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Zerg rule finally toppled - Page 9

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Snuggles
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States1865 Posts
April 18 2013 23:47 GMT
#161
I wish Protoss was doing better =(. They're definitely at the bottom when it comes to stardom imo.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-19 00:05:32
April 19 2013 00:04 GMT
#162
I don't think you should be counting online games, and also beating players with a much lower rating than you shouldn't count as much, I think ForGG at #4 is proof of these 2 issues
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Black Gun
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Germany4482 Posts
April 19 2013 00:07 GMT
#163
hmm, maybe you could use some neural network methodology to learn appropriate weights for different tournaments and tournament stages from the data.

other than that, great job, effort and... zerg reign of terror finally over, fuck yes!
"What am I supposed to do against this?" - "Lose!" :-]
AndAgain
Profile Joined November 2010
United States2621 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-19 00:20:57
April 19 2013 00:19 GMT
#164
OP, why don't you use these methods to get to #1 on liquibets? It would give you more credibility.
All your teeth should fall out and hair should grow in their place!
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
April 19 2013 02:06 GMT
#165
On April 19 2013 09:19 AndAgain wrote:
OP, why don't you use these methods to get to #1 on liquibets? It would give you more credibility.

http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=400305
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-19 07:53:29
April 19 2013 06:51 GMT
#166
On April 19 2013 08:45 IcedBacon wrote:
Well that list looks absoutely inaccurate considering the koreans that are on it. Life is not surprising but the rest are. I wouldnt use this data for anything, TLPD ELO is way better.


Edit: Never mind, not worth it.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Zealously
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
East Gorteau22261 Posts
April 19 2013 07:48 GMT
#167
But guys why is fOrGG #4?
AdministratorBreak the chains
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
April 19 2013 07:53 GMT
#168
On April 19 2013 16:48 Zealously wrote:
But guys why is fOrGG #4?

:D Now you are just trolling.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
SlixSC
Profile Joined October 2012
666 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-19 08:02:30
April 19 2013 08:01 GMT
#169

It doesn't matter that you know your system is inaccurate and somehow use that as a self-justifying argument for posting these statistics anyway. If I were to come up with a system that ranked forGG as the 4th best player in the world I would be too embarrassed to post these statistics anywhere.
Statistics done poorly by people who are aware of the flaws in their system but post them anyway and make it sound like they have any descriptive power.

I don't even...
ninazerg
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States7291 Posts
April 19 2013 08:04 GMT
#170
According to your statistics, there are 5 zergs in the Korean top 10, 1 protoss, and 4 terrans. How is that "Zerg rule finally toppled"?

Not that it's important anyhow, because talking about racial imbalance is pretty frivolous. The better players win more.
"If two pregnant women get into a fist fight, it's like a mecha-battle between two unborn babies." - Fyodor Dostoevsky
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-19 08:09:06
April 19 2013 08:06 GMT
#171
On April 19 2013 17:04 ninazerg wrote:
According to your statistics, there are 5 zergs in the Korean top 10, 1 protoss, and 4 terrans. How is that "Zerg rule finally toppled"?

The mean rating of the top five Terrans is higher than the mean rating of the top five Zergs. It's in the FAQ.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
April 19 2013 08:07 GMT
#172
On April 19 2013 17:01 SlixSC wrote:
It doesn't matter that you know your system is inaccurate and somehow use that as a self-justifying argument for posting these statistics anyway. If I were to come up with a system that would show forGG as the 4th best players in the world I would be so embarrassed and definitely NOT post them anywhere on a public forum.

Statistics done poorly by people who are aware of the flaws in their system but post them anyway and make it sound like they have any descriptive power.

I don't even...

Actually, in general, over a large period of time, the aligulac system have better predictive power than the average liquibet players as well as better than any system currently out there.

Our ranking is not the ultimate truth, nor has it ever been. We are always working on making it better, and one of the issues we are very aware of are the problem with "closed pools" like the ones forGG have getting his surge in points from.

However just because it has flaws, it doesn't mean that you can't still use it, and with some common sense and supplementing with your own knowledge of the scene, try to make a fair who is the best in the world opinion.

Actually aligulac should probably be seen as a site which rewards players who have been playing good in a longer/shorter period of time and are therefore rewarded with points from players who have underperformed.

As always, I encourage people with statistical knowledge to download our DB mysql dump and try out building their own models so we can get a healthy discussion and ultimately, hopefully, improve the entire system.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
SlixSC
Profile Joined October 2012
666 Posts
April 19 2013 08:11 GMT
#173
On April 19 2013 17:07 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 19 2013 17:01 SlixSC wrote:
It doesn't matter that you know your system is inaccurate and somehow use that as a self-justifying argument for posting these statistics anyway. If I were to come up with a system that would show forGG as the 4th best players in the world I would be so embarrassed and definitely NOT post them anywhere on a public forum.

Statistics done poorly by people who are aware of the flaws in their system but post them anyway and make it sound like they have any descriptive power.

I don't even...

Actually, in general, over a large period of time, the aligulac system have better predictive power than the average liquibet players as well as better than any system currently out there.

Our ranking is not the ultimate truth, nor has it ever been. We are always working on making it better, and one of the issues we are very aware of are the problem with "closed pools" like the ones forGG have getting his surge in points from.

However just because it has flaws, it doesn't mean that you can't still use it, and with some common sense and supplementing with your own knowledge of the scene, try to make a fair who is the best in the world opinion.

Actually aligulac should probably be seen as a site which rewards players who have been playing good in a longer/shorter period of time and are therefore rewarded with points from players who have underperformed.

As always, I encourage people with statistical knowledge to download our DB mysql dump and try out building their own models so we can get a healthy discussion and ultimately, hopefully, improve the entire system.


Being more statistically accurate than TLPD is like taking candy from a baby.

You have found a terrible system and made a slightly better one.

*standing ovations*
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
April 19 2013 08:19 GMT
#174
On April 19 2013 17:11 SlixSC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 19 2013 17:07 Grovbolle wrote:
On April 19 2013 17:01 SlixSC wrote:
It doesn't matter that you know your system is inaccurate and somehow use that as a self-justifying argument for posting these statistics anyway. If I were to come up with a system that would show forGG as the 4th best players in the world I would be so embarrassed and definitely NOT post them anywhere on a public forum.

Statistics done poorly by people who are aware of the flaws in their system but post them anyway and make it sound like they have any descriptive power.

I don't even...

Actually, in general, over a large period of time, the aligulac system have better predictive power than the average liquibet players as well as better than any system currently out there.

Our ranking is not the ultimate truth, nor has it ever been. We are always working on making it better, and one of the issues we are very aware of are the problem with "closed pools" like the ones forGG have getting his surge in points from.

However just because it has flaws, it doesn't mean that you can't still use it, and with some common sense and supplementing with your own knowledge of the scene, try to make a fair who is the best in the world opinion.

Actually aligulac should probably be seen as a site which rewards players who have been playing good in a longer/shorter period of time and are therefore rewarded with points from players who have underperformed.

As always, I encourage people with statistical knowledge to download our DB mysql dump and try out building their own models so we can get a healthy discussion and ultimately, hopefully, improve the entire system.


Being more statistically accurate than TLPD is like taking candy from a baby.

You have found a terrible system and made a slightly better one.

*standing ovations*

Yeah that is not what I was saying at all. I simply stated that while our system is far from perfect, it does have a higher predictive power than eg. Liquibet players, and that is without taking stuff like map balance in to consideration.

I am glad that you are able to rank players with your own perfect knowledge of their skill level. We simply try to do based on whatever results are available to us from various tournaments while also building a system which is also capable of predicting outcomes of games.

As always, if you are capable of making a better system, we encourage you to do so, we are already doing all the hard work, which is collecting and organizing the matches as well as categorizing stuff like online/offline and WoL/HotS and making it available to the public so they themselves can experiment with it. If not, then please give suggestions as to what can be improved regarding the ranking method and how you propose we do that.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
SlixSC
Profile Joined October 2012
666 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-19 08:39:38
April 19 2013 08:35 GMT
#175
On April 19 2013 17:19 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 19 2013 17:11 SlixSC wrote:
On April 19 2013 17:07 Grovbolle wrote:
On April 19 2013 17:01 SlixSC wrote:
It doesn't matter that you know your system is inaccurate and somehow use that as a self-justifying argument for posting these statistics anyway. If I were to come up with a system that would show forGG as the 4th best players in the world I would be so embarrassed and definitely NOT post them anywhere on a public forum.

Statistics done poorly by people who are aware of the flaws in their system but post them anyway and make it sound like they have any descriptive power.

I don't even...

Actually, in general, over a large period of time, the aligulac system have better predictive power than the average liquibet players as well as better than any system currently out there.

Our ranking is not the ultimate truth, nor has it ever been. We are always working on making it better, and one of the issues we are very aware of are the problem with "closed pools" like the ones forGG have getting his surge in points from.

However just because it has flaws, it doesn't mean that you can't still use it, and with some common sense and supplementing with your own knowledge of the scene, try to make a fair who is the best in the world opinion.

Actually aligulac should probably be seen as a site which rewards players who have been playing good in a longer/shorter period of time and are therefore rewarded with points from players who have underperformed.

As always, I encourage people with statistical knowledge to download our DB mysql dump and try out building their own models so we can get a healthy discussion and ultimately, hopefully, improve the entire system.


Being more statistically accurate than TLPD is like taking candy from a baby.

You have found a terrible system and made a slightly better one.

*standing ovations*

Yeah that is not what I was saying at all. I simply stated that while our system is far from perfect, it does have a higher predictive power than eg. Liquibet players, and that is without taking stuff like map balance in to consideration.

I am glad that you are able to rank players with your own perfect knowledge of their skill level. We simply try to do based on whatever results are available to us from various tournaments while also building a system which is also capable of predicting outcomes of games.

As always, if you are capable of making a better system, we encourage you to do so, we are already doing all the hard work, which is collecting and organizing the matches as well as categorizing stuff like online/offline and WoL/HotS and making it available to the public so they themselves can experiment with it. If not, then please give suggestions as to what can be improved regarding the ranking method and how you propose we do that.


The fact that nobody has come up with a better system doesn't justify the fact that your system is inaccurate.

You seem like the kind of person that would say things like.. "Yes I failed the test, but so did my best friend and he had even less points so it's all good!" Except for the fact that you failed of course.

There is no point in doing statistics poorly. Do your statistics have any descriptive power? Hardly. Do they have any prescriptive power? Absolutely not.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-19 08:42:51
April 19 2013 08:41 GMT
#176
On April 19 2013 17:35 SlixSC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 19 2013 17:19 Grovbolle wrote:
On April 19 2013 17:11 SlixSC wrote:
On April 19 2013 17:07 Grovbolle wrote:
On April 19 2013 17:01 SlixSC wrote:
It doesn't matter that you know your system is inaccurate and somehow use that as a self-justifying argument for posting these statistics anyway. If I were to come up with a system that would show forGG as the 4th best players in the world I would be so embarrassed and definitely NOT post them anywhere on a public forum.

Statistics done poorly by people who are aware of the flaws in their system but post them anyway and make it sound like they have any descriptive power.

I don't even...

Actually, in general, over a large period of time, the aligulac system have better predictive power than the average liquibet players as well as better than any system currently out there.

Our ranking is not the ultimate truth, nor has it ever been. We are always working on making it better, and one of the issues we are very aware of are the problem with "closed pools" like the ones forGG have getting his surge in points from.

However just because it has flaws, it doesn't mean that you can't still use it, and with some common sense and supplementing with your own knowledge of the scene, try to make a fair who is the best in the world opinion.

Actually aligulac should probably be seen as a site which rewards players who have been playing good in a longer/shorter period of time and are therefore rewarded with points from players who have underperformed.

As always, I encourage people with statistical knowledge to download our DB mysql dump and try out building their own models so we can get a healthy discussion and ultimately, hopefully, improve the entire system.


Being more statistically accurate than TLPD is like taking candy from a baby.

You have found a terrible system and made a slightly better one.

*standing ovations*

Yeah that is not what I was saying at all. I simply stated that while our system is far from perfect, it does have a higher predictive power than eg. Liquibet players, and that is without taking stuff like map balance in to consideration.

I am glad that you are able to rank players with your own perfect knowledge of their skill level. We simply try to do based on whatever results are available to us from various tournaments while also building a system which is also capable of predicting outcomes of games.

As always, if you are capable of making a better system, we encourage you to do so, we are already doing all the hard work, which is collecting and organizing the matches as well as categorizing stuff like online/offline and WoL/HotS and making it available to the public so they themselves can experiment with it. If not, then please give suggestions as to what can be improved regarding the ranking method and how you propose we do that.


The fact that nobody has come up with a better system doesn't justify the fact that your system is inaccurate.

You seem like the kind of person that would say things like.. "Yes I failed the test, but so did my best friend and he had even less points so it's all good!" Except for the fact that you failed of course.


Please point out why our system is inaccurate, other than the fact that ForGG is higher ranked than you think he should be.

From the FAQ of the site

How predictive is the system????

By my understanding, very.

[image loading]

This is a plot of more than 100k historical games (the whole database as of February 2013). On the horizontal axis you find predicted winrate for the presumed stronger player, using the ratings at the time the game was played. The games were grouped in reasonably small groups, i.e. 50%-53.3% and so on upwards. (Obviously no numbers below 50% since this is the predicted winrate for the stronger player.)

On the vertical axis is the actual winrate for each group.

As can be plainly seen, the actual winrate is close to the predicted winrate up to about 80%. The weighted linear fit (blue dashed line) is almost identical to the ideal curve (red dashed line) corresponding to the relationship that predicted winrate equals actual winrate.

Above 80% the winrates become a bit more erratic, and it seems like the system slightly overestimates the chances for the stronger player.

Thus, if the prediction system shows a winrate of

80% or higher in a best of 1
90% or higher in a best of 3
94% or higher in a best of 5
96% or higher in a best of 7
the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.


You seem to just want to shit all over this without offering any valuable input, without taking the time to understand what the issues are in general just seem to be mad because whatever favorite player you might have isn't on top. Please post your Top 50 of players in the world with exact reasons as to why everyone is placed where they are.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Kim Hyuna
Profile Joined March 2013
Korea (South)264 Posts
April 19 2013 08:45 GMT
#177
poor protoss.

nothing new.

as usual.

김현아 fighting!
Clazziquai10
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Singapore1949 Posts
April 19 2013 08:52 GMT
#178
Lucifron > Bogus, MKP, Maru and all those other sick korean ballers made me lol XD
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
April 19 2013 08:56 GMT
#179
On April 19 2013 17:52 Clazziquai10 wrote:
Lucifron > Bogus, MKP, Maru and all those other sick korean ballers made me lol XD

Yeah, that is still a bit of an issue, hopefully WCS will straighten out some of this. Most of Luci's points come from WoL results though.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
baubo
Profile Joined September 2008
China3370 Posts
April 19 2013 09:10 GMT
#180
Any ranking of playres through pure numbers, given the current environment of pro-gaming, is pointless at best and misleading at worst. You just can't do it. There's not enough sample size and not enough cross-matches among different regions to make such a ranking worthwhile.

I don't care how logical or how strong your formula is. It still doesn't mean jack squat if you lack the data to make proper conclusions. It would be like me taking the statistics of the first 5 NBA games of the season and try to come to some conclusion. When the only conclusion one can say at the time is that there can be no solid conclusion.
Meh
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