 0.005% more chance of qualifying if Soulkey wins over Dear?

Because Soulkey has more points than Dear so it's only logical, even though NaNiwa isn't gaining any more points, if he could, it would help him if Soulkey won.


So it doesn't actually help Naniwa but it's just how the function works?

*edit* yup, thanks Die4ever
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-10-28 00:37:38
October 28 2013 00:37 GMT
#1480
It calculates odds by running a simulation a few million times. Every time that you run it you might get very slightly different results.

If you wanted to calculate the odds directly (no simulations) then you would have to rewrite the formula after ever tournament / game.
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