I've gone 44 games above the diamond threshold and haven't been promoted. Is this pretty typical as it is struggling to determine which division I should be placed in.
http://imgur.com/v7tUP
Forum Index > SC2 General |
meursault
United States59 Posts
July 02 2012 06:23 GMT
#1121
I've gone 44 games above the diamond threshold and haven't been promoted. Is this pretty typical as it is struggling to determine which division I should be placed in. http://imgur.com/v7tUP | ||
fapy
Australia52 Posts
July 02 2012 07:27 GMT
#1122
On July 02 2012 14:20 InfCereal wrote: Show nested quote + On July 02 2012 12:40 Aristotle7 wrote: On July 02 2012 12:29 InfCereal wrote: Hey Skeldark, my MMR just went down after a win, and then added an extra point at the end going back up. The finetune option didn't change it. Isn't MMR gets calculated based on who you are playing against? So if the system decided to match you up versus a lower MMR despite previous win, nothing you can do, right? Yes, but your MMR should never drop on a win. From the FAQs My graph is wrong! i won a game and lost points or lost a game and got points! Its not wrong. Every point have a deviation. So you dont see your exact mmr., in most case this deviation is +-24. This explains the local mistakes. This kind of mistakes dont affect the graph. It stay local. | ||
skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
July 02 2012 10:03 GMT
#1123
On July 01 2012 14:55 andrewSC23 wrote: Nothing in Help system messages.. And it says trigger running in the log when I start MMR Tool but it shows nothing as I am laddering.. Not mac! testet it and mac works fine. It must be the save of the replays. Sc2gear dont find the replay folder and dont trigger me . check the settings and the folder. On July 02 2012 12:29 InfCereal wrote: Hey Skeldark, my MMR just went down after a win, and then added an extra point at the end going back up. The finetune option didn't change it. I finetune games in the middle e.g. A B C. I look if i can adjust B depending on A and C. I could add an extra rule for the last game. In theories we even know how much you loose win if we know the opponent mmr. We know the real skill algorithm they use by now. ( there are not many out there and it was clear blizzard dont invent the wheel new...) On July 02 2012 16:27 fapy wrote: Show nested quote + On July 02 2012 14:20 InfCereal wrote: On July 02 2012 12:40 Aristotle7 wrote: On July 02 2012 12:29 InfCereal wrote: Hey Skeldark, my MMR just went down after a win, and then added an extra point at the end going back up. The finetune option didn't change it. Isn't MMR gets calculated based on who you are playing against? So if the system decided to match you up versus a lower MMR despite previous win, nothing you can do, right? Yes, but your MMR should never drop on a win. From the FAQs My graph is wrong! i won a game and lost points or lost a game and got points! Its not wrong. Every point have a deviation. So you dont see your exact mmr., in most case this deviation is +-24. This explains the local mistakes. This kind of mistakes dont affect the graph. It stay local. InfCereal test a new version that includes an finetuner, that try to correct this mistakes. However he can not always do that. He try to correct it if he finds a mistake on both sites. E.g. A ( 1500) WIN --- B 1499 (WIN) - 1530 (LOOSE) I see that the WIN of -1 from A-B is to small The WIn from B-C 31 is too big So i can correct B to 1515 without problems because its in his range of +-24 and it will not affect the other points. A 1500 WIN B 1499 LOOSE C 1480 In this case the mistake is not so easy Its A to high B to fine and C to low Or A fine B to low C to low or A to high B to high C fine In such a case i will not correct to dont make follow up mistakes. On July 02 2012 15:23 meursault wrote: I really like what you're doing with this tool. I hope blizzard doesn't hide even more information and make this impossible in patch 1.5 I've gone 44 games above the diamond threshold and haven't been promoted. Is this pretty typical as it is struggling to determine which division I should be placed in. http://imgur.com/v7tUP I think the "average" of the promotion is way more complicated than moving avg. The hole server population follows gauss. But your skill do so too. Some people have a very small range. Means they are very consistent. Others are very inconsistent. To compare them the skill alg. allways use the lowest 2% skill of each player. So two guys on 1500 can have a total diffrent range above it. ![]() In this example natalia have a skill of 5 eric of 22. This 2 are extrema. In real they are not so different. I can not know this and its possible this one affects the promotion. In the end its not important. You are above the line = you have "diamond skill"- If you have the icon or not. On July 02 2012 15:23 meursault wrote: I really like what you're doing with this tool. I hope blizzard doesn't hide even more information and make this impossible in patch 1.5 Possible. But the main reason they invented the system this way is to hide this data from the average user. the average user is not her e on tl and download skill tracking tools. In the end they can not build their game against the community forever. I think they start to understand that they dont know better than we do what we want. or perhaps i just hope... | ||
mugenfr
France3 Posts
July 02 2012 11:58 GMT
#1124
After more than 5 games, the count is together 0. No data game... Log : + Show Spoiler + 12:52:21 Game Start detected 12:53:4 Webgrabber: Player false 12:53:4 No Profile, skip 12:53:4 Webgrabber: Opponent false 12:53:4 PRE-Trigger done Do I forget something ( Auto save replayes,profile, firewall, installation are ok) ? | ||
skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
July 02 2012 12:05 GMT
#1125
On July 02 2012 20:58 mugenfr wrote: Hi, After more than 5 games, the count is together 0. No data game... Log : + Show Spoiler + 12:52:21 Game Start detected 12:53:4 Webgrabber: Player false 12:53:4 No Profile, skip 12:53:4 Webgrabber: Opponent false 12:53:4 PRE-Trigger done Do I forget something ( Auto save replayes,profile, firewall, installation are ok) ? Thtas the pretrigger. I dont see a posttrigger running. means the replay is not saved. check the path of sc2gear and if he saves the replay. also whats your profile the webgrabber failed in your case | ||
mugenfr
France3 Posts
July 02 2012 14:03 GMT
#1126
For example in folder sc2gears file 2012-07-02 13-35-44 MD5_fhiIDlv2V7$tyV6$cC7TuT.SC2Replay the format of the file is good? | ||
skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
July 02 2012 14:05 GMT
#1127
On July 02 2012 23:03 mugenfr wrote: thanks for your answer but the replay saved. For example in folder sc2gears file 2012-07-02 13-35-44 MD5_fhiIDlv2V7$tyV6$cC7TuT.SC2Replay the format of the file is good? Does you see "post trigger running " diect after a game in white blinking text? and there is not posttrigger text in the log at all? If no the tool is not triggered by sc2gear. That normaly only happens if he dont save the replay. So you hear the "replay saved" sound after the ladder game? | ||
mugenfr
France3 Posts
July 02 2012 14:36 GMT
#1128
log : + Show Spoiler + 15:55:6 MMR-Stats 4.9 15:55:6 --------INIT START-------- 15:55:6 OK Encoding: UTF-8 is avalable on this System 15:55:6 OK Loading DB 15:55 ![]() 15:55 ![]() 15:55 ![]() 15:55 ![]() 15:55 ![]() 15:55 ![]() 15:55:10 OK: Program is up to date 15:55:10 --------INIT END-------- 16:20:24 -------------------------- 16:20:24 Game Start detected 16:21:7 Webgrabber: Player false 16:21:7 No Profile, skip 16:21:7 Webgrabber: Opponent false 16:21:7 PRE-Trigger done I don't understand... | ||
skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
July 02 2012 14:53 GMT
#1129
On July 02 2012 23:36 mugenfr wrote: Yes i heard "replay saved" sound after the game. The file is saved but i don't see "post trigger running ". log : + Show Spoiler + 15:55:6 MMR-Stats 4.9 15:55:6 --------INIT START-------- 15:55:6 OK Encoding: UTF-8 is avalable on this System 15:55:6 OK Loading DB 15:55 ![]() 15:55 ![]() 15:55 ![]() 15:55 ![]() 15:55 ![]() 15:55 ![]() 15:55:10 OK: Program is up to date 15:55:10 --------INIT END-------- 16:20:24 -------------------------- 16:20:24 Game Start detected 16:21:7 Webgrabber: Player false 16:21:7 No Profile, skip 16:21:7 Webgrabber: Opponent false 16:21:7 PRE-Trigger done I don't understand... and you play a 1 vs 1 ladder game? your webgrabber failes every time tho. Whats your profile? | ||
Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
July 02 2012 14:53 GMT
#1130
Still loving this tool btw, thank you for the hard work and constant updates. Now I just need to figure out if 2400 mmr would be mid masters or high masters, seeing as the higher you go the less the population. | ||
skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
July 02 2012 14:56 GMT
#1131
On July 02 2012 23:53 Clarity_nl wrote: I never figured out... why are some of the player dots fully blue and some have a white center? Still loving this tool btw, thank you for the hard work and constant updates. Now I just need to figure out if 2400 mmr would be mid masters or high masters, seeing as the higher you go the less the population. blue WIN, white Loose ^^ click population link. 2400 is in the middle of master. But its moving exponential so: Mid master on points High master over population ( better than 2/3 of master player) | ||
Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
July 02 2012 15:36 GMT
#1132
On July 02 2012 23:56 skeldark wrote: Show nested quote + On July 02 2012 23:53 Clarity_nl wrote: I never figured out... why are some of the player dots fully blue and some have a white center? Still loving this tool btw, thank you for the hard work and constant updates. Now I just need to figure out if 2400 mmr would be mid masters or high masters, seeing as the higher you go the less the population. blue WIN, white Loose ^^ click population link. 2400 is in the middle of master. But its moving exponential so: Mid master on points High master over population ( better than 2/3 of master player) Thanks for the quick and accurate answer. Not sure how I didn't see the win/lose thing xD Much appreciated. Couple days back I planned on donating but saw the message so it went to doctors without borders. =] | ||
skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
July 02 2012 15:41 GMT
#1133
On July 03 2012 00:36 Clarity_nl wrote: Show nested quote + On July 02 2012 23:56 skeldark wrote: On July 02 2012 23:53 Clarity_nl wrote: I never figured out... why are some of the player dots fully blue and some have a white center? Still loving this tool btw, thank you for the hard work and constant updates. Now I just need to figure out if 2400 mmr would be mid masters or high masters, seeing as the higher you go the less the population. blue WIN, white Loose ^^ click population link. 2400 is in the middle of master. But its moving exponential so: Mid master on points High master over population ( better than 2/3 of master player) Thanks for the quick and accurate answer. Not sure how I didn't see the win/lose thing xD Much appreciated. Couple days back I planned on donating but saw the message so it went to doctors without borders. =] thx alot. Better investment than me spending it on cigarettes and coffee^^ | ||
korona
1098 Posts
July 02 2012 23:47 GMT
#1134
On June 29 2012 22:11 korona wrote: Show nested quote + On June 28 2012 22:09 skeldark wrote: 4.7 out -better mac support -timeline for bad games fixed -dataeditor changed There seems to be bug in 4.7 regarding division names. Previously all division names were shown in lowercase in 'log' dialogs 'analyse' tab. Now after 4.7 all new data uses mixed case regarding division names (both alg A & F+ data). Alg A thinks I have switched division from 'all lowercase' to 'All Lowercase'. Also as this is diamond division it then proceeds to calculate tiers for both separately. Edit: I had played 3 games after 4.7. Now as I closed and then restarted sc2gears also data for 2 of those games disappeared from the MMR plugin. Now only lowercase division names remain and alg A sees only one division. Edit 2: I checked the data files. log.txt contained the games that disappeared after sc2gears restart. Also games.dat had been updated just after those two missing games. Also worth to mention the only game that did not go missing from yesterday's session was game # 200 for that account, which could imply some kind of border value problem too. Edit 3: Now I have played two games more. Again I am seeing mixed case division names and alg A thinks I have switched to new division (from lowered cased to mixed case). I closed the sc2gears and restarted it. The 2 new games disappeared from mmr plugin again. The games.dat once again had been updated just after the games. Now I will take backup copies from the data files and switch back to v.4.6. (fingers crossed that the data files are compatible). I can send the data files if needed as PM. Edit 4: Same thing is happening with v. 4.6. On June 30 2012 04:18 skeldark wrote: @korona i dont get it i save division names only in lower case. lets see what next update makes out of it V 4.9 fixed the data file loading issue, but the mixed case division name issue continues. But now a likely reason can be deducted as new data can once again be loaded from games.dat. When a new match has been played the post-trigger fetches the match info from the profile web pages. But at this point it seems that the division name is stored in mixed case into MMR plugin's memory. And thus the alg a & f would think the division has been changed from 'all lowercase' to 'All Lowercase'. But if sc2gears is restarted after this match, then the correct data is loaded from the games.dat in lowercase and alg A & F sees only one division. This would suggest that the post-trigger does not convert the division names immediately to lowercase, but the conversion is done when the data is stored into the games.dat. And thus when its loaded from the games.dat everything is fine. I will PM you (skeldark) an example of my 'analyse' tab contents. It would also be nice if the human readable player info regarding the match results would be available from the log file like before: V 4.9 shows match data in this manner: + Show Spoiler + 23:4:58 POSTPLAYER 1: mmr.data.Player@54266750 23:4:58 POSTPLAYER 2: mmr.data.Player@2548e059 Older versions showed match data regarding both the player & his opponent in this manner (some randomly chosen opponent taken from the game log file): + Show Spoiler + --- PLAYERSTART VALID: true --- id: 1008084 playerlink: http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/1008084/1/mmMenace/ server: EU league: diamond division_name: Stukov Sigma gamedate: 16/6/2012 mapname: Tal'darim Altar LE totalbonuspool: 46 Wins: 5 Looses: -9999 points: 95 bonus: 20 change_points: -11 adjusted_points: 69 PLAYEREND | ||
xxgeffxx
United States119 Posts
July 02 2012 23:59 GMT
#1135
Here is my profile: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2849498/1/xxgeffxx/ladder/lastseason/leagues 440 wins alone, I'd guess to at least 200 losses to compensate otherwise I would've went into gold at one point | ||
skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
July 03 2012 00:07 GMT
#1136
On July 03 2012 08:47 korona wrote: Show nested quote + On June 29 2012 22:11 korona wrote: On June 28 2012 22:09 skeldark wrote: 4.7 out -better mac support -timeline for bad games fixed -dataeditor changed There seems to be bug in 4.7 regarding division names. Previously all division names were shown in lowercase in 'log' dialogs 'analyse' tab. Now after 4.7 all new data uses mixed case regarding division names (both alg A & F+ data). Alg A thinks I have switched division from 'all lowercase' to 'All Lowercase'. Also as this is diamond division it then proceeds to calculate tiers for both separately. Edit: I had played 3 games after 4.7. Now as I closed and then restarted sc2gears also data for 2 of those games disappeared from the MMR plugin. Now only lowercase division names remain and alg A sees only one division. Edit 2: I checked the data files. log.txt contained the games that disappeared after sc2gears restart. Also games.dat had been updated just after those two missing games. Also worth to mention the only game that did not go missing from yesterday's session was game # 200 for that account, which could imply some kind of border value problem too. Edit 3: Now I have played two games more. Again I am seeing mixed case division names and alg A thinks I have switched to new division (from lowered cased to mixed case). I closed the sc2gears and restarted it. The 2 new games disappeared from mmr plugin again. The games.dat once again had been updated just after the games. Now I will take backup copies from the data files and switch back to v.4.6. (fingers crossed that the data files are compatible). I can send the data files if needed as PM. Edit 4: Same thing is happening with v. 4.6. Show nested quote + On June 30 2012 04:18 skeldark wrote: @korona i dont get it i save division names only in lower case. lets see what next update makes out of it V 4.9 fixed the data file loading issue, but the mixed case division name issue continues. But now a likely reason can be deducted as new data can once again be loaded from games.dat. When a new match has been played the post-trigger fetches the match info from the profile web pages. But at this point it seems that the division name is stored in mixed case into MMR plugin's memory. And thus the alg a & f would think the division has been changed from 'all lowercase' to 'All Lowercase'. But if sc2gears is restarted after this match, then the correct data is loaded from the games.dat in lowercase and alg A & F sees only one division. This would suggest that the post-trigger does not convert the division names immediately to lowercase, but the conversion is done when the data is stored into the games.dat. And thus when its loaded from the games.dat everything is fine. I will PM you (skeldark) an example of my 'analyse' tab contents. It would also be nice if the human readable player info regarding the match results would be available from the log file like before: V 4.9 shows match data in this manner: + Show Spoiler + 23:4:58 POSTPLAYER 1: mmr.data.Player@54266750 23:4:58 POSTPLAYER 2: mmr.data.Player@2548e059 Older versions showed match data regarding both the player & his opponent in this manner (some randomly chosen opponent taken from the game log file): + Show Spoiler + --- PLAYERSTART VALID: true --- id: 1008084 playerlink: http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/1008084/1/mmMenace/ server: EU league: diamond division_name: Stukov Sigma gamedate: 16/6/2012 mapname: Tal'darim Altar LE totalbonuspool: 46 Wins: 5 Looses: -9999 points: 95 bonus: 20 change_points: -11 adjusted_points: 69 PLAYEREND Thx a lot. I see the problem. I dont want to mix cases. This just lead to more mistake later. Its save, load and generated now in lowercase. Player output is already fixed and comes with 5.0 On July 03 2012 08:59 xxgeffxx wrote: autorage won season 7 withjust 400 games? wtf I coulda sworn I had the MMR tool get in the 600s at one point(until I downloaded yesterday the newest version where it started fresh), I was worker rushing in bronze like there was no tomorrow and got promoted and demoted on silver bronze at least 6 times(each or "round trip"). Did all my data not count because I didn't always keep up with the versions? Just how many of my games did you end up getting? Here is my profile: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2849498/1/xxgeffxx/ladder/lastseason/leagues 440 wins alone, I'd guess to at least 200 losses to compensate otherwise I would've went into gold at one point Ah, there you is the famous autorage ![]() We had to delete a lot of games on session 7 because some version had bugs, that could screw the data. In season 8 i collected all data. Dont know how many i have at the moment. Will check later Ah you changed nickname. My Analyser don't like that... Found a new bug that let more games look bad than needed. Also finished the finetuner and added more filter. Will upload 5.0 tomorrow | ||
andrewSC23
United States25 Posts
July 03 2012 02:47 GMT
#1137
On July 02 2012 19:03 skeldark wrote: Show nested quote + On July 01 2012 14:55 andrewSC23 wrote: Nothing in Help system messages.. And it says trigger running in the log when I start MMR Tool but it shows nothing as I am laddering.. Not mac! testet it and mac works fine. It must be the save of the replays. Sc2gear dont find the replay folder and dont trigger me . check the settings and the folder. Show nested quote + On July 02 2012 12:29 InfCereal wrote: Hey Skeldark, my MMR just went down after a win, and then added an extra point at the end going back up. The finetune option didn't change it. I finetune games in the middle e.g. A B C. I look if i can adjust B depending on A and C. I could add an extra rule for the last game. In theories we even know how much you loose win if we know the opponent mmr. We know the real skill algorithm they use by now. ( there are not many out there and it was clear blizzard dont invent the wheel new...) Show nested quote + On July 02 2012 16:27 fapy wrote: On July 02 2012 14:20 InfCereal wrote: On July 02 2012 12:40 Aristotle7 wrote: On July 02 2012 12:29 InfCereal wrote: Hey Skeldark, my MMR just went down after a win, and then added an extra point at the end going back up. The finetune option didn't change it. Isn't MMR gets calculated based on who you are playing against? So if the system decided to match you up versus a lower MMR despite previous win, nothing you can do, right? Yes, but your MMR should never drop on a win. From the FAQs My graph is wrong! i won a game and lost points or lost a game and got points! Its not wrong. Every point have a deviation. So you dont see your exact mmr., in most case this deviation is +-24. This explains the local mistakes. This kind of mistakes dont affect the graph. It stay local. InfCereal test a new version that includes an finetuner, that try to correct this mistakes. However he can not always do that. He try to correct it if he finds a mistake on both sites. E.g. A ( 1500) WIN --- B 1499 (WIN) - 1530 (LOOSE) I see that the WIN of -1 from A-B is to small The WIn from B-C 31 is too big So i can correct B to 1515 without problems because its in his range of +-24 and it will not affect the other points. A 1500 WIN B 1499 LOOSE C 1480 In this case the mistake is not so easy Its A to high B to fine and C to low Or A fine B to low C to low or A to high B to high C fine In such a case i will not correct to dont make follow up mistakes. Show nested quote + On July 02 2012 15:23 meursault wrote: I really like what you're doing with this tool. I hope blizzard doesn't hide even more information and make this impossible in patch 1.5 I've gone 44 games above the diamond threshold and haven't been promoted. Is this pretty typical as it is struggling to determine which division I should be placed in. http://imgur.com/v7tUP I think the "average" of the promotion is way more complicated than moving avg. The hole server population follows gauss. But your skill do so too. Some people have a very small range. Means they are very consistent. Others are very inconsistent. To compare them the skill alg. allways use the lowest 2% skill of each player. So two guys on 1500 can have a total diffrent range above it. ![]() In this example natalia have a skill of 5 eric of 22. This 2 are extrema. In real they are not so different. I can not know this and its possible this one affects the promotion. In the end its not important. You are above the line = you have "diamond skill"- If you have the icon or not. Show nested quote + On July 02 2012 15:23 meursault wrote: I really like what you're doing with this tool. I hope blizzard doesn't hide even more information and make this impossible in patch 1.5 Possible. But the main reason they invented the system this way is to hide this data from the average user. the average user is not her e on tl and download skill tracking tools. In the end they can not build their game against the community forever. I think they start to understand that they dont know better than we do what we want. or perhaps i just hope... This is what my log says when I start MMR Tools. When I ladder it doesn't change, although I just rerouted the folder in settings in SC2 gears on my mac to the actual folder where all my replays are. + Show Spoiler + 22:46:10 MMR-Stats 4.9 22:46:10 --------INIT START-------- 22:46:10 OK Encoding: UTF-8 is avalable on this System 22:46:10 OK Loading DB 22:46:12 OK DB up to date! 22:46:12 OK Settings loaded! 22:46:12 OK Gamedata: 0 Games loaded. 22:46:12 Mac-OS detected! 22:46:12 Disable Memoryreader... 22:46:12 Disable Gameobserver.... 22:46:12 OK Triggers ready! 22:46:12 OK Timeclient: Systemtime offset: 0 sec 22:46:13 OK: Program is up to date 22:46:13 --------INIT END-------- | ||
skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
July 03 2012 02:54 GMT
#1138
On July 03 2012 11:47 andrewSC23 wrote: Show nested quote + On July 02 2012 19:03 skeldark wrote: On July 01 2012 14:55 andrewSC23 wrote: Nothing in Help system messages.. And it says trigger running in the log when I start MMR Tool but it shows nothing as I am laddering.. Not mac! testet it and mac works fine. It must be the save of the replays. Sc2gear dont find the replay folder and dont trigger me . check the settings and the folder. On July 02 2012 12:29 InfCereal wrote: Hey Skeldark, my MMR just went down after a win, and then added an extra point at the end going back up. The finetune option didn't change it. I finetune games in the middle e.g. A B C. I look if i can adjust B depending on A and C. I could add an extra rule for the last game. In theories we even know how much you loose win if we know the opponent mmr. We know the real skill algorithm they use by now. ( there are not many out there and it was clear blizzard dont invent the wheel new...) On July 02 2012 16:27 fapy wrote: On July 02 2012 14:20 InfCereal wrote: On July 02 2012 12:40 Aristotle7 wrote: On July 02 2012 12:29 InfCereal wrote: Hey Skeldark, my MMR just went down after a win, and then added an extra point at the end going back up. The finetune option didn't change it. Isn't MMR gets calculated based on who you are playing against? So if the system decided to match you up versus a lower MMR despite previous win, nothing you can do, right? Yes, but your MMR should never drop on a win. From the FAQs My graph is wrong! i won a game and lost points or lost a game and got points! Its not wrong. Every point have a deviation. So you dont see your exact mmr., in most case this deviation is +-24. This explains the local mistakes. This kind of mistakes dont affect the graph. It stay local. InfCereal test a new version that includes an finetuner, that try to correct this mistakes. However he can not always do that. He try to correct it if he finds a mistake on both sites. E.g. A ( 1500) WIN --- B 1499 (WIN) - 1530 (LOOSE) I see that the WIN of -1 from A-B is to small The WIn from B-C 31 is too big So i can correct B to 1515 without problems because its in his range of +-24 and it will not affect the other points. A 1500 WIN B 1499 LOOSE C 1480 In this case the mistake is not so easy Its A to high B to fine and C to low Or A fine B to low C to low or A to high B to high C fine In such a case i will not correct to dont make follow up mistakes. On July 02 2012 15:23 meursault wrote: I really like what you're doing with this tool. I hope blizzard doesn't hide even more information and make this impossible in patch 1.5 I've gone 44 games above the diamond threshold and haven't been promoted. Is this pretty typical as it is struggling to determine which division I should be placed in. http://imgur.com/v7tUP I think the "average" of the promotion is way more complicated than moving avg. The hole server population follows gauss. But your skill do so too. Some people have a very small range. Means they are very consistent. Others are very inconsistent. To compare them the skill alg. allways use the lowest 2% skill of each player. So two guys on 1500 can have a total diffrent range above it. ![]() In this example natalia have a skill of 5 eric of 22. This 2 are extrema. In real they are not so different. I can not know this and its possible this one affects the promotion. In the end its not important. You are above the line = you have "diamond skill"- If you have the icon or not. On July 02 2012 15:23 meursault wrote: I really like what you're doing with this tool. I hope blizzard doesn't hide even more information and make this impossible in patch 1.5 Possible. But the main reason they invented the system this way is to hide this data from the average user. the average user is not her e on tl and download skill tracking tools. In the end they can not build their game against the community forever. I think they start to understand that they dont know better than we do what we want. or perhaps i just hope... This is what my log says when I start MMR Tools. When I ladder it doesn't change, although I just rerouted the folder in settings in SC2 gears on my mac to the actual folder where all my replays are. + Show Spoiler + 22:46:10 MMR-Stats 4.9 22:46:10 --------INIT START-------- 22:46:10 OK Encoding: UTF-8 is avalable on this System 22:46:10 OK Loading DB 22:46:12 OK DB up to date! 22:46:12 OK Settings loaded! 22:46:12 OK Gamedata: 0 Games loaded. 22:46:12 Mac-OS detected! 22:46:12 Disable Memoryreader... 22:46:12 Disable Gameobserver.... 22:46:12 OK Triggers ready! 22:46:12 OK Timeclient: Systemtime offset: 0 sec 22:46:13 OK: Program is up to date 22:46:13 --------INIT END-------- /users/[username]/Library/Application Support/Blizzard/StarCraft II/Accounts/[accountnr]/[accountnr2]/Replays/ ? my mac tester had trouble finding this folder too so if you enable sound do you hear "replay saved" voice? Sc2gears save the replay and than trigger me. The first thing the trigger does is writing "posttrigger" in the log so obvious hes never triggered... | ||
andrewSC23
United States25 Posts
July 03 2012 03:08 GMT
#1139
On July 03 2012 11:54 skeldark wrote: Show nested quote + On July 03 2012 11:47 andrewSC23 wrote: On July 02 2012 19:03 skeldark wrote: On July 01 2012 14:55 andrewSC23 wrote: Nothing in Help system messages.. And it says trigger running in the log when I start MMR Tool but it shows nothing as I am laddering.. Not mac! testet it and mac works fine. It must be the save of the replays. Sc2gear dont find the replay folder and dont trigger me . check the settings and the folder. On July 02 2012 12:29 InfCereal wrote: Hey Skeldark, my MMR just went down after a win, and then added an extra point at the end going back up. The finetune option didn't change it. I finetune games in the middle e.g. A B C. I look if i can adjust B depending on A and C. I could add an extra rule for the last game. In theories we even know how much you loose win if we know the opponent mmr. We know the real skill algorithm they use by now. ( there are not many out there and it was clear blizzard dont invent the wheel new...) On July 02 2012 16:27 fapy wrote: On July 02 2012 14:20 InfCereal wrote: On July 02 2012 12:40 Aristotle7 wrote: On July 02 2012 12:29 InfCereal wrote: Hey Skeldark, my MMR just went down after a win, and then added an extra point at the end going back up. The finetune option didn't change it. Isn't MMR gets calculated based on who you are playing against? So if the system decided to match you up versus a lower MMR despite previous win, nothing you can do, right? Yes, but your MMR should never drop on a win. From the FAQs My graph is wrong! i won a game and lost points or lost a game and got points! Its not wrong. Every point have a deviation. So you dont see your exact mmr., in most case this deviation is +-24. This explains the local mistakes. This kind of mistakes dont affect the graph. It stay local. InfCereal test a new version that includes an finetuner, that try to correct this mistakes. However he can not always do that. He try to correct it if he finds a mistake on both sites. E.g. A ( 1500) WIN --- B 1499 (WIN) - 1530 (LOOSE) I see that the WIN of -1 from A-B is to small The WIn from B-C 31 is too big So i can correct B to 1515 without problems because its in his range of +-24 and it will not affect the other points. A 1500 WIN B 1499 LOOSE C 1480 In this case the mistake is not so easy Its A to high B to fine and C to low Or A fine B to low C to low or A to high B to high C fine In such a case i will not correct to dont make follow up mistakes. On July 02 2012 15:23 meursault wrote: I really like what you're doing with this tool. I hope blizzard doesn't hide even more information and make this impossible in patch 1.5 I've gone 44 games above the diamond threshold and haven't been promoted. Is this pretty typical as it is struggling to determine which division I should be placed in. http://imgur.com/v7tUP I think the "average" of the promotion is way more complicated than moving avg. The hole server population follows gauss. But your skill do so too. Some people have a very small range. Means they are very consistent. Others are very inconsistent. To compare them the skill alg. allways use the lowest 2% skill of each player. So two guys on 1500 can have a total diffrent range above it. ![]() In this example natalia have a skill of 5 eric of 22. This 2 are extrema. In real they are not so different. I can not know this and its possible this one affects the promotion. In the end its not important. You are above the line = you have "diamond skill"- If you have the icon or not. On July 02 2012 15:23 meursault wrote: I really like what you're doing with this tool. I hope blizzard doesn't hide even more information and make this impossible in patch 1.5 Possible. But the main reason they invented the system this way is to hide this data from the average user. the average user is not her e on tl and download skill tracking tools. In the end they can not build their game against the community forever. I think they start to understand that they dont know better than we do what we want. or perhaps i just hope... This is what my log says when I start MMR Tools. When I ladder it doesn't change, although I just rerouted the folder in settings in SC2 gears on my mac to the actual folder where all my replays are. + Show Spoiler + 22:46:10 MMR-Stats 4.9 22:46:10 --------INIT START-------- 22:46:10 OK Encoding: UTF-8 is avalable on this System 22:46:10 OK Loading DB 22:46:12 OK DB up to date! 22:46:12 OK Settings loaded! 22:46:12 OK Gamedata: 0 Games loaded. 22:46:12 Mac-OS detected! 22:46:12 Disable Memoryreader... 22:46:12 Disable Gameobserver.... 22:46:12 OK Triggers ready! 22:46:12 OK Timeclient: Systemtime offset: 0 sec 22:46:13 OK: Program is up to date 22:46:13 --------INIT END-------- /users/[username]/Library/Application Support/Blizzard/StarCraft II/Accounts/[accountnr]/[accountnr2]/Replays/ ? my mac tester had trouble finding this folder too so if you enable sound do you hear "replay saved" voice? Sc2gears save the replay and than trigger me. The first thing the trigger does is writing "posttrigger" in the log so obvious hes never triggered... I rerouted it to that folder, yeah. Well /users/username/library/appsupport/bliz/sc2/accounts/accountn/Replays/Multiplayer... that's where all my replays are. Is that the wrong place to route them? I did hear the voice that said the replay was saved after changing the folder, but my log didn't change in MMR Tools. When I go to help>system messages it says the replay was successfully saved. | ||
skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
July 03 2012 03:13 GMT
#1140
On July 03 2012 12:08 andrewSC23 wrote: Show nested quote + On July 03 2012 11:54 skeldark wrote: On July 03 2012 11:47 andrewSC23 wrote: On July 02 2012 19:03 skeldark wrote: On July 01 2012 14:55 andrewSC23 wrote: Nothing in Help system messages.. And it says trigger running in the log when I start MMR Tool but it shows nothing as I am laddering.. Not mac! testet it and mac works fine. It must be the save of the replays. Sc2gear dont find the replay folder and dont trigger me . check the settings and the folder. On July 02 2012 12:29 InfCereal wrote: Hey Skeldark, my MMR just went down after a win, and then added an extra point at the end going back up. The finetune option didn't change it. I finetune games in the middle e.g. A B C. I look if i can adjust B depending on A and C. I could add an extra rule for the last game. In theories we even know how much you loose win if we know the opponent mmr. We know the real skill algorithm they use by now. ( there are not many out there and it was clear blizzard dont invent the wheel new...) On July 02 2012 16:27 fapy wrote: On July 02 2012 14:20 InfCereal wrote: On July 02 2012 12:40 Aristotle7 wrote: On July 02 2012 12:29 InfCereal wrote: Hey Skeldark, my MMR just went down after a win, and then added an extra point at the end going back up. The finetune option didn't change it. Isn't MMR gets calculated based on who you are playing against? So if the system decided to match you up versus a lower MMR despite previous win, nothing you can do, right? Yes, but your MMR should never drop on a win. From the FAQs My graph is wrong! i won a game and lost points or lost a game and got points! Its not wrong. Every point have a deviation. So you dont see your exact mmr., in most case this deviation is +-24. This explains the local mistakes. This kind of mistakes dont affect the graph. It stay local. InfCereal test a new version that includes an finetuner, that try to correct this mistakes. However he can not always do that. He try to correct it if he finds a mistake on both sites. E.g. A ( 1500) WIN --- B 1499 (WIN) - 1530 (LOOSE) I see that the WIN of -1 from A-B is to small The WIn from B-C 31 is too big So i can correct B to 1515 without problems because its in his range of +-24 and it will not affect the other points. A 1500 WIN B 1499 LOOSE C 1480 In this case the mistake is not so easy Its A to high B to fine and C to low Or A fine B to low C to low or A to high B to high C fine In such a case i will not correct to dont make follow up mistakes. On July 02 2012 15:23 meursault wrote: I really like what you're doing with this tool. I hope blizzard doesn't hide even more information and make this impossible in patch 1.5 I've gone 44 games above the diamond threshold and haven't been promoted. Is this pretty typical as it is struggling to determine which division I should be placed in. http://imgur.com/v7tUP I think the "average" of the promotion is way more complicated than moving avg. The hole server population follows gauss. But your skill do so too. Some people have a very small range. Means they are very consistent. Others are very inconsistent. To compare them the skill alg. allways use the lowest 2% skill of each player. So two guys on 1500 can have a total diffrent range above it. ![]() In this example natalia have a skill of 5 eric of 22. This 2 are extrema. In real they are not so different. I can not know this and its possible this one affects the promotion. In the end its not important. You are above the line = you have "diamond skill"- If you have the icon or not. On July 02 2012 15:23 meursault wrote: I really like what you're doing with this tool. I hope blizzard doesn't hide even more information and make this impossible in patch 1.5 Possible. But the main reason they invented the system this way is to hide this data from the average user. the average user is not her e on tl and download skill tracking tools. In the end they can not build their game against the community forever. I think they start to understand that they dont know better than we do what we want. or perhaps i just hope... This is what my log says when I start MMR Tools. When I ladder it doesn't change, although I just rerouted the folder in settings in SC2 gears on my mac to the actual folder where all my replays are. + Show Spoiler + 22:46:10 MMR-Stats 4.9 22:46:10 --------INIT START-------- 22:46:10 OK Encoding: UTF-8 is avalable on this System 22:46:10 OK Loading DB 22:46:12 OK DB up to date! 22:46:12 OK Settings loaded! 22:46:12 OK Gamedata: 0 Games loaded. 22:46:12 Mac-OS detected! 22:46:12 Disable Memoryreader... 22:46:12 Disable Gameobserver.... 22:46:12 OK Triggers ready! 22:46:12 OK Timeclient: Systemtime offset: 0 sec 22:46:13 OK: Program is up to date 22:46:13 --------INIT END-------- /users/[username]/Library/Application Support/Blizzard/StarCraft II/Accounts/[accountnr]/[accountnr2]/Replays/ ? my mac tester had trouble finding this folder too so if you enable sound do you hear "replay saved" voice? Sc2gears save the replay and than trigger me. The first thing the trigger does is writing "posttrigger" in the log so obvious hes never triggered... I rerouted it to that folder, yeah. Well /users/username/library/appsupport/bliz/sc2/accounts/accountn/Replays/Multiplayer... that's where all my replays are. Is that the wrong place to route them? I did hear the voice that said the replay was saved after changing the folder, but my log didn't change in MMR Tools. When I go to help>system messages it says the replay was successfully saved. wait a sec. he writes this into the log BUT he updates the log you see later.. there is a trick. If you close the program he saves the logfile. So check the log.txt file! | ||
| ||
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
RO8 Round Robin Group - Day 3
Bonyth vs Sziky
Dewalt vs Hawk
Hawk vs QiaoGege
Sziky vs Dewalt
Mihu vs Bonyth
Zhanhun vs QiaoGege
QiaoGege vs Fengzi
ZZZero.O258
[ Submit Event ] |
![]() StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War Dota 2 League of Legends Counter-Strike Super Smash Bros Heroes of the Storm Other Games Organizations |
FEL
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
Bonyth vs Zhanhun
Dewalt vs Mihu
Hawk vs Sziky
Sziky vs QiaoGege
Mihu vs Hawk
Zhanhun vs Dewalt
Fengzi vs Bonyth
Sparkling Tuna Cup
Online Event
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
The PondCast
Replay Cast
Korean StarCraft League
CranKy Ducklings
|
|