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On July 03 2012 15:20 Integra wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 14:29 -TesteR- wrote:On July 03 2012 14:10 pOnarreT wrote:funny no one mentioning about Terran's domination in TvP both Korea and foreign after the whole drama the previous months that Terrans can't win against Protoss. And they aren't doing that bad either against Z, at least not in Korea. Foreign Terran whiners (i repeat, only those whiners, not the brave Terrans) are really the scum of SC2, only knows how to whine and not to try. + Show Spoiler + Yes i think the more pressing issue is the imbalance shown in PvT being so terran favoured. This, PvT is pretty bad atm. They either have to buff Protoss or nerf Terran some more, and given the trend that Terran is starting to win more and more against Zerg they should Nerf Terran some more, since they will be on par with Zerg pretty soon anyway and prolly have a higher win % shortly after that.
Nah, I don't think they need to buff Toss or nerf Terran. I think Terran just needs to have patience and not whine all the time. All the whining during the previous months and still they have a better win rate presently against P.
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The KR numbers just keep getting more balanced. Even the international TvZ numbers are no where near the disparity in foreigner ZvT is no where near as bad as I would have expected from the continuous discussion its received.
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On July 03 2012 12:16 emc wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 12:09 Shiori wrote:On July 03 2012 11:40 emc wrote:On July 03 2012 09:28 DemigodcelpH wrote:In GSL Terran got 35% winrate vs zerg in the month of June. Also I don't believe the TvZ winrate in Korea ~50/50. I'm calling bs on this. I'd like to know who regularly posts this and what games these are derived from.
I finally found out sample size is only 114 for KR TvZ and excludes Code A qualifers, TSL4 qualifiers, VS 996 sample size of international graph. I'm sorry, but I don't believe Koreans adapted to patch perfectly.
Code A + TSL qualifers are 220 sets alone. Good job lying with your statistics. I added TSL and Code A qualifers in from data further in post. Sample size is 334 and TvZ winrate is 41.5% for T. This is why you don't believe everything you hear. A mod should edit that into the OP and then lock the thread. oh no, a 40/60 win rate? my god, the game must be broken. Just look at the graph yourself and see what the winrates used to be last year. It was brutal for Zergs from September to November in 2011. And they got buffed because of it. You are really biased, lol. still waiting on morrow to win a major since his race switch, should be easy right? after spending so much time with zerg and enjoying the free handouts blizzard gives us, should be a free win, no?
He cant since he still plays TvZ
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On July 03 2012 16:56 keglu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 12:16 emc wrote:On July 03 2012 12:09 Shiori wrote:On July 03 2012 11:40 emc wrote:On July 03 2012 09:28 DemigodcelpH wrote:In GSL Terran got 35% winrate vs zerg in the month of June. Also I don't believe the TvZ winrate in Korea ~50/50. I'm calling bs on this. I'd like to know who regularly posts this and what games these are derived from.
I finally found out sample size is only 114 for KR TvZ and excludes Code A qualifers, TSL4 qualifiers, VS 996 sample size of international graph. I'm sorry, but I don't believe Koreans adapted to patch perfectly.
Code A + TSL qualifers are 220 sets alone. Good job lying with your statistics. I added TSL and Code A qualifers in from data further in post. Sample size is 334 and TvZ winrate is 41.5% for T. This is why you don't believe everything you hear. A mod should edit that into the OP and then lock the thread. oh no, a 40/60 win rate? my god, the game must be broken. Just look at the graph yourself and see what the winrates used to be last year. It was brutal for Zergs from September to November in 2011. And they got buffed because of it. You are really biased, lol. still waiting on morrow to win a major since his race switch, should be easy right? after spending so much time with zerg and enjoying the free handouts blizzard gives us, should be a free win, no? He cant since he still plays TvZ
So he choose TvZ because his chances to win are smaller with T?
Interesting.... i should burn my money in order to grow it. Sounds like a solid plan to me.
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On July 03 2012 17:08 Charon1979 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 16:56 keglu wrote:On July 03 2012 12:16 emc wrote:On July 03 2012 12:09 Shiori wrote:On July 03 2012 11:40 emc wrote:On July 03 2012 09:28 DemigodcelpH wrote:In GSL Terran got 35% winrate vs zerg in the month of June. Also I don't believe the TvZ winrate in Korea ~50/50. I'm calling bs on this. I'd like to know who regularly posts this and what games these are derived from.
I finally found out sample size is only 114 for KR TvZ and excludes Code A qualifers, TSL4 qualifiers, VS 996 sample size of international graph. I'm sorry, but I don't believe Koreans adapted to patch perfectly.
Code A + TSL qualifers are 220 sets alone. Good job lying with your statistics. I added TSL and Code A qualifers in from data further in post. Sample size is 334 and TvZ winrate is 41.5% for T. This is why you don't believe everything you hear. A mod should edit that into the OP and then lock the thread. oh no, a 40/60 win rate? my god, the game must be broken. Just look at the graph yourself and see what the winrates used to be last year. It was brutal for Zergs from September to November in 2011. And they got buffed because of it. You are really biased, lol. still waiting on morrow to win a major since his race switch, should be easy right? after spending so much time with zerg and enjoying the free handouts blizzard gives us, should be a free win, no? He cant since he still plays TvZ So he choose TvZ because his chances to win are smaller with T? Interesting.... i should burn my money in order to grow it. Sounds like a solid plan to me.
He chose to play TvZ because he felt ZvZ is too luck based.
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So a luck based MU (which it isnt) is worse than an "unwinnable" MU?
Seems legit
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On July 03 2012 17:14 Charon1979 wrote:
So a luck based MU (which it isnt) is worse than an "unwinnable" MU?
Seems legit
How do you know Morrow thinks TvZ is unwinnable?
My answer was sarcastic to stupid question btw.
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I do feel like Zerg probably has an advantage over every race ATM(larva inject needs to be nerfed), but if you are going to include code A qualfiiers/TSL qualifiers/OSL qualfiers, and you want to remove teamless/amateur koreans from these results, then you have to do this every single month for every MU and not just the months that match your desired result.
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Well as a viewer I dont think TvZ is working as of now. Seems the main argument from Zerg is that Terrans are stupid and can not adept to the game. Okay there might be a solution out there, a bit like X-files, but that kind of argument does obviously not work in the long run. Cause you can keep saying that for 100 years and you will always be right that there might exist a solution. The only real question is how long time we let this continue. After 2 months I see very little that indicated that Terrans are about to solve this. If anything Zerg looks like they are becoming increasingly strong with there new style.
Up until recently I actually thought that early bio pressure might be a solution against 6 queen opening Zerg. Then I watched Coca play against Heart in EG Master tournament, well let just say that Coca proved me wrong. Heart pushed with about 6 marines and 3 marauders, Coca used 4 Queens only and had about 3-4 transfuses saved up. Lost one queen, Heart lost everything. Thanks for the gift Heart, you can leave now if you like.
To just go greedy is also a very questionable solution. First Zerg has an easy time scouting with the new overlord change, if Zerg get a sniff of what Terran does when he goes directly into 3 base.. well the Terran is in major trouble like the Zikt-Demuslim game. Even if this does not occur and both Terran and Zerg goes into late game it is very hard for Terran. If the Terran goes into full macro mode there is very little stopping the creep from going everywhere. Seen several TvZ matches where the creep covers more the 50% of the available expansions around the 13-15 min mark. So far I have never seen a Terran win from this point against 6 queen build. Not sure what they win rate is for Zerg from that point but it got be pretty ridicules.
Idra suggested for Terran to be defensive at this point but I find that quite questionable. Saw Cloud try that against Haypro in TSL4 qualifier on metropolis. Well sure he was defensive on 5 base, got a nice 200 mech army to. To bad there was creep EVERYWHERE and Haypro had the remaining 7-9 bases. Complete map control, add 50 spore/spinecrawlers into the mix. Cloud did not stand a chance. Could not move anywhere, finally tried to deny one of Haypros bases. Fought one creep, lost about 50 supply. GG.
On top of this has Zerg an advantaged late game from the beginning all the way back since the snipe nerf. Terran need to keep a constant look on what Zerg is doing which can quickly go from one tech to another. If they miss it and produce the wrong counter unit for only 2-3 minutes they are in a really bad spot. If they mix it up and Zerg goes to one of the extremes they are also most likely dead. This is specially the case after an even trade fight, terrans better find out what Zerg is producing pretty damn quick. I am surprised that it is only so recently that we have seen Zerg switch between tech more frequently in late game, seems like an obvious choice once you get a large economy to back it up.
Additionally I think it is funny that so few are even mentioning the overlord speed change, that is a quite substantial buff, it is just that it is so over shadowed by the queen range issue that is not even discussed x)
Course there are some options, Terran does obviously still win TvZ sometimes. Morrow did something interesting against some Terran where he put 2 offensive bunkers between the natural and third on Antiga Shipyard (to prevent the third from being taken + no drone could move out) against 6 queen opening. He actually lost that match eventually but that was among the more interesting "kind" of working solutions I have seen so far. Would love to hear what Morrow think about TvZ by the way ^^ The mass ghost/nuke drops which MMA did against Stephano in IPL4 is another option, seen very few games with that tactic though. Not exactly a hard counter tactic, imho.
If I was playing terran I would be quite lost now, If had SC2 for a living on top of that I would probably have a nervous breakdown soon.
No if you feel for commenting this I would love if the letters GSL was not part of that message ^^. Yes Terran did pretty well, in one round of one tournament. I dont think there ever has been so many players pointing out how fantastic one race did in the round of 32 in a tournament before this round of GSL.
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On July 03 2012 17:14 Charon1979 wrote:
So a luck based MU (which it isnt) is worse than an "unwinnable" MU?
Seems legit
That was well over a year ago, things change and often.
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i think i have an idea that could show more accurate winrates
1) make a table showing all the TvZ games, terran names on left, zerg names on right. then a Z or T next to it indicating terran or zerg win
2) then in a second table list all the names of Z and T players. each player starts with 200 points. do a instant calculation with the first table every time a player beat another player he takes 10 of his points.
3) do calculations in number 2 and it means the player who won more than he lost will have more points, and many players will have less points if they loss too much.
4) i guess an easier way to do it is just take each players wins and losses in TvZ and if they have 10 more wins they get +100 points or if they have 5 more losses than wins they get -50 points. This should create the same final calculations as number 2 either way you do it
5) now in the second table you should have a list of all players with a point score next to their name showing some kind of skill point rating
6) next you can go BACK to the first table, and fill in all the TvZ games with the players skill point ratings next to their names
7) next you can take all the games that are played between people with relatively equal skill level (such as maybe all games between players that have skill ratings within 40 points of eachother) and find the TvZ winrate in those games where players were within 40 skill points of eachother. this 40 skill point amount would create a range of 80 skill points (40 below and above a player) to where his TvZ games actually count towards the winrate
this is just an idea off the top of my head. theres gotta be some better way to represent these winrates to show skill of players
actually, come to think of it, an even EASIER way to do what i described above is to simply go into the MASTER LEAGUE of each server and count the winrates in the master league of each player in TvZ. however sadly i think this is almost impossible because you cannot click someones name and get their TvZ winrate, you only get their overall winrate.
because the master league represents the top 2% of players, it should always mean that represents a pool of players that are equal in relative skill like my 7 stage idea. So all you need to do is just go into the master league, and somehow find each players winrates, average them out, and boom, youve got a great statistic
EDIT: however i think this may be impossible because like i said, you cant do this with each terrans winrate. no. you need each terrans TVZ winrate. and the ladder doesnt let you look at someones tvz winrate.
some might say master league balance doesnt represent top level balance, however these are the top2% of players and id think there must be some extension of the balance from masters into the pro level maybe not completely mirroring it but its gotta at least give some good clues on the real situation
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Do you know why the Koreans still have a decent TvZ winrate? Because they are mroe aggressive and allin harder and more often.
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OP's own analysis about qualifiers is methodologically extremely flawed. If you want to count qualifiers to compare winrates with previous months, you have to go back and include tournament qualifying rounds for every single month. As another post mentioned, you can't cherry pick when to include and discuss winrates from qualifiers, you have to be consistant about where your data comes from.
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On July 03 2012 17:49 Stiluz wrote:
OP's own analysis about qualifiers is methodologically extremely flawed. If you want to count qualifiers to compare winrates with previous months, you have to go back and include tournament qualifying rounds for every single month. As another post mentioned, you can't cherry pick when to include and discuss winrates from qualifiers, you have to be consistant about where your data comes from.
Or we can start now so for once we can have singifcant amount of data to jugde anything (500 games instead of 100). Who cares about previous data, you can't draw any conlusion on winrates changing over 10-20% each month.
Also TSL, OSL qualifiers werent played before, MLG im not sure.
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Seriously don't know how TvZ looks like that in Korea...
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On July 03 2012 18:09 keglu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 17:49 Stiluz wrote:
OP's own analysis about qualifiers is methodologically extremely flawed. If you want to count qualifiers to compare winrates with previous months, you have to go back and include tournament qualifying rounds for every single month. As another post mentioned, you can't cherry pick when to include and discuss winrates from qualifiers, you have to be consistant about where your data comes from. Or we can start now so for once we can have singifcant amount of data to jugde anything (500 games instead of 100). Who cares about previous data, you can't draw any conlusion on winrates changing over 10-20% each month. Also TSL, OSL qualifiers werent played before, MLG im not sure.
And neither can you change the rules of something in the middle of series, your whole series is broken that way.
Who knows what would have happened if the code A qualifiers for instance always got counted.
It's kinda silly that people want to include qualifiers that were never included just to proof their point.
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June is nothing. Wait till July as zergs are just leaning how to abuse queen openings. I expect protoss to crash and burn along with terran as they start doing roach max drops ala symbol.
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On July 03 2012 18:18 Assirra wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 18:09 keglu wrote:On July 03 2012 17:49 Stiluz wrote:
OP's own analysis about qualifiers is methodologically extremely flawed. If you want to count qualifiers to compare winrates with previous months, you have to go back and include tournament qualifying rounds for every single month. As another post mentioned, you can't cherry pick when to include and discuss winrates from qualifiers, you have to be consistant about where your data comes from. Or we can start now so for once we can have singifcant amount of data to jugde anything (500 games instead of 100). Who cares about previous data, you can't draw any conlusion on winrates changing over 10-20% each month. Also TSL, OSL qualifiers werent played before, MLG im not sure. And neither can you change the rules of something in the middle of series, your whole series is broken that way. Who knows what would have happened if the code A qualifiers for instance always got counted. It's kinda silly that people want to include qualifiers that were never included just to proof their point.
Again i dont care about series, i care about current state of the game and having reliable data. Till know i never took Korean graph seriously because of sample size so let it be. We have chance to have reliable graph in future if we add all this data.
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And it wont be counted in next month graph like it didnt happen. We had few days ago huge OSL qualifier with every Korean pro participating, wont be counted either.
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EPT
