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If the point of this thread is not to say that the game is balanced, but instead to say that balance isn't as bad as people make it seem, then I don't think that's any more valid. Terran has completely fallen off the face of the earth over the last several months. It's commonplace to see team lineups, tournament finals, etc. composed entirely of Zerg and Protoss players. Terran players have pretty much stopped winning major events, and there's no indication that this will change, in fact, it seems to be getting worse. The top winrates in the GSL (and most events) are essentially all Zerg players.
On the contrary, I'd actually say balance is much worse than people make it seem. I haven't seen the game this imbalanced since release. I also haven't seen the community this angry and disinterested since release. The constant ZvZs, PvPs, and PvZs are wearing people down. Pro players are screaming IMBA IMBA IMBA IMBA IMBA in televised games.
Burying your head in the sand won't fix this.
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In case you guys didnt know, Ver didnt actually meant what he wrote here. It's halfway between a satire and a troll. (Source : Monk, who helped Ver wrote this thread)
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Someone who's really in to statistics should find parameters/method to weigh to properly measure balance instead of this useless bullshit.
poor statistics makes for a poor conclusions (however vague it may be).
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TvZ is sitting at around a 40% win rate for T, that seems terrible enough to justify an outcry and hell, I'm surprised there isn't even more bitching than there currently is.
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On December 20 2012 04:23 JKM wrote: Someone who's really in to statistics should find parameters/method to weigh to properly measure balance instead of this useless bullshit.
poor statistics makes for a poor conclusions (however vague it may be).
Khaldor (like stated a few times in the comments) is NOT trying to say that means the game is balanced. He rather means that every race can win tournaments, and so far the winning have been fairly equal. Does that mean the game is balance? Not necessary but it means it's not as bad as many people try to make it look like.
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On December 20 2012 04:52 crbox wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2012 04:23 JKM wrote: Someone who's really in to statistics should find parameters/method to weigh to properly measure balance instead of this useless bullshit.
poor statistics makes for a poor conclusions (however vague it may be). Khaldor (like stated a few times in the comments) is NOT trying to say that means the game is balanced. He rather means that every race can win tournaments, and so far the winning have been fairly equal. Does that mean the game is balance? Not necessary but it means it's not as bad as many people try to make it look like.
And the Cleveland Cavaliers have made the playoffs 80% of the time in the last 5 years. They're not as bad as people make them out to be.
As demonstrated above, when you take an aggregate statistic over a period of changes, it gives you no information about the current state. Nobody is arguing that the game is imbalanced in aggregate over the last year, they're arguing that it's imbalanced now. The argument Khaldor is making makes little sense.
P.S. I love your casting Khaldor, no disrespect intended.
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Tournament results should not even be mentioned in the same sentence with game balance.
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On December 19 2012 17:03 Rowrin wrote: You can spin statistics to say anything, you really have to dive into how the statistics were taken before you make assumptions, kinda like what opterown said.
Thats true, but every statistics has to say something. The Graphs on the Lings of Liberty thread for example say very strongly that Korean Terrans do something better than Foreign Terrans, also it says that Foreigner Zerg & Protoss had more success against Korean Terrans than Foreign Terrans, and/or it said that out of the 3 races in Korea, Terran lost the most against Foreign Zerg & Protoss. It was designed to show this in a probably Biased way but if those graphs are true and not falsified it does raise some questions.
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Blizzard had 3 balance updates in 2012. The statistics reflect a constantly altered game state.
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At what point do tournament results cease to matter? Extreme example, but say that MVP is responsible for 8 out of 8 terran tournament wins but the zerg and toss wins are spread across many players. If only a small pct of one race are successful (no foreigners and handful of koreans) while several foreigners and a number of koreans are winning with other races, I would think that should affect how you interpret said tournament results...
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Even if the game is perfectly balanced (which I don't think it is even close to atm) I think a lot of people 'whine' about how the games play out, terran/zerg have to get way ahead/win before zerg gets there super army and normally wins (not always)
This seems like a pretty pointless way to look at balance tho, a year in sc2 is to long to look at (3-6months max imo)
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Try posting what the top4 in most tournamenst consist of.
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On December 20 2012 05:03 HwangjaeTerran wrote: Tournament results should not even be mentioned in the same sentence with game balance.
i dont know... you cant say that tournament results are completely separate from game balance. they may not be as directly related as some people may think, but they're definitely not separate. i would say your only chance is to look at as much as you can before deciding wether the game is balanced or not, and besides, balance arguments suck no matter what you do
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On December 19 2012 16:46 Insoleet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 19 2012 16:42 opterown wrote: as i mentioned over there too, premier tournament wins are not exactly the best way to determine balance. why?
Because 2 individuals making it to the final does not mean that the one race who looses is worse than the one who wins and the other way around, it also doesn't mean that the 1 race that didn't make it to the finals is worse than the others. If you'd have a tournament with say very even race distribution initially of 128 players (getting tvx finals out of a tournament with >50% terran does not make terran imba) and get a round of 16 with 7 terran, 7 toss and 2 zerg you could still end up with say tvz finals. If you only look at the finals p is underpowered, and if zerg wins they are actually imba. 2 out of 128/3 is not op.
When you take tournament results as an indicator of balance you need to be very careful, and atleast look at round 8. Finals don't really say anything. Also it's very important to take the initial racial distribution of the tournament into account. What you should look into is winrates for matchups across all pro level games, that says a lot more imo.
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Who cares what the numbers say? The point is every ZvT/P being hive rush vs all-in is boring as crap and makes it seem worse than it is since the X is playing vs the clock and the Z is just turtling. Blizzard should make the game fun first and worry about balance later. 50% win ratios don't matter if no one is playing or watching because the game is boring to play.
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like some said before, you cant just look at the first 2 places and say anything about the balance of the game. you have to consider racial distribution and you also have to take a look at the players that participate in the tournament.
for example when the racial distribution is like 50% zerg 30% protoss and 20% terran it most of the times means that there are a lot of mediocre zerg players and mostly top protoss/terran players, what will falsify the winrates/results.
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i agree, it's also not just not the TOP TOP tier of gamers that matters, a lot of masters/low gm's across all servers are complaining about zerg being the "retard/broken" race. you have to stop look so optimistic on these *balance vs win rate* things.
Also, I hate to say it, but a caster's opinion on balance shouldn't be taken as important as all pro gamers across this game.
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Khaldor simply do not understand statistic. Anyway, the main problem is the game is getting more boring to watch everyday. Jaedong is one of the few zergs that is enjoyable to watch :D
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Premier tournament results are not a good measure of balance because in these tournaments, you have a very few top top players competing for the first place prize. In other words, you have willfully reduced your sample to a very small and therefore more likely inaccurate one. In this situation it is much more likely that a race will appear to be imbalanced simply because there are more better players of that race. The argument which has been made correctly in several threads is that the best way to determine balance is to wait for winrates to flatten to 50% as they always will in a qualifier based system (I'm referring to GSL here) and then checking the distribution of races among those who qualify. In last season's code S there were still far more terrans than any other race, but I do not believe that the winrates have fully equalized yet. Only then will we really be able to get a good read on balance.
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Khaldor has to be a pretty ignorant person if he doesn't realize that the tournament he currently casts (GSL Blizzard Cup) is composed of the winners of the recent most important major tournaments. How many of them are terran? 1. Which means that this tournament has a ten percent terran portion. And the lone terran who is there is not there because of recent achievement but because of his stellar performance in the past. Oh btw he totally bopped his group by winning a single game out of 4 bo3s. Anbody who fails to see that terrans is on the ropes at the moment is completely ignorant. Maybe Khaldor should actually follow the SC2 scene. The balance is horrible for Terran right now and it makes my heart bleed to watch another tournament with terrans getting eliminated this early.
It's funny how people like Khaldor or Day9 as well (mocking the term patchzerg) try to pour oil on troubled water instead of actually critising Blizzard for its inaction and indecisiveness.
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2012_GSL_Blizzard_Cup All of these premier events were played under 1.5.3. but I see none of them won by terran. Where are all the terran winners of premier events post queen patch?
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