Zerg rule finally toppled - Page 11

On April 20 2013 03:28 stelzer wrote:
wtf is this?

here are the pro winrates for hots: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At0PE4rdhsI9dDE0cEprWkwwMGxQdTczTTlLNW1qX1E#gid=0

On April 20 2013 01:31 TheBB wrote:
So turns out ForGG might not be half bad after all. :p

On April 20 2013 04:21 Tuczniak wrote:
I don't think the system is bad. It will produce good results in time.

But the big mistake was trying to tell us something about the game, and basing it on questionable top 10. You can't show people, who in fact don't care about math, results which have obvious flaws. They don't care about math or system, but they will eat you, if you show them results like that.

There may be problem with data, but the biggest problem was creating this thread. If you waited a little while and showed some better output, you would get a lot better advertisement. You don't want people to remember "the system where forGG is 4th best in the world".

All math is great and all, but in the end you need experienced mind to look at results. At least that's how it works in physics.

On April 20 2013 04:39 OrgCom wrote:
From reading part of the thread, it seems that your algorithm takes into account other players that a certain player has played and 'takes' points from a player for winning.

For example, if forGG has been 'french-plowing', this means his high rating shows that his skill is far above that of his opponents.

Suppose the region he's playing in is isolated, i.e. they rarely play NA or KR players, doesn't this mean there is a low correlation between forGG's rating and other KR player ratings?

It seems to say that it is much more accurate if you compare players within a region, but has more uncertainty when compared to other regions. This means that if forGG suddenly moves to Korea, his rating would take some time to stabilize again. Of course this is on the assumption that regions are isolated.

On April 20 2013 05:53 _SpiRaL_ wrote:
Can the people criticizing it whilst offering absolutely nothing constructive please remember:

The accuracy of this ranking supercedes anything produced so far in SC2 and maybe in any esport.

Using this ranking would have you absolutely dominate a randomly selected individual in liquibets on average, even if you only selected that individual from a group of hardcore fans/casters and players.

So it DOES have merit, irrefutably. I keep seeing the same stuff "oh its numbers and maths blah blah but its not applicable to real life play" etc etc. Well actually, it is. It has very good predictive ability which only increases with time. You people have exactly the same kind of dinosaur way of thinking that riddles professional sport. Think of it like this: This is moneyball and you are the old dinosaur scouts who judge based one 'intuition'.

The ranking list is vastly superior to anything you as an individual could come up with in accuracy even if you disagree with it.

And no they are not ignoring your constructive criticism you don't understand what constructive means (to that absolutely clueless Austrian guy especially who was posting on the last page, my god what a low IQ cretin. Prediction he is no more than 15 years old and does not do well at maths at school).

On April 20 2013 06:21 gondolin wrote:
From what I remember the system use something similar to true skill, so it is not "flawed", just it will take some time to converge, especially with the arrival of a lot of new players (the kespa player). What would make it converge a lot sooner is to use something like true skill through time, to incorporate futre results into the present ranking.

On April 20 2013 04:05 Grovbolle wrote:

Here are the actual rates based on more games http://aligulac.com/results/

On April 20 2013 11:16 SlixSC wrote:



You are including show matches and a significant amount of amateur games. Including games that have nothing to do with pro play is kind of defeating the whole purpose of a balance graph. Why not take it to the extreme and also include bronze matches and practise matches? You are including amateur matches and showmatches after all so it doesn't seem that far off.

On April 20 2013 16:03 Big-t wrote:
Who is Bunny? Top 10 foreigners and I have never heard of him????

On April 20 2013 16:15 MasterOfPuppets wrote:


Last year he got 3rd at WCS Denmark.

Goes to show how much you know about the foreign scene really..

On April 20 2013 16:23 IcedBacon wrote:


News flash, a huge majority of StarCraft fans do not care about the results of WCS Denmark. Also that bracket doesn't look intimidating in the slightest.

On April 20 2013 16:26 figq wrote:
Don't you dare question the mighty relevance of getting 3rd in WCS Denmark. The man is a legend.