On April 19 2013 02:20 Canucklehead wrote: Errr I dunno what polt has done lately to be ranked number 2. And forgg 4th? He's not very good. I dunno if he's still 1-1-1 against every race in Hots, like he did in Wol though. Any list that has forgg in the top 5 shouldn't be taken seriously. These lists are an interesting talking point, but not that accurate I find. Except for life. He's the number 1 bonjwa in the scene right now.
This is not a list, it's a ranking. It's not an appraisal or an opinion but the result of a scientifically correct representation of the players skill. Unless you have mathematically correct definition of accuracy in this present case, what you said is just an opinion and a not very forgiving one at that.
You must not be a very critical thinker and take things at face value. If you were you would know the ranking is based on a formula made by a human and is not infallible. I'm saying the formula used to come up with this ranking has flaws in it. I'm not sure why you think it produces an accurate ranking just because it uses fancy stats.
Do you take any list a statistician comes up with as fact without questioning the methods behind them? That's a serious question, since you just assumed everything was a "scientifically correct representation of the players skill" because he told you it was.
Please don't just come in bashing the entire project because ForGG is pretty highly rated.
Why not? That is a pretty big flaw in the system if it produces a ranking that has forgg in the top 5. You guys are pretty sensitive and not open to any criticism I see. A person who took their system more seriously and strove for accuracy would try to figure out why forgg got ranked so high and try to fix the flaws instead of pretending no flaws exist.
Perhaps there should be a FAQ with the most common and/or obvious "fixes" to the ranking system somewhere. Believe me when I say that a) the ranking system is not final and is being worked on, and b) many things have been considered and are being considered. And most of the obvious fixes turn out not to be so useful and/or easy once you start to think about them.
The ranking definitely does have flaws, and I'd say nobody has ever called it perfect, or even close to it. It's not. It will most likely never be, not with a game with so many random factors such as Starcraft 2. It is, however, still pretty damn accurate, compared to all the other ranking systems out there. Just try it: Go to the prediction page and use aligulac's predictions for your liquidbets. You will do significantly better than the average.
Well at least you can take criticism and admit the system has flaws, so thanks for that. I will agree that sc2 is too volatile to produce a very accurate list, especially with bo3s mainly, since I think a bo5 or 7 would be more accurate but that's not practical for most tournaments. I'm not saying your system is awful, but was just pointing out one of the more serious flaws in the system.
On April 19 2013 03:11 Blargh wrote: Obviously these things are not completely accurate of skill. Results don't even reflect skill very well, so it's even less likely a rating system would. Innovation is OBVIOUSLY doing better than Leenock, but he is not on the list. Don't get too caught up in these types of lists. Life's placement makes sense, though.
He is getting there quickly though. Currently 14th in world, 13th Korea.
On April 19 2013 02:20 Canucklehead wrote: Errr I dunno what polt has done lately to be ranked number 2. And forgg 4th? He's not very good. I dunno if he's still 1-1-1 against every race in Hots, like he did in Wol though. Any list that has forgg in the top 5 shouldn't be taken seriously. These lists are an interesting talking point, but not that accurate I find. Except for life. He's the number 1 bonjwa in the scene right now.
This is not a list, it's a ranking. It's not an appraisal or an opinion but the result of a scientifically correct representation of the players skill. Unless you have mathematically correct definition of accuracy in this present case, what you said is just an opinion and a not very forgiving one at that.
You must not be a very critical thinker and take things at face value. If you were you would know the ranking is based on a formula made by a human and is not infallible. I'm saying the formula used to come up with this ranking has flaws in it. I'm not sure why you think it produces an accurate ranking just because it uses fancy stats.
Do you take any list a statistician comes up with as fact without questioning the methods behind them? That's a serious question, since you just assumed everything was a "scientifically correct representation of the players skill" because he told you it was.
Please don't just come in bashing the entire project because ForGG is pretty highly rated.
Why not? That is a pretty big flaw in the system if it produces a ranking that has forgg in the top 5. You guys are pretty sensitive and not open to any criticism I see. A person who took their system more seriously and strove for accuracy would try to figure out why forgg got ranked so high and try to fix the flaws instead of pretending no flaws exist.
Perhaps there should be a FAQ with the most common and/or obvious "fixes" to the ranking system somewhere. Believe me when I say that a) the ranking system is not final and is being worked on, and b) many things have been considered and are being considered. And most of the obvious fixes turn out not to be so useful and/or easy once you start to think about them.
The ranking definitely does have flaws, and I'd say nobody has ever called it perfect, or even close to it. It's not. It will most likely never be, not with a game with so many random factors such as Starcraft 2. It is, however, still pretty damn accurate, compared to all the other ranking systems out there. Just try it: Go to the prediction page and use aligulac's predictions for your liquidbets. You will do significantly better than the average.
Well at least you can take criticism and admit the system has flaws, so thanks for that. I will agree that sc2 is too volatile to produce a very accurate list, especially with bo3s mainly, since I think a bo5 or 7 would be more accurate but that's not practical for most tournaments. I'm not saying your system is awful, but was just pointing out one of the more serious flaws in the system.
Well, there is a difference between pointing out flaws in the system (there are) and saying "Your system sucks and should be ignored".
On April 19 2013 02:20 Canucklehead wrote: Errr I dunno what polt has done lately to be ranked number 2. And forgg 4th? He's not very good. I dunno if he's still 1-1-1 against every race in Hots, like he did in Wol though. Any list that has forgg in the top 5 shouldn't be taken seriously. These lists are an interesting talking point, but not that accurate I find. Except for life. He's the number 1 bonjwa in the scene right now.
This is not a list, it's a ranking. It's not an appraisal or an opinion but the result of a scientifically correct representation of the players skill. Unless you have mathematically correct definition of accuracy in this present case, what you said is just an opinion and a not very forgiving one at that.
You must not be a very critical thinker and take things at face value. If you were you would know the ranking is based on a formula made by a human and is not infallible. I'm saying the formula used to come up with this ranking has flaws in it. I'm not sure why you think it produces an accurate ranking just because it uses fancy stats.
Do you take any list a statistician comes up with as fact without questioning the methods behind them? That's a serious question, since you just assumed everything was a "scientifically correct representation of the players skill" because he told you it was.
Please don't just come in bashing the entire project because ForGG is pretty highly rated.
Why not? That is a pretty big flaw in the system if it produces a ranking that has forgg in the top 5. You guys are pretty sensitive and not open to any criticism I see. A person who took their system more seriously and strove for accuracy would try to figure out why forgg got ranked so high and try to fix the flaws instead of pretending no flaws exist.
Perhaps there should be a FAQ with the most common and/or obvious "fixes" to the ranking system somewhere. Believe me when I say that a) the ranking system is not final and is being worked on, and b) many things have been considered and are being considered. And most of the obvious fixes turn out not to be so useful and/or easy once you start to think about them.
The ranking definitely does have flaws, and I'd say nobody has ever called it perfect, or even close to it. It's not. It will most likely never be, not with a game with so many random factors such as Starcraft 2. It is, however, still pretty damn accurate, compared to all the other ranking systems out there. Just try it: Go to the prediction page and use aligulac's predictions for your liquidbets. You will do significantly better than the average.
Well at least you can take criticism and admit the system has flaws, so thanks for that. I will agree that sc2 is too volatile to produce a very accurate list, especially with bo3s mainly, since I think a bo5 or 7 would be more accurate but that's not practical for most tournaments. I'm not saying your system is awful, but was just pointing out one of the more serious flaws in the system.
A players ranking is not a flaw in the system. A flaw in the system would be talking about a specific flaw in their methodology.
These threads always descend into people criticising it based on who is actually ranked highly. This system will get more accurate with time. HoTs just came out. Give it time. It will be refined and sample sizes will increase.
Some of the reception in this thread is absolutely disgusting. I actually think some people just hate everything to do with math and statistics and refuse, no matter what, to accept it, or appreciate it, or understand it. They just reject it wholly at face value because it's math and because I DISAGREE WITH IT (even despite explanation).
If you're super hung up on the fact that the system has flaws, you shouldn't be, because every mathematical model in existence has flaws. It's nothing new, and nothing that the guys at Aligulac weren't already well aware of before the site was even online months ago.
If you're super hung up on the fact that some of the ratings are weird, maybe you should go look at the TLPD ELO list and see if you can rationalize mOOnGLade and DeMusliM being 3rd and 4th out of all foreigners, and Curious being better than RorO with Flash/Innovation both not in the top 5 at all? Making a rating system is really god damn hard, and the Aligulac one already blows the TLPD one out of the water in many regards. Expecting someone to make a perfect rating system is very unreasonable, especially because anyone who's seen an LR thread in their life can tell you that people have different expectations of 'perfect' anyway - some want a system that calls the best player the one with the most long term accomplishments, while some want a system that calls the best player the one who killed the most nerds in the last 48 hours. No matter what someone will call it imperfect.
And if you feel like ratings are pointless for a game like SC2... okay? If you feel the statistics hold no value or intrigue, then don't read them. It's not like anyone is forcing you to, and crusading the point as if nobody cares is just wrong, because there is people in the LR threads every week who post and talk about the Aligulac predictions. Statistics like this exist for interest and consideration, not to be followed like a church. If you aren't interested or feel they have no value, then you're free to ignore them.
Also, TheBB used the system to do his liquibetting and is (was?) leading in winrate. So technically it's already done better than most people's subjective analysis of player skill, despite its flaws.
On April 19 2013 05:02 MCXD wrote: Also the reception in this thread is absolutely disgusting. I actually think people just hate everything to do with math and statistics and refuse, no matter what, to accept it, or appreciate it, or understand it. They just reject it wholly at face value, because it's math and because I DISAGREE WITH IT.
Anyway, TheBB used the system to do his liquibetting last season, and won (highest win rate). So technically it's done better than most people's supposed subjective analysis of player skill.
I have to say that this fact carrys HUGE weight. If a mathetical model is extremely accurate in its prediction power, that says a LOT about the model imo.
Keep up the good work. All this is very interesting indeed.
On April 19 2013 05:02 MCXD wrote: Also the reception in this thread is absolutely disgusting. I actually think people just hate everything to do with math and statistics and refuse, no matter what, to accept it, or appreciate it, or understand it. They just reject it wholly at face value, because it's math and because I DISAGREE WITH IT.
Anyway, TheBB used the system to do his liquibetting last season, and won (highest win rate). So technically it's done better than most people's supposed subjective analysis of player skill.
I have to say that this fact carrys HUGE weight. If a mathetical model is extremely accurate in its prediction power, that says a LOT about the model imo.
Keep up the good work. All this is very interesting indeed.
Except it kept saying Welmu would qualify for WCS EU! (okay.. "should") + Show Spoiler +
On April 19 2013 05:02 MCXD wrote: Anyway, TheBB used the system to do his liquibetting last season, and won. So technically it's already done better than most people's subjective analysis of player skill.
Don't Liquibet winners get some special icon next to their name (TheBB doesn't have one)?
On April 19 2013 05:02 MCXD wrote: Anyway, TheBB used the system to do his liquibetting last season, and won. So technically it's already done better than most people's subjective analysis of player skill.
Don't Liquibet winners get some special icon next to their name (TheBB doesn't have one)?
I don't actually understand the season structure of liquibet so don't ask me, haha. I'll edit my post to be less bad. Turns out I was slightly remembering wrong anyway.
I think it might actually be this season that's still going on.
On April 19 2013 05:02 MCXD wrote: Anyway, TheBB used the system to do his liquibetting last season, and won. So technically it's already done better than most people's subjective analysis of player skill.
Don't Liquibet winners get some special icon next to their name (TheBB doesn't have one)?
Not sure i thought special icons came from having lots of posts and/or interesting posts, not sure though :D
I really wish you would of seperated HOTS and WoL results...so much of this is still coming off of WoL, so quite frankly I think it means nothing until we get more results in HOTS and WoL is diluted out.
On April 19 2013 05:02 MCXD wrote: Anyway, TheBB used the system to do his liquibetting last season, and won. So technically it's already done better than most people's subjective analysis of player skill.
Don't Liquibet winners get some special icon next to their name (TheBB doesn't have one)?
I don't actually understand the season structure of liquibet so don't ask me, haha. I'll edit my post to be less bad.
I think it might actually be this season that's still going on.
On April 19 2013 05:33 Prplppleatr wrote: I really wish you would of seperated HOTS and WoL results...so much of this is still coming off of WoL, so quite frankly I think it means nothing until we get more results in HOTS and WoL is diluted out.
If we did, then the ratings would have NO validity what so ever. We have less than 2K hots matches.
Someone already linked TLPD HotS, which has Empire Happy as the best player IN THE WORLD
On April 19 2013 05:33 Prplppleatr wrote: I really wish you would of seperated HOTS and WoL results...so much of this is still coming off of WoL, so quite frankly I think it means nothing until we get more results in HOTS and WoL is diluted out.
If we did, then the ratings would have NO validity what so ever. We have less than 2K hots matches.
Someone already linked TLPD HotS, which has Empire Happy as the best player IN THE WORLD
That's my point. We don't have enough results...so until we can get more results and dilute WoL out, it really has no meaning as to the current state.
EPT
